Sophomore Slumps

[Hunter368]

Last year we had an explosion of new amazing rookies in the NHL.

Aho, Nylander, Laine, Matthews, Murray, Tkachuk, Werenski, Marner just to name some of them, add whoever you like. Of course as fans we often have lofty and/unreasonable expectations of young players. That being said who has been a bit underwhelming to-date this year compared to your expectations? Let’s focus only on rookies from last year to keep our conversation focused.

I’ll start as a Jets fan Laine has been a bit underwhelming to-date imo. He intentionally added muscle and didn’t work on his skating like I would of liked/expected. Not sure about his conditioning, never been an a big issue but it will likely need to improve if this summer he focuses on skating. He has improved his defensive game which is great. He’s on par/pace for what I would expected roughly goals this year (40 ish) but is below what I would expect in points (64 points). I was expecting this year 40+ goals (on target) and total points roughly 75-85 (not on target).

Laine is currently sitting at 27 GP, 13 goals, 8 assists and 21 points.

Your turn.....

Click to read more...

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

Ryan Hartman

Had 19 goals in 76 games for Chicago last season.
On pace for 12 goals this season. (no goals since October 28)

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Mitch Marner and Will Nylander have slumped a bit though they are still awesome players.

 

[Hunter368]

Ryan Hartman

Had 19 goals in 76 games for Chicago last season.
On pace for 12 goals this season. (no goals since October 28)

Yeh he is a nice player last year, I would of thought 25+ goals this year would of been reasonable to expect. Hawks as a team are struggling a bit this year and some roster moves during the summer

Mitch Marner and Will Nylander have slumped a bit though they are still awesome players.

Agreed, I think most Leaf fans were expecting 70+ points from both this year. Both are below that pace, very low goals scored which is odd and I heard how Nylander has scored one 5vs5 goal all year which is very odd to me. Both I would of thought would of been candidates to get 65-75 points before the year started.

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

Nylander I feel is trying to do too much. Maybe he's trying to earn a big paycheck and he's squeezing his stick to tight. Still playing really well though and I'm sure he'll get red hot soon.

 

[naruto]

Nylander and marner have low s%

 

[Nithoniniel]

Nylander has had an odd year. Came out the gate looking absolutely terrific. Looking like he would be up there with Matthews for the team. It's just that game after game, the puck wouldn't go in for him. It obviously went to his head, because after a period like that he started to lose his game. He started to become a bit of a perimeter player, and was bobbling the puck and took forever to get a shot away. Only just recovering from that.

Marner didn't look like himself at all to start the year, but has been looking more like his usual self lately. Nothing is going in for him either at the moment, so I just hope it doesn't go to his head like it did for Nylander.

Laine really does look to have a rough year, despite the points. I actually liked him better last year. It would surprise me if skating isn't an area he focuses on next summer, so wouldn't surprise me if he explodes in his third season.

 

[Curufinwe]

Konecny.

 

[NHL Dude 120]

If Nylander and Marner go through the slump at least the leafs can save some money signing them.

 

[sparxx87]

Nylander has had an odd year. Came out the gate looking absolutely terrific. Looking like he would be up there with Matthews for the team. It's just that game after game, the puck wouldn't go in for him. It obviously went to his head, because after a period like that he started to lose his game. He started to become a bit of a perimeter player, and was bobbling the puck and took forever to get a shot away. Only just recovering from that.

Marner didn't look like himself at all to start the year, but has been looking more like his usual self lately. Nothing is going in for him either at the moment, so I just hope it doesn't go to his head like it did for Nylander.

Laine really does look to have a rough year, despite the points. I actually liked him better last year. It would surprise me if skating isn't an area he focuses on next summer, so wouldn't surprise me if he explodes in his third season.

Well said.

Nylander and Marner are just lacking confidence. Nylander in particular, early in the season, had goalies make a few great saves combined with a few posts and crossbars that really contributed to it. He isn’t aggressively trying to shoot the puck anymore, he’s trying to be too much of a playmaker, too cute at times.

He figured out a pretty good balance about midway through last season - hopefully history repeats itself.

 

[FlyTimmo]

Konecny.

I agree. I was hoping for more out of him this season, yet again, I'm sure with a competent coach and system he would be looking better.

 

[BruinLVGA]

Mitch Marner and Will Nylander have slumped a bit though they are still awesome players.

When I suggested in many threads before the season that there was a good chance of a slump (because they came in with such high total in their rookie year... getting to 70 points is difficult - only 19 players did it in 16-17, the chances of Matthews, Nylander and Marner all having 70 points is close to nil...) for 1, maybe 2 of the 3 rookies, it was indignant reactions from pretty much every Leafs fan. "Too much talent for a regression!", "They have experience now, they will have a better production!", "The sophomore slump doesn't exist", "Leafs hater", etc etc

Now, 1/3rd of the season in, Marner on pace for 47 points, Nylander for 58... While playing for a team that is performing even better than last year + in a season where points are way up on average too.
(So far) Validation feels great, yes sir.

 

[Nithoniniel]

When I suggested in many threads before the season that there was a good chance of a slump (because they came in with such high total in their rookie year... getting to 70 points is difficult - only 19 players did it in 16-17, the chances of Matthews, Nylander and Marner all having 70 points is close to nil...) for 1, maybe 2 of the 3 rookies, it was indignant reactions from pretty much every Leafs fan. "Too much talent for a regression!", "They have experience now, they will have a better production!", "The sophomore slump doesn't exist", "Leafs hater", etc etc

Now, 1/3rd of the season in, Marner on pace for 47 points, Nylander for 58... While playing for a team that is performing even better than last year + in a season where points are way up on average too.
(So far) Validation feels great, yes sir.

You can't really argue that there is a good chance of a slump because it's hard to hit 70 though. A sophomore slump is not the same as not improving. I also don't think that it's a good reason to look at it from the perspective of how rare the group would be. It makes much more sense to judge it on an individual basis. You're absolutely right that people were overestimating the chances that they take another step forward though.

Sophomore slump is just the name for the normal season-to-season variation when it occurs in their second season. Performances vary for all players, so that's nothing special for sophomores in general or these players in particular. Nylander also had a strong case that even with a similar performance, he'd get quite a bit more points. Marner and Matthews had no particular reason to expect regression.

I mean, you could argue that there's a solid chance that one of them has a slump just due to season-to-season variation, for sure.

 

[naruto]

When I suggested in many threads before the season that there was a good chance of a slump (because they came in with such high total in their rookie year... getting to 70 points is difficult - only 19 players did it in 16-17, the chances of Matthews, Nylander and Marner all having 70 points is close to nil...) for 1, maybe 2 of the 3 rookies, it was indignant reactions from pretty much every Leafs fan. "Too much talent for a regression!", "They have experience now, they will have a better production!", "The sophomore slump doesn't exist", "Leafs hater", etc etc

Now, 1/3rd of the season in, Marner on pace for 47 points, Nylander for 58... While playing for a team that is performing even better than last year + in a season where points are way up on average too.
(So far) Validation feels great, yes sir.

The fact that the Leafs are doing so well while Marner and Nylander are slumping is really telling. When Marner and Nylander turn it on, the Leafs are going to get even better.... scary for the rest of the NHL

 

[llamateizer]

Name	GP 16-17	Pts 16-17	p/g 16-17	p/g 17-18	diff
Ivan Barbashev	30	12	0.40	0 ( 6 games)	-0.40
Scott Wilson	78	26	0.33	0 (20 games)	-0.33
Fredrik Claesson	33	11	0.33	0.04 (24 games)	-0.29
Vinnie Hinostroza	49	14	0.29	0 (0 game)	-0.29
Troy Stecher	71	24	0.34	0.08 (13 games)	-0.26
Tony DeAngelo	39	14	0.36	0.13 (8 games)	-0.23
Mitchell Marner	77	61	0.79	0.57	-0.22
Brady Skjei	80	39	0.49	0.35	-0.14
Jake Guentzel	40	33	0.82	0.68	-0.14
Devin Shore	82	33	0.40	0.28	-0.12
Jake Dotchin	35	11	0.31	0.21	-0.10
Austin Czarnik	49	13	0.27	0.17	-0.10
Patrik Laine	73	64	0.88	0.78	-0.10
Artturi Lehkonen	73	28	0.38	0.28	-0.10
Nikita Zaitsev	82	36	0.44	0.36	-0.08
Travis Konecny	70	28	0.40	0.33	-0.07
Anthony Beauvillier	66	24	0.36	0.29	-0.07
Pavel Zacha	70	24	0.34	0.29	-0.05
Nick Jensen	49	13	0.27	0.22	-0.05
William Nylander	81	61	0.75	0.71	-0.04
Alan Quine	61	18	0.29	0.25	-0.04
Zach Werenski	78	47	0.60	0.56	-0.04
Jimmy Vesey	80	27	0.34	0.35	0.01
Matthew Tkachuk	76	48	0.63	0.65	0.02
Oliver Bjorkstrand	26	13	0.50	0.52	0.02
Connor Brown	82	36	0.44	0.46	0.02
Kevin Labanc	55	20	0.36	0.38	0.02
Scott Mayfield	25	9	0.36	0.38	0.02
Tanner Kero	47	16	0.34	0.38	0.04
Brendan Perlini	57	21	0.37	0.42	0.05
Drake Caggiula	60	18	0.30	0.37	0.07
Christian Dvorak	78	33	0.42	0.50	0.08
Ivan Provorov	82	30	0.37	0.48	0.11
Jesse Puljujarvi	28	8	0.29	0.40	0.11
Miles Wood	60	17	0.28	0.40	0.12
Ryan Hartman	76	31	0.41	0.54	0.13
Zach Hyman	82	28	0.34	0.50	0.16
Shea Theodore	34	9	0.26	0.42	0.16
Sebastian Aho	82	49	0.60	0.76	0.16
Anthony Mantha	60	36	0.60	0.81	0.21
Brock McGinn	57	16	0.28	0.50	0.22
Nick Schmaltz	61	28	0.46	0.70	0.24
Auston Matthews	82	69	0.84	1.08	0.24
Brayden Point	68	40	0.59	0.85	0.26
Pavel Buchnevich	41	20	0.49	0.76	0.27
Ondrej Kase	53	15	0.28	0.57	0.29
Mikko Rantanen	75	38	0.51	0.84	0.33
Kevin Fiala	54	16	0.30	0.65	0.35
Jakob Chychrun	68	20	0.29	1 (1 game)	0.71
Daniel Carr	33	9	0.27	2.00 (2 games)	1.73

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Kelly]

When I suggested in many threads before the season that there was a good chance of a slump (because they came in with such high total in their rookie year... getting to 70 points is difficult - only 19 players did it in 16-17, the chances of Matthews, Nylander and Marner all having 70 points is close to nil...) for 1, maybe 2 of the 3 rookies, it was indignant reactions from pretty much every Leafs fan. "Too much talent for a regression!", "They have experience now, they will have a better production!", "The sophomore slump doesn't exist", "Leafs hater", etc etc

Now, 1/3rd of the season in, Marner on pace for 47 points, Nylander for 58... While playing for a team that is performing even better than last year + in a season where points are way up on average too.
(So far) Validation feels great, yes sir.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to remember you talking about our whole team regressing, and more specifically our offense?

You used Nylander and Marner as prime candidates as to why we wouldn't score as much as we did last year, I think you also brought up Kadri? (Honestly I could be confusing you for somebody else). But if you look at the Leafs, their top in the league in GF again, and much to do without Nylander and Marner.

So, you may have been right about Marner (on-pace for 47pts) and Nylander (on-pace for 59 points) but were also off on the Leafs. So it may be fair to thump your chest over Marner and Nylander, who may fall short on matching their past seasons total, though it's still early. But in that case, you should probably admit that you were also wrong about the Leafs offense as a whole, as that was your main argument.

Like I said I could be mixing you up with another B's fan -- and I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'm fairly certain it was you.

 

[Beautvillier]

technically ho-sang is still a rookie but he hasn't been as impressive as he was last year

 

[SLAPSHOT723]

technically ho-sang is still a rookie but he hasn't been as impressive as he was last year

I disagree, I think he looks really good and he keeps getting better. Getting sent down to Bridgeport really helped.

Not that he had a stellar year in terms of production as a rookie, but Anthony Beauvillier isn't building on what he did last year. I was hoping for a bit more. I'm confident he'll turn it around.

 

[Beautvillier]

I disagree, I think he looks really good and he keeps getting better. Getting sent down to Bridgeport really helped.

Not that he had a stellar year in terms of production as a rookie, but Anthony Beauvillier isn't building on what he did last year. I was hoping for a bit more. I'm confident he'll turn it around.

i'm not saying i'm not liking his play so far, i think he's been way better in his own zone since getting sent down. but he hasn't been as dominant as he was last year.

 

[jetsforever]

Laine, Nylander, Marner are all good examples of guys who have looked off at times

 

[Weezeric]

Laine, Nylander, Marner are all good examples of guys who have looked off at times

It may be a big benefit to their teams in the long run, especially since team wise they're still doing well. Could turn long term contracts from 8-10M to 6-7M

 

[SLAPSHOT723]

i'm not saying i'm not liking his play so far, i think he's been way better in his own zone since getting sent down. but he hasn't been as dominant as he was last year.

I suppose, but he's also playing a 3rd line role with a snakebitten Brock as opposed to a top-6 role. I agree he's not dominating, but I'm very encouraged by his play.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

When I suggested in many threads before the season that there was a good chance of a slump (because they came in with such high total in their rookie year... getting to 70 points is difficult - only 19 players did it in 16-17, the chances of Matthews, Nylander and Marner all having 70 points is close to nil...) for 1, maybe 2 of the 3 rookies, it was indignant reactions from pretty much every Leafs fan. "Too much talent for a regression!", "They have experience now, they will have a better production!", "The sophomore slump doesn't exist", "Leafs hater", etc etc

Now, 1/3rd of the season in, Marner on pace for 47 points, Nylander for 58... While playing for a team that is performing even better than last year + in a season where points are way up on average too.
(So far) Validation feels great, yes sir.

you said there was a good chance of the Leafs regressing (including Matthews) and Boston finishing ahead of them. No need to pat yourself on the back like this when you got so much wrong

 

[cgf]

Mikko Rantanen looks off. His #s are still great...8 goals & 21 points in 25 games; pacing for 26 goals & 69 points...but he's not been as assertive or dynamic with the puck as he was last season and he's flubbing passes that he could catch without even looking a year ago. MacK is playing so well & the team is so much better that Mikko's totals will improve on his rookie #s, even if he doesn't start playing more like he did last season; but so far the sophomore slump seems to be hitting Rantanen as well.

 

[cgf]

Mikko Rantanen looks off. His #s are still great...8 goals & 21 points in 25 games; pacing for 26 goals & 69 points...but he's not been as assertive or dynamic with the puck as he was last season and he's flubbing passes that he could catch without even looking a year ago. MacK is playing so well & the team is so much better that Mikko's totals will improve on his rookie #s, even if he doesn't start playing more like he did last season; but so far the sophomore slump seems to be hitting Rantanen as well.