Sobotka returning? (lol, no)

[Oberyn]

How you guys value Sobotka currenlty? Has he been good addition? In this thread there has been so many posters who didn't want Sobotka join in the team in any way.

His game last night against Calgary was his best yet. Played with a lot of chippiness and made good plays in the offensive zone. I think he's been fine for the most part, it looked like he was still adjusting back to the NHL size rink.

 

[Splatter]

This thread.

I always valued Sobotka and defended him, so I'm happy old criticism and bitterness isn't prevalent like before. He seems to be forgiven by fans for the most part. He's proven to be a great asset. I think his chippiness from his first run is missed, but we've seen glimpses of it here and there. He's a better player than before. For some, I think it's hard or slow to accept that or let go of seeing him in his role from a long time ago. I roll my eyes at the occasional mock lines that bump him, Stastny, or Steen down for hyped up youngsters. Balance as the reason is fine. I'm not sure though why the shortcomings of kids get overlooked by some, but proven commodities must immediately get demoted after a bad or quiet game. Not ideally a top six guy with a totally healthy roster, but he's been more than adequate in the meantime. Some chemistry with Stastny seems to be forming, which is an unexpected surprise.

 

[Brian39]

I've been happy so far. He looked great last night and I'm in the group that was happy with his play before last night. I think his points pace is a touch higher than his play warrants, but I'd be surprised if he doesn't finish in the high 40s or low 50s if he plays a full season. I also think that he is much more likely to play a full season under his current play style than under his old wrecking ball style.

Away from the puck, I'd much rather have current Sobotka than Perron. He hasn't been a stud defensively so far, but I don't think he has been a liability either. The chemistry with Stastny has been a nice surprise and I think supports the argument that he isn't simply a passenger pickybacking points off Tarasenko. He has a lot of primary assists and almost all of them haven't been to Vlad. Stastny is certainly a good player too, but not everyone has chemistry with him.

 

[Mike Liut]

He was much better last night. He must have read my posts criticizing his physical play

 

[bluesman11]

I think he could be quite an asset by the playoffs, it's been ten games and he's definitely not embarrassing himself, and when things get turned up, I just hope The Blues are healthy come the playoffs.

 

[Bye Felicia]

When it comes to points, we should have reasonable expectations. In his four seasons with the Blues prior to going to the KHL, his PPG was 0.41. I don't think he has ever produced at the level of a top-6 forward (even though he is occupying such a role currently due to injuries), and it's not fair to expect that level of production.

 

[Brian39]

When it comes to points, we should have reasonable expectations. In his four seasons with the Blues prior to going to the KHL, his PPG was 0.41. I don't think he has ever produced at the level of a top-6 forward (even though he is occupying such a role currently due to injuries), and it's not fair to expect that level of production.

I disagree that it's unfair to expect top 6 production. He is paid low end top 6 money and has clearly altered his game to play a more skilled/offensive oriented style. If he isn't going to be the gritty forecheck machine he used to be in favor of that style, then the expectation needs to be that he effectively plays a top 6 offensive role. I'm fine with the guy playing a 'safer' style to protect his long term health, but only if he can change his game to still provide the value expected with a $3.5 mil cap hit for 3 years.

If he can't produce like a 6th offensive forward, then he will need to return to his reckless style or I will view him as underachieving.

 

[STL fan in MN]

From what I’ve seen from Sobi so far this season, he’s going to have to regress significantly to be described as “underachieving” IMO. I’ve always loved Sobi and think many underrate him. He’s one of those glue guys. The guy that stirs the drink. Brings so much to the table besides putting up pts...and so far this season he’s putting up pts too.

With a fully healthy lineup, he’s ideally a 3rd liner but he’s an excellent 3rd liner and clearly the best option to fill in the top-6 with Fabbri out IMO. Just imagine who they’d have to go with in the top-6 role today if Sobi wasn’t here.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Fearless for his size.

"Honey badger don't care!"

 

[Bye Felicia]

I disagree that it's unfair to expect top 6 production. He is paid low end top 6 money and has clearly altered his game to play a more skilled/offensive oriented style. If he isn't going to be the gritty forecheck machine he used to be in favor of that style, then the expectation needs to be that he effectively plays a top 6 offensive role. I'm fine with the guy playing a 'safer' style to protect his long term health, but only if he can change his game to still provide the value expected with a $3.5 mil cap hit for 3 years.

If he can't produce like a 6th offensive forward, then he will need to return to his reckless style or I will view him as underachieving.

The cost per point in the NHL is often considered to be $100k/point, and honestly that metric is outdated by now and the cost per point is higher. But if we do go by that metric, Sobotka is being paid to put up 35 points, which is about what he averaged in his previous stint with the team. $3.5 million is not top 6 money in today's league. Berglund makes $3.85 million--do you also expect him to produce like a top 6 forward?

 

[Majorityof1]

I disagree with the cost per point metric at all. Points should not cost the same. There are more guys who can put up 30 points than there are 70. As such, market pressure should mean it costs more to go from 20-30 than from 60-70. If you graph salary vs points, it should not be a straight line but should get steeper at higher level. IMO, $3.5M is overpaid for 35 points unless they bring a lot of other things.

 

[Brian39]

The cost per point in the NHL is often considered to be $100k/point, and honestly that metric is outdated by now and the cost per point is higher. But if we do go by that metric, Sobotka is being paid to put up 35 points, which is about what he averaged in his previous stint with the team. $3.5 million is not top 6 money in today's league. Berglund makes $3.85 million--do you also expect him to produce like a top 6 forward?

I completely agree with Majority's take about the $100k/point metric. One 70 point player is worth significantly more than two 40 point players and it is silly to say that the GM paying a 70 point player $7 mil and a 10 point player $1 mil is doing no better than the GM who paid two 40 point guys $4 mil each.

I don't expect Bergie to produce like a top 6 forward, but I've also been vocally critical of that contract since day 1. Additionally, this brings me back to the point I made about Sobotka. I can tolerate the Bergie contract when he doesn't produce like a top 6 forward because he brings a lot of other things to the table. He is an exceptional possession player and he played a much more physical game last year than usual. Moreover, even though the assists are lacking, he has scored goals like a top 6 player the last couple years. To sum up, he does other things besides offensive production to justify his contract.

My point with Sobotka is that so far this season, he has not. His possession metrics have been bad and his high danger chance percentage is the worst on the team. In order to be a good use of $3.5 mil in space (with term), he needs to return to the old Sobotka away from the puck or continue producing at a 50ish point pace. A 35 point player who allows 3 high danger chances for every 2 he's on the ice for is not a good use of that space.

 

[EastonBlues22]

The $100k per point was a rough rule of thumb for what represented a "fair value" contract for a UFA. High end guys should be expected to get more on the open market due to market pressures (little supply with a lot of demand), and low end guys earning that are generally "overpaid" because it shouldn't be overly hard to find/replace low-end production at below market prices (by youngsters on ELCs or their second contracts, older vets on year-to-year deals, reclamation projects, etc.).

It's never been a good benchmark for RFAs, and any team that contentedly fills out their bottom six with contracts of that ilk is doing it wrong. Having one or two guys like that won't kill you if you don't have better ways to use your cap space, but locking into too many of those contracts in is a clear hindrance and it's a cinch that you'll be wishing you hadn't before they run out.