Smoke and Mirrors

[GoonieFace]

I understand its only July 4th, but his is what this offseason has been so far, and frankly i'm surprised how many people are content and even excited with the offseason up to this point. Granted things can change but I doubt they will in any significant manner.

The Leafs were a team that was consistenty outworked and outplayed last year and relied on brilliant goaltending and shootout wins. A recipe for disaster, which we witnessed first hand.

They have managed to fix, but not necessarily significantly improve their bottom 6. They should be more difficult to play against, but not to the point where I think its make a huge difference.

This team needs a shakeup in the top 6 of their team and also their overall defence. They have not added any significant pieces to this. They basically made a lateral move from Gunnarsson to Polak and added an ancient and ofter injured Robidas.

Nonis and Co. tried to spend stupid money this year, but as luck may have it, they were not able to get the deals done. Imagine we signed Brian Boyle or Legwand to $3-$4 million/year? Or acquired Gorges at $4 million.

Contrary to belief, Nonis has not gotten smarter about handing our anchor contracts, he was just fortunate they never came to fruition.

Leaf fans, enjoy another 9th or 10th place finish in the East and miss out on one of the strongest drafts in years. In order to get good in this league, you have to suck first, and for some reason Leaf management refuses to accept this.

This being said, I hope im dead wrong and this team surprises us, but im not counting on it.

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[SprDaVE]

I understand its only July 4th

I stopped there.

 

[Joey Hoser]

How is it smoke and mirrors? How are we being deceived here? The moves speak for themselves.

I'm happy we filled our roster without doing anything stupid. That's about all you can ask for on July 1st these days. Its not like we could have signed Getzlaf. We didn't fail at anything here.

 

[GoonieFace]

How is it smoke and mirrors? How are we being deceived here? The moves speak for themselves.

I'm happy we filled our roster without doing anything stupid. That's about all you can ask for on July 1st these days. Its not like we could have signed Getzlaf. We didn't fail at anything here.

This is my whole point. They tried to make stupid moves and failed. These secondary moves were merely a result of that.

 

[sommervr]

Everything OP said is true

As for optimism this board self selects for that. All the realists and rationalists are too busy drinking to post.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, of course. But I fail to see how adding all this toughness and character is a bad thing in any way, shape or form. We have plenty of scoring on this team - we certainly don't need any more. What is needed, are guys who are tenacious and hard to play against. That was our biggest shortcoming last year. I think we've addressed that in spades.

No "smoke & mirrors" at all.

More like smart, inexpensive moves.

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

Yeah there's no deception here. Nonis and Shanahan have made it clear that they think the team is really a good playoff team that just happened to get profoundly unlucky 2-3 years in a row. All they needed is more hard work/compete/hustle/bustle/gristle. Talent is obviously not an issue to them.

If you buy into this narrative (lol) you should be pleased. If you are already resigned to this team being average at best and terrible at worst, then you can at least be satisfied that Nonis didn't sign any truly outrageous AAV contracts, even if Komarov is pretty obviously an overpayment.

 

[Mess]

Contrary to belief, Nonis has not gotten smarter about handing our anchor contracts, he was just fortunate they never came to fruition

Two things I picked up yesterday on TSN and that was they reported that Shanahan does NOT believe in rebuilding through free agency.

So despite the myriad of moves they have all been small/minor in nature and short-term stop gap measures only. So these were not made to propel the team ahead, but to more stabilize it at present, and make it a little harder to play against with added depth support, trying to bring back some of the components that made them successful in the lockout year.

Nonis was also quoted as saying "he has work to do yet this summer", implying that he is working on trades to reshape the team for next season. The first wave of UFA signings are over and now teams are re-evaluating their positions.

So there isn't any smoke and mirrors here where management is selling this as complete nor competitive based on transactions to date.

 

[GoonieFace]

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, of course. But I fail to see how adding all this toughness and character is a bad thing in any way, shape or form. We have plenty of scoring on this team - we certainly don't need any more. What is needed, are guys who are tenacious and hard to play against. That was our biggest shortcoming last year. I think we've addressed that in spades.

No "smoke & mirrors" at all.

More like smart, inexpensive moves.

I never said it was a bad thing. They needed to upgrade that for sure. But they failed to see the big picture and that's the lack of high end talent on this team. The "core" players on this team are simply not the type of players you can build a true winner around. I would rather see this team fail for a few years and acquire such talent in the draft, since trading for it would be difficult.

 

[GoonieFace]

Two things I picked up yesterday on TSN and that was they reported that Shanahan does NOT believe in rebuilding through free agency.

So despite the myriad of moves they have all been small/minor in nature and short-term stop gap measures only. So these were not made to propel the team ahead, but to more stabilize it at present, and make it a little harder to play against with added depth support, trying to bring back some of the components that made them successful in the lockout year.

Nonis was also quoted as saying "he has work to do yet this summer", implying that he is working on trades to reshape the team for next season. The first wave of UFA signings are over and now teams are re-evaluating their positions.

So there isn't any smoke and mirrors here where management is selling this as complete nor competitive based on transactions to date.

See this is exactly my point. They wanted to sign Bolland, Brian Boyle, acquire Josh Gorges. They would have paid $4 million/year or more for all these guys, but as fate would have it, they didnt work out.

So for Shanahan to say they wont build through free agency is nonsense. They tried and failed, so they settled for plan B. Sign a bunch of guys for 1 year contracts, which should have been their strategy from day one.

 

[Holymakinaw]

The "core" players on this team are simply not the type of players you can build a true winner around.

Says you. Many disagree. Our star players ALWAYS seem to be crucially flawed, in the eyes of some Leaf fans.

Kessel, JVR, Kadri, Rielly, Gardiner, Bernier and now Nylander are JUST as good as other team's stars/budding stars, in spite of this feeling of inadequacy you have.

 

[Joey Hoser]

I honestly think this has been setup as a last chance for the core. They've surrounded them with solid, two-way depth forwards on movable contracts and with a more sensible-if-not-upgraded defense.

If they can't get it done this year, I firmly believe its over for this group. If it doesn't look good in February I expect the bomb to be dropped.

 

[SprDaVE]

I honestly think this has been setup as a last chance for the core. They've surrounded them with solid, two-way depth forwards on movable contracts and with a more sensible-if-not-upgraded defense.

If they can't get it done this year, I firmly believe its over for this group. If it doesn't look good in February I expect the bomb to be dropped.

I also expect this. If they can't be competitive by around February, a couple weeks before the deadline. I see the Nonis and his buddies to get the axe and the new GM will have the mandate to clean house. I don't see many players sticking around other then the blue chippers and the young players that have played well.

 

[Kubus]

One can call it letting the kids play while surrounding them with some solid hard working vets. Another person can call that smoke and mirrors.

 

[ULF_55]

Says you. Many disagree. Our star players ALWAYS seem to be crucially flawed, in the eyes of some Leaf fans.

Kessel, JVR, Kadri, Rielly, Gardiner, Bernier and now Nylander are JUST as good as other team's stars/budding stars, in spite of this feeling of inadequacy you have.

Two things I picked up yesterday on TSN and that was they reported that Shanahan does NOT believe in rebuilding through free agency.

Nonis was also quoted as saying "he has work to do yet this summer", implying that he is working on trades to reshape the team for next season. The first wave of UFA signings are over and now teams are re-evaluating their positions.

Kessel, Bozak, Rielly, Nylander, Bernier, Komarov, Kontiola, Santorelli, Robida, Polak would appear to be safe. These were the core guys previously identified and the new signings brought in the change the culture.

Obviously, everyone else is in play.

As pointed out above, Nonis (Shanahan) isn't finished so guys not identified will be used to make the changes necessary to make the team into a winner.

There isn't anyone outside of those few in paragraph 1 that can't be easily replaced with character players. Skill alone doesn't win Cups.

 

[Mess]

See this is exactly my point. They wanted to sign Bolland, Brian Boyle, acquire Josh Gorges. They would have paid $4 million/year or more for all these guys, but as fate would have it, they didnt work out.

So for Shanahan to say they wont build through free agency is nonsense. They tried and failed, so they settled for plan B. Sign a bunch of guys for 1 year contracts, which should have been their strategy from day one.

They wanted to keep Bolland because they liked his leadership and his character on and off the ice.. When his asking price got too high >$5 mil the Leafs made a good business decision and walked away.

They tried to acquire Josh Gorges in trade as a stabilizing piece for the defense by adding a solid defense first player.. They were offering Franson who is likely scheduled to be heading to arbitration and likely a big pay day ahead. Franson lead the Leafs defense in scoring the past 2 seasons and his arbitration award might not be much different then Josh Gorges salary. Gorges is a guarantee whereas Franson is not controllable at present as a 3rd party likely to decide his value. Shanny doesn't have an issue with trades to attempt to improve the team or change the dynamics.

Brian Bolyle was intended as Bolland replacement for the 3rd line as a backup plan. He got 3 years X $2 mil in TB and that would hardly be breaking the bank, but rather adding a player that played in the Stanley Cup finals last year and fill a 3rd line hole short term.

Players like Kontiola and Santorelli are not Plan A nor Plan B but further backup plans to replace departed players like Raymond ($3 mil), Kulemin ($4 mil), Bolland ($5.5 mil), and McClement ($1 mil) and replace bottom 9 forwards with cheaper and shorter term contracts because they were not willing to overpay to keep them.

So there is no smoke and mirrors trying to sell Leaf Nation a bill of goods here that the moves they made were done to make the Leafs a playoff contender but simply smart business moves and a few low risk (cost and term) transactions that could pay off. If these players don't work out they won't be here the following year.

What you're seeing is patience and non panic moves which Leaf Nation is not use to these type of practices during their current rebuild plan previously. This is what you do if building through the draft is your true long-term goal.

 

[CellarDweller0]

The biggest & best moves this team made was not necessarily getting better players but get different players while not over paying. We all saw how having one rhd and soft players hurt this team last year, these moves appear to address those deficiencies. No one is proclaiming these moves to be the silver bullet to solve all our woes.

 

[ACC1224]

I honestly think this has been setup as a last chance for the core. They've surrounded them with solid, two-way depth forwards on movable contracts and with a more sensible-if-not-upgraded defense.

If they can't get it done this year, I firmly believe its over for this group. If it doesn't look good in February I expect the bomb to be dropped.

This seems like a pretty reasonable expectation.

 

[Daisy Jane]

I also expect this. If they can't be competitive by around February, a couple weeks before the deadline. I see the Nonis and his buddies to get the axe and the new GM will have the mandate to clean house. I don't see many players sticking around other then the blue chippers and the young players that have played well.

well let's look at the evidence (best Gill Grissom voice).

Shanahan said that some people always tell you to blow it up but sometimes it takes just moving in and out some pieces to fully see what you have.

then Shanahan said the way that players show up to camp will speak a lot of how much they are committed into being Leafs. - i think this is so key and very subtle because most people just pooh-poohed this). I think if people are not fit and healthy, and ready to compete (drink!) or if people hold out for obscene monies (maybe Franson?) they will not be long for this team.

I honestly think it's a sink or swim season for a lot of people. If we don't make the playoffs - Nonis, Carlyle is gone. (I think if we make the playoffs and are horrid, they are gone, so i don't even think that's a saving grace). If we're really bad - I believe that Phaneuf, Lupul will see their way off the team, as well as Kessel (but i could totally see that more as a draft day bonanaza package). (I also think that's why a lot of people signed recently are only for 1-4 years. Leo's the longest at 4, then Robidas and everyone else is at 1, which leaves plenty of room for NewGM to make moves w/o having to be committed to a lot).

And - not to make this into a Oh My God, we're going to trade Kadri derailment thread- I don't think he is so safe either and I don't even think it's because of his talent. (In fact, in fairness - I think his talent is what saved him to be honest because the Leafs are very devoid of it at center). But I keep thinking about the story i heard regarding Bowman and Yzerman (basically how Yzerman used to be this one trick pony and all about scoring goals, and Bowman was like you can be a one trick pony - or you can shore up your game and counted on for more than that, and Yzerman did that and basically became Yzerman). I think Shanahan is going to look at how Kadri plays in every facet of the game including work ethic and willingness to just apply everything and if it doesn't click in or they don't like what they see - i can see them trading him away to get players who WILL buy into that.

(You sort of got that impression regarding why they picked Nylander and Shanahan smirked about all the rumours of him being lazy, a diva etc. he was like good that people believed it because we did did our work to see if it were true and it simply isn't.) so Kadri's skill or what he will develop into is not going to be in question this season - it's going to be his impression.

people want to cry smoke and mirrors or lateral moves etc - i think Shanahan flat out said what he intends to do with his comments etc. but it's just not going to be "poof! and it's there. he said he's methodical - ergo i think a lot of actions will be methodical in nature imo.

 

[Mess]

Kessel, Bozak, Rielly, Nylander, Bernier, Komarov, Kontiola, Santorelli, Robida, Polak would appear to be safe. These were the core guys previously identified and the new signings brought in the change the culture.

Obviously, everyone else is in play.

As pointed out above, Nonis (Shanahan) isn't finished so guys not identified will be used to make the changes necessary to make the team into a winner.

There isn't anyone outside of those few in paragraph 1 that can't be easily replaced with character players. Skill alone doesn't win Cups.

I don't think Shanny nor Nonis have any illusions this is a finished product by a long shot, in fact likely recognize that there is still lots of work ahead.. You can't turn and small, soft rush team into and big, possession team over night.

Any armchair GM can tell you the Leafs need a top pairing Dman and they lack a true #1C and until that happens they will be pretenders and not contenders. Heck Phaneuf is being shopped so they might in fact be looking for 2 and/or buying time for Rielly (untouchables list) to develop.

The moves that they have made are not being sold as "propelling the team forward" but rather "culture change" transactions to attempt to fix the compete level and push back components of a team that set a record for shots against last year and got outworked and outplayed regularly. Players like Komarov, Polak and Robidas address that missing component, because they don't roll over and in fact draw players into the battle with them.

Phase #1 stabilize (in progress).
Phase #2 (under construction TBD) trade and develop to improve the team.
Phase #3 (build long term through the draft process).

 

[Deebo]

We really don't know what was actually to offered Bolland, we have Dreger saying they leafs weren't willing to go beyond 5x5, that's it.

We don't know if they offered him that or if they were even willing to offer that.

 

[Teeder9]

I never said it was a bad thing. They needed to upgrade that for sure. But they failed to see the big picture and that's the lack of high end talent on this team. The "core" players on this team are simply not the type of players you can build a true winner around. I would rather see this team fail for a few years and acquire such talent in the draft, since trading for it would be difficult.

This is all you should have said, instead of anything you said in the OP. Far too many hide behind the bs and post 5 different things before ever getting to the real thought behind their first post. Just say it and go from there

 

[Mess]

We really don't know what was actually to offered Bolland, we have Dreger saying they leafs weren't willing to go beyond 5x5, that's it.

We don't know if they offered him that or if they were even willing to offer that.

It was reported they were not prepared to go longer than 5 years and not more than $5 mil.

TSN tossed out $4.95 X 5 was the top limit they were prepared to go and thought that was an overpayment, but willing to accept it to keep Bolland around. They claimed Leafs did submit 5 year $22.5 mil offer (AAV $4.5 mil) that Bolland rejected, and were uncertain if the $4.95 mil was ever formalized once Bolland was in talks with Florida.

 

[Deebo]

It was reported they were not prepared to go longer than 5 years and not more than $5 mil.

That's exactly what I said

It sounded like speculation to me and there's no actual proof of that even went that high with a formal offer.

 

[janesy12]

I understand its only July 4th, but his is what this offseason has been so far, and frankly i'm surprised how many people are content and even excited with the offseason up to this point. Granted things can change but I doubt they will in any significant manner.

The Leafs were a team that was consistenty outworked and outplayed last year and relied on brilliant goaltending and shootout wins. A recipe for disaster, which we witnessed first hand.

They have managed to fix, but not necessarily significantly improve their bottom 6. They should be more difficult to play against, but not to the point where I think its make a huge difference.

This team needs a shakeup in the top 6 of their team and also their overall defence. They have not added any significant pieces to this. They basically made a lateral move from Gunnarsson to Polak and added an ancient and often injured Robidas.

Nonis and Co. tried to spend stupid money this year, but as luck may have it, they were not able to get the deals done. Imagine we signed Brian Boyle or Legwand to $3-$4 million/year? Or acquired Gorges at $4 million.

Contrary to belief, Nonis has not gotten smarter about handing our anchor contracts, he was just fortunate they never came to fruition.

Leaf fans, enjoy another 9th or 10th place finish in the East and miss out on one of the strongest drafts in years. In order to get good in this league, you have to suck first, and for some reason Leaf management refuses to accept this.

This being said, I hope im dead wrong and this team surprises us, but im not counting on it.

Before last season when he had his leg broken (twice), he had seasons of 48 (lockout season), 75, 81, 82, 72, 82, 75, 75, 45 (lockout year)....... As a defenseman who blocks quite a few shots and plays like a warrior I wouldn't exactly call him "often injured"......