WC: Slovakia 2023 Roster Talk
- Thread starter Antiillafire
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jcbio11
Registered User
I still like our chances. A day off and then what should be two easy games. We outshot Kazakhstan like crazy, credit, where credit is due though, they played great and then they were amazing in SO.
Latvia meanwhile has the feisty Kazakhs tomorrow and then they still need to take at least a point of off Switzerland.
Latvia meanwhile has the feisty Kazakhs tomorrow and then they still need to take at least a point of off Switzerland.
As I explained in another thread, the odds of Slovakia beating both Norway and Slovenia in regulation are only about 59%, giving Latvia a 41% chance of beating Kazakhstan in regulation being their ticket to the QFs with an extra 15% chance of making it anyway (if Slovakia beats both SLO/NOR) by getting that one point vs. the Swiss, making Latvia the net favorites to make fhe play-offs, especially if they do get 3 points vs. a tired Kazakhstan this evening.
SoundAndFury
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Not really sure why does it warrant going over multiple threads repeating it. Most people like 60-40 chances in their favor, you are somehow making it seem like Latvia is the actual favorite. They very clearly are not, by your very own math.
Eye of Ra
Grandmaster General of the International boards
buddy wake up, slovakia is on whole other level than Latvia
SoundAndFury
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I don't think you understood the math, it's not 60/40 in their favor, the odds are slightly favoring Latvia right now and turning roughly 61/39 in favor of Latvia if they beat Kazakhstan in regulation.
Fjorden
Registered User
It's more like 90/10 for Slovakia taking the last QF spot.
Slovakia very likely take 6 points against Norway and Slovenia. Slovakia have Latvia on head to head.
Switzerland wins against Latvia, Kazakhstan can also be tricky for Latvia but I think Latvia will win.
SoundAndFury
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I don't think you understand the math then... At this very moment, odds for two Slovakian regulation wins are 1,65. The odds on Latvia winning against Kazakhstan in regulation and getting at least a point against Swiss are 3,42. And to you those somehow work out to 50/50, what?
1,65 = 3,42? Fascinating.At this very moment, odds on Latvia getting a point against Swiss alone are 2,46. Meaning even a win against Kazakhs tonight does not make Latvians favorites as 1,65 is much less than 2,46. In that case, Slovakia would remain almost exactly 60/40 favorites which, I thought, without reading your post carefully, you had in mind. Now, please correct my math. Like seriously, this is getting embarrassing at this point. Or are you just coming up with those odds yourself in which case Latvia is always the favorite? Any numpty can fact-check this with ease in less than a minute by going to the webpage of any betting site and selecting relative events.
Because if it's anyone's best guess then sure. I say 60/40 in favor of Slovakia because I'm an optimist and I trust Latvia to win against Kazakhs today. You say 50/50 because I don't know, you are a Latvian, maybe? Fjorden says 90/10 because he obviously doesn't believe in Latvians all that much. Everyone has opinions, however, odds indicate some are more correct than others.
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It's basic probability theory based on bookie odds. It's OK not to get it, barely anyone uses that in their daily lives.I don't think you understand the math then... At this very moment, odds for two Slovakian regulation wins are 1,65. The odds on Latvia winning against Kazakhstan in regulation and getting at least a point against Swiss are 3,42. And to you those somehow work out to 50/50, what?
At this very moment, odds on Latvia getting a point against Swiss alone are 2,46. Meaning even a win against Kazakhs tonight does not make Latvians favorites as 1,65 is much less than 2,46. In that case, Slovakia would remain almost exactly 60/40 favorites which, I thought, without reading your post carefully, you had in mind. Now, please correct my math. Like seriously, this is getting embarrassing at this point. Or are you just coming up with those odds yourself in which case Latvia is always the favorite? Any numpty can fact-check this with ease in less than a minute by going to the webpage of any betting site and selecting relative events.
Because if it's anyone's best guess then sure. I say 60/40 in favor of Slovakia because I'm an optimist and I trust Latvia to win against Kazakhs today. You say 50/50 because I don't know, you are a Latvian, maybe? Fjorden says 90/10 because he obviously doesn't believe in Latvians all that much. Everyone has opinions, however, odds indicate some are more correct than others.
You just have to correct for the bookie 'take' first, as the odds and their implied probabilities do not add up to 100% if you look at the 1x2 or 12 odds.
The implied probability of Slovakia beating NOR/SLO in regular time is roughly 60%, let's round it up.
*IF* that happens, Latvia has an implied probability of 34% of taking at least point against the Swiss. So roughly 1 in 3 times Slovakia will not make the QFs even if that 60% probability does go through. 0.6×0.66=39.6%. If they lose at least a point against Slovenia or Norway (40% chance), they still make the QFs, if Latvia do not defeat Kazakhstan in regulation (25%).
0.4×0.25=10% 39.6%+10%=49.6% chance of qualifying for Slovakia as of this point and time.
For Latvia it's (0.4×0.75)+(0.6×0.34)=50.4%
If Latvia defeats Kazakhstan, it's 60.4%
If Fjorden thinks it's 90/10 for Slovakia, the Kelly criterion dictates he should invest a good share of his life savings on the next two Slovakian games, as the bookie odds have to be wildly inaccurate.
SoundAndFury
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Stopped reading after this... where on earth are you getting this from.
You do realize that according to bookies the probability of Slovakia beating Norway is higher than Latvia beating Kazakhstan, right? Not to mention that, according to you, ~1,3 odds on Slovakia in that game implicate "roughly 60%" chance
Hilarious. And I'm the one who doesn't get math.Maybe stop rounding things up.. And don't quit your day job.
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Win over Slovenia in regular time 1.30
Win over Norway in regular time 1.36
1.30×1.36=1.77
(1/1.77)×100=56.5%
It's actually lower now.
Source: oddsportal or any betting site offering odds on ice hockey
It's really not that hard to convert decimal odds to %probabilities.
SoundAndFury
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Nevermind, I assumed you meant the single game NOR/SLO as in Norway - Slovakia. Thanks Slovenia.
So, going back to it, chances for Latvia to get 4 points needed to overtake Slovakia are:
1,39 x 2.46 = 3,42
(1/3,42) x 100 = 29%
Meaning at this point the odds for Slovakia to make it are roughly twice as good (56.5% vs 29% in this concrete scenario). If Latvians win against Kazakhstan, it will still be roughly 60-40 in their favor ((1/1.77)×100 vs (1/2.46)×100). So what on freaking Earth are you trying to prove here.
Yes, the chances of Slovakia picking up 6 points are "only" 55-60% but that doesn't indicate their chances to reach QF, you need to compare that to all the possible outcomes on the Latvian side.
It's honestly absolutely baffling how you are trying to prove 1,65 (or be it 1,77) odds are just as good/bad as 3,42. Insane. And yes, conversions are definitely not THE issue here.
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You don't understand conditional probabilities.
All the outcomes and conditional outcomes were included in the calculations.
It's not 1.77 vs. 3.42.
1.77 is conditional. The Latvian part of that is ~2.15. You are entirely lost in your calculations.
SoundAndFury
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Sure thing. Yet when I want to bet on those outcomes it's exactly 1,7 vs 3,42. The odds on Latvia getting a point against Swiss are still 2,46 (and might actually go up even higher after today's results). But yes, Latvia has around 50% chance to qualify, absolutely. Math.
Now I'm starting to think you're just not very sharp, because all of this is not very complicated at all.
The odds of 1.77 have an implied probability of 56%. The other side of the coin of that is 44%. Not 3.42. There are no odds published on those 44%.
The 3.42 is conditional on the 1.77 odds.
SoundAndFury
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"Other side" is Slovaks not getting 6 points, not missing the QF, it's hilarious you are still missing this. Case in point, in THE most likely scenario (Latvian regulation loss to Switzerland), 5 points are still enough for them, even if it doesn't fit the 56% probability.
Latvians making the QFs is not conditional on Slovakia not getting 6 points. It's only one of the conditions, for god's sake.
If they do get 6 points, they still won't make the play-offs 34 out of 100 times.
SoundAndFury
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Truly enough fighting a wall for a day. Sorry to Slovaks for wasting an entire page of their thread.
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jcbio11
Registered User
I am sorry Namejs I just don't see it. I don't see you taking a point versus Switzerland. I saw them play, they're awesome and they're only getting better. Slovakia in the QF with 11 points.
Do you guys think that Hlavaj will be in goal for both games? vs Slovenia and vs Norway.
Have not seen any games of Slovakia this tournament.
Have not seen any games of Slovakia this tournament.
vlady
Registered User
You should invest your life savings on Switzerland's win in regulation time then.
vlady
Registered User
I wouldn't be so sure. If SUI beats CZE, then they will have won the group and will have nothing to play for in their last game. At this point I think Latvia is more likely to make the QF. And let's not forget that we also need 6 points from the last 2 games, which is not a gimme either.
