Simple Asset Management Chart for Baffled GMs

[Izzy Goodenough]

You too can be a GM

Having a hard time making Hockey Ops decisions? Feel indecisive and hesitant because you have a swarm of bees in your head when you come to work? Feel challenged when one of your colleagues asks you about other players in the league?

This chart is all you really need to know to do your job as an NHL GM.

It tells you how to predict the future and allows burgeoning GMs to gauge the past.

It lets you know who to protect in the expansion draft, who to sign as a UFA, and who to trade for, and who to let go.

Should we sign a 29-year-old UFA 6x6?
Should we trade a 1st round draft choice for a 28-year-old?
Should we protect a 23-year-old Dman or a 30-year-old Dman in the expansion draft?

Gaze upon it and weep as a result of its simplicity:
A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

BTW: Other metrics mentioned in the article support the same conclusion, age is the most important predictor of future performance in the NHL.

Click to read more...

 

[Coily]

Doug Wilson would argue with all of this...

 

[Tob]

young good old bad

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

The problem with following the chart is that making trades is really difficult. Lots of teams every year fail to trade for cap efficient young players at a position of need. There are only so many available. There are only so many teams in which needs line up.

Also, the cap is zero sum. Cheaper veteran players will just result in more expensive 2nd and 3rd contract players. It's just not going to stay on the sidelines.

 

[Kairi Zaide]

The problem with following the chart is that making trades is really difficult. Lots of teams every year fail to trade for cap efficient young players at a position of need. There are only so many available. There are only so many teams in which needs line up.

Also, the cap is zero sum. Cheaper veteran players will just result in more expensive 2nd and 3rd contract players. It's just not going to stay on the sidelines.

Which isn't a bad thing in the grand scheme, to be honest, even in the eyes of GMs. The odds of your team's cap being ****ed is far lower if players get paid for what they bring to the table, and not what they brought. It, however, isn't really a shift that can happen fast; it needs to happen organically, over a ~5-10 years period.

 

[aufheben]

I can’t be the only one who read this thread title as “…Asset Management…Buffalo GM”?

 

[txpd]

Old is bad.

bad

Bad bad

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Which isn't a bad thing in the grand scheme, to be honest, even in the eyes of GMs. The odds of your team's cap being ****ed is far lower if players get paid for what they bring to the table, and not what they brought. It, however, isn't really a shift that can happen fast; it needs to happen organically, over a ~5-10 years period.

It's neither good nor bad. Just different. Getting paid for what they bring to the table will creep up and up to overpaid for what they bring to the table. I can already see big gambles on 2nd contracts just going horribly wrong. Imagine the next Mike Matheson not living up to lofty expectations at ~$7 mil instead of ~$5 mil.

 

[jcs0218]

The problem with following the chart is that making trades is really difficult. Lots of teams every year fail to trade for cap efficient young players at a position of need. There are only so many available. There are only so many teams in which needs line up.

Also, the cap is zero sum. Cheaper veteran players will just result in more expensive 2nd and 3rd contract players. It's just not going to stay on the sidelines.

The top paragraph illustrates why the draft is much more important now than ever. Especially in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

A team who can consistently draft NHL-calibre talent in these rounds are going to be far ahead of the curve, because you get cost-controlled young players who are valuable contributors.

It is better than signing UFAs for $5 million just to be 2nd/3rd-line tweeners.

 

[jcs0218]

Should we sign a 29-year-old UFA 6x6?
Should we trade a 1st round draft choice for a 28-year-old?
Should we protect a 23-year-old Dman or a 30-year-old Dman in the expansion draft?

I am tired so I can't figure all of these out.

The first example is Hyman. Who are the other two?

 

[CarolinaBlueJacket]

It makes sense when you see the bad boat anchor contracts that a lot of 30-35 year old players have. So should a GM never sign a UFA? According to this they should trade all players by 28 for younger assets.

 

[Il Stugotz]

Old is bad.

bad

Bad bad

Haven’t won a playoff round in 3 years

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

It will be interesting, over the next few weeks, to watch the dogs eat the homework of some GMs.

Probably starting with whomever signs Hyman.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Haven’t won a playoff round in 3 years

BAD

 

[Pavels Dog]

Wouldn't this chart indicate that a team full of 22-24 year olds would dominate the league?

Meanwhile we know such teams rarely have success.

More to building teams than "WAR".

 

[HTFN]

Haven’t won a playoff round in 3 years

Are they bad players or not?

Curve gets dragged down by role players in a big way, it's not age it's where your youth is.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Elite players become 'good' into their mid 30's.

'Good' players become bad by mid 30's

Mediocre players rarely play into their mid 30's.

 

[txpd]

Haven’t won a playoff round in 3 years

Its a team game. Kuznetsov isnt old. Two rookie goalies arent old. Jakub Vrana with zero points in the 2 consecutive playoffs isnt old.

Ovechkin had 10 goals and 18pts in those 20 games. Are you saying it was his fault? Really?
Carlson 13pts in 17 games.

Its also true that this team has won or tied for its division title all 3 of those years. Bad is missing the playoffs. Good teams lose in the playoffs all the time

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

I think you are missing the point, are you expecting OV to stay the same, improve or get worse as he ages?

The fact that he starts from an elite position of performance doesn't preclude the evidence he is now getting worse.

Other players don't have the 'reserve' OV has regarding performance so they just appear to crumble earlier, though the performance of both OV and crumbier players is still decreasing with age.

Buyers of Hall and Hyman beware.

 

[KingsFan7824]

If every GM followed this, nothing would ever happen. There's never a good time to do anything. The only good contracts are ELC's. If you have a productive guy on an ELC, and all of a sudden you have to pay 5, 6, 10 times more for the same production, you just screwed yourself. Plus the players would scream collusion if UFAs didn't get tons of money.

Bad contracts are pretty much the price of doing business. That's a big reason why owners wanted a 50/50 split on revenue with a hard cap. You can't trust players. Just look at the number of coaches that have to get fired because players stop listening.

Owners and GMs, being the competitive people that they are, want to win. Couple that with the lack of freely available players every year, and the handful of good players that are freely available will make a lot of money. The demand for talent exceeds supply. That's why players have wanted free agency forever. But not everyone a free agent every year. That would be too much supply.

 

[Drake1588]

I think you would make a terrible GM -- not because the premise is faulty; I think it's quite sound -- but due to inflexibility, total conviction that you couldn't possibly be wrong, and honestly? You're supercilious and generally unpleasant. That's a problem, because of what you don't know about being a GM.

In practice, being a GM is about talking to people, developing relationships, fostering friendships, greasing the wheels, keeping in touch, and occasionally doing a fellow GM a favor. Sometimes it can be about helping out a colleague in a bind when you're able, in the knowledge that this creates capital and a chit that you can call in later when you are in a bind yourself with your club, cap, or player who needs a new home. Sometimes you lose a transaction to play the long game.

You hire analysts to feed you information on spreadsheets, and the good GMs take what they feed you to heart. Analysis is a fraction of what it takes to succeed as a GM, though. Most GMs know that when you actually take a moment to look, there are young players who flame out early, and older gems who plateau and provide strong play well into their 30s. The aging curve is precipitous or gradual for different guys. The trick is identifying which ones are going to age well, and which ones will not age so gracefully. That's less easily quantifiable for an individual. The data only gives you answers in the aggregate, but you aren't making calls about 750 players. You only ever get to make a given call about a single individual. It's not always so cut and dried, and there are always exceptions.

You might well title this "Asset Management for Assistant GMs" instead. That's closer to the mark, as far as the job description is concerned. A GM's job entails a lot of other activities.

 

[UED]

man oh man this is crazy news I always thought players were peaking in their 40s and retiring in their mid 20s! thank you fancy chart

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

Wouldn't this chart indicate that a team full of 22-24 year olds would dominate the league?

Meanwhile we know such teams rarely have success.

More to building teams than "WAR".

i think it indicates that a team with the most 22-24 year olds would do best. is that actually the case? what are some teams in that 22-24 sweet spot in recent years?

 

[Roshi]

1) stack up your team with early twenties
2) WAR the s*** out of the field
3) profit

its weird noone had this figured out before. Stupid hockey ops..

 

[wasunder]

Edmonton better find a way to dump McDavid for any picks they can get. He's gonna be on the downswing of his WAR according to this chart. Bring in some 18 year old kids to take the team over