Maybe like a 2. It's easy to point to one guy's performance and think "without them they don't win the cup" but they don't do it alone, ever. If you don't have a goalie playing at a high level you're almost definitely not winning. If your defense is choking, you're almost definitely not winning.
Place any superstar or superstar duo on, say, Anaheim or Buffalo, they aren't winning shit.
Some cup winners may be better than others but you need a strong overall roster to win the cup. If some superstars drafted high on teams that fail to build strong teams around them don't win the cup, I don't really see how that's their fault for misplacing their faith in the GM.