Shots against

[Pyrophorus]

this. the leafs didn't deserve to win last night, just as they haven't deserved to win many games this year.

if they keep playing like this, they will collapse again and again. As long as it ends in RC being fired, It's worth it.

Watching the last 2 periods, and against another poor defensive team, I thought the Leafs carried the play to them lots of the time. They too also had a lot of turnovers. I know its Dallas, but it seemed like they owned them.

It seemed like most of their shots came on flurries at the end of the period.

 

[TheLeafsBro]

Yeah.. Since when does depth allow you to sustain 40 shots a night?

If Bernier can sustain this play and we make the playoffs then he's a legit top 3 goalie in the world. I doubt that's going to happen though.

 

[Stats01]

The Leafs are giving up 40 shots a game again but I don't think it is like the past at all. I think they have better depth to sustain this type of play longer.

I got a little exercise for people to do next game.

Watch the game and count how many shots you think were tough shots and considered dangerous. Sure a shot from the blueline with no screen is a shot but not that tough.

Count how many tough shots they face and who's line was on the ice.

At the end of the game in the PGT let's see everyone totals to see what each poster thinks is tough shots vs easy shots and really is 40 against really 40 against or more like 15-20 tough shots, dangerous shots vs easy shots.

Would be interesting to see each person's viewpoint of the game.

It's the same old same old. Beyond pathetic really. Almost 50 shots given up, and we are consistently giving up 35+ shots. It needs to stop. People consider it whining but reality is this is the same crap from last year and look at the collapse we had..same thing is going to happen unless Bernier plays out of his mind the rest of the way. This is not sustainable.

 

[Durkin67]

Quality of possession... my god, you have the puck the other team does not....that is what possession is!

If you are look for one stat to determine who out played who, it is possession.....it tells you who was dictating the play- the better team that game. Now quality of scoring chances are a different matter, but I can tell you that the longer you possess the puck in your opponents zone the higher the quality of a scoring chance you will generate as a result.

What some people still struggle with is that they think that they can look at one stat to tell them the bigger picture and at the end of the day there is only one, it is the score....who won who loss. If a person is wanting a clear picture then they can look at 2 stats. Possession and scoring chances, if a team win these two stats they generally will win the game, unless a goalie steals the game for the other team like Bernier did last night.

Thanks for making my argument for me. In your own words, possession does not equate to scoring chances, thus indicating varying degrees of possession quality.

If a team possesses the puck for 2.5 seconds in their D zone, transitions through the attacking zone yet fails to penetrate the offensive zone is that the same degree of quality of possession as an instance in which a team cycles in the offensive zone, creates gaps in coverage, gets a good quality shot off plus a rebound, or draws a penalty as a result of the opposition fatiguing and acting out of desperation?

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

The shots don't tell the whole story. The shot count was close through two periods. Dallas put up a lot of shots in the third when it was already 3-0. They were desperate so they kept throwing pucks on net. They even pulled the goalie early. If there is one thing I didn't like, it was the Leafs sat back too much trying to nurse a lead. Got to finish games off strong.

 

[Durkin67]

Yeah.. Since when does depth allow you to sustain 40 shots a night?

If Bernier can sustain this play and we make the playoffs then he's a legit top 3 goalie in the world. I doubt that's going to happen though.

what that depth allows you to do is receive scoring from more than just JvR and Kessel. While Im not a fan of receiving 40 shots a game, I am a fan of haven the kind of depth that takes the pressure off the Kessel line to outscore their shortcomings single handedly.

 

[Stats01]

The shots don't tell the whole story. The shot count was close through two periods. Dallas put up a lot of shots in the third when it was already 3-0. They were desperate so they kept throwing pucks on net. They even pulled the goalie early. If there is one thing I didn't like, it was the Leafs sat back too much trying to nurse a lead. Got to finish games off strong.

Since Carlyle has been here we've sat back on leads. It's one of the main reasons we had our collapse. Of course a team is going to be desperate in the third when down 3, it doesn't make it ok that we just allow them to enter our zone and take as many shots as they want. This is all a self induced problem. Things need to change or history will repeat itself. A team shouldn't change the way it plays just because it has a lead. This system has to change, we need to put more pressure in the neutral zone and at the point of zone entry and try and force turnovers not just allow them to skate in and we just stand in front of Bernier and let them attack and cycle the puck.

 

[Mess]

Last year the Leafs were 30th and last in shots against averaging 35.9

This year after 35 games they're 29th in shots against averaging 34.4

By swapping out the bottom 6 forwards and 1/2 the D the Leafs are giving up 1.5 less shots against per game.

The rebuilding Buffalo Sabres give up more at 35.7/g.

 

[TheLeafsBro]

what that depth allows you to do is receive scoring from more than just JvR and Kessel. While Im not a fan of receiving 40 shots a game, I am a fan of haven the kind of depth that takes the pressure off the Kessel line to outscore their shortcomings single handedly.

Thanks for stating the obvious. Who wouldn't want more scoring depth that takes pressure off our top line? I mean really.

OP said he thinks with this depth we can sustain our play and winning but if we're constantly giving up ridiculous amount of shots every night we will not be able to sustain the wins. Eventually our high shooting percentages and brilliant goaltending will let up and we'll start going on a slide. We've improved our depth but thinking it's going to be enough to overcome the shot margin we give up every night is just ignorance.

 

[Purity*]

Last year the Leafs were 30th and last in shots against averaging 35.9

This year after 35 games they're 29th in shots against averaging 34.4

By swapping out the bottom 6 forwards and 1/2 the D the Leafs are giving up 1.5 less shots against per game.

The rebuilding Buffalo Sabres give up more at 35.7/g.

The SA have been going up and up since the beginning of the season. After 25 games, I believe our SA were 33.2 or something.

Where do you think it'll be sitting by year's end?

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

I don't think any goalie minds facing 43 shots when 30 of them are weak, easy to see, throw at the net from the outside type of shots.

Also, I want people who are going to criticize that fact that TOR allowed so many shots on goal in this game to really focus on how the Stars played defensively and the number of turnovers that team had. They were a much sloppier team and deserved their loss tonight.

 

[Pyrophorus]

The SA have been going up and up since the beginning of the season. After 25 games, I believe our SA were 33.2 or something.

Where do you think it'll be sitting by year's end?

The other side of switching the bottom 6 is: Are they on pace for scoring more than 39g?

You may ask, why talk about GF in a quasi-GA thread, but if the the #1 line goes cold again, could
the other lines buoy them?

 

[rdawg1234]

until we change up that first line which plays 20-22 minutes a game our shots against wont be going down, they either score on the rush or sit in our zone and cant play defence.

your third and usually 2nd line is decent/good at posession and can sustain a cycle, not the 1st though.

changing carlyle for another coach might help a bit, but I doubt it will change much.

trade/switch out bozak+JVR for solid two-way players+ change the coach and your team as a whole will improve dramatically IMO from a bubble team to a contender.

easier said than done.

 

[MastuhNinks]

Shots against is one of our most consistent players.

 

[Durkin67]

Thanks for stating the obvious. Who wouldn't want more scoring depth that takes pressure off our top line? I mean really.

OP said he thinks with this depth we can sustain our play and winning but if we're constantly giving up ridiculous amount of shots every night we will not be able to sustain the wins. Eventually our high shooting percentages and brilliant goaltending will let up and we'll start going on a slide. We've improved our depth but thinking it's going to be enough to overcome the shot margin we give up every night is just ignorance.

You asked a question with an obvious answer...what were you looking for?

Ask a better question.

 

[-DeMo-]

what that depth allows you to do is receive scoring from more than just JvR and Kessel. While Im not a fan of receiving 40 shots a game, I am a fan of haven the kind of depth that takes the pressure off the Kessel line to outscore their shortcomings single handedly.

that depth hasn't really done that tho were 3-9-1 in games Kessel hasn't produced a point in. there also 4-9-2 in games Kessel is a minus player.

It wasn't an issue for the first 20 games, but we have definitely regressed once again in terms of our possession and coverage in the defensive zone.

Carlyle has some solid attributes as a coach, and our roster has deficiencies, but I don't think there's any doubt that our problems are primarily systemic in nature.

We have enough skill and goaltending to be a perennial playoff team.

personally there's a lot of doubt that it's a system problem, I think it's quiet clearly a player personnel problem, and there unwillingness to commit to the defensive side of the game. we have heard the coaches say they're preaching a system very close to what St. Louis is using, we've also heard Polak in training camp say he's having no trouble adjusting to the "new system" because it's basically the same they used in St. Louis. it's quiet clearly a player issue to me, I don't know why anyone would think otherwise, saying our coach is implementing a faulty system is hard to believe considering how long Carlyle has been around the game, he knows what works and what doesn't. if you want to say he doesn't manage his bench well in games, I can agree with that, but the system itself I don't think is Faulty.

 

[The Legend]

that depth hasn't really done that tho were 3-9-1 in games Kessel hasn't produced a point in. there also 4-9-2 in games Kessel is a minus player.




personally there's a lot of doubt that it's a system problem, I think it's quiet clearly a player personnel problem, and there unwillingness to commit to the defensive side of the game. we have heard the coaches say they're preaching a system very close to what St. Louis is using, we've also heard Polak in training camp say he's having no trouble adjusting to the "new system" because it's basically the same they used in St. Louis. it's quiet clearly a player issue to me, I don't know why anyone would think otherwise, saying our coach is implementing a faulty system is hard to believe considering how long Carlyle has been around the game, he knows what works and what doesn't. if you want to say he doesn't manage his bench well in games, I can agree with that, but the system itself I don't think is Faulty.

Even if it isn't a system problem (which I doubt), the coach had a lot of say in the personnel of this team. So to me - either way it's a Randy Carlyle problem.

 

[Durkin67]

that depth hasn't really done that tho were 3-9-1 in games Kessel hasn't produced a point in. there also 4-9-2 in games Kessel is a minus player.




personally there's a lot of doubt that it's a system problem, I think it's quiet clearly a player personnel problem, and there unwillingness to commit to the defensive side of the game. we have heard the coaches say they're preaching a system very close to what St. Louis is using, we've also heard Polak in training camp say he's having no trouble adjusting to the "new system" because it's basically the same they used in St. Louis. it's quiet clearly a player issue to me, I don't know why anyone would think otherwise, saying our coach is implementing a faulty system is hard to believe considering how long Carlyle has been around the game, he knows what works and what doesn't. if you want to say he doesn't manage his bench well in games, I can agree with that, but the system itself I don't think is Faulty.

Whats the record when JvR scores? Lupul? Kadri?

 

[TheLeafsBro]

You asked a question with an obvious answer...what were you looking for?

Ask a better question.

Ever heard of a rhetorical question. You think I asked whether depth was going to help us sustain wins while we get pummeled by 40+ shots every night because I genuinely thought it might? Btw, save me the trouble and don't answer that one for me.

 

[Semantics]

Rielly is going to be ruined if this continues, he isn't learning how to play at the NHL, he's learning how to play shinny.

Bingo. This is why I've been hoping for a coaching change for so long, even if it means "the tank" is ruined. It's just terrible having our young players learning in a type of system that no other NHL team plays. Who knows what kind of bad habits they're developing. They can recover from it, but it would obviously be infinitely better to have them learning to play the right way for the modern NHL right from the get go.

 

[Semantics]

See I don't trust these stats whatsoever. You can't just look at a total game shots attempts and from paper judge what type of hockey game it was.

Maybe not, but you CAN look at aggregated stats from 10-20 games and from paper judge what kind of hockey a team is playing. In the long run, flukes like getting a lot of good scoring chances on very few shots wash out.

 

[Semantics]

Thanks for making my argument for me. In your own words, possession does not equate to scoring chances, thus indicating varying degrees of possession quality.

Possession does not equate to scoring chances in the same way that driving drunk does not equate to car accidents. You can have possession for an entire shift without a scoring chance, just like you can drive completely wasted a dozen times and not crash. But at the end of the day if you continue drive impaired you will be far more likely to eventually crash and hurt someone, and if you continue to drive possession you will be far more likely to eventually get good scoring chances and indeed goals.

You cannot logically deny this. It's math. You're basically arguing that 1 + 1 =/= 2.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Last year the Leafs were 30th and last in shots against averaging 35.9

This year after 35 games they're 29th in shots against averaging 34.4

By swapping out the bottom 6 forwards and 1/2 the D the Leafs are giving up 1.5 less shots against per game.

The rebuilding Buffalo Sabres give up more at 35.7/g.

Nobody including buffalo have a first line as ineffective defensively as we have. These guys are among the very worst possession players in the entire league concentrated on one line.

That explains a majority of the problems. Both Riemer and Bernier have three wins when facing 40 shots or better. Bernier lost half the games he has faced 40 or better. The first line being changed will likely help.

Its not sustainable if you had a 4 by 8 sheet of plywood for a goalie. The team needs to choose a identity. Right now they chosen to go with this formula that has cracks because of the first lines scoring.

Nobody likes it but Nonis does not much about it. I wonder when Bozak will be moved as the only likely option to get a good defensive Center to play with Kessel. That's not bashing Bozak. It just has to be done really.

We know the other lines hold their own possession wise and defensively. We need a first line center and Kadri is fine where he is. So apparently we need some trades to change this.

 

[Semantics]

what that depth allows you to do is receive scoring from more than just JvR and Kessel. While Im not a fan of receiving 40 shots a game, I am a fan of haven the kind of depth that takes the pressure off the Kessel line to outscore their shortcomings single handedly.

We have the most goals per game in the entire NHL. Our scoring depth is absolutely top notch. So, as of right now at least, there couldn't possibly be any LESS pressure on the Kessel line to score. And yet they're still terrible defensively.

 

[Semantics]

personally there's a lot of doubt that it's a system problem, I think it's quiet clearly a player personnel problem, and there unwillingness to commit to the defensive side of the game. we have heard the coaches say they're preaching a system very close to what St. Louis is using, we've also heard Polak in training camp say he's having no trouble adjusting to the "new system" because it's basically the same they used in St. Louis. it's quiet clearly a player issue to me, I don't know why anyone would think otherwise, saying our coach is implementing a faulty system is hard to believe considering how long Carlyle has been around the game, he knows what works and what doesn't. if you want to say he doesn't manage his bench well in games, I can agree with that, but the system itself I don't think is Faulty.

Polak has looked pretty bad here too, which suggests it *is* a systems problem. The system is what the players are actually doing on the ice. That's what Carlyle is responsible for. He may have the absolute perfect system in his head, but if he can't teach his players how to play it then it doesn't really exist. Getting the players to execute the system is on the coach.

Other coaches have obtained better results from far less talented teams than the Leafs. And even internally, more than half the roster has changed since Carlyle started here, and all of the new players look just as bad (or worse) at executing the system as the players they replaced.