morehockeystats
Unusual hockey stats
Based on the work of Micah Blake McCurdy presented at SEAHAC 2019, I was able to create a model that evaluates the danger of the shots based on static recorded parameters, as well as the skater's ability to score and goalie, correspondingly, to save above and below expectations.
Puts a whole new meaning into SVP...
To summarize, the average probability of an unblocked shot attempt going in is about 0.06. However if we dissect these attempts by their available properties, we may conclude that the actual probability would wildly vary, with some even going above 0.5 . Naturally, for a goalie letting in 3 goals on 40 shot attempts that together are expected to produce 2.040 goals is not the same as letting in 3 goals on 30 attempts that carry an expectation of 3.512, but a mere SVP would tell an entirely reversed story.
Same for the skater. A player that consistently manages to send more pucks in that the sum of the probabilities of the shots he takes should be regarded as a more skilled shooter, whereas a player that misses rebounds in front of the goals, well, umm...
Questions and discussion are welcome!
Puts a whole new meaning into SVP...
To summarize, the average probability of an unblocked shot attempt going in is about 0.06. However if we dissect these attempts by their available properties, we may conclude that the actual probability would wildly vary, with some even going above 0.5 . Naturally, for a goalie letting in 3 goals on 40 shot attempts that together are expected to produce 2.040 goals is not the same as letting in 3 goals on 30 attempts that carry an expectation of 3.512, but a mere SVP would tell an entirely reversed story.
Same for the skater. A player that consistently manages to send more pucks in that the sum of the probabilities of the shots he takes should be regarded as a more skilled shooter, whereas a player that misses rebounds in front of the goals, well, umm...
Questions and discussion are welcome!