Shesterkin v. Demko

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Sooo when is the right timing ?

It's a good question.

There's never one timing when to start comparing players. They can be compared at any time, but I think we all know when people try to excessively start comparing players to others regarded more favorably during a player's absolute best stretch of play during their career, it transparent.

I think the point is that this type of timing gives you more inaccurate results for a poll like this because there are always going to be people who don't try to think this through thoroughly, and instead react off of snap-reactions.

About the Hart vs. Demko discussion thats also active right now, I think I've been pretty clear that I think Demko is generally very underrated and Hart is generally very overrated. However, thinking this through thoroughly, I think it's worth considering that prior to this season Hart was better than Demko or at least as good. A 20-30 game sample shouldn't overtake a prior two season's sample, and thats before you even consider that Hart is two and a half years younger, so that is going to be factored into the equation.

 

[M2Beezy]

Demko AINEC, dont really know anything about the other guy

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Demko AINEC, dont really know anything about the other guy

So how can you say AINEC? This is the problem with HF. Unless you're being facetious.

 

[lawrence]

There's never one timing when to start comparing players. They can be compared at any time, but I think we all know when people try to excessively start comparing players to others regarded more favorably during a player's absolute best stretch of play during their career, it transparent.

Like that girard vs Hughes poll? I didn’t see you say anything.

you see, when your player is involved you speak up, but when it’s not you keep your mouth shut. this is hfboards there will always be comparisons, cherry picking and so for.

 

[Big Empty]

So how can you say AINEC? This is the problem with HF. Unless you're being facetious.

I laughed reading that guys post

 

[Aqualung]

It's a good question.

There's never one timing when to start comparing players. They can be compared at any time, but I think we all know when people try to excessively start comparing players to others regarded more favorably during a player's absolute best stretch of play during their career, it transparent.

I think the point is that this type of timing gives you more inaccurate results for a poll like this because there are always going to be people who don't try to think this through thoroughly, and instead react off of snap-reactions.

About the Hart vs. Demko discussion thats also active right now, I think I've been pretty clear that I think Demko is generally very underrated and Hart is generally very overrated. However, thinking this through thoroughly, I think it's worth considering that prior to this season Hart was better than Demko or at least as good. A 20-30 game sample shouldn't overtake a prior two season's sample, and thats before you even consider that Hart is two and a half years younger, so that is going to be factored into the equation.

In order to end this tangent I’d say if I had started the poll after Demko’s first ten games rather than now you would still get an “inaccurate” result. But I think you are framing these polls wrong anyways. It’s capturing the sentiment at that time— nothing about this is for accuracy sake. I’d like to leave Hart discussion out of this and strictly talk about two players who became starters the same year, have roughly played the same number of games and performed at similar levels, and drafted the same year.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Like that girard vs Hughes poll? I didn’t see you say anything.

you see, when your player is involved you speak up, but when it’s not you keep your mouth shut. this is hfboards there will always be comparisons, cherry picking and so for.

I'm not sure what you don't understand. I already explained that my problem is much more the comparison to Hart. You are the one whose making this about self-interests. You are the one whose trying to defend your team's player. There's nothing here to defend my team's player over.

Do I need to speak up about everything on this website I disagree with? I think the timing of that thread from Avalanche fans about Girard vs. Hughes was convenient. Hughes would likely get better results last year or another year. I'm not sure why I should need to say that for every instance. I think the principle generally holds for all these situations, and none of us should need to say it for every situation.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

In order to end this tangent I’d say if I had started the poll after Demko’s first ten games rather than now you would still get an “inaccurate” result. But I think you are framing these polls wrong anyways. It’s capturing the sentiment at that time— nothing about this is for accuracy sake. I’d like to leave Hart discussion out of this and strictly talk about two players who became starters the same year, have roughly played the same number of games and performed at similar levels, and drafted the same year.

Okay, so let's discuss this poll.

There was this exact poll in October. Thatcher Demko vs Igor Shesterkin

The results were about 74/26 Shestyorkin. How have we gotten to 52/48 from 74/26? Shestyorkin hasn't hurt his stock. He's put together a credible season so far. He's top ten in most important goaltending stats.

Does Demko's recent stretch of good play accurately swing a poll about 22 points? We are likely talking about a very similar pool of voters now as opposed to October. I think it's realistic to expect some swing in Demko's direction from October, given Demko has backed up his playoffs and is showing he's a real starting caliber goalie. However, I'm not sure a 22% swing is accurate, given we are talking about two players with the exact same SV% this season. The swing should be minimal. Maybe a few points.

Thats why I suggest these poll results are due to recency bias. The pool of voters is making a snap judgment based on Demko's recent play. I think the poll-maker (that seems to be you in this instance) knows that they are going to get more favorable results for Demko now. I'm sure the one who made the Hart poll knew the same thing. I don't blame someone for capitalizing on that situation, but let's be up front about what the situation is.

If you want the most accurate results in a poll on this website, it's probably best to not make a poll when the players form is to extremes. Demko's form is to a good extreme. As I mentioned in my prior post, I have a much bigger problem with the Demko vs. Hart poll because thats a player with a good extreme vs. a player with a bad extreme. Thats even more inaccurate than a poll like this where you have a player with a good extreme vs. a player without an extreme. I think one is more egregious than the other, but I still think poll results aren't the most accurate for a situation like this.

 

[Aqualung]

Okay, so let's discuss this poll.

There was this exact poll in October. Thatcher Demko vs Igor Shesterkin

The results were about 74/26 Shestyorkin. How have we gotten to 52/48 from 74/26? Shestyorkin hasn't hurt his stock. He's put together a credible season so far. He's top ten in most important goaltending stats.

Does Demko's recent stretch of good play accurately swing a poll about 22 points? We are likely talking about a very similar pool of voters now as opposed to October. I think it's realistic to expect some swing in Demko's direction from October, given Demko has backed up his playoffs and is showing he's a real starting caliber goalie. However, I'm not sure a 22% swing is accurate, given we are talking about two players with the exact same SV% this season. The swing should be minimal. Maybe a few points.

Thats why I suggest these poll results are due to recency bias. The pool of voters is making a snap judgment based on Demko's recent play. I think the poll-maker (that seems to be you in this instance) knows that they are going to get more favorable results for Demko now. I'm sure the one who made the Hart poll knew the same thing. I don't blame someone for capitalizing on that situation, but let's be up front about what the situation is.

If you want the most accurate results in a poll on this website, it's probably best to not make a poll when the players form is to extremes. Demko's form is to a good extreme. As I mentioned in my prior post, I have a much bigger problem with the Demko vs. Hart poll because thats a player with a good extreme vs. a player with a bad extreme. Thats even more inaccurate than a poll like this where you have a player with a good extreme vs. a player without an extreme. I think one is more egregious than the other, but I still think poll results aren't the most accurate for a situation like this.

I really don’t know what you’re arguing. I’ve never declared this to be a fair or accurate poll. I’m certainly doing it because of Demko’s recent play and that should be obvious. As I said before, I’m trying to capture the sentiment at this time after this recent stretch (none of this is imperical and I can still take this data point and make my own deductions based on recency and also recent injury). Just because the poll is closer than the previous doesn’t actually mean one is better than the other— just wondering if people have decided to change their minds easily after a hot stretch whether right or wrong and by how far. Ultimately, my guess was if Demko only pulled even after his hot stretch and Igor not playing, then the overall sentiment probably is that Igor is still regarded as better.

 

[lawrence]

I'm not sure what you don't understand. I

yet you literally said this....

when people try to excessively start comparing players to others regarded more favorably during a player's absolute best stretch of play during their career, it transparent.

... yes Girard is playing a very good stretch of his young career right when Quinn Hughes is facing a very tough stretch of his young career , yet you didn't say anything about that? Double standard much. In the end , this is hfboards fans will cherry pick an opportunity to showcase a player or dump on a rvial player when the opportunity arises. I personally find the poll section one of the biggest jokes on the internet, but it is what it is.

 

[eviohh26]

What are these ranger fans crying about? Timing? Or something? Da fuk am i reading.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

What are these ranger fans crying about? Timing? Or something? Da fuk am i reading.

I'm pretty sure it's one Rangers fan that doesn't even post on the Rangers board because no one likes him there.

 

[Aqualung]

The only shot of Demko winning this poll is when Shesterkin's been injured for almost 3 weeks while Demko is on a hot streak, and he's still losing the poll lol

Winning a poll doesn’t mean one goalie is better that’s the other. Statistically they are very similar this year. Also they’re pretty even this poll given sample size.