Three years sounds about right. Six years too long.
If a bridge (2yr) deal is off the table I'm guessing they go for 4 or 5 @ around $3.75 which would be good with me.
Assuming he gets to play on his strong side I think he might thrive under DeBoer.
Dillon played well last year
He was set up to fail being played over his head, on the wrong side (purportedly the reason he was traded in the first place), and with terrible defensive partners outside of Braun
He's still young, especially for a D, and managed to show poise and promise playing in a scenario that was less than ideal
I'd like to see him locked in for a decent term (4-5 years), and hopefully his 'shaky year' helps to shave some off of the dollar amount
He was pretty terrible, statistically, one of the worst on the team. He didn't show much of anything from my perspective. Yes the situation was less than ideal, and yes I expect him to be better next season along with everyone else that was placed in a less than ideal situation (Burns) but the fact his last two seasons have been pretty terrible and he doesn't deserve a big pay day. $3m-$3.5 is being generous based on his recent play. Frankly I'd be happy to trade him, he's another one way left side defense only defensemen and we need some offense on that left side.
What was he exactly the worst at?
His counting stats weren't great but like you said his underlying numbers were quite good.
He's not going to be one that puts up a lot of points but given a bit more rope I think he'll be pretty good at pushing the play forward and facilitating offense.
Point being, you don't pay him for what he might do, you pay him for what he has done. A 2 year contract seems appropriate here to give him a chance to clean up his game.
I'm not really concerned about his offensive stats (though that would go a long way to increasing his value). What i'm concerned about is stuff like this:
+- = -11 (worst on the team)
Shot attempts against per 60: 50.3 (3rd worst behind Hannan and Mueller)
Defensively he wasn't great. Some of his underlying stats do so show good potential towards improving his offensive numbers, but his defensive stats last year were pretty bad. Yes it was a bad team, and yes everyone sucked, but that's the point, I'm comparing him against his own team mates. Burns btw, for as much hate as he was getting, was led the defense in shots against per 60 at least. His +- was almost as bad as Dillons though.
My point is simply he doesn't deserve a pay out, and he was a lot worse than several other players who are getting a lot more hate around here. He should get paid based on his play, he's not a prospect anymore.
Bridge deal : 3.5 X 2 with limited NTC.
RFA's can't have NTC's. And why would you give him one?