Shaq: Multiple NBA teams for sale. One might end up in Las Vegas

The Podium

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The NBA has created a dynamic where your team is either a dynasty or a total non-factor, with no in-between or serious hope for a reversal of fortune. If your team is a non-factor and stumbles into a star, you are basically just watching the clock run down before he goes to a dynasty. There's no real purpose for a small-market fan to get emotionally invested in the team. Of the 4 big leagues, the NBA is by far the worst about this and it shows in the way its small markets are basically welfare cases surviving on sellouts by road team fans.

It's really hard to overstate how extreme this is in the NBA. The four franchises above have played a combined total of 104 seasons. In those 104 seasons, the only time any of them have ever won a 3rd round game was Orlando during a 2-year blip with peak Dwight Howard, and that blip ended when Howard... left to go to the Lakers.

The Raptors just shattered that theory. Raptors took nearly 2 decades to become relevant and then half a decade to make a championship team, but they managed to break through the dynasty's and with their win they increased their value 25% (over 500 mill) in one year. True, the NBA isnt a small market friendly league, but at the end of the day success makes the market. The Cavs or Golden State are the perfect example.

That's easy to say about a top-15 market like Detroit or Seattle.

When you talk about moving 4 NBA teams, you're talking about Seattle as BY FAR the biggest market, followed by a bunch of markets that would either be clearly oversaturated (Kansas City), in an unwinnable head-to-head with the NHL/NFL (Pittsburgh, Vegas, St. Louis, Nashville), or a market no better than the one they just left (Louisville, San Diego, Cincy, Baltimore). The options run out really fast.

Montreal is actually the biggest market (both population and TV), assuming the Canadian dollar bounces back in the near future. Although, I think the expos come back before the NBA moves to Montreal.
 

tarheelhockey

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The Raptors just shattered that theory. Raptors took nearly 2 decades to become relevant and then half a decade to make a championship team, but they managed to break through the dynasty's and with their win they increased their value 25% (over 500 mill) in one year. True, the NBA isnt a small market friendly league, but at the end of the day success makes the market. The Cavs or Golden State are the perfect example.

They didn't shatter anything. They took nearly 25 years to make a ripple, had one big run, and promptly watched their superstar go to Los Angeles. Orlando had a similar run with Dwight Howard, before he went to... Los Angeles. The Raptors can look forward to similar irrelevance when this phase passes. The only way they don't fall off the radar, is if they somehow flex as a big-market in a way that Toronto never has before.

The one NBA franchise that has had sustained success in a small-market setting is San Antonio, in what can only be described as unique circumstances, and even the Spurs are awful now.

Montreal is actually the biggest market (both population and TV), assuming the Canadian dollar bounces back in the near future. Although, I think the expos come back before the NBA moves to Montreal.

True on both counts.
 

The Podium

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They didn't shatter anything. They took nearly 25 years to make a ripple, had one big run, and promptly watched their superstar go to Los Angeles. Orlando had a similar run with Dwight Howard, before he went to... Los Angeles. The Raptors can look forward to similar irrelevance when this phase passes. The only way they don't fall off the radar, is if they somehow flex as a big-market in a way that Toronto never has before.

The one NBA franchise that has had sustained success in a small-market setting is San Antonio, in what can only be described as unique circumstances, and even the Spurs are awful now.

You have to wait and see, the Raptors are being lauded for the program they've built, especially following the championship. They've had multiple recent second tier stars finally wanting to stay and have been rumoured as a possible Giannis destination. IF that happens, big if, than they break the trend of superstars staying loyal or moving to the big markets. Doubt it becomes the norm, since its nearly impossible to build a winner from the bottom, but success builds the market more than anything.
 

Centrum Hockey

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They didn't shatter anything. They took nearly 25 years to make a ripple, had one big run, and promptly watched their superstar go to Los Angeles. Orlando had a similar run with Dwight Howard, before he went to... Los Angeles. The Raptors can look forward to similar irrelevance when this phase passes. The only way they don't fall off the radar, is if they somehow flex as a big-market in a way that Toronto never has before.

The one NBA franchise that has had sustained success in a small-market setting is San Antonio, in what can only be described as unique circumstances, and even the Spurs are awful now.



True on both counts.
The NBA obviously doesn't have NHL or NFL like parody but people seem to forget that the Lakers had a 5 year playoff drought and the clippers still haven't made a conference finals.
 

tarheelhockey

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You have to wait and see, the Raptors are being lauded for the program they've built, especially following the championship. They've had multiple recent second tier stars finally wanting to stay and have been rumoured as a possible Giannis destination. IF that happens, big if, than they break the trend of superstars staying loyal or moving to the big markets. Doubt it becomes the norm, since its nearly impossible to build a winner from the bottom, but success builds the market more than anything.

The NBA obviously doesn't have NHL or NFL like parody but people seem to forget that the Lakers had a 5 year playoff drought and the clippers still haven't made a conference finals.

Not trying to make any over-specific predictions here... I'm just saying, unless Toronto is going to be the next San Antonio the pattern in the NBA is pretty clear. A few years on the rise, lose the superstar to a bigger market, and then back to being an also-ran. Toronto had the rare experience of actually winning a title during that window.

Going back to where this all started -- when we look at Orlando/Charlotte/Memphis/New Orleans and their record of being weak sisters in the league, we have to remember what those fanbases experienced with Howard/Walker/Gasol/Paul and Davis. I'm genuinely not sure how the NBA expects people to get behind organizations that are blatantly just perpetual farm teams. Even in New Orleans with Zion right now, it's just a little window of time before he plays for the Lakers or Celtics. There's not even any suspense... everyone knows he'll never win a championship in N.O. which is a big part of why he'll leave for way more money and way more stardom. If you're a Pelicans fan, how are you supposed to buy into that?
 

gstommylee

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Not trying to make any over-specific predictions here... I'm just saying, unless Toronto is going to be the next San Antonio the pattern in the NBA is pretty clear. A few years on the rise, lose the superstar to a bigger market, and then back to being an also-ran. Toronto had the rare experience of actually winning a title during that window.

Going back to where this all started -- when we look at Orlando/Charlotte/Memphis/New Orleans and their record of being weak sisters in the league, we have to remember what those fanbases experienced with Howard/Walker/Gasol/Paul and Davis. I'm genuinely not sure how the NBA expects people to get behind organizations that are blatantly just perpetual farm teams. Even in New Orleans with Zion right now, it's just a little window of time before he plays for the Lakers or Celtics. There's not even any suspense... everyone knows he'll never win a championship in N.O. which is a big part of why he'll leave for way more money and way more stardom. If you're a Pelicans fan, how are you supposed to buy into that?

I think this super team issue with the NBA will eventually cause problems.
 

RVACapsFan

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Not trying to make any over-specific predictions here... I'm just saying, unless Toronto is going to be the next San Antonio the pattern in the NBA is pretty clear. A few years on the rise, lose the superstar to a bigger market, and then back to being an also-ran. Toronto had the rare experience of actually winning a title during that window.

Going back to where this all started -- when we look at Orlando/Charlotte/Memphis/New Orleans and their record of being weak sisters in the league, we have to remember what those fanbases experienced with Howard/Walker/Gasol/Paul and Davis. I'm genuinely not sure how the NBA expects people to get behind organizations that are blatantly just perpetual farm teams. Even in New Orleans with Zion right now, it's just a little window of time before he plays for the Lakers or Celtics. There's not even any suspense... everyone knows he'll never win a championship in N.O. which is a big part of why he'll leave for way more money and way more stardom. If you're a Pelicans fan, how are you supposed to buy into that?
Overall, I think you’re right. However; when you look at the talent New Orleans has + their future draft assets, they’re setup to be a factor for awhile. And while it’s not a typical free agent destination like LA or New York, a young professional can have a pretty good time in the Big Easy. Free agents will want to go there if Zion, Lonzo and Ingram can make some noise in the playoffs

In Orlando, the Magic are the only game in town with a huge tourism industry and no state income tax. Remember Grant Hill and Tracy McGrady signing there? It can be a destination franchise post-Rona if the underlying assets are well assembled.

Charlotte and Memphis are tougher—Charlotte because of the lack of talent (and MJ could say screw this and sell them); but Memphis moreso because it’s a bum market that no one wants to play in and isnt exactly booming economically. Memphis has some really nice young pieces; their best bet is catch fire quickly and become the next San Antonio (not easy).
 

tarheelhockey

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I think this super team issue with the NBA will eventually cause problems.

Back to the thread topic -- it ultimately causes problems with ownership. There is a HUGE difference between owning the Lakers and owning the Grizzlies. Like, even bigger than the lack of parity in the other sports.

If you buy the Coyotes, you can conceivably have a plan to build up a winning franchise. That is flat-out not possible if you buy the Grizzlies... and that's an awful lot of money to spend just to be sniffing the same air as people who are actually playing to win. Yeah, you're going to get that TV money and you get to rub elbows with the stars. But imagine spending $1.3 billion (current Grizzlies franchise value as of February 2020, per Forbes) ... imagine spending $1.3 billion to be a joke and a loser. Look at the hits MJ takes as owner of the Hornets, where he seems like a guy who's just saddled with a responsibility he doesn't actually enjoy. How many prospective buyers could there possibly be for that "opportunity"?

I have to think that corporations are the only real options, and this isn't a very good time to try and convince a corporation to make a ten-figure commitment.
 

gstommylee

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Back to the thread topic -- it ultimately causes problems with ownership. There is a HUGE difference between owning the Lakers and owning the Grizzlies. Like, even bigger than the lack of parity in the other sports.

If you buy the Coyotes, you can conceivably have a plan to build up a winning franchise. That is flat-out not possible if you buy the Grizzlies... and that's an awful lot of money to spend just to be sniffing the same air as people who are actually playing to win. Yeah, you're going to get that TV money and you get to rub elbows with the stars. But imagine spending $1.3 billion (current Grizzlies franchise value as of February 2020, per Forbes) ... imagine spending $1.3 billion to be a joke and a loser. Look at the hits MJ takes as owner of the Hornets, where he seems like a guy who's just saddled with a responsibility he doesn't actually enjoy. How many prospective buyers could there possibly be for that "opportunity"?

I have to think that corporations are the only real options, and this isn't a very good time to try and convince a corporation to make a ten-figure commitment.

Memphis is one of two that i am aware of that has a market issue. Olearns being the other one.
 
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BKIslandersFan

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Wonder if Bill Foley, with his minority stake in T-Mobile Arena, can stop NBA tenant?

Of course if he is the owner, then there is no issue.
 

HisIceness

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Back to the thread topic -- it ultimately causes problems with ownership. There is a HUGE difference between owning the Lakers and owning the Grizzlies. Like, even bigger than the lack of parity in the other sports.

If you buy the Coyotes, you can conceivably have a plan to build up a winning franchise. That is flat-out not possible if you buy the Grizzlies... and that's an awful lot of money to spend just to be sniffing the same air as people who are actually playing to win. Yeah, you're going to get that TV money and you get to rub elbows with the stars. But imagine spending $1.3 billion (current Grizzlies franchise value as of February 2020, per Forbes) ... imagine spending $1.3 billion to be a joke and a loser. Look at the hits MJ takes as owner of the Hornets, where he seems like a guy who's just saddled with a responsibility he doesn't actually enjoy. How many prospective buyers could there possibly be for that "opportunity"?

I have to think that corporations are the only real options, and this isn't a very good time to try and convince a corporation to make a ten-figure commitment.

This is such a great point.

What's even more true, look at teams like the Pacers, Blazers, Jazz, and Nuggets. These 4 teams are usually always playoff contenders but are they ever championship contenders? The Jazz, Pacers, and Blazers were somewhat in the 90's but all 3 of these teams couldn't beat Jordan and his Bulls, the Pacers also had good teams in the early 10's but LeBron always beat them. These 3 plus the Nuggets never tank but they never get anywhere, just round 2 at best. The Blazers have put together a nice roster w/ CJ McCullom and Damian Lillard but how are they going to get past the Lakers or the KD/Steph/Klay Warriors? They can't (and didn't w/ the Warriors). Same with the Jazz, always losing to Golden State or a Houston team w/ Harden who then also were fodder for the Warriors.

Then you have examples like the Durant-led Thunder and Shaq-led Magic. Both of these franchises crippled hard after their stars left despite having decent rosters and a "Robin" to "Batman" (Penny to Shaq, and Westbrook to Durant). The Thunder stayed competitive and even brought in Paul George but they failed in 3 straight 1st round matchups. The Magic made the playoffs a few times after Shaq left but never became anything until Howard showed up, and then he left and they went back to nothing. The Cavaliers lived and died with LeBron both iterations, the Heat did as well to some extent after he left, but Miami is a destination market that they've got little worries about players leaving in free agency unless some crazy shit happens.

The NBA is such a star-driven league that one man like LeBron can single-handidly carry a Cavaliers team full of bad contracts and injuries past teams with better rosters minus the superstar, as the 4th seed, in a league where the top-2 teams in each conference tend to play for the conference crown. How is that enjoyable? Is it any wonder so many teams tank? It's the only way to have a chance in the league. Having a guy like Paul George (a very good player) as your star to build around doesn't get you Championships, you have to have the superstar to really compete and then you have to add the pieces to do so, all while trying to keep the main guy happy.

Meanwhile as you said, a team like the Coyotes can do anything if they sneak into the Stanley Cup Playoffs and you can build from there. The Hurricanes are a good example right now of this. The Blue Jackets took down the 62 win Lightning in the first round last season. The Predators as an 8th seed went to the Finals, the Kings won as an 8th seed. That doesn't happen in the NBA. If you're not a 3 or higher seed you've got next to no shot unless LeBron is on the roster.
 

HisIceness

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Wanted to bring this up too because it just came to me.

The NBA advertised heavily the beginning of this season on TNT and the TNT-owned networks about parity, and how the league was wide-open and it was anyones game.

Before Covid shut everything down, who were the contenders? Milwaukee and the two L.A. teams w/ the Lakers being IMO a step ahead of the Clippers, so likely a Bucks-Lakers Final. But if you saw these ads and didn't know any better, you'd think there were 5-10 teams that had a real shot at winning the championship. There was better 'parity' last season and even then it wasn't much.

You have to get a superstar to compete in this league, and many of the smaller markets can't afford them and/or they want to leave for brighter lights. Giannis w/ the Bucks could be an exception but right now history would suggest he's leaving for Los Angeles.
 

BKIslandersFan

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Wanted to bring this up too because it just came to me.

The NBA advertised heavily the beginning of this season on TNT and the TNT-owned networks about parity, and how the league was wide-open and it was anyones game.

Before Covid shut everything down, who were the contenders? Milwaukee and the two L.A. teams w/ the Lakers being IMO a step ahead of the Clippers, so likely a Bucks-Lakers Final. But if you saw these ads and didn't know any better, you'd think there were 5-10 teams that had a real shot at winning the championship. There was better 'parity' last season and even then it wasn't much.

You have to get a superstar to compete in this league, and many of the smaller markets can't afford them and/or they want to leave for brighter lights. Giannis w/ the Bucks could be an exception but right now history would suggest he's leaving for Los Angeles.
Yes, Lakers and Clippers were the favorites, but they were never the runaway favorites like the Warriors were.
 

TheMoreYouKnow

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The Warriors were a joke of a franchise for a *long* time. They made the playoffs once between 1994 and 2013. Yes, the Bay Area is a big market...but that didn't really matter for a long time, just like it doesn't seem to matter for the Knicks these days. The Cavs were seen as a moribund franchise in a decrepit Rust Belt city with most of their franchise history marked by mediocrity or worse before the arrival of Lebron. What were the Mavs before Dirk showed up? A long-time joke.

I don't think the NBA is that bad a bet for lesser team owners. It's a sport where one, two guys can make a heck of a difference and every team has the means of obtaining one or two great players. The fact some teams totally suck at that for a long time...doesn't mean it's hopeless. I mean in the NHL we have seen the story of the Oilers and Islanders who seemingly drafted in the top 5 on a near annual basis for over a decade and still haven't really gotten over the hump. Whose fault is that other than the guys who made their often bad draft picks?
 

Cynicaps

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Memphis is one of two that i am aware of that has a market issue. Olearns being the other one.

New Orleans is to the NBA what Arizona is to the NHL: A boondoggle that the league doesn't want to give up on as it would signal failure. Witness the following:

  • Stern vetoing the proposed sale of the team by Shinn to Clay Bennett and company while the then-Hornets were in OKC post-Katrina under the fear that "abandoning" a New Orleans market that hadn't embraced the NBA would make the NBA look bad.
  • While dodging the black eye of leaving New Orleans after a natural disaster, they merely gave themselves one just as big with leaving Seattle. A larger market sacrificed to save a smaller basket case market, where have I heard this story before?
  • Shinn ended up in so much trouble, the NBA had to bail him out a la the NHL and Moyes. At least the NBA had a slam dunk local prospect in the Bensons to buy them. Had there been no local buyers, who knows how long the NBA would've kept at it rather than let the team move.
  • I would not be shocked if last year's draft lottery was cooked to favor the Pelicans given how post-AD that they needed some sort of good news to keep the faith with the fan base.
  • A contrast: While the NHL has done all that it can to not have an ASG in Glendale, the NBA had 3 ASG's in New Orleans in 9 years: One as a welcome, one as a gift to the Bensons, and one as a last minute landing spot after the HB2 debacle in Charlotte. They must really like New Orleans as a destination even if their attendance is medicore at best.
With Tom Benson no longer with us and the prospect that there might be nobody to take on both the Saints and the Pelicans, you have to wonder what the endgame for the Pelicans is. Would the NBA keep going to the mat for a small, not so wealthy market when they can make more money elsewhere?
 
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gstommylee

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New Orleans is to the NBA what Arizona is to the NHL: A boondoggle that the league doesn't want to give up on as it would signal failure. Witness the following:

  • Stern vetoing the proposed sale of the team by Shinn to Clay Bennett and company while the then-Hornets were in OKC post-Katrina under the fear that "abandoning" a New Orleans market that hadn't embraced the NBA would make the NBA look bad.
  • While dodging the black eye of leaving New Orleans after a natural disaster, they merely gave themselves one just as big with leaving Seattle. A larger market sacrificed to save a smaller basket case market, where have I heard this story before?
  • Shinn ended up in so much trouble, the NBA had to bail him out a la the NHL and Moyes. At least the NBA had a slam dunk local prospect in the Bensons to buy them. Had there been no local buyers, who knows how long the NBA would've kept at it rather than let the team move.
  • I would not be shocked if last year's draft lottery was cooked to favor the Pelicans given how post-AD that they needed some sort of good news to keep the faith with the fan base.
  • A contrast: While the NHL has done all that it can to not have an ASG in Glendale, the NBA had 3 ASG's in New Orleans in 9 years: One as a welcome, one as a gift to the Bensons, and one as a last minute landing spot after the HB2 debacle in Charlotte. They must really like New Orleans as a destination even if their attendance is medicore at best.
With Tom Benson no longer with us and the prospect that there might be nobody to take on both the Saints and the Pelicans, you have to wonder what the endgame for the Pelicans is. Would the NBA keep going to the mat for a small, not so wealthy market when they can make more money elsewhere?

Tom Benson's 3rd wife Gayle Benson has control of both the NFL and NBA teams but who knows what are her long term plans for the NBA franchise. There was a huge legal fight over the two franchises by Tom's kids over the control of the franchises. I'm guessing after her, it'll probably either go to Tom's kids then who knows what the kids would do or she would out right sell both to some other group.

The thing is the coyote's problem is they have an arena issue where as Olreans has a market issue. Two way different issues.

The concern the NBA would have with Olearns is how much will the team fetch if Gayle Benson were to sell that and the saints franchise. The NFL team is the $$$ piece. The NBA team on its own probably won't sell as much as the NBA would hope it would if a sale were to happen due to the market issue. The best bet for Orleans to remain where they are is Someone buys both franchises as a package then having the two franchises being sold separately to separate groups. It wouldn't look good for NBA if the NBA new Orleans team only goes for 300m or less in a sale where as (let say the team is sold and relocated to Seattle for example) the NBA can get a much higher franchise value for the team vs staying.
 
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