Seth Jones next contract

[Drake744]

He can ask anything he wishes. And they always ask high if his ultimate goal is 6 to 7 mil he will need to ask for more and negotiate down. Of course hes not gonna get what he asks for just like Dougie Hamilton did not get what he asked for last year. He was in a similar situation young guy not playing top pair but projected to do that. Boston best offer was 6 years at 5.5 which he rejected was traded and signed in Calgary for 6 years 5.75 in essence. Hamilton could not be signed for what he was asking they made there best offer and got what they could. Hamilton then signs for 250k more and same term...... This tells me Hamilton did not want to play behind and wait for top pair. This could well be the case here too, except Jones will have to wait 5 year min to get his chance.

If we recall Jones was a little miffed at dropping to #4 in the drafts so there is some ego there. Its impossible to think he would ask or accept anything less than Hamilton got "Hes Seth Jones". Im not knocking the guy or his talent but pointing out that everything points to him requiring 5 to 6 mil for sure. And to get that he would start at 7.5 to 8. I additionally do not think Poile will do that it will create cap issues when he does. Sure they can fit both under the cap if it remains at 71 but the cap may fall. It also ties Poiles hands in making any moves to upgrade the O or the back-up goalie or plan for that 1c or 2c in a life after Fish and Riberio.

Everyone pretty much agrees that FF is the primary focus first but whats done there will determine what Poile can do with Jones. But we know Poile and hes going to want term and its going to take 5 mil each min as a starting point or worse. If there is a team out there and I think there are 3 with there eye close on Jones. Oil, Sabres, Leafs. They could all well offer that 6.5 to 7 mil offersheet. All three need that face on there blueline The Oil and Sabres have there young offense set and well the leafs are rebuilding and do crazy crap. Teams that would like to sheet him but probably can't due to cap or other concerns. Boston, Philly, NJ, Florida. The point is Poile will have to do some real high stepping to pull off keeping Jones from where I see it and he has prepared the team to live without him.

Okay fair enough but this is David Poile we're talking about and he all but soiled himself at the opportunity to draft Jones. He'll pay whatever he has to in order to keep him around because that's what he wants. 5, 6, 6.5 mil, whatever. Although I still think it's a reach to have Jones at anything over 6 AAV. If cap space becomes an issue I think Poile would rather trade someone like Ellis and a forward to create more space to accommodate a Jones cap hit down the road than let him leave. We have to remember Poile had Jones at #1 on their draft board. Not MacKinnon, Barkov or Drouin. That means for all intents and purposes we would've drafted Jones first overall if we won the lottery anyway. He's essentially a #1 overall pick in the eyes of our GM. He'll do what he's got to do and worry about the cap stuff later. I don't think trading Jones is even anywhere near being on our radar.

 

[token grinder]

Bumping this with a link from the main board re Barkov since they are from the same draft year and had similar mixed results and growing pains as 18 year olds.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2005017



Still link anything over a bridge and Jones contract is 6 mil AAV on a real dollar sliding scale.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

jones has done nothing to make that kind of money. paying off potential is a recipe for disaster.

 

[Drake744]

jones has done nothing to make that kind of money. paying off potential is a recipe for disaster.

All 30 teams have to do it in one way or another.

 

[Byrddog]

All 30 teams have to do it in one way or another.

And there in is the issue. I agree with TG, Jones is going to get paid it will tell a lot what happens between now and the end of the season what Poile does. Before when I had hopes this would be a better team I was fine about moving Jones. But now With his age it would make sense to keep him if Poile does in fact have to do a rebuild. Either way Jones is prime pickins to have a offer sheet thrown his way. This almost assures he will be at 6 or better IMO. If DP trys to bridge in the end it will not work out well.

 

[token grinder]

jones has done nothing to make that kind of money. paying off potential is a recipe for disaster.

I do not disagree He is a 4-4.25 mil defenceman right now. But the new thing is locking up high draft picks for forever it seems

 

[Paranoid Android]

Jones isn't having the season I think he wants. I see a bridge deal for him. It's different from Barkov because he's the undisputed #1C on an up and coming team. Jones is buried on the depth chart and still being spoon fed minutes. Unless something changes my prediction is 2x$4M

 

[Byrddog]

Jones isn't having the season I think he wants. I see a bridge deal for him. It's different from Barkov because he's the undisputed #1C on an up and coming team. Jones is buried on the depth chart and still being spoon fed minutes. Unless something changes my prediction is 2x$4M

There is no way Jones accepts 4 mil. Over on the main Board there talking about Barkov for 8 years guesses from 6 mil to 10 mil. Aves fans are chiming in also with concerns about McK's next one. If you draft top 5 you better be prepaired to pay. Sheltering Jones has not really allowed him to progress or digress really and as someone else said Jones still has that aura about him. Any bridge less than 5 will go to arbitration Poile will not be able cheap out on this one.

 

[GeauxPreds]

5 would be the max I could tolerate seeing us spend on jones right now. He just hasn't played well enough to justify more. I would say 4 but even despite the falling canadian dollar spending is going up all around the league.

 

[Paranoid Android]

There is no way Jones accepts 4 mil. Over on the main Board there talking about Barkov for 8 years guesses from 6 mil to 10 mil. Aves fans are chiming in also with concerns about McK's next one. If you draft top 5 you better be prepaired to pay. Sheltering Jones has not really allowed him to progress or digress really and as someone else said Jones still has that aura about him. Any bridge less than 5 will go to arbitration Poile will not be able cheap out on this one.

10 million

Let's wait and see what Barkov gets before going nuts. However, an 8 year deal is not comparable to a bridge deal. Bridges will always be less.

If we end up buying some of Jones' UFA years, yeah we'll have to pony up big time. But I think he gambles with a short contract. Again, just a hunch.

FYI - Jones doesn't have arbitration rights. All he can do is hold out for an offer sheet

 

[Byrddog]

10 million

Let's wait and see what Barkov gets before going nuts. However, an 8 year deal is not comparable to a bridge deal. Bridges will always be less.

If we end up buying some of Jones' UFA years, yeah we'll have to pony up big time. But I think he gambles with a short contract. Again, just a hunch.

FYI - Jones doesn't have arbitration rights. All he can do is hold out for an offer sheet

You are correct I forgot about the 18 year old penalty and the 18 year old not being eligible until there 4th year.

Oh well so he holds out. Theres not a chance in hell Jones does anything around 4 mil. His ELC could have been worth north of 3 mil. With what Hamilton got last year and the ignorant amounts that the guys he was drafted around are going to get. I do not think the guy is worth 3 mil just as I didn't think the two singed last summer were worth 4 mil.

If he is on this team next fall he will be paid 5.5 or more. Which is a crime considering what we are paying Josi, but he is not Josi he has a mother in one pocket and an agent well I will not go there. Then there is his ego, remember how disappointed he was that he fell in the draft. So we will see.

And I did not suggest paying Barkov 10 mil it was someone else on the main board. But he and McKinnon are going to cash in. The GM's in this league are as free with money as the US Congress. Many times to there own shortsightedness. If Poile gives Jones close to what he wants this team is going to be handicapped.

 

[kypredsfan]

I'd trade Jones before giving him anywhere near $6 mil per year.

 

[Byrddog]

I'd trade Jones before giving him anywhere near $6 mil per year.

I agree but its not up to us. The crappy thing about it if is not over paid he can hold out and will probably get that kind of offer sheet. There are teams out there that would give the 1st's to get there 1D. It will sure be interesting. Some of the numbers being discussed for others Johnny Hockey Monahan, Barkov, McKinnion they are going to influence Jones and Forsbergs contracts.

 

[Enoch]

Frankly, I think you guys are way off the mark. Your numbers are conjectured and worst case scenario. They aren't based on recent comparables JUST signed this year. They aren't based on contracts Poile has signed. They aren't based in reality.

We just signed two defenseman .... They are far better comparables in salary than anything being proposed.

Jones would need to explode rest of season or in the playoffs and sign a non-bridge deal to get anywhere close to 6 million AAV.

 

[LCPreds]

Ah if only Barkov had been there at #4 as he was expected to be.

 

[PredsHabs]

Ah if only Barkov had been there at #4 as he was expected to be.

That was the most miserable draft day for me because I knew where Poile was going as soon as the forwards were taken 1,2,3. That was our best chance for the Center we so badly needed but didn't work our way, yet again.

 

[originalpredfan]

I know there are those on this board who have a much higher opinion of Jones potential than I do, but I think his greatest potential is as a trade asset for us to get a true first line center. He will not garner one by himself as we will have to add other pieces to a deal to get someone to bite. I agree he has many assets, but I disagree that he will develop into a great defensman. He continually seems to make the same types of mistakes and he is definitely not aggressive. I honestly question his heart for the game. I know some will disagree with me, but he will just be a serviceable D-man in the future.

 

[Enoch]

I know there are those on this board who have a much higher opinion of Jones potential than I do, but I think his greatest potential is as a trade asset for us to get a true first line center. He will not garner one by himself as we will have to add other pieces to a deal to get someone to bite. I agree he has many assets, but I disagree that he will develop into a great defensman. He continually seems to make the same types of mistakes and he is definitely not aggressive. I honestly question his heart for the game. I know some will disagree with me, but he will just be a serviceable D-man in the future.

Completely disagree with the merely serviceable comments. I do agree he is the best trade chip as he should have significant value to the right team.

 

[Drake744]

I know there are those on this board who have a much higher opinion of Jones potential than I do, but I think his greatest potential is as a trade asset for us to get a true first line center. He will not garner one by himself as we will have to add other pieces to a deal to get someone to bite. I agree he has many assets, but I disagree that he will develop into a great defensman. He continually seems to make the same types of mistakes and he is definitely not aggressive. I honestly question his heart for the game. I know some will disagree with me, but he will just be a serviceable D-man in the future.

I would absolutely agree with this....if he was 24 years old. He has also had a comical string of bad partners on his designated 3rd pairing.

 

[originalpredfan]

I would absolutely agree with this....if he was 24 years old. He has also had a comical string of bad partners on his designated 3rd pairing.

I can see your point about his age, but since he has played close to 200 NHL games and all we can go on is our personal assessment of his growth potential I feel that there must be a trade partner out there that would consider him as a top pairing potential D-man. I believe his trade value now is at it's highest level and if we wait it will diminish. Just my opinion.

 

[Byrddog]

Do you guys not think that as an organization we have held Jones up. He is with no doubt had the highest ceiling of potential of anyone the Preds has drafted. Was it a mistake to keep him here the first year burning a year of his ELC? Has sheltering him on the 3rd pair helped or hindered his development? If he had played a year in the AHL could he have won the calder when he came up a year later? If delayed that year he would now be in year two of his ELC and could he have been ready to pass Ellis next season?

As it stands now we have no answers to any of that. Poile is going into negoations and is going to have to pay for unrealized potential AGAIN. It is further complicated in my opinion by other teams who would poach the guy in a heartbeat if they get a chance. Now your gonna say offersheets do not happen. Well Weber says Hi hes doin fine on his fat frontloaded cap recapture nutbusting contract. And if we think Poile can bridge this guy on the cheap without a jackwagon GM offering him bank we are fooling ourselves.

 

[glenngineer]

Thing is Byrd, Jones had to go back to juniors after he was drafted because of his age so it was either there or here, no option for the AHL.

 

[Byrddog]

Thing is Byrd, Jones had to go back to juniors after he was drafted because of his age so it was either there or here, no option for the AHL.

Even better..Yeah yeah I know he had nothing else to prove there. The issue now is his ELC is done and Poile has to make a decision really based on licking his finger and sticking it in the wind. This is Nashville not Toronto or Philly every signing from now on cap wise has stability implications for the franchise. And while we and a lot of other folks think Jones is destined for top 2 pairings he has not proven that yet but on rep and outside interest Poile will have to make a decision. And you and I know how his opinion is skewed toward defensemen. Poile can not afford to hjand out another long term big contract to have it fail. Or worse yet give him more money than any other defenseman on the team not named Weber and have him still tool arround on the third pair. Unless his contract is 5 mil or better I doubt Jones will sign, then he waits for a offer sheet or holds out.

 

[Enoch]

I do agree the pairing he is on, Bartley, Volchenkov, and jackman, is just a bunch of crap. Jackman is the best of the bunch, but he is what he is at this point - a slow, physical, third pairing defenseman. They are clearly holding him back.

He is playing second pairing minutes via TOI due to his special teams play.

We can't give him more than 5.5 million per year unless their is a substantial change in his play ROS and in the playoffs or a non-bridge contract and a significant upturn in opportunity with success ROS. If he continues to play in the role he is in now, I can't see him cashing in on this negotiation.

 

[glenngineer]

Even better..Yeah yeah I know he had nothing else to prove there. The issue now is his ELC is done and Poile has to make a decision really based on licking his finger and sticking it in the wind. This is Nashville not Toronto or Philly every signing from now on cap wise has stability implications for the franchise. And while we and a lot of other folks think Jones is destined for top 2 pairings he has not proven that yet but on rep and outside interest Poile will have to make a decision. And you and I know how his opinion is skewed toward defensemen. Poile can not afford to hjand out another long term big contract to have it fail. Or worse yet give him more money than any other defenseman on the team not named Weber and have him still tool arround on the third pair. Unless his contract is 5 mil or better I doubt Jones will sign, then he waits for a offer sheet or holds out.

Agreed for the most part. I don't think he gets offer sheeted for a few reasons, what team is going to offer him big money for the reasons you and many others state, he hasn't proven he's a top pairing defenseman. So if you're a GM do you take that chance and give him a big contract AND lose the draft pick compensation required because of said contract?

The one thing I'll admit about Poile is he knows defensemen. He will always be gun shy when it comes to moving his upper tier guys because of what happened with Stevens. On the flip side he has to make a decision, who to move forward with on the blue line. Who is going to get you the most value in a trade if you move them? At this point you'd have to say either Weber or Josi. Josi isn't going anywhere and if he does I think there'd be a serious mutiny amongst the fans. Weber has the recapture penalty looming over his head. Do you take the chance that he plays through the end of his contract which would place him at 40 when it's over or do you hold on to him? Do you move any or all of Ellis, Ekholm and Jones?

You always talk about the turn around Buffalo has made, well, the way we do that is move everyone on the roster who is above age 30 on this team. It may not be pretty but you still have a pretty good core of young players, especially on D to survive and build around while hopefully transitioning the forward core to more of how the NHL is being played today. The only player I might consider keeping from a leadership perspective who is over 30 is Fisher. Remember this, the races are tight and veterans can and will go for high prices at the deadline. Remember we paid a 1st for Gaustad so guys like him, Nystrom, Ribeiro, Weber and Rinne should all be moved. Yes, I said Weber and Rinne. Weber will land us dynamic forwards that we need to move forward as a team. Rinne needs a change of scenery and we need to get out from that contract before it kills us.

None of these decisions will be popular by most around here but we can't get by with tweeners at forward. Guys like Jarnkrok are middling players and while you need role players, I'll take a guy like Salomaki over him any day of the week. Build around Forsberg and Neal up front. Fiala if he continues to develop like he has been recently is another one you build around. Kamenev seems to be a budding player and will probably make a very solid number 2 center. Land a number 1 center via trade. Get Vesey on board. Can a team with Forsberg, Neal, Fiala and Vesey as your top 6 wingers be effective? If you don't feel that they are you have draft picks or prospects acquired for the vets you've moved.

The big question is what to do with guys like Wilson and Smith? I know you're not a fan of Smith but if you keep Fisher around and move all three of them to the third line you have some size, some secondary scoring and now you may have some balance to your team. And at the end of next season you move Sissons in to the third line role as he appears to be a similar style player like Fisher. You have Salomaki and Bourque as the wings on your fourth line. Figure out a fourth line center somehow. The top 4 on D is Josi, Jones, Ellis and Ekholm. 3 of them are excellent skaters and are all good with the puck. Find some bottom pairing guys that have some grit to their game and have been around a while and you're good on D. The big hole is in goal and right now with the way Rinne is playing, you find a stop gap for this year and either hope Saros is ready quicker than we think or we find a veteran who can make the stops you need him to make. If Dallas is getting by with guys like Lehtonen and Niemi there's got to be someone out there that will work.

I get more excited thinking about the future of this team than the now of this team. Would we miss Weber, absolutely but we get what we need up front if we move him. We also find out if Jones becomes what he should and even if he doesn't fully reach his potential, he's still going to be pretty good and you still have Josi as the leader of the d-corp.

Fun to think about at the very least.