SERIES DISCUSSION: Metro Semis | Pens vs. Rangers | There Will Be Blood (Not Theirs)

[IcedCapp]

Rangers filled their first thread hours ago. This doesn't bode well.

Damn, we really are losers.

 

[pensfan71]

not that I don't want to win game 1, but I always thought game 2 was the key.

I just wanna come out of NY tied. Come out of Pitt tied. If we can pull off game 5, we have a shot. If we go down 2 games in this series, there's no coming back. We have to be down 1 or tied.

 

[Coastal Kev]

 

[drpepper]

Is it true the Pens had the #1 score-adjusted fenwick in the league over the last 25 games?

Heard it on the radio, not sure if I trust it. If true, it's sort of really predictive in the long run.

Pens have been the best in the last 25 games. (You can play with how many games and looking at Corsi and Fenwick with different adjustments here.)

Their biggest problem has been a very low shooting percentage. The low shooting percentage appears to be highly correlated to the injuries (using man games lost).

On one hand, the Pens should expect to have their shooting percentage move towards league (and their own) average in X amount of games. However, it is not certain that X amount of games will be enough for a 7 game series. And on the other hand, if the low shooting percentage is related to injuries than the recovery of Malkin will be important as is the lack of Letang.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Pens have been the best in the last 25 games. (You can play with how many games and looking at Corsi and Fenwick with different adjustments here.)

Their biggest problem has been a very low shooting percentage. The low shooting percentage appears to be highly correlated to the injuries (using man games lost).

On one hand, the Pens should expect to have their shooting percentage move towards league (and their own) average in X amount of games. However, it is not certain that X amount of games will be enough for a 7 game series. And on the other hand, if the low shooting percentage is related to injuries than the recovery of Malkin will be important as is the lack of Letang.

Just pointing out again. They were playing almost exclusively non-playoff teams during that period. Unless I am mistaken the Rangers made the playoffs, so I am not sure how relevant those numbers are even if they are a fair reflection of play.

 

[drpepper]

Just pointing out again. They were playing almost exclusively non-playoff teams during that period. Unless I am mistaken the Rangers made the playoffs, so I am not sure how relevant those numbers are even if they are a fair reflection of play.

That doesn't matter.

Last 25 game fenwick is predictive of success in the post-season regardless of the SOS in the last 25 games. The relationship exists. Now it isn't a perfect correlation so not all teams that have good last-25 games will win, but it is one positive indicator.

As is the fact that the Rangers have had very high shooting percentage that appears to be trending downward.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Given the total lack of roster change at forward, I don't like our chances this series.

It was always going to be a long shot, but we've chosen to do everything exactly the same as we did during our epic slide.

Quelle surprise...not.

The Islanders kicking Washington's butt, Calgary winning their game, the Sens being VERY close...can the Pens shock the world too? We shall see.

Here's the thing. Can we? Yes. Yes we can. This team can choose to "flip the switch" any time it damn well pleases. If this team "WANTS" to...it can demolish the Rangers.

Here's the issue: it will take EVERY player making the decision to play for 60 MINUTES. Historically speaking...that is very unlikely to happen.

Flip the switch? You make this team sound like the 1982-83 Edmonton Oilers. We have TWO guys, only two, who can flip a switch and be great. One is injured and has not looked himself for weeks, and the other will be blanketed like Linus all series long.

Isles, Flames, Sens...those teams have HEART. We've needed a transplant for years now.

Is it true the Pens had the #1 score-adjusted fenwick in the league over the last 25 games?

Heard it on the radio, not sure if I trust it. If true, it's sort of really predictive in the long run.

English translation, por favor?

 

[pensfan71]

Didn't we also suck in the last 25 games...like bottom feeder suck...

Hopefully, we can finish chances tn though. Horny, Flower and Martin are the 3 guys I'm watching tn to see if we can actually pull off a miracle.

If Horny isn't in front of that net, we are ****ed.

If Flower isn't MVP like for this series, we are beyond ****ed.

Martin is the only PMD we have that I trust right now, so he better show up

 

[Beau Knows]

With how deep Lundqvist stays in his net, I wonder if that will make Hornqvist even more effective. He might be able to get right in the crease at times.

 

[Beau Knows]

Does feel kind of nice being underdogs for once though I will say. No expectations on this team, if we lose in 4 nobody will be shocked. Nothing to lose, should be less stressful to watch than usual.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

We have five wins in our last 17 games:

- at home vs. Edm (when we blew a 4-0 lead and won late)

- at AZ

- at home vs. AZ

- at home vs. SJ (shootout)

- at Buf


We're not playing a non-playoff team.

 

[drpepper]

Didn't we also suck in the last 25 games...like bottom feeder suck...

Hopefully, we can finish chances tn though. Horny, Flower and Martin are the 3 guys I'm watching tn to see if we can actually pull off a miracle.

If Horny isn't in front of that net, we are ****ed.

If Flower isn't MVP like for this series, we are beyond ****ed.

Martin is the only PMD we have that I trust right now, so he better show up

The Pens "sucked" due to a very low shooting percentage (converting on their chances) and more shots against (compared to the previous 10 games before) and lower save percentage

Most of those stats are highly correlated to injuries (MGL) and likely explained by decrease of talent on the blueline and fatigue of the remaining defenders playing with 5 men. Injuries to Malkin are also likely a factor.

None of the stats say that the Pens are going to win, but they do suggest that the Pens are a better team than the last part of the season showcased.

 

[Coastal Kev]

We have five wins in our last 17 games:

- at home vs. Edm (when we blew a 4-0 lead and won late)

- at AZ

- at home vs. AZ

- at home vs. SJ (shootout)

- at Buf


We're not playing a non-playoff team.

But.. but Corsi says the Pens lead the league in imaginary goals. They simply need to start clicking their skates together 3 times before each game.

 

[pensfan71]

With how deep Lundqvist stays in his net, I wonder if that will make Hornqvist even more effective. He might be able to get right in the crease at times.

That's why this is the lineup I want.

Perron-Sid-Horny
Comeau-Geno-BB
Kuni-Sutter-Downie
Winnik-Lappy-Adams

All of those lines have a player that'll go to the net. Kunitz is a corpse though, and it'd be great if he was shot into the moon for Kappy

Does feel kind of nice being underdogs for once though I will say. No expectations on this team, if we lose in 4 nobody will be shocked. Nothing to lose, should be less stressful to watch than usual.

I'd say I agree, but I fully expect us to come out with no heart anyways.

 

[PensBandwagonerNo272*]

With how deep Lundqvist stays in his net, I wonder if that will make Hornqvist even more effective. He might be able to get right in the crease at times.

Well that's illegal but what it might to is cause Lundqvist to come out a bit and play out of his comfort zone.

 

[IcedCapp]

Pens have been the best in the last 25 games. (You can play with how many games and looking at Corsi and Fenwick with different adjustments here.)

Their biggest problem has been a very low shooting percentage. The low shooting percentage appears to be highly correlated to the injuries (using man games lost).

On one hand, the Pens should expect to have their shooting percentage move towards league (and their own) average in X amount of games. However, it is not certain that X amount of games will be enough for a 7 game series. And on the other hand, if the low shooting percentage is related to injuries than the recovery of Malkin will be important as is the lack of Letang.

Thanks for all the info, Doc. Hard for me to look stuff up, I'm basically relegated to audio stuff for all but a few minutes at a time.

Still think this is Rangers in a walk, but I guess I leave more room to "if they can get healthy, maybe..."

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Does feel kind of nice being underdogs for once though I will say. No expectations on this team, if we lose in 4 nobody will be shocked. Nothing to lose, should be less stressful to watch than usual.

I was thinking the same.

I am expecting to lose. If we win bonus. And unlike this fan base, the Ranger fans will be suicidal, which will be fun to watch. If not, I save a lot of money on playoff tickets. Win/Win.

This year is the ultimate reality of the phrase 'playing with house money'.

 

[WickedWrister]

Either way, it will be an honor going into battle with you gentlemen. God speed

 

[Beau Knows]

Well that's illegal but what it might to is cause Lundqvist to come out a bit and play out of his comfort zone.

Kind of, the refs are just supposed to stop play right, no penalty? I would see what we can get away with, they won't call it every time. And even if it doesn't result in goals it could distract the Rangers D trying to get him out of there and piss off Lundqivst.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

The Pens "sucked" due to a very low shooting percentage (converting on their chances) and more shots against (compared to the previous 10 games before) and lower save percentage

Most of those stats are highly correlated to injuries (MGL) and likely explained by decrease of talent on the blueline and fatigue of the remaining defenders playing with 5 men. Injuries to Malkin are also likely a factor.

None of the stats say that the Pens are going to win, but they do suggest that the Pens are a better team than the last part of the season showcased.

What do those stats say about playing without a coach, or coaching staff, for the last half decade?

 

[IcedCapp]

We have five wins in our last 17 games:

- at home vs. Edm (when we blew a 4-0 lead and won late)

- at AZ

- at home vs. AZ

- at home vs. SJ (shootout)

- at Buf


We're not playing a non-playoff team.

The information we're discussing adjusts for that. Dr.Pepper is doing a fantastic job of explaining. I haven't really changed my views on this series, but it's giving me pause.

(And I'll just repeat what I said yesterday, but I think it got deleted: a team can certainly be lucky/unlucky over a large sample size. The definition of luck isn't really sample-size dependent, beyond the fact that, as your size approaches infinity, luck evens out. It's certainly possible to be lucky/unlucky for large stretches of the season. Ryan Getzlaf had an incredibly unlucky season a few years back, for example)

 

[ColePens]

i'm at work - someone get part 2 up