#Senswatch Part VII: Now starring Dorion as Simple Jack
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AvsFan29
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- Mar 15, 2018
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Hijacking top spot for our pick chances:
With only 22 games left for OTT / LA / EDM, it looks like Ottawa has a very high chance of finishing 31st or 30th.
OTT is up 3 points on LA, and 7 points on EDM.
For EDM to finish behind OTT, they would need to win 8 points LESS than OTT over the next 22 games.
OTT has most likely become significantly weaker at the deadline, with potentially losing 3 players that make up 41% of their scoring.
If you look at the Sens P% (.408), they project to gain 18 / 44 remaining points.
For Edmonton to gain 8 points less than Ottawa over the next 22 games, they would need to win no more than 10 points out of a possible 44.
For Edmonton to have a realistic shot at finishing below Ottawa, they can't win more than 5 of their final 22 games.
EDM / OTT have 2 games yet to be played.
Edmonton will have a hard time losing to OTT, and winning those 2 games would likely ruin their chances at 31st.
If Edmonton wins those 2 games against Ottawa, they will have to lose 17 of their 20 remaining games.
If you consider that these point totals are based on point projections for an Ottawa team that had those 3 forwards in their line up, it's safe to say they don't hold a .408 P% for the rest of the year.
It's pretty safe to say that Edmonton can't play bad enough to finish below Ottawa.
31st/30th finish extremely likely.
You can see why a 31st place finish is so important.
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OTT is up 3 points on LA, and 7 points on EDM.
For EDM to finish behind OTT, they would need to win 8 points LESS than OTT over the next 22 games.
OTT has most likely become significantly weaker at the deadline, with potentially losing 3 players that make up 41% of their scoring.
If you look at the Sens P% (.408), they project to gain 18 / 44 remaining points.
For Edmonton to gain 8 points less than Ottawa over the next 22 games, they would need to win no more than 10 points out of a possible 44.
For Edmonton to have a realistic shot at finishing below Ottawa, they can't win more than 5 of their final 22 games.
EDM / OTT have 2 games yet to be played.
Edmonton will have a hard time losing to OTT, and winning those 2 games would likely ruin their chances at 31st.
If Edmonton wins those 2 games against Ottawa, they will have to lose 17 of their 20 remaining games.
If you consider that these point totals are based on point projections for an Ottawa team that had those 3 forwards in their line up, it's safe to say they don't hold a .408 P% for the rest of the year.
It's pretty safe to say that Edmonton can't play bad enough to finish below Ottawa.
31st/30th finish extremely likely.
You can see why a 31st place finish is so important.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa | 18.5 | 16.5 | 14.4 | 50.6 | ||
| Los Angeles | 13.5 | 13.0 | 12.3 | 33.3 | 27.9 | |
| Detroit | 11.5 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 37.7 | 15.2 |
Mighty Makar
I hate this fu*ken team
- May 24, 2016
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forsbergavs32
Global Moderator
Mighty Makar
I hate this fu*ken team
- May 24, 2016
- 14,758
- 16,048
Mighty Makar
I hate this fu*ken team
- May 24, 2016
- 14,758
- 16,048
Ararana
Registered User
Mighty Makar
I hate this fu*ken team
- May 24, 2016
- 14,758
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agentblack
Registered User
Mighty Makar
I hate this fu*ken team
- May 24, 2016
- 14,758
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That deal was terrible for the Sens. I feel legit terrible for their fans, as I think Dorion is just doing as much damage as he can before he eventually gets fired.
A mid-1st and two prospects, that will probably never see the light of day in the NHL, is a garbage return. There has to have been a better offer than that out there.
And as far as the conditional first goes, it might as well have been two conditional firsts because there is no way Duchene signs with CBus. Come July 1st, he will be in Nashville finalizing a 7 year deal, and beginning to look at houses. He wants to be there, they want him to be there, and all they have to do is trade Turris at some point before next season to make it happen.
A mid-1st and two prospects, that will probably never see the light of day in the NHL, is a garbage return. There has to have been a better offer than that out there.
And as far as the conditional first goes, it might as well have been two conditional firsts because there is no way Duchene signs with CBus. Come July 1st, he will be in Nashville finalizing a 7 year deal, and beginning to look at houses. He wants to be there, they want him to be there, and all they have to do is trade Turris at some point before next season to make it happen.
agentblack
Registered User
Not expecting anything from Duchene tonight, but the rest of the Jackets should win this hands down
CB Joe
Registered User
- Oct 12, 2008
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Duchene wasn't paying attention.
Alex Jones
BIG BOWL 'A CHILI!!
At the end of the day when everyone knows you have to move someone, the offers aren't going to be great.
Grackle Party
Full of guts!!
Kind of funny but also kind of sad.... Since the Sens scratched Stone/Dzingel/Duchene they have now went 5.5 periods without scoring a goal.
It really does look like that team flat out has nobody left to score any goals since they removed 50% of the teams production with those 3 guys.
It really does look like that team flat out has nobody left to score any goals since they removed 50% of the teams production with those 3 guys.
Crazy. Of course, they also lost hope, that's a big thing.
jvcjdudu jcycyxjene
Registered User
Mighty Makar
I hate this fu*ken team
- May 24, 2016
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TruePowerSlave
Registered User
- Jun 27, 2015
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Worst team in the league, guaranteed to finish 31st or 30th
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