Speculation: Sens home vs away record

[Sensung]

7-21-6 road record. 48 point pace.

18-13-6 @ home for an 82 point pace.

What factors do you feel made for such a stark contrast?

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[Crosside]

7-21-6 road record. 48 point pace.

18-13-6 @ home for an 82 point pace.

What factors do you feel made for such a stark contrast?

The last change

 

[Sensung]

The last change

Opponents more willing to play their back up goalies on the road (Sens home games)?

Anyone have a sight that tracks how often teams face starters vs back ups?

 

[Ouroboros]

The raucous atmosphere at CTC propelled the Sens to victory.

 

[Sensung]

The raucous atmosphere at CTC propelled the Sens to victory.

Some posters claimed the poor crowds would hurt the team's performance and scolded people for boycotting. Sure doesn't seem to have hurt the results.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Some posters claimed the poor crowds would hurt the team's performance and scolded people for boycotting. Sure doesn't seem to have hurt the results.

Really. I don't remember that. You got any links?

 

[Crosside]

Me I remember you said , we gonna have 48 pts or less

 

[2CHAINZ]

Its easier to focus when there are no fans in the arena.

 

[Samsquanch]

Some posters claimed the poor crowds would hurt the team's performance and scolded people for boycotting. Sure doesn't seem to have hurt the results.

That's hilarious, and clearly not a well thought out idea...

Dont get me wrong, an insanely loud building filled with the energy of passionate fans is absolutely able to help a team with carrying good momentum. The opposing team can gain just as much momentum from silencing that same crowd though, so theres that.

But the lack of crazy home crowd is certainly not "hurting" a team in any possible way that could ever be measured...

 

[danielpalfredsson]

The last change

Pretty much this.

We don't have a deep roster, so it would be easy for coaches to exploit matchups with us on the road. There would be lots more mismatches than with an average team.

 

[Larionov]

The last change

Yep. Sens have a strong coaching staff, and at home they were able to get the matchups they needed. On the road, without last change, they got badly exposed. This is pretty normal as well for weaker teams - without checking, I think in the first year back in 92-93 they only won one game on the road all season...

 

[Stylizer1]

Teams partied hard the night before.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Pretty much this.

We don't have a deep roster, so it would be easy for coaches to exploit matchups with us on the road. There would be lots more mismatches than with an average team.

The most interesting stat for how the team performed was days in between games.

Home + Road, collectively
4 days: 5 GP, 0-3-2 record
2 days: 16 GP, 2-10-4 record
1 day: 37 GP, 19-15-3 record
0 days: 13GP, 4-6-3 record

Now, let's look at those splits and isolate Home and Road.

Road
4 days: 2 GP, 0-2-0 record (PP% 0, PK% 66.7)
2 days: 10 GP, 1-7-2 record (PP% 3.2, PK% 75.9)
1 day: 11 GP, 3-6-2 record (PP% 19.2, PK% 72.5)
0 days: 11GP, 3-6-2 record (PP% 16.7, PK% 71)

Home
4 days: 3 GP, 0-1-2 record (PP% 20, PK% 69.2)
2 days: 6 GP, 1-3-2 record (PP% 19.1, PK% 73.7)
1 day: 26 GP, 16-9-1 record (PP% 15.5, PK% 82.3)
0 days: 2GP, 1-0-1 record (PP% 16.7, PK% 75)

Tied for the league lead in most games played back-to-back on the road. (Historically, teams post their worst split records on b2b and long off stretches)
Last in the NHL in games played on 1 day rest on the road. (Historically, teams post their best split records on 1 day rest in between games)

This is bizarre schedule-making, to say the least. We would expect them to perform worse on the road but with the way that they lined up their road schedule, it seemed unlikely they would have anything but a putrid win-loss record.

 

[Sensung]

The most interesting stat for how the team performed was days in between games.
Road
4 days: 2 GP, 0-2-0 record (PP% 0, PK% 66.7)
2 days: 10 GP, 1-7-2 record (PP% 3.2, PK% 75.9)
1 day: 11 GP, 3-6-2 record (PP% 19.2, PK% 72.5)
0 days: 11GP, 3-6-2 record (PP% 16.7, PK% 71)

Tied for the league lead in most games played back-to-back on the road.

This is bizarre schedule-making, to say the least. We would expect them to perform worse on the road but with the way that they lined up their road schedule, it seemed unlikely they would have anything but a putrid win-loss record.

The Sens road record was the same if they had 0 days rest or 1 days rest. Both situations were better than more than one day rest.

The stats you presented directly contradict your point. The scheduling of road games had little to no impact on the record.

 

[DrEasy]

The most interesting stat for how the team performed was days in between games.

Home + Road, collectively
4 days: 5 GP, 0-3-2 record
2 days: 16 GP, 2-10-4 record
1 day: 37 GP, 19-15-3 record
0 days: 13GP, 4-6-3 record

Now, let's look at those splits and isolate Home and Road.

Road
4 days: 2 GP, 0-2-0 record (PP% 0, PK% 66.7)
2 days: 10 GP, 1-7-2 record (PP% 3.2, PK% 75.9)
1 day: 11 GP, 3-6-2 record (PP% 19.2, PK% 72.5)
0 days: 11GP, 3-6-2 record (PP% 16.7, PK% 71)

Home
4 days: 3 GP, 0-1-2 record (PP% 20, PK% 69.2)
2 days: 6 GP, 1-3-2 record (PP% 19.1, PK% 73.7)
1 day: 26 GP, 16-9-1 record (PP% 15.5, PK% 82.3)
0 days: 2GP, 1-0-1 record (PP% 16.7, PK% 75)

Tied for the league lead in most games played back-to-back on the road. (Historically, teams post their worst split records on b2b and long off stretches)
Last in the NHL in games played on 1 day rest on the road. (Historically, teams post their best split records on 1 day rest in between games)

This is bizarre schedule-making, to say the least. We would expect them to perform worse on the road but with the way that they lined up their road schedule, it seemed unlikely they would have anything but a putrid win-loss record.

Well, we're cheap in payroll, we're cheap in scouting, we're cheap in analytics, makes sense that we would also be cheap in bribing the schedule makers.

 

[Sensung]

Me I remember you said , we gonna have 48 pts or less

Guess I was only looking at road record.

 

[JD1]

The Sens road record was the same if they had 0 days rest or 1 days rest. Both situations were better than more than one day rest.

The stats you presented directly contradict your point. The scheduling of road games had little to no impact on the record.

I think what he was referring to was the 1-0-1 home record on b2b games versus the 3-6-2 record in b2b on the road. Idk what the league average is for b2b games but i do remember an early analysis of it showing we had the most in the league

Who knows the team may be requesting the b2b road games to cut back on travel cost.

They may also be asking for a larger spread at home because of the low sth base and the need to draw walkup crowds on game days so spacing probably helps that.

It sucks if that's the case because it impacts the record.

 

[Sensung]

I think what he was referring to was the 1-0-1 home record on b2b games versus the 3-6-2 record in b2b on the road. Idk what the league average is for b2b games but i do remember an early analysis of it showing we had the most in the league

Who knows the team may be requesting the b2b road games to cut back on travel cost.

They may also be asking for a larger spread at home because of the low sth base and the need to draw walkup crowds on game days so spacing probably helps that.

It sucks if that's the case because it impacts the record.

Tied for the league lead in most games played back-to-back on the road. (Historically, teams post their worst split records on b2b and long off stretches)
Last in the NHL in games played on 1 day rest on the road. (Historically, teams post their best split records on 1 day rest in between games)

This is bizarre schedule-making, to say the least. We would expect them to perform worse on the road but with the way that they lined up their road schedule, it seemed unlikely they would have anything but a putrid win-loss record.

This what he stated.

He was clearly implying the Sens got screwed on the road schedule and that it hurt their record because of the large # of b2b.

The facts he posted pointed to the exact opposite, as the Sens road record in b2b (and one day off) games was the best of any rest situation.

 

[BankStreetParade]

The Sens road record was the same if they had 0 days rest or 1 days rest. Both situations were better than more than one day rest.

The stats you presented directly contradict your point. The scheduling of road games had little to no impact on the record.

26 of 37 home games were played on 1 day's rest.
11 of 34 road games were played on 1 day's rest.

Home record = good
Road record = bad

I know you like taking information and "interpreting" it in your own special way, but if you don't see the point that's being made it's because you don't want to see it.

 

[Sensung]

26 of 37 home games were played on 1 day's rest.
11 of 34 road games were played on 1 day's rest.

Home record = good
Road record = bad

I know you like taking information and "interpreting" it in your own special way, but if you don't see the point that's being made it's because you don't want to see it.

Sure thing.

Road
4 days: 2 GP, 0-2-0 record (PP% 0, PK% 66.7)
2 days: 10 GP, 1-7-2 record (PP% 3.2, PK% 75.9)
1 day: 11 GP, 3-6-2 record (PP% 19.2, PK% 72.5)
0 days: 11GP, 3-6-2 record (PP% 16.7, PK% 71

Tied for the league lead in most games played back-to-back on the road. (Historically, teams post their worst split records on b2b and long off stretches)
Last in the NHL in games played on 1 day rest on the road. (Historically, teams post their best split records on 1 day rest in between games)

 

[Micklebot]

The Sens road record was the same if they had 0 days rest or 1 days rest. Both situations were better than more than one day rest.

The stats you presented directly contradict your point. The scheduling of road games had little to no impact on the record.

While it may be true we did better this year on no days rest than multiple days rest, the impact of playing with less rest is well established.

There are a number of variables at play here, what team were we playing, were we facing a backup, did we use our backup, was the team and/or opponent missing any key players. I think it's important to remember that if you aren't controlling for any other variables, it's unwise to argue that a well established trend wasn't a factor. Odds are very good that our 11 road games with zero days rest had a negative impact on our overall record and our home/road split. It may just be that that impact was somewhat offset by other variables.

 

[Sensung]

While it may be true we did better this year on no days rest than multiple days rest, the impact of playing with less rest is well established.

There are a number of variables at play here, what team were we playing, were we facing a backup, did we use our backup, was the team and/or opponent missing any key players. I think it's important to remember that if you aren't controlling for any other variables, it's unwise to argue that a well established trend wasn't a factor. Odds are very good that our 11 road games with zero days rest had a negative impact on our overall record and our home/road split. It may just be that that impact was somewhat offset by other variables.

It has been a historical trend, but doesn't seem to have had an impact this year.

My guess is that the Sens faced far more starting goaltenders on the road than at home and the last change tended to expose our weaknesses.

Did some digging. Sens faced the back up 46% of the time at home and 38% on road. Overall they faced back up goaltending a whopping 42% of the time.

 

[Micklebot]

It has been a historical trend, but doesn't seem to have had an impact this year.

My guess is that the Sens faced far more starting goaltenders on the road than at home and the last change tended to expose our weaknesses.

Did some digging. Sens faced the back up 46% of the time at home and 38% on road. Overall they faced back up goaltending a whopping 42% of the time.

Wrt zero days rest impacting performance, I think if the argument is "maybe we are an exception" the onus is on you to offer a compelling case as to why. So far you haven't really done so.

I agree that facing backups matters too, but it is the interactions between variables that I was getting at. Looking at each variable individually offers a skewed perception if you don't control for all the other variables. Even then, the impact of many variable typically only become clear when the sample is large. Bucketing a partial season for one team may not show the trend, but the disadvantage still exists and contributes to overall results.

I think the most likely answer is all of last change, proportion of backup goalies faced, proportion of games with zero days rest ECT, ECT all had an impact. Heck, 66% of our games after the deadline were on the road, so that's another disadvantage to be examined.

 

[Sensung]

Wrt zero days rest impacting performance, I think if the argument is "maybe we are an exception" the onus is on you to offer a compelling case as to why. So far you haven't really done so.

I agree that facing backups matters too, but it is the interactions between variables that I was getting at. Looking at each variable individually offers a skewed perception if you don't control for all the other variables. Even then, the impact of many variable typically only become clear when the sample is large. Bucketing a partial season for one team may not show the trend, but the disadvantage still exists and contributes to overall results.

I think the most likely answer is all of last change, proportion of backup goalies faced, proportion of games with zero days rest ECT, ECT all had an impact. Heck, 66% of our games after the deadline were on the road, so that's another disadvantage to be examined.

The sample size is really too limited to draw big conclusions.

The inflationary effect to our overall record in facing the back up goalie in nearly half our games is real though.

 

[Micklebot]

The sample size is really too limited to draw big conclusions.

The inflationary effect to our overall record in facing the back up goalie in nearly half our games is real though.

Just wrt facing backups, I took a look and omitted teams that ran a 1a 1b system like Nashville from the count of backups, that resulted in a pretty close split of 32% on the road and 38% at home.

But, even using a more strict starter is the goalie that started more games this season rule, there was an interesting anomaly; on the road, we won at the same rate against starters as we did against backups, about 20% of the time, we got a W regardless of whether or not we faced the starter (20 road games by my count) or the backup (14 games). Home ice saw 50% wins against starters, and 47% against backups (not the type of inflation you would expect, but there are other variables that lead teams to choose their backup against us which may be impacting this)

	Backup GP	1b goalie	clear Starter	Win vs Starter	win vs Backup	win vs 1b	win vs Backup or 1b
H - 37 games	14	3	20	10	6	2	8
R - 34 games	11	3	20	4	1	2	3
% wins at Home vs backup or 1b	47.06%		% Home wins vs starter	50.00%
% wins on road vs backup or 1b	21.43%		% road wins vs starter	20.00%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]