Seitsonen/Tukonen/Nokelainen/Korpiskari

[db23]

Just looked back at their stats as juniors in Finland. Seitsonen outscored all of the others (point per game and overall) in Junior C as a 15 year old. The next year he outscored Nokelainen and Korpiskari overall and on a PPG basis. He had 3 times as many points as K. in just a few more games. Tukonen had moved up to Junior A at that point. But when you consider that Seitsonen is a lot bigger than Nokelainen and Korpiskari AND outscored them at the same age in the same league it really makes you wonder about the Finns who stayed at home. Seitsonen came to the WHL and had 40 points in 71 games as a 17 year old. If you extrapollated the numbers from the previous year in Finland, Nokelainen would have had about 35 points and Korpiskari about 15 in a full WHL season.

I think there is cause for concern with the teams that drafted those two, especially Korpiskari who is supposed to be an offensive threat. Was their offense at the U18 purely the result of playing on the line with Tukonen?

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[Captain Conservative]

Just looked back at their stats as juniors in Finland. Seitsonen outscored all of the others (point per game and overall) in Junior C as a 15 year old. The next year he outscored Nokelainen and Korpiskari overall and on a PPG basis. He had 3 times as many points as K. in just a few more games. Tukonen had moved up to Junior A at that point. But when you consider that Seitsonen is a lot bigger than Nokelainen and Korpiskari AND outscored them at the same age in the same league it really makes you wonder about the Finns who stayed at home. Seitsonen came to the WHL and had 40 points in 71 games as a 17 year old. If you extrapollated the numbers from the previous year in Finland, Nokelainen would have had about 35 points and Korpiskari about 15 in a full WHL season.

I think there is cause for concern with the teams that drafted those two, especially Korpiskari who is supposed to be an offensive threat. Was their offense at the U18 purely the result of playing on the line with Tukonen?

db23 strikes again! *laughs* Did you ever consider that Seitsonens size is the reason he scored more in Junior?

 

[BrooklynCanuck]

It's Korpikoski.

As for the rest of your post. A few seasons is a long time to mature for kids that age. Heck, I was a totally different person at 15 than I was at 17/18. Kids can develop their talents.

I agree that the stacked line at WU18 probably padded all of their stats. I'd worry a bit about Korpikoski being a one season wonder and Nokelainen being a defensive specialist without a huge upside, but teams (and any well informed fan) knew both of those risks going into the drafts. Both picks were calculated risks. Seitsonen didn't get drafted as high because he didn't have the upside.

Also, comparing numbers from different leagues (especially abroad) is pretty inaccurate.

 

[Moskau]

How dare Washington draft Ovechkin first, I can think of 80 junior players who outscored him.

 

[db23]

It's Korpikoski.

As for the rest of your post. A few seasons is a long time to mature for kids that age. Heck, I was a totally different person at 15 than I was at 17/18. Kids can develop their talents.

I agree that the stacked line at WU18 probably padded all of their stats. I'd worry a bit about Korpikoski being a one season wonder and Nokelainen being a defensive specialist without a huge upside, but teams (and any well informed fan) knew both of those risks going into the drafts. Both picks were calculated risks. Seitsonen didn't get drafted as high because he didn't have the upside.

Also, comparing numbers from different leagues (especially abroad) is pretty inaccurate.

The difference between Korpikoski and the others on the way up is huge. The other guys outscored him by a factor of 2 or 3 at every level. He is the guy who is being drafted purely for his offensive upside as well. . So far he has shown the least offense of the four by a large margin. Also he is the smallest of the group.

 

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Or you could look at it another way. Korpikoski is the most improved one of the bunch during last season. That is often very appealing to scouts because it tends to suggest improvement in the future as well.

Using stats from their 15 year old seasons to try and gauge much of anything seems highly suspect.

Teams watch these players and try and predict how good they'll be in 5 years. Your attempt at judging them by stats is futile at best. Try watching prospects, that's what it's all about.

 

[db23]

Or you could look at it another way. Korpikoski is the most improved one of the bunch during last season. That is often very appealing to scouts because it tends to suggest improvement in the future as well.

Using stats from their 15 year old seasons to try and gauge much of anything seems highly suspect.

Teams watch these players and try and predict how good they'll be in 5 years. Your attempt at judging them by stats is futile at best. Try watching prospects, that's what it's all about.

But his numbers in Junior A last season were really mediocre. I think he had 20 points in 36 games. THE YEAR BEFORE, as a 16 year old, Tukonen scored almost 2 points per game in Junior A. Nokelainen played in the SM Liiga for a few games last season and all of this season. Tukonen was in the SM Liiga full time this year. Korpikoski has yet to have a sniff at the senior league.

There is no way in hell that the Finnish Junior league is on par with the CHL. Would you consider a smallish forward with defensive issues who averaged a point every two games in the CHL a first round prospect? Even if you consider the Finnish junior league on par with the CHL, that means that in 72 games Korpiskari would have had 40 points.

If Korpiskari or Nokelainen (less so) had come to play in the WHL and Seitsonen had stayed in Finland, I bet their draft positions would be reversed. Seitsonen would be a first round pick and the other two would be fourth round or later.

 

[Flames Draft Watcher]

If Korpiskari or Nokelainen (less so) had come to play in the WHL and Seitsonen had stayed in Finland, I bet their draft positions would be reversed. Seitsonen would be a first round pick and the other two would be fourth round or later.

I find that to be a pretty suspect theory.

Why are you so hung up on 16 or 15 year old stats? Do you realize that there are late bloomers, guys who have growth spurts, guys who improve drastically and turn themselves into a prospect in one season?

There's no replacement for watching these kids play and projecting what role they might have in the NHL in 5 years. That's what scouts do. That's why Korpikoski, Tukonen and Nokelainen went in the first and were ranked in the first by most scouting organizations.

Your attempt to analyze them strictly through stats is competely and utterly meaningless. You have to watch the kids play to have any idea about them.

 

[Bure9*]

From what I've read, Korpikoski was the driving force on the Tukonen line. The Rangers had to trade up so Dallas wouldn't pick him. In Rockstrom we trust.

 

[db23]

Korpikoski was Kyle Woodleif's annual "sleeper" pick. That is the kiss of death in itself. Woodleif is so desperate to seem original he jumps on these one hit wonders in the faint hope that they actually do beat the odds. The Woodleif "We love this guy!" curse. On the heels of Anrei Kostitsyn, Lars Jonsson, Michel Reisen and others too numerous to mention.

 

[Missionhockey]

From what I've read, Korpikoski was the driving force on the Tukonen line. The Rangers had to trade up so Dallas wouldn't pick him. In Rockstrom we trust.

The Devils were also interested in Korpikoski, so when they saw him off the board, they made a move for their number 2 guy.

 

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Korpikoski was Kyle Woodleif's annual "sleeper" pick. That is the kiss of death in itself. Woodleif is so desperate to seem original he jumps on these one hit wonders in the faint hope that they actually do beat the odds. The Woodleif "We love this guy!" curse. On the heels of Anrei Kostitsyn, Lars Jonsson, Michel Reisen and others too numerous to mention.

So you're saying Korpikoski, Jonsson and Kastsitsyn are busts? What the heck are you saying?

 

[BrettNYR]

So you're saying Korpikoski, Jonsson and Kastsitsyn are busts? What the heck are you saying?

Wasn't Hugh Jessiman also a Woodlief favorite?

 

[db23]

Wasn't Hugh Jessiman also a Woodlief favorite?

"Huge" went from 47 points in 34 games as a frosh at Dartmouth to 33 points in 34 games as a sophomore. What does that tell you about the "Woodlief curse?"

 

[markov`]

db23, is this the first time you talk about stats?

 

[BrettNYR]

"Huge" went from 47 points in 34 games as a frosh at Dartmouth to 33 points in 34 games as a sophomore. What does that tell you about the "Woodlief curse?"

Not to sound like a homer, but Jessiman was double-and-triple teamed all year, which led to the drop of his production. Just ask 'Oiler Chick'.

 

[db23]

Not to sound like a homer, but Jessiman was double-and-triple teamed all year, which led to the drop of his production. Just ask 'Oiler Chick'.

Dropping 30% production from one year to the next is a bit worrisome, no matter how you expain it.

 

[CH Wizard]

How dare Washington draft Ovechkin first, I can think of 80 junior players who outscored him.

Yeah you're right sometimes stats means nothing ,Ovechkin was picked first overall because he's the complete package.

 

[db23]

Except that Ovechkin never played against juniors the past two years. Except in international tournaments. Like the U18 tournament where he scored 14 goals in 6 games against the best juniors of his age group in the world. Or the WJC last winter where he wasn't too shabby statistically either. Other than that he has been playing against men in one of the tightest checking leagues in the world.

 

[Bure9*]

Dropping 30% production from one year to the next is a bit worrisome, no matter how you expain it.

Here's another stats freak. Doesn't watch the games but goes by the stats. If I did that I would have been right about Pavel Brendl being the next superstar in the league.

 

[rikker]

There are many qualities that a prospect will be rated on. Skill, speed, size, toughness, defensive abilities, leadership, heart, on ice awareness...

I'm sure that the teams look at all aspects of a prospect and decide whether he fulfills a future need. I'm happy with Nokey, yet still consider the other 3 as good prospects.

 

[db23]

I don't see any reason that Nokelainen can't turn out to be a decent two way guy as projected, since he has proven himself to a degree against professionals. But I really wonder about Korpikoski. It seems like they are projecting him as an offensive player when he has shown no history of being one. Except for a 6 game stretch playing against very uneven competiton with two very good linemates.