Season Outlook: Columbus Blue Jackets

[WTFMAN99]

HockeyIntangibles: Season Outlook: Columbus Blue Jackets

Team Status: Columbus is a team that is competing. The team has had a few playoff appearances now but has not been able to advance past the 1st round. The team made a few changes this off season but largely stayed the same...

Next up on mission impossible for me, the Columbus Blue Jackets!

I hope I did right by you guys with this piece! Columbus is an interesting team and I like a lot of the pieces the Jackets have but they're just a piece of two away.

Give it a read and let me know what you think, any shares or feedback is of course welcomed. I would also love to get a more steady stream of CBJ news on the blog, so if anyone is interested in taking up the mantle feel free to private message me on here. You can also find me on Twitter @WTFMAN999 if for some reason that is easier for you then on here.

Cheers and good luck this season.

Click to read more...

 

[EspenK]

Not much new here but I agree with his overall conclusion that the Jackets are a bubble playoff team, chances of which go way down if Bread or Bob are traded. Also agree that Jackets need another LW to complete the top 6 F's (hopefully Milano or Duclair have a breakout season and fill the role).

 

[CBJFan827]

Mostly solid, there are a few things about your lines/roster that I think will be different (namely Duclair in the lineup, Murray-Savard not playing together, Carlsson not making the team and Kukan finally sticking, etc).

 

[WTFMAN99]

Mostly solid, there are a few things about your lines/roster that I think will be different (namely Duclair in the lineup, Murray-Savard not playing together, Carlsson not making the team and Kukan finally sticking, etc).

I figured with Murray and Savard being the next best defenseman, they made sense to pair together. I also figured Carlsson would be ready to play some 3rd pairing minutes. Easily wrong on this though, just tried my best

 

[CBJFan827]

I figured with Murray and Savard being the next best defenseman, they made sense to pair together. I also figured Carlsson would be ready to play some 3rd pairing minutes. Easily wrong on this though, just tried my best

Sure! Murray and Savard really do not complement each other, and when they've played together it was really bad. Murray-Nutivaara and Kukan/Carlsson-Savard or Nuti-Savard and Murray-Kukan are probably more likely

 

[mikeyp24]

Not bad considering you are doing every team so you obviously cant have as in depth knowledge of every situation so credot where its due buddy. Few issues I have with it just as more of a common outsider feelings vs common cbj feelings.

#1 I would disagree with what you said (again kinda minor point but still) about not upgrading C. PLD gaining a year is auto a plus and then we sogned Nash for a steal in UFA. Last year you are 100% right Wennberg wasnt great but he battled the 1st half with coming into camp late due to contract talls and having a back injury most of the year. When he finally got healthy he was one of our best players actually Id say using the TDL as a starting point. Dubi also had some issues personally last year but Torts saod he looked great this year but as a 4C he might not put up 50pts but is there many better Fo/defensive/pests in the league that can play that low. Add in the prospects
And we are probably top 15 C depth now. So just a minor argument there.

#2 The biggest thing outside fans and this article has wrong about our team is the Panarin situation. If he scores 90 goals and leaves its still not a huge blow to us to get nothing for him if he leaves. Why would I say that when the best overall complete LW in the league? Because he is more valuable to is this year in the playoffs then whatever the return would likely be because any trade would conceivably HAVE to be sign and trade with big pieces coming here and that juat seems unlikely. We have had the 2nd youngest team in the league 2 years running and prospects and picks dont help us continue growing our current group.


#3 Another mininal issue In the lineup is D pairings. Nutivaara's rookie they put him on the left and Murray on Right and Murray had a hard time on his offside and Nuti was clearly a rookie. Last year though to start the year they were playing as arguably the best pair on the team then both had injury issues. IMO savard is currently the 5th (at best) D on the team and will hopefully pair with Kukan down there. Honestly IIIIIIIIFFFFFF and I say this only with the clarifier there because its a major one but iiiiiif they stay healthy IMO they are easily and clearly top 5 D teams in the league and can argue best... argue. If we only we allowed to sign Gavrikov this year =(

Basically the only gripe is just another person making the Panarin situation into the Tavares one when its not and I am a little hyperbolic about our D because unlike some here I know how good Murray is when healthy and our record overwhelmingly shows that.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Not bad considering you are doing every team so you obviously cant have as in depth knowledge of every situation so credot where its due buddy. Few issues I have with it just as more of a common outsider feelings vs common cbj feelings.

#1 I would disagree with what you said (again kinda minor point but still) about not upgrading C. PLD gaining a year is auto a plus and then we sogned Nash for a steal in UFA. Last year you are 100% right Wennberg wasnt great but he battled the 1st half with coming into camp late due to contract talls and having a back injury most of the year. When he finally got healthy he was one of our best players actually Id say using the TDL as a starting point. Dubi also had some issues personally last year but Torts saod he looked great this year but as a 4C he might not put up 50pts but is there many better Fo/defensive/pests in the league that can play that low. Add in the prospects
And we are probably top 15 C depth now. So just a minor argument there.

#2 The biggest thing outside fans and this article has wrong about our team is the Panarin situation. If he scores 90 goals and leaves its still not a huge blow to us to get nothing for him if he leaves. Why would I say that when the best overall complete LW in the league? Because he is more valuable to is this year in the playoffs then whatever the return would likely be because any trade would conceivably HAVE to be sign and trade with big pieces coming here and that juat seems unlikely. We have had the 2nd youngest team in the league 2 years running and prospects and picks dont help us continue growing our current group.


#3 Another mininal issue In the lineup is D pairings. Nutivaara's rookie they put him on the left and Murray on Right and Murray had a hard time on his offside and Nuti was clearly a rookie. Last year though to start the year they were playing as arguably the best pair on the team then both had injury issues. IMO savard is currently the 5th (at best) D on the team and will hopefully pair with Kukan down there. Honestly IIIIIIIIFFFFFF and I say this only with the clarifier there because its a major one but iiiiiif they stay healthy IMO they are easily and clearly top 5 D teams in the league and can argue best... argue. If we only we allowed to sign Gavrikov this year =(

Basically the only gripe is just another person making the Panarin situation into the Tavares one when its not and I am a little hyperbolic about our D because unlike some here I know how good Murray is when healthy and our record overwhelmingly shows that.

Lots of points here but I want to point to the last one, I really like Murray but the health is always a concern for him. He's starting to feel like a Chris Tanev type.

 

[Jive Pawnbroker]

Personally I'm not very optimistic about this upcoming season as I think the Panarin and Bob situations will have a negative effect. I hope I'm wrong but I'm getting a bad vibe from the off ice situations. I'm sensing they'll miss the playoffs this year with Bread and possibly Bob being moved at the TDL.

 

[mikeyp24]

Personally I'm not very optimistic about this upcoming season as I think the Panarin and Bob situations will have a negative effect. I hope I'm wrong but I'm getting a bad vibe from the off ice situations. I'm sensing they'll miss the playoffs this year with Bread and possibly Bob being moved at the TDL.

Its funny reading this not because your opinion but before I read a post about will we bengood or bad this year If you look at who liked the post and you see either of the 2 people who did you onow its negative.

Honestly I think the opposite because both guys are likely to wait it out and see who offers so no teammate will worry because they no nothing in the season will effect it. We will be contending all year so unless an amazing offer no one could turn down is offered the stay. Amd everyone know contract years tend to be amazing because it matters in negotiations. So we could get god bob and a 100 panarin.

End of the day we make the playoffs just a matter of a high seed good matchup.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Talent wise, this team is only lacking behind Pittsburgh in the division. I think we are deeper than Washington, and I don't think their roster even last year was better than ours. They got hot at the right time, and Holtby stood on his head at times. Anyway, I think this team is talented. However, the same issues from last year remains with new ones. The special teams will likely be awful again (most notably the PK, who lost it's best player but gained Nash.) I think Atkinson will have a better season (he was awful until he returned from his broken foot if you remember), and I think Wennberg could bounce back into the offensive player they want him to be. The defense isn't as deep or as good as last year, outside of the first pair there is a lot of questions. PLD repeating his success is a question, as sophomore seasons people tend to struggle. The goaltending will be the same. I don't think the team is as deep as it was across the board.

The drama surrounding Panarin and Bob will bring this team down I think. I have the CBJ on the outside of the playoff bubble as of today.

 

[EspenK]

Talent wise, this team is only lacking behind Pittsburgh in the division. I think we are deeper than Washington, and I don't think their roster even last year was better than ours. They got hot at the right time, and Holtby stood on his head at times. Anyway, I think this team is talented...
...The drama surrounding Panarin and Bob will bring this team down I think. I have the CBJ on the outside of the playoff bubble as of today.

More talented than Washington. . Ovie, Kuznetsov, Backstrom, Carlsson,Oshie, Holtby. I think they still hold the edge.

Agree on the drama thing although I think its a battle with the Devils for last playoff spot. And Buffalo might surprise a few folks.

 

[major major]

So THN has Jones as it's Norris favorite, but it's the write-up that'll get you:


"Jones was considered almost interchangeable with Nathan MacKinnon in the race for 2013’s No. 1 overall pick before Jones shockingly slipped to fourth on draft day. That provides perspective of just how highly regarded he was. Long, rangy and a great skater, Jones always projected to be a phenom, and he truly busted out in the second half last year, when he was arguably the NHL’s best defenseman for a two-month stretch. In one 16-game chunk from mid-February to early April, he went nuclear for eight goals and 21 points in 16 games. The late surge gave him season-ending totals of 16 goals and 57 points. Jones also ranked 12th in the NHL in 5-on-5 Relative Corsi. He was a dominant force all over the ice, and he finished fourth in Norris Trophy voting.

This year, we think Jones maintains that elite production all season long, especially with another stud defenseman on his left side in Zach Werenski.

“Since I’ve been on the team in my rookie season, you can see he plays with this confidence that he knows he’s going to go out there and make the right play and help this team win, but last year, he took that to a new level,” Werenski said. “He would get the puck in our D-zone, and I knew he was going end to end and no one was stopping him. Or someone was coming wide on him, and I knew they weren’t getting the shot off. He just had this confidence to him last year, and he played with that every game. It was pretty awesome to see.”

Jones turns 24 on Oct. 3 and enters his true prime years. It appears to be his time. Franchise defensemen do seem to spend a few years in Norris runner-up purgatory before getting their “turns,” but Jones enters his sixth season. Chris Pronger got his Norris in his seventh season, Drew Doughty in his eighth, Hedman in his ninth. Maybe it’s a little “early” for Jones, but so many of the other contenders have won recently that politics may not get in his way."


I don't think they could have meant that he'd actually score 108 points. But either way that's a bit too hopeful for me. I'm wary of things that make me feel that good.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

More talented than Washington. . Ovie, Kuznetsov, Backstrom, Carlsson,Oshie, Holtby. I think they still hold the edge.

Agree on the drama thing although I think its a battle with the Devils for last playoff spot. And Buffalo might surprise a few folks.

Washington is far and away more rich with top end talent. But I like our talent more up and down the roster.

 

[thebus88]

So THN has Jones as it's Norris favorite,

And people REALLY thought it should have been Jones+

"3rd pairing d man"

"only 1c in franchise history"

HF hockey fans and their "facts"

HA

 

[CBJWerenski8]

And people REALLY thought it should have been Jones+

"3rd pairing d man"

"only 1c in franchise history"

HF hockey fans and their "facts"

HA

Not sure what you're getting at here (other than to stir the pot, as per usual) because both statements were accurate at the time. Nobody said Jones was going to stay as a 3rd pairing defenseman or we would never have another #1 in franchise history.

 

[CBJFan827]

And people REALLY thought it should have been Jones+

"3rd pairing d man"

"only 1c in franchise history"

HF hockey fans and their "facts"

HA

You are the most "HF hockey fan" around here, so I don't know what to tell ya

 

[major major]

I always enjoy Porty and AlisonL on the front & nationwide podcast.

Porty joins in the skepticism about Panarin's neck injury, says he doesn't think the neck would get hurt doing pullups. I have to correct this - for me it's the main reason to be wary about pullups. It's very easy to pull a neck muscle doing them. Your trap muscles are the main muscles that do pullups.

Most of the episode is about the PP, and problems finding a fit at each position. Larsen mentions our lack of a dominant center, mentioning Scheifele and Oshie. To me this is very obviously about the central powerplay position ("the Gagner spot"), but Porty gets confused and thinks it's about the faceoff men. Oshie and Scheifele are great in the central position because they can get a shot off instantly with zero extra space, and can win battles for loose pucks. We need a guy who can do both of those things.

I think Dubois should be tried there. He's got the strength at least, a great shot, I'm not sure if he can do it with so little space though. The Washington/Winnipeg model is to have two same-handed snipers, one in the middle and one on the left half-wall (Oshie + Ovechkin, Scheifele + Laine), across from a great distributor on the right half-wall (Backstrom, Wheeler). Panarin can be the great far guy, Dubois maybe in the middle. But he's a left-shot, so that spoils that plan. And do we want to put Wennberg back in his old spot, where he struggled last year?

This is what I'd like to see tried:

----------Wennberg
Panarin - Dubois - Werenski
------------Jones

It gives Panarin multiple left-shot options across from him, and of course he can shoot. Apologies to Cam Atkinson, but having a right-shot guy on the right half-wall is not ideal, it's not a great shooting position and it makes it harder to set guys up for one-timers. Werenski can shoot better from that side, and he's a better passer in any position. That gives Nutivaara full command of the second unit, which he's overdue for.

---------------Foligno
Atkinson - Bjorkstrand - Milano
--------------Nutivaara

 

[MoeBartoli]

I always enjoy Porty and AlisonL on the front & nationwide podcast.

Porty joins in the skepticism about Panarin's neck injury, says he doesn't think the neck would get hurt doing pullups. I have to correct this - for me it's the main reason to be wary about pullups. It's very easy to pull a neck muscle doing them. Your trap muscles are the main muscles that do pullups.

Most of the episode is about the PP, and problems finding a fit at each position. Larsen mentions our lack of a dominant center, mentioning Scheifele and Oshie. To me this is very obviously about the central powerplay position ("the Gagner spot"), but Porty gets confused and thinks it's about the faceoff men. Oshie and Scheifele are great in the central position because they can get a shot off instantly with zero extra space, and can win battles for loose pucks. We need a guy who can do both of those things.

I think Dubois should be tried there. He's got the strength at least, a great shot, I'm not sure if he can do it with so little space though. The Washington/Winnipeg model is to have two same-handed snipers, one in the middle and one on the left half-wall (Oshie + Ovechkin, Scheifele + Laine), across from a great distributor on the right half-wall (Backstrom, Wheeler). Panarin can be the great far guy, Dubois maybe in the middle. But he's a left-shot, so that spoils that plan. And do we want to put Wennberg back in his old spot, where he struggled last year?

This is what I'd like to see tried:

----------Wennberg
Panarin - Dubois - Werenski
------------Jones

It gives Panarin multiple left-shot options across from him, and of course he can shoot. Apologies to Cam Atkinson, but having a right-shot guy on the right half-wall is not ideal, it's not a great shooting position and it makes it harder to set guys up for one-timers. Werenski can shoot better from that side, and he's a better passer in any position. That gives Nutivaara full command of the second unit, which he's overdue for.

---------------Foligno
Atkinson - Bjorkstrand - Milano
--------------Nutivaara

I have to admit I’m not a fan of Wennberg down low on the PP. And before anyone accuses me of a “piling on Wennberg” post, show me a trail of any references to trading, benching or dumping him. This is strictly about him down low. In addition to screening the goalie, ideally this player is strong at tips/redirects and jamming in loose pucks. I don’t find him particular outstanding at either (if you ask me the Jacket who is...well, you got me, though Vanek did have those skills).

 

[major major]

I have to admit I’m not a fan of Wennberg down low on the PP. And before anyone accuses me of a “piling on Wennberg” post, show me a trail of any references to trading, benching or dumping him. This is strictly about him down low. In addition to screening the goalie, ideally this player is strong at tips/redirects and jamming in loose pucks. I don’t find him particular outstanding at either (if you ask me the Jacket who is...well, you got me, though Vanek did have those skills).

Yeah I'm not sure about him there. I do think he's great at screens and tips though, and good at passing from the goal line. Jenner would be better at jamming the puck in but that seems to be a low percentage play.

 

[Yerfdaugy]

Leaf fan here coming in peace.
Interested in the outlook of y'all here because I think you guys have a good team. What's the informed opinion around here on wennburg having a bigger year, Jenner scoring 25-30, etc?

Also don't quote me on this but I'm pretty sure I heard Elliott Friedman the other day on the radio or podcast or what have you discussing how he thinks the blue jackets are going to be much better this year than people anticipate. I can't remember exactly but I'm fairly sure it was blue jackets he was talking about.

Hope y'all do well though and can avoid the injury bug (it seems it struck your team rather hard last season yeah?) . Wishing y'all the best o luck.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Leaf fan here coming in peace.
Interested in the outlook of y'all here because I think you guys have a good team. What's the informed opinion around here on wennburg having a bigger year, Jenner scoring 25-30, etc?

Also don't quote me on this but I'm pretty sure I heard Elliott Friedman the other day on the radio or podcast or what have you discussing how he thinks the blue jackets are going to be much better this year than people anticipate. I can't remember exactly but I'm fairly sure it was blue jackets he was talking about.

Hope y'all do well though and can avoid the injury bug (it seems it struck your team rather hard last season yeah?) . Wishing y'all the best o luck.

Jenner had that one 30 goal year which I believe is an outlier. I'm thinking 15 goal range for him.

Wennberg enters the season with as many question marks as answers. Could be a strong 2C might not be. I, like many others here, are of the mind that he'll need to shoot more to be a useful top 6 players. He's pretty much a one trick pony-pass, pass, pass-and the book is out on him.

I don't know if many on this branch of the board would consider my opinion "well informed"

Good luck with the Leafs. Envious of you guys getting to watch Marner, Matthews and Nylander excel for the next 10 or so years.

 

[Old Guy]

Leaf fan here coming in peace............I can't remember exactly but I'm fairly sure it was blue jackets he was talking about.

The best analogy I can use about this team is the Washington Capitals playoff history. Going into last year, everybody said "Well....until they do it (get past the 2nd round), they can't do it. All they have to do is do it." With the CBJ they will have their detractors/doubters until they "do it" (whatever it is - win a round; go to the ECF/SCF). When the breakthrough occurs (and it will happen!), everybody will be either (A) Shocked about "how they came out of nowhere" or (B) "well its about time....I have been predicting this for the last 7 years".

As for your specifics; Jenner is most likely a 15-18 goal scorer. Wennberg is this community's whipping boy until he "does it" (then it probably still won't end in these parts). Not to be stupidly simple about this, but Wennberg will either play a big role in it happening or he won't. One of the "up and commers" might break through. Those are the reasons we watch, cheer, b*tch, and bite our wrists.

 

[Maylo]

So Dom has us winning the metro in his model. Pittsburgh just came out with second place.
Luszczyszyn: 2018-19 NHL season previews

 

[major major]

Jenner had that one 30 goal year which I believe is an outlier. I'm thinking 15 goal range for him.
.

C'mon now, Jenner nearly had 15 goals last year despite one of the most epic stretches of useless hockey I've ever seen.

If he plays the full season with Wennberg, and gets some PP time, I think 20-25 goals is reasonable. Remove one of those conditions, then 15-20 goals.

I'm also interested in seeing how Jenner's new on-ice training program (the "PEP") works for him. It would seem to round out his game.

 

[major major]

So Dom has us winning the metro in his model. Pittsburgh just came out with second place.
Luszczyszyn: 2018-19 NHL season previews

The real key here, is that any model that uses three year averages for player production AND uses age adjustment is going to have the Jackets scoring a lot of goals going forward. For all the talk about our inept offense, this team is loaded for bear with potential 20 or 25 goal scorers. The players are mostly at ages where you expect them to get better, and yet last year was below the norm for many of them. Put that together and you get a big increase in projected scoring. Put that together with Bob in net and the team has a good shot at another 100+ point season.


Dom's model:
"The projections are entirely at the player level and are based on an all-in-one stat I created a little over a year ago called Game Score. It combines all the basic box score stats into one number to measure a player’s value. As one season isn’t really enough to get a good read on a player, I use the last three seasons instead. The seasons were weighted by recency using a multi-variate regression and the results of that are regressed to the mean based on the repeatability of each component and the size of each player’s sample. There’s also an age adjustment as we expect players to get better as they move towards their prime and worse as they move away from it. Lastly, there’s a small adjustment for usage."