Scoring rate difference between 5-on-4 and 4-on-3 PP?

[masa2009]

Is there an estimation of how much more likely a team with a 4 on 3 advantage is to score in the NHL compared to a team with a 5 on 4 advantage?

Thanks.

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[Cunneen]

Any accurate conclusions will be hard to find because of the lack of 4 on 3 chances in an NHL season. While there are a lot of power plays at 5 on 4, the lack of 4 on 3 power plays will likely limit the truth we can pull from any data analysis

 

[66871]

One of my most recent posts in this sub forum links to a paper that gives scoring rates for every personnel situation.

I'm in my phone so it would be bit of a pain for me to find then paste etc. but search my posts in this sub forum and you will find it.

 

[PenguinMario]

One of my most recent posts in this sub forum links to a paper that gives scoring rates for every personnel situation.

I'm in my phone so it would be bit of a pain for me to find then paste etc. but search my posts in this sub forum and you will find it.

This one?

2008-2009 season, goals/60:

5 on 4: 6.54
4 on 3: 6.52

Not much of a difference. I'm sure you can put together the situation minutes and goals for a more recent season and see if that still holds true - though both numbers have probably dropped a bit.

 

[PenguinMario]

Unless I made an excel error, 2011-2012 saw about 200 4v3 minutes and 39 4v3 goals, for a G/60 of 11.66 - much higher than 2008-2009. (5v4 clocked in at 5.9).

What's really notable is that 4v3 minutes dropped to 40% of what they had been only three years earlier. Take the sample size for what it is.