Say Stamkos plays all 82 games this season

Sky04

Registered User
Jan 8, 2009
29,120
18,222
He could honestly score anywhere between 35-55 goals, 65-90 points depending on if he can get his head out of his ass.

The range is an indication of his inconsistency and playing mentality.
 

Poignant Discussion*

I tell it like it is
Jul 18, 2003
8,421
5
Gatineau, QC
Will he still be a ppg or just under ppg caliber player or will he start to slowly decline?

I wouldn't say Stamkos has been "Injury prone" but he has missed a decent number of games in the last couple seasons.

Also, would you say stamkos is still considered a top tier player? I feel like a lot of people have felt he's just an elite sniper that had Marty feeding him pucks rather than an actual quality top tier player.

I'll say he has been injury prone and I doubt he scores 50 or is ppg. Leafs got real lucky with him signing in Tampa
 

Kamiccolo

Truly wonderful, the mind of a child is.
Aug 30, 2011
26,828
16,944
Undisclosed research facility
stamkos is now underrated here

To be fair during his contract sega when it looked he was leaving, Tampa fans were tearing him apart on here talking about how bad he has been and stuff, which was true, just normally fans try to hide it a bit more, so people started checking him out and seen it for themselves.

He is going to be another Havlat, Heatly, Lecalvalier, etc. Someone who was once really good, but just slowly became terrible.

IMO he is bought out with a compliance buyout after the next lockout.
 

Derrty

Cat
Apr 24, 2012
3,904
40
He'll score 40+

Not sure what I was watching, I didn't see his legs being "done". He still looked pretty fast at the WC. Hoping for a healthy bounce back year.
 

Nac Mac Feegle

wee & free
Jun 10, 2011
34,913
9,329
He hasn't been the same since that broken leg.....and I'm not referring to his skating. Seems like he has changed a bit mentally. Not quite as confident and crisp on his shots. Watching the WC and having some of the best playmakers in the world setting him up and he made a lot of mediocre shots that are definitely below his older quality...

That was a hellish injury. Sometimes, guys have a hard time getting over something like that and getting into the same mental groove and aggressiveness. Also, that year of 'where will he sign' doesn't help matters, either.

He might be able to get over it...or he might not. It's all up to him.
 

Mad Brills*

Guest
Do people not remember when Ovi was supposedly washed up and declining?

That was due to him playing under a defensive trap in hunter, and awful oates first year coaching.
 

Big McLargehuge

Fragile Traveler
May 9, 2002
72,188
7,742
S. Pasadena, CA
65 points at the absolute most. It's been a long time since Stamkos impressed me.

Do people not remember when Ovi was supposedly washed up and declining?

Do people not remember the system Washington employed the year Ovi was supposedly washed up and declining (ditto Crosby under Johnston)? Coaching is the least of the concerns with Stamkos.
 

Lampedampe

Registered User
Feb 26, 2015
2,151
767
Hard to predict tbh, drouin might help recreate the old Stamkos. This season his leg will probably be more healed, another off season to work on it etc.

I think it's possible that stamkos returns to his 40-50 goals ppg form.
 

Lovethiscity

Registered User
Nov 9, 2014
1,213
34
Tampa, FL
I expect a lot out of him this season. I don't think the contract was a distraction for him, but I think he was playing a lot more carefully than he should have because he still had to re-sign. I wouldn't say he's been on a "steady decline". He's definitely been up and down, and I think with Drouin on the wing and Kucherov on a separate line, 40 goals is his floor. That's my theory, and I'm basing it largely on an assumption that he's past some mental hurdles.

The worst version of Stamkos we've seen was predictable and cautious. He wasn't just having trouble generating chances on his own; he wasn't trying. It seemed like every few weeks it was the "set play of the month". I don't know if it was trepidation because of upcoming contract negotiations and his recent injury history, or if he was just that reliant on having an assist machine like MSL on the wing. But I think anyone paying any attention will tell you that he wasn't playing the same. He wasn't showing effort to be creative, and it made him predictable. That's also a main reason our PP is still mediocre.

Anyway my point is his drop in production was because of decision-making and willingness. He must have been consciously making the same moves every play. He had to know he was doing it, and the fact that he didn't always play that way in the past tells me he can go back to what works (if what was standing in his way is not longer a factor).
 

DFC

Registered User
Sep 26, 2013
47,176
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NB
I expect a lot out of him this season. I don't think the contract was a distraction for him, but I think he was playing a lot more carefully than he should have because he still had to re-sign. I wouldn't say he's been on a "steady decline". He's definitely been up and down, and I think with Drouin on the wing and Kucherov on a separate line, 40 goals is his floor. That's my theory, and I'm basing it largely on an assumption that he's past some mental hurdles.

The worst version of Stamkos we've seen was predictable and cautious. He wasn't just having trouble generating chances on his own; he wasn't trying. It seemed like every few weeks it was the "set play of the month". I don't know if it was trepidation because of upcoming contract negotiations and his recent injury history, or if he was just that reliant on having an assist machine like MSL on the wing. But I think anyone paying any attention will tell you that he wasn't playing the same. He wasn't showing effort to be creative, and it made him predictable. That's also a main reason our PP is still mediocre.

Anyway my point is his drop in production was because of decision-making and willingness. He must have been consciously making the same moves every play. He had to know he was doing it, and the fact that he didn't always play that way in the past tells me he can go back to what works (if what was standing in his way is not longer a factor).

While I agree with most of this, I'm not nearly so confident that he'll be able to correct it just because he decides to. Predictability has turned him largely invisible, and I feel like his production will depend more on his linemates than any changes he himself makes.

Another thing is, last season, Stamkos was back to being TB's #1C. The year before, it was at LEAST a split between him and Tyler Johnson (I think most numbers say Johnson was actually the #1 from November onward in 14/15). This is actually good news for Stamkos. If the reports are true, and Johnson is now at 100% (and wasn't close to that last year), Stamkos might be a little bit more sheltered again this year, which could help him out a lot, numbers-wise.
 

Revelation

Registered User
Aug 15, 2016
5,298
2,963
He's pretty much the player Ovechkin haters like to pretend Ovechkin is. Largely one trick, subpar defensively (much more of a negative for a center than a winger), nonphysical, doesn't offer much playmaking creativity. Legitimately bad in the playoffs. Probably a 65-70 point player in a healthy year if Drouin can replicate what MSL was doing for Stammer. Tampa should have fetched a king's ransom at TDL for him and used assets/cap space to get more triplet/Killorn/Drouin type guys.
 

Sky04

Registered User
Jan 8, 2009
29,120
18,222
He's pretty much the player Ovechkin haters like to pretend Ovechkin is. Largely one trick, subpar defensively (much more of a negative for a center than a winger), nonphysical, doesn't offer much playmaking creativity. Legitimately bad in the playoffs. Probably a 65-70 point player in a healthy year if Drouin can replicate what MSL was doing for Stammer. Tampa should have fetched a king's ransom at TDL for him and used assets/cap space to get more triplet/Killorn/Drouin type guys.

Half right half completely wrong, you do know the previous 2 years he's cored 65-75 points without Drouin and playing off right? His production is relatively good compared to his play, with Drouin he can easily post 75-85 points.

Nonphsyical? Very few players can actually outmuscle Stamkos along the boards, when he throws a hit they're usually pretty hard and he does well in standing up hits himself. If anything he's extremely fit and takes off-season workouts seriously.

If by "one-trick" you mean having a great shot, then yes include Ovechkin and Stamkos in that category.
 

LeafFever

Registered User
Feb 12, 2016
18,890
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He's pretty much the player Ovechkin haters like to pretend Ovechkin is. Largely one trick, subpar defensively (much more of a negative for a center than a winger), nonphysical, doesn't offer much playmaking creativity. Legitimately bad in the playoffs. Probably a 65-70 point player in a healthy year if Drouin can replicate what MSL was doing for Stammer. Tampa should have fetched a king's ransom at TDL for him and used assets/cap space to get more triplet/Killorn/Drouin type guys.

Stamkos would not waive his NTC clause.
 

East Coast Icestyle

Registered User
Mar 6, 2015
3,269
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Nova Scotia, Canada
He's pretty much the player Ovechkin haters like to pretend Ovechkin is. Largely one trick, subpar defensively (much more of a negative for a center than a winger), nonphysical, doesn't offer much playmaking creativity. Legitimately bad in the playoffs. Probably a 65-70 point player in a healthy year if Drouin can replicate what MSL was doing for Stammer. Tampa should have fetched a king's ransom at TDL for him and used assets/cap space to get more triplet/Killorn/Drouin type guys.

Stamkos is average defensively, not subpar. His biggest mistakes are on the offensive side when he thinks too much.

He's not overly physical, but he's one of the strongest players in the league and puts in the work on ice when he has to. Not every player is physical or has to be.

He's not 'legitimately bad' in the playoffs. He's average on a team with big time playoff performers. That's not that bad. Maybe without them he would have more fire to step up. Look at Hossa as an example of this.

His problem isn't that he's declining, it's not that St Louis made his points for him (if anything I'd say it was 50/50, except the art Ross year, Marty was on fire.) Being played right wing doesn't help, but that problem seems mostly corrected.

His problem is that he wants to be a playmaker, a 200 ft player and an overall better player. Don't get me wrong, he has improved defensively and that's good, but he thinks way too much about trying to pass, trying to carry the puck in, or trying to play defense that he forgets how he was supposed to play; that supposed 'one trick pony'. Seriously, he hesitates on perfect opportunities looking for a pass, a second or two earlier with his shot usually makes a goal. He also doesn't drift into the empty spaces as much as he did before. He's not even getting covered harder, he just doesn't seem to look for it.

It's 100% mental and he needs to look to rush and shoot, drift and shoot, and just give others the puck. He's literally the perfect player to have as a one dimensional monster.
 

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