San Jose Sharks 6 prospect

[Gecklund]

1. Ryan Merkley-73.1%
2. Rudolf Balcers-50.0%
3. Dylan Gambrell-34.0%
4. Josh Norris-37.5%
5. Mario Ferraro-38.3%

Let me know who you think I should add

Planning on going to at least 10 but could go more (depending on if there's a player I like still there)​

Click to read more...

 

[hohosaregood]

I'm going with Chekhovich. He was such a baller during that run to the playoffs.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Still Suomela but Chekovich is a good pick as well.

Quite honestly, I don’t think our prospect pool is all that bad at all.

 

[Gecklund]

Still Suomela but Chekovich is a good pick as well.

Quite honestly, I don’t think our prospect pool is all that bad at all.

It's not awful. But it doesn't have high end talent. Merkley is a good start but the rest realistically top out at 2nd line, 2nd pair players.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

How is Suomela getting recognized as one of our top prospects? Has anyone here seen him play in North America?

 

[Maladroit]

How is Suomela getting recognized as one of our top prospects? Has anyone here seen him play in North America?

Had anyone seen Donskoi play in North America before he came over? Based on his performance in Liiga Suomela is likely already a NHL calibre fourth or potentially third line center. Norris and Gambrell top out as third line centers if absolutely everything goes right in their development.

 

[Gecklund]

Had anyone seen Donskoi play in North America before he came over? Based on his performance in Liiga Suomela is likely already a NHL calibre fourth or potentially third line center. Norris and Gambrell top out as third line centers if absolutely everything goes right in their development.

Um... both Norris and Gambrell have at least second line potential and if everything goes right they can be first line players. Shit if everything goes right they will become the second coming of Gretzky. That was just a dumb thing to say.

 

[Maladroit]

Um... both Norris and Gambrell have at least second line potential and if everything goes right they can be first line players. **** if everything goes right they will become the second coming of Gretzky. That was just a dumb thing to say.

If your analysis of every prospect is just gonna be "gee this guy could magically wake up one day with Gretzky's skillset, who's to say!" then what is even the point. Players who put up the freshman year NCAA numbers Norris did this past season rarely become NHLers let alone second liners. Gambrell probably has slightly higher upside but he's also 22 now and his production declined each season at Denver. Neither of these guys are sure bets to play 100 NHL games let alone become impact players.

 

[STL Shark]

If your analysis of every prospect is just gonna be "gee this guy could magically wake up one day with Gretzky's skillset, who's to say!" then what is even the point. Players who put up the freshman year NCAA numbers Norris did this past season rarely become NHLers let alone second liners. Gambrell probably has slightly higher upside but he's also 22 now and his production declined each season at Denver. Neither of these guys are sure bets to play 100 NHL games let alone become impact players.

Gambrell's usage also changed later on in his career at Denver. Once Terry and Borgstrom got there his sophomore year, he was put into more of a secondary/shutdown role. I think Gambrell can pretty assuredly be a 3C of Tierney's caliber and maybe a shutdown 2C around 50-55 points a season if all goes perfectly.

For Norris, I am interested to see what his numbers look like playing on the top line this year as opposed to a 3rd line role as a freshman. I think he likely has a similar ceiling as Gambrell, but think he is less likely to reach it.

 

[Maladroit]

Gambrell's usage also changed later on in his career at Denver. Once Terry and Borgstrom got there his sophomore year, he was put into more of a secondary/shutdown role. I think Gambrell can pretty assuredly be a 3C of Tierney's caliber and maybe a shutdown 2C around 50-55 points a season if all goes perfectly.

For Norris, I am interested to see what his numbers look like playing on the top line this year as opposed to a 3rd line role as a freshman. I think he likely has a similar ceiling as Gambrell, but think he is less likely to reach it.

True but if either of these players were legitimate top prospects they'd be centering the first line of their NCAA teams. There's really nothing to suggest either guy has second line potential based on the college/major junior scoring profiles of prospects who have progressed to that level in the NHL.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

Had anyone seen Donskoi play in North America before he came over? Based on his performance in Liiga Suomela is likely already a NHL calibre fourth or potentially third line center. Norris and Gambrell top out as third line centers if absolutely everything goes right in their development.

Was Donskoi considered a top prospect at the time?

 

[Gecklund]

If your analysis of every prospect is just gonna be "gee this guy could magically wake up one day with Gretzky's skillset, who's to say!" then what is even the point. Players who put up the freshman year NCAA numbers Norris did this past season rarely become NHLers let alone second liners. Gambrell probably has slightly higher upside but he's also 22 now and his production declined each season at Denver. Neither of these guys are sure bets to play 100 NHL games let alone become impact players.

You literally said if everything goes right. If everything goes right for any prospect then they could be a top line player. Suomela isn't any better a prospect than Norris or Gambrell. He's 24. So probably done progressing according to your logic about Gambrell (or limited at the very least). Now looking for history on stats, I can't find any. Anyway this league isn't the strongest. He probably tops out at 3rd line C. Gambrell wasn't in an offensive role his last season. Norris was on the third line. I think that before we totally decide exactly what they end up being, we should wait to see them in the AHL or NHL.

 

[Maladroit]

You literally said if everything goes right. If everything goes right for any prospect then they could be a top line player. Suomela isn't any better a prospect than Norris or Gambrell. He's 24. So probably done progressing according to your logic about Gambrell (or limited at the very least). Now looking for history on stats, I can't find any. Anyway this league isn't the strongest. He probably tops out at 3rd line C. Gambrell wasn't in an offensive role his last season. Norris was on the third line. I think that before we totally decide exactly what they end up being, we should wait to see them in the AHL or NHL.

If everything goes right in the sense that they reach their ultimate potential. The overwhelming likelihood based on their performance as prospects so far is that neither Norris nor Gambrell ever becomes a regular NHL player. If everything goes right they could be third line centers. I agree that Suomela is done progressing but he's likely already at that level or at least a fourth line center level. I'll take a definite fourth line center with the possibility of being a 3C over two guys who top out as NHL 3Cs if they ever reach their full potential. None of these three are good prospects.

 

[Gecklund]

If everything goes right in the sense that they reach their ultimate potential. The overwhelming likelihood based on their performance as prospects so far is that neither Norris nor Gambrell ever becomes a regular NHL player. If everything goes right they could be third line centers. I agree that Suomela is done progressing but he's likely already at that level or at least a fourth line center level. I'll take a definite fourth line center with the possibility of being a 3C over two guys who top out as NHL 3Cs if they ever reach their full potential. None of these three are good prospects.

I completely disagree. I think Gambrell has potential to be a 2C and Norris a 2W.

 

[Maladroit]

I completely disagree. I think Gambrell has potential to be a 2C and Norris a 2W.

Based on what though? Norris scored about a point per game for the U18 NTDP in his draft year. Recently drafted players who put up similar numbers for the development program in their draft year include JT Miller, Reid Boucher, Nic Kerdiles, Anthony Louis, JT Compher, Alex Tuch and Dylan Larkin. So you've got three outright busts in Boucher, Kerdiles and Louis, a fourth line center in Compher and then three potentially really great outcomes.

But we have a year of NCAA production from Norris to compare to these guys too - Norris scored about 0.6 points per game in his freshman year at Michigan compared to Larkin's 1.3 points per game (more than double Norris' rate) for Michigan at the same age. Tuch was around 0.75 for BC in his draft+1 year and Miller was around a point per game in the OHL. If we're really lucky Norris turns into a similar player to Tuch or Miller but the most likely outcome is him falling in the Compher/Boucher/Kerdiles range of fringe NHL/good AHL player. Suomela is already at that level.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Judging prospects is always a little esoteric, but I am surprised that Chmelevski and Chekhovich aren’t being rated higher. Just based on statistics, their draft+1 numbers are fantastic (considering Chekhovich’s AHL production as a 19-year-old).