Waived: Sam Gagner Waived (Cleared)

Drivesaitl

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I like Gagner as much as the next guy. But it’s not exactly like he’s done much in his last handful of games

0 points and -3 in his last 7 games.

This is as simple as Brown kills penalties and Gagner doesn’t.
Gagner dented a post on an excellent from range shot in just the last game and setup 3 other scoring chances. Gagner CAN kill penalties and did when he was in Detroit. This is not 20yr old one zone Gagner anymore. He's a complete 200ft player and even strong on pucks.

Specious use of stats as well. Gagner is EV on the season and has 5G 5A 10pts in 27GP making him our most productive bottomsix player even as he's had to come in cold all the time. Conversely Connor Brown is the worst player on the ice almost every game, is -10, and has a mere 5assists despite playing twice the amount of games.

Gagner is better at any aspect of hockey than Connor Brown is. Sam doesn't aspire to have friends in high places like some other hangers on. He's his own person.

Connor Brown is only here because of Connor McDavid. I would suspect also the reason Brown has remained in the lineup.
 
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Drivesaitl

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Let's also put to rest the "fact" that Brown is somehow some kind of elite penalty killer. He's not.

Here's the best penalty killing forwards on the Oilers in net G/60 on the PK this season:

#1 Foegele 1.08 GF/60 4.32 GA/60 Net -3.24
#2 McLeod 0.73 GF/60 5.11 GA/60 Net -4.38
#3 Draisaitl 2.93 GF/60 7.33 GA/60 Net -4.40
#4 Ryan 1.85 GF/60 8.02 GA/60 Net -6.17
#5 Brown 0.00 GF/60 6.93 GA/60 Net -6.93
#6 RNH 1.66 GF/60 8.83 GA/60 Net -7.17
#7 Janmark 0.00 GF/60 7.22 GA/60 Net -7.22


So Brown is actually the 5th best penalty killer in terms of net on-ice goals differential... and even there RNH and Janmark are only slightly worse than him.

He's not some sort of savant on the PK.


Add that to the fact that he's f***ing abysmal at 5v5...

0.99 GF/60 and 1.86 GA/60 when he's on the ice... dead last numbers on the team,

He brings nothing in other skills/intangibles either as he's not physical and isn't a faceoff guy.

He plays such a soft perimeter game that he's also dead last on the team among forwards in penalties drawn at 0.22/60 at 5v5 and also 2nd worst in hits/60 among forwards with 2.08 hits/60 at 5v5.

Guy has been a complete dud so far and the only thing keeping him on the team is his relationship with Jackson/McDavid and that he's a "nice guy".

Brown wouldn't even be playing on a Chicago or San Jose roster as they'd put a younger prospect in there instead of a 30 year old with zero upside..

31 other teams would have him waived to the AHL as he's a net negative on the ice.


I actually hope this post ages poorly and Brown turns into an actual decent penalty killer and ends up being a positive on the ice at 5v5 instead of the all-around total negative on the ice that he is now.
What a post! Thank you for the effort. I was just going to look up the numbers. You do all that legwork and the response, from those that are in strong denial is it doesn;t matter, Connor Brown is "still a strong penalty killer" lol

Glad you mentioned also that Brown is abysmal 5on5 and absolutely no reason to have him there on the ice, or even dressed.
 

bucks_oil

Registered User
Aug 25, 2005
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Let's also put to rest the "fact" that Brown is somehow some kind of elite penalty killer. He's not.

Here's the best penalty killing forwards on the Oilers in net G/60 on the PK this season:

#1 Foegele 1.08 GF/60 4.32 GA/60 Net -3.24
#2 McLeod 0.73 GF/60 5.11 GA/60 Net -4.38
#3 Draisaitl 2.93 GF/60 7.33 GA/60 Net -4.40
#4 Ryan 1.85 GF/60 8.02 GA/60 Net -6.17
#5 Brown 0.00 GF/60 6.93 GA/60 Net -6.93
#6 RNH 1.66 GF/60 8.83 GA/60 Net -7.17
#7 Janmark 0.00 GF/60 7.22 GA/60 Net -7.22


So Brown is actually the 5th best penalty killer in terms of net on-ice goals differential... and even there RNH and Janmark are only slightly worse than him.

He's not some sort of savant on the PK.


Add that to the fact that he's f***ing abysmal at 5v5...

0.99 GF/60 and 1.86 GA/60 when he's on the ice... dead last numbers on the team,

He brings nothing in other skills/intangibles either as he's not physical and isn't a faceoff guy.

He plays such a soft perimeter game that he's also dead last on the team among forwards in penalties drawn at 0.22/60 at 5v5 and also 2nd worst in hits/60 among forwards with 2.08 hits/60 at 5v5.

Guy has been a complete dud so far and the only thing keeping him on the team is his relationship with Jackson/McDavid and that he's a "nice guy".

Brown wouldn't even be playing on a Chicago or San Jose roster as they'd put a younger prospect in there instead of a 30 year old with zero upside..

31 other teams would have him waived to the AHL as he's a net negative on the ice.


I actually hope this post ages poorly and Brown turns into an actual decent penalty killer and ends up being a positive on the ice at 5v5 instead of the all-around total negative on the ice that he is now.

These are all great numbers, I'd looked them up myself.... but thank you for posting.

Having said that it makes very little sense to:

1) Evaluate PK numbers by goal differential, shorties are complete gravy, when they happen, they happen... and they happen so infrequently (we have 6 all year vs 40 PPGA) that if you happened to be on the ice for one, it's going to greatly skew your numbers. Once you look at the PK numbers by the actual PRIORITY, which is to prevent a goal against... your numbers have him 3rd on the team.

2) Evaluating a players net contribution at 5v5 does make sense, of course no argument there. Having said that, for a ROLE PLAYER it is also relevant to recognize/evaluate his numbers most directly related to the ROLE. Brown's 1.86 GA/60 is elite. That says you can absolutely trust him to go out for an own zone draw and not get scored on. Over his career that's exactly how he's been used and it's still true today. Unfortunately, this year that's about all he's good for.

He's also got about twice as many takeaways as giveaways, which means he's at least managing the puck well when he has it.

But yeah, the hits are concerning for an "energy" guy.


That's great news!

I didn't have much concern that Gags would be picked up... GMs are too concerned with managing their cap leading into the deadline and you don't waste a claim on a guy as old and tweener as Gags... especially one who is playing in his "home" city. It's a quick call to his agent who would clearly say "let him be and chase a cup in Edmonton".

This was a solid move by Holland (timing wise) to run him through waivers this week.

It'll be nice to see him hoisting the cup this June ;)
 

Drivesaitl

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These are all great numbers, I'd looked them up myself.... but thank you for posting.

Having said that it makes very little sense to:

1) Evaluate PK numbers by goal differential, shorties are complete gravy, when they happen, they happen... and they happen so infrequently (we have 6 all year vs 40 PPGA) that if you happened to be on the ice for one, it's going to greatly skew your numbers. Once you look at the PK numbers by the actual PRIORITY, which is to prevent a goal against... your numbers have him 3rd on the team.

2) Evaluating a players net contribution at 5v5 does make sense, of course no argument there. Having said that, for a ROLE PLAYER it is also relevant to recognize/evaluate his numbers most directly related to the ROLE. Brown's 1.86 GA/60 is elite. That says you can absolutely trust him to go out for an own zone draw and not get scored on. Over his career that's exactly how he's been used and it's still true today. Unfortunately, this year that's about all he's good for.

He's also got about twice as many takeaways as giveaways, which means he's at least managing the puck well when he has it.

But yeah, the hits are concerning for an "energy" guy.



That's great news!

I didn't have much concern that Gags would be picked up... GMs are too concerned with managing their cap leading into the deadline and you don't waste a claim on a guy as old and tweener as Gags... especially one who is playing in his "home" city. It's a quick call to his agent who would clearly say "let him be and chase a cup in Edmonton".

This was a solid move by Holland (timing wise) to run him through waivers this week.

It'll be nice to see him hoisting the cup this June ;)
Hamblin even ran better GA/60mins numbers. In anycase not convinced Brown has been elite in limiting GA and just a statline in any case, on ice metric, and needs wowy consideration as well as QOC consideration.

The sniff test is just like yours. Brown somewhat tentative, non physical, etc.

Nor has Brown always been used as a role player here. The team tried to forcefeed him into topsix at start of season and for stints thereafter meaning that not only is Brown scoreless, shoeles Brown, he is that while having spent topsix time with generational superstars.

Finally GVA TKA NHL stats leave a lot to be desired in both quantification and counting. Specifically with Brown a view to how poor his passing has been probably could be considered. Brown seems to suppress GF even more than GA which negates any argument to have him on ice.
 
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KeithIsActuallyBad

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Sam's a good guy but just can't keep up, and his speed was never the greatest to begin with. I hope he remains with the team in some capacity especially if they go on a deep run, but...
 
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Spawn

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Gagner dented a post on an excellent from range shot in just the last game and setup 3 other scoring chances. Gagner CAN kill penalties and did when he was in Detroit. This is not 20yr old one zone Gagner anymore. He's a complete 200ft player and even strong on pucks.

Specious use of stats as well. Gagner is EV on the season and has 5G 5A 10pts in 27GP making him our most productive bottomsix player even as he's had to come in cold all the time. Conversely Connor Brown is the worst player on the ice almost every game, is -10, and has a mere 5assists despite playing twice the amount of games.

Gagner is better at any aspect of hockey than Connor Brown is. Sam doesn't aspire to have friends in high places like some other hangers on. He's his own person.

Connor Brown is only here because of Connor McDavid. I would suspect also the reason Brown has remained in the lineup.
You sound like a conspiracy theorist. McDavid spent two seasons with Connor Brown when he was a 15/16 year old.
 
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Drivesaitl

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You sound like a conspiracy theorist. McDavid spent two seasons with Connor Brown when he was a 15/16 year old.
McDavid vouched for the team obtaining Connor Brown this offseason and last. Thats not my opinion, its statements on record. All those statements are out there. You sound like you don't read much known information before engaging in this kind of post.

I'll do your legwork for you if you've been in a dark cave with dial up internet. ;)

 

Spawn

Something in the water
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McDavid vouched for the team obtaining Connor Brown this offseason and last. Thats not my opinion, its statements on record. All those statements are out there. You sound like you don't read much known information before engaging in this kind of post.

I'll do your legwork for you if you've been in a dark cave with dial up internet. ;)

I know they are friends. That doesn’t mean McDavid is orchestrating roster decisions. It’s an absurd notion at the bottom of the roster.
 

Drivesaitl

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I know they are friends. That doesn’t mean McDavid is orchestrating roster decisions. It’s an absurd notion at the bottom of the roster.
Yeah its sure not absurd to posit that Connor McDavid is the reason Connor Brown is here when I just showed one of many articles saying exactly that.

You can have the last wrong word. ;)
 

elmeroil

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Saw this posted, does anyone know if this means Sam won't actually have to report to Bakersfield?

The Oilers plan to keep Sam Gagner with the NHL club if he clears waivers today. Gagner will be sent to AHL Bakersfield only to remain cap compliant after making pre-deadline additions.

They’re looking at a slew of forwards and defencemen. They’re not in goalie market.
 

tiger_80

Registered User
Apr 11, 2007
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Sam's a good guy but just can't keep up, and his speed was never the greatest to begin with. I hope he remains with the team in some capacity especially if they go on a deep run, but...
I think he's a good depth player to call upon from time to time, but playoffs are a different beast. I like today's additions. And Gagner is still in the system.
 

guymez

The Seldom Seen Kid
Mar 3, 2004
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Saw this posted, does anyone know if this means Sam won't actually have to report to Bakersfield?

The Oilers plan to keep Sam Gagner with the NHL club if he clears waivers today. Gagner will be sent to AHL Bakersfield only to remain cap compliant after making pre-deadline additions.

They’re looking at a slew of forwards and defencemen. They’re not in goalie market.
I heard a report (cant remember from who) that Sam is still with the team.
Very much looks like a paper transaction to give them more cap space.
 

alanschu

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Aug 12, 2005
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Yeah its sure not absurd to posit that Connor McDavid is the reason Connor Brown is here when I just showed one of many articles saying exactly that.

You can have the last wrong word. ;)
Just so I'm clear, though... is your position that the reason why Connor Brown remains on the team and cannot be waived is because he is friends with Connor McDavid?
 

Drivesaitl

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Just so I'm clear, though... is your position that the reason why Connor Brown remains on the team and cannot be waived is because he is friends with Connor McDavid?
Exactly what I stated originally:

Connor Brown is only here because of Connor McDavid. I would suspect also the reason Brown has remained in the lineup.

First part of sentence denoting Connor Mcdavid is the reason Connor Brown was obtained, 2nd part supposition based on first part, and context, but realizing its supposition.

The same Connor McDavid opined that the org should extend Foegele because he is good around on and off the ice. McDavid actually stated that.

McDavid should stay out of such things but I suspect he will even less given Jeff Jacksons presence here.
 

alanschu

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Connor Brown is only here because of Connor McDavid. I would suspect also the reason Brown has remained in the lineup.
The latter part is the thing I can't believe though.

McDavid wants to win. Tell McDavid he gets a bottom 6 player that outperforms Connor Brown and I have a feeling he'll understand, even if he and Brown are good friends. Drake Cagguila is also a good friend of Connor's and is hitting the grind down in Bakersfield.

I remember VD talking about McDavid's desire to win here ‘I don’t care about the stats, I just want to f–king win’ Edmonton Oilers defenceman Vincent Desharnais talks about Connor McDavid’s drive to win
 

bucks_oil

Registered User
Aug 25, 2005
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You can have the last wrong word. ;)
Connor Brown is only here because of Connor McDavid. I would suspect also the reason Brown has remained in the lineup.

Replacement. Surely you jest sir, nobody ever has had the last word with you… especially not on any current crusade, which this has become.

But how about this:

Connor gets what Connor wants

And as a follow up:

This young man is among the top five hockey players in history. He didn’t get there because he lacks understanding of the game. And he didn’t get there because he lacks pure competitiveness and desires excellence from himself and those around him.

He knew (past tense) Brown and vouched for him. Connor Brown knew Connor Brown and vouched for himself. They both got it wrong, much of what made him a great teammate has passed him by…

It wasn’t a conspiracy, or even a terrible bet, he was young enough to recover… but nevertheless he/McD/Holland/we all came out on the wrong side of that bet. Nobody’s perfect.

You need to let it go.
 

AM

Registered User
Nov 22, 2004
8,483
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Edmonton
McDavid vouched for the team obtaining Connor Brown this offseason and last. Thats not my opinion, its statements on record. All those statements are out there. You sound like you don't read much known information before engaging in this kind of post.

I'll do your legwork for you if you've been in a dark cave with dial up internet. ;)

In your experience does every player work out?
These are all great numbers, I'd looked them up myself.... but thank you for posting.

Having said that it makes very little sense to:

1) Evaluate PK numbers by goal differential, shorties are complete gravy, when they happen, they happen... and they happen so infrequently (we have 6 all year vs 40 PPGA) that if you happened to be on the ice for one, it's going to greatly skew your numbers. Once you look at the PK numbers by the actual PRIORITY, which is to prevent a goal against... your numbers have him 3rd on the team.

2) Evaluating a players net contribution at 5v5 does make sense, of course no argument there. Having said that, for a ROLE PLAYER it is also relevant to recognize/evaluate his numbers most directly related to the ROLE. Brown's 1.86 GA/60 is elite. That says you can absolutely trust him to go out for an own zone draw and not get scored on. Over his career that's exactly how he's been used and it's still true today. Unfortunately, this year that's about all he's good for.

He's also got about twice as many takeaways as giveaways, which means he's at least managing the puck well when he has it.

But yeah, the hits are concerning for an "energy" guy.



That's great news!

I didn't have much concern that Gags would be picked up... GMs are too concerned with managing their cap leading into the deadline and you don't waste a claim on a guy as old and tweener as Gags... especially one who is playing in his "home" city. It's a quick call to his agent who would clearly say "let him be and chase a cup in Edmonton".

This was a solid move by Holland (timing wise) to run him through waivers this week.

It'll be nice to see him hoisting the cup this June ;)
I think the coach is putting him out there to do that job.
 

AM

Registered User
Nov 22, 2004
8,483
2,525
Edmonton
McDavid vouched for the team obtaining Connor Brown this offseason and last. Thats not my opinion, its statements on record. All those statements are out there. You sound like you don't read much known information before engaging in this kind of post.

I'll do your legwork for you if you've been in a dark cave with dial up internet. ;)

In your experience does every player work out?
Replacement. Surely you jest sir, nobody ever has had the last word with you… especially not on any current crusade, which this has become.

But how about this:

Connor gets what Connor wants

And as a follow up:

This young man is among the top five hockey players in history. He didn’t get there because he lacks understanding of the game. And he didn’t get there because he lacks pure competitiveness and desires excellence from himself and those around him.

He knew (past tense) Brown and vouched for him. Connor Brown knew Connor Brown and vouched for himself. They both got it wrong, much of what made him a great teammate has passed him by…

It wasn’t a conspiracy, or even a terrible bet, he was young enough to recover… but nevertheless he/McD/Holland/we all came out on the wrong side of that bet. Nobody’s perfect.

You need to let it go.
Not dead yet.
 

Drivesaitl

Finding Hyman
Oct 8, 2017
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Replacement. Surely you jest sir, nobody ever has had the last word with you… especially not on any current crusade, which this has become.

But how about this:

Connor gets what Connor wants

And as a follow up:

This young man is among the top five hockey players in history. He didn’t get there because he lacks understanding of the game. And he didn’t get there because he lacks pure competitiveness and desires excellence from himself and those around him.

He knew (past tense) Brown and vouched for him. Connor Brown knew Connor Brown and vouched for himself. They both got it wrong, much of what made him a great teammate has passed him by…

It wasn’t a conspiracy, or even a terrible bet, he was young enough to recover… but nevertheless he/McD/Holland/we all came out on the wrong side of that bet. Nobody’s perfect.

You need to let it go.
Well, Connor, like any human may have preferences for certain types of individuals, personality types and a lot of this in humans operates unconsciously. Gets into the very meat of who we dislike, like. Best people in their fields are not immune to these types of influences and can often be unaware of them.

Next, familiarity is a major bias with humans. We tend to like that which we know including which people we know, or have known. This features very much in orgs, bureaucracies, teams etc and can lead to the kinds of hiring practices that are commonly viewed as nepotism, for lack of more accurate terms. Where this leads is that often in orgs, teams etc best person known maybe end up being hired over best available person. We tend to see this a lot in the Oilers org historically. Connor is not unique in this, he's just the latest to have this kind of influence and personal bias.

This leads to basic examination of whether known familiarity and preferences is really servicing best available team work. People tend to be at best while being challenged, even challenged by others as you are doing in this post. But this is helpful, and its my belief we all require this. Its a very important feedback mechanism. Indeed some of our learning can come painfully from confrontation. I've worked in such realms.

When I hear the Oilers talk specifically about team concept its very common to hear "he fits in real well" "players are real comfortable with him" "good in the room" and so on. This not being isolated to the Oilers but exists in a lot of teams. However I've read a lot of hockey bios and coach bios and historically it isn't always the team that is comfortable, or friends, or going out with each other etc that achieves excellence. It can often be teams that feature discord, for instance the challenging and very direct to a point leadership of say Mark Messier. Many past coaches also could be very confrontive, painfully so. But the thing is such interaction can be hard, difficult,. It can feel threatening, in the moment divisive, result in lots of emotions.

I'm sure you've had work experiences where you disliked somebody or a manager, coworker and later found out that the persons input, style, while uncomfortable may result in positive gains, different outlooks, varied perspective etc. This Oilers team, not for the first time but chronic with this org, has had dives into these comfort and familiarity patterns. The org has even recognized this and hired some shake it up people at times that were direct. The intention being to increase difficulty, even going as far to do a "bootcamp". (to me poorly executed and conceived) I could write a lot more on this due to it being around my wheel house. But its far over and above discussion on a hockey forum. if you wanted I could go into much more depth. Suffice now to say though that the major overview is not blame of McDavid for this, he just falls into patterns humans invariably can feel. He's in an incredibly challenging environment. The comfort of familiarity and having some people around from less stressful times would be like a drug. Not his fault. Perhaps the org is sensing the value in that and looking off Browns specific performance.

But for Connor Brown my view is different. One has to know when one is done. I had this voyage myself so I'm not speaking out of turn here or on something I don't know of. The first person to look at self and know that they can no longer meet challenges of a very stressful work environment or occupation ultimately needs to be oneself. I could have continued to make good income in my field. I got out when I should. Thats honest, and its best practice for all involved. Connor Brown is not just failing on ice, he's failing in his cognitions of present performance. Not sure if you've seen the two articles but Matheson and I think it was Spector, but they had extensive articles with Connor Brown where Brown himself is saying such things as He's still got it, all it takes is for a goal to go in, that everything will just come then. It is denial at this point.

But thank you foremost for challenging me. Now, and almost always. ;)

cheers
 

Drivesaitl

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The latter part is the thing I can't believe though.

McDavid wants to win. Tell McDavid he gets a bottom 6 player that outperforms Connor Brown and I have a feeling he'll understand, even if he and Brown are good friends. Drake Cagguila is also a good friend of Connor's and is hitting the grind down in Bakersfield.

I remember VD talking about McDavid's desire to win here ‘I don’t care about the stats, I just want to f–king win’ Edmonton Oilers defenceman Vincent Desharnais talks about Connor McDavid’s drive to win
There can be no doubt that Connor McDavid is one of the most driven hockey players that has existed.

But if I can go back quite a while even the best players on Earth, the 80's Edmonton Oilers had to see the NYI dressingroom, the broken and bruised bodies, to see fully, for themselves, what degree of desire it took to win a championship. Mark Messier himself described the journey intimately. Early in his pro career he had multiple thoughts of retiring, of getting out. Because he became aware that to excel in hockey, to get to the champion level required giving up everything else. That you don't get to the top of the mountain without that.

Hockey particularly is this kind of testing metal. Its what makes NHL playoffs so enticing. No other sport is quite like it. The playoff journey features so many stories each spring. Of teams believing, feeling they have it all, until they meet a team that dissuades them of that, and that have more of that. To beat a team in one game, 60mins, thats a feature of many sports. But hockey is different. 7 game series becomes the octagon. You're not getting out without blood, and hockey is a blood sport. (Unlike Basketball imo)

So in short Connor McDavid probably has the best individual drive in sport. But he may not be specifically Mark Messier enough to obtain that same ingredient from others. Not that it should have to be his domain, but nobody told Mark to do that either. Messier realized the need for it.

Something goes awry with this team at certain challenging moments and we've had multiple instances when the club seemed on the rocks and including this season. An ingredient the Oilers seemingly need is more voices in the room that speak perseverance effectively. Maybe they're getting that in the room. Maybe they've been obtaining that.

In your experience does every player work out?
In my Oilers fan experience? No. heh
 

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