Salary Cap: Salary cap and EDM's team in the future

[rockinghockey]

With the Canadian dollar having a very strong corolation with the NHL salary cap I can see the cap not going up much in the next couple of years. It may be even be possible that we see a slight decline. This is why I was impressed when Sekera was signed to a respectable cap hit of 5.5mil. The only reason why the cap is where it is now is because the players opted for the 5 percent.

Do we go after a UFA that will help us out now but in 3 yrs they can real be a hindrance or do we go with what we have and hope we can sign a UFA for 2 or 3 yrs?
How much would signing Seabrook hurt the team depth. In 3-4 yrs and him not being a top 4 dman.

Chia has to ensure that he does not hurt the team to improve for the next three years but not be able to sign our young players when they will be the ones to carry us for 10 yrs plus.

Let's take a look at our team as of now:
Pouliot, RNH, Eberle 16 mil
Hall, McDavid, Yak 12.275
Korpikoski, Lander, Purcell 7 887 500
Hendricks, Letestu, Klinkhammer/Gaszdic 5.125
Fwds total 41 287 500

Sekera, Fayne 9 125 000
Klefbom, Schultz 4 919 000
Ference, Gryba/Nikitin 9 000 000
Dmen total 23 044 000

Talbot, Scrivens 4 750 000

Team total 69 081 500
My logic for this year is let the coach and the team develop and the GM can evaluate what we have. Who fits in and who does not. Buying out Nikitin just extends money on the cap. Signing a player like Seabrook if he becomes available will hurt this team when McDavid, Nurse, and LD will need to be paid.

Next year we will have the following line up:
Pouliot, RNH, Eberle 16 mil
Hall, McDavid, Yak 12 275 000
Korpikospi, Lander, LD 6 787 500
Hendricks, Letestu,? 3 650 000
Fwds total 38 712, 000

Sekera, Fayne 9 125 000
Nurse, Klefbom (Klefbom 4.25mil) 5 963 000
Reinhart (4mil), Ference 7 250 000
Total dmen 21 051, 000
Goalie 6 mil for two
Team total 68 696 500
We would need to fill 3 fwd positions. This is were the development of our prospects like Yakimov and others will be needed to keep the cap hit down. This is year two of Mcdavid's contract. Does Schultz come back or do we look at a dman for around 6-7 mil.

Reinhart and LD are both RFAs and will require new contracts. What would their cap hit be for the following year. Yak is either going to be moved or signed to a deal depending on how he has progressed. Lander will be due for a new contract, how much has he proved himself. Is Klefbom a legit 3 dman.

This year we loose more UFAs that have some pretty big cap hits
Pouliot, RNH, Eberle 16 mil
Hall, McDavid, Yak(6mil) 15 775 000
LD, Lander,? (LD 2yr 4.5; Lander 2.8) ? 7 300 000
?, Letestu,? 1 800 000
Fwds 39 075 000
3 more fwds to sign
Sekera, Klefbom 9 750 000
Nurse, Reinhart 5 713 000
? , ?
Dmen total 15 463 000
3 more dmen neede
Goalies 6 mil
Team total 50 538 000
This is when Nurse and McDavid will require big raises with Eberle 1 yr away from UFA, Hall 2, and RNH 3. We have to take into consideration that Klefbom, Yak, Reinhart, LD and Lander sign for that amount.

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[ChaoticOrange]

I wrote an article about this exact subject - it's unposted, and sitting on my computer right now. I'll link it in this thread once I'm allowed.

 

[rockinghockey]

Thanks

I think people think we have lots of cap space but we really don't. One bad signing can hurt this team.
I see a signing like Seabrook hurting this team in 4 yrs unless we are fine in letting our best players flourishing some where else

 

[BlowbyBlow]

I see the cap always hurting you if your winning and everyone's developing.

What hurts teams the most however are dead contracts: buyouts, over paying players not performing to a high standard, and injuries.

If your a smart enough G.M your always replacing guys with younger, cheaper talent that can replace veterans. You also always have to assess who is worth the money/and worth keeping vs getting caught in deals you can't get out.

 

[Oilwings]

How much do you guys say the cap will be in the next few yrs?

15-16 $71.4M (McDavid's entry yr)
16-17 $74M
17-18 $77M
18-19 $80M McDavid's 8yr deal kicks in

Anyone have those cap projections?

 

[Stud Muffin]

Can the 5% be added every season?

 

[thadd]

Do we have any bad contracts?

Yes. Nikitin, Ference and Purcell are bad contracts.
Justin Schultz will be if we resign him and he doesn't live upto his potential.

Ference is on the tap for 2 more years. He's been paid the money you normally give a crappy #4 or a good #5 d-man, right? If Nurse and Reinhart both trend positively next season I'm sure that PC will convince him to waive his NTC to go to a few teams after next season. We'll eat 1M in salary.

Nikitin and Purcell come off of the books after next season. Justin Schultz will too if he doesn't earn a spot on the team. Pretty sure Justin Schultz is going to get less money through arbitration. We still need another top 4 d-man just to become a legitimately competitive team.

You'd be crazy to worry about our young forwards eating up too much cap space, because they're all on great contracts and they'll be easy to move for great assets that could potentially make us an even better team because I think it's pretty obvious that we've got too many players that are pure skill guys.

I'm not worried one bit.

 

[thadd]

How much do you guys say the cap will be in the next few yrs?

15-16 $71.4M (McDavid's entry yr)
16-17 $74M
17-18 $77M
18-19 $80M McDavid's 8yr deal kicks in

Anyone have those cap projections?

I'm too much of a pessimist when it comes to looking at the state of the world economy to be able to believe that the cap will be able to continue to rise like this.

At some point this has to backfire on the NHL.

You raise the ceiling and you have to raise the floor. You raise the floor and then there are more teams who are spending more than they can afford to spend. With the added revenue sharing having more teams in need of that revenue sharing means that there will be more teams that will be raising ticket prices even further.

Right now there are tons of people who are complaining about the insane ticket prices, but if they keep raising the ticket prices there has to be some breaking point.

At what point will only corporate sponsors and the 1% of the 1 percenters be able to go to games?

Carolina, Florida, Tampa, Buffalo, Phoenix... correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't these weak hockey markets? I don't believe that Kansas or Seattle would be strong hockey markets and I get the feeling that Quebec city would be walking on pins and needles to some extent.

Who knows, maybe they can keep steamrolling away till 18-19, but I got this weird feeling in my bones that says that the very nature of the cap will have to change significantly in a few years so that the NHL doesn't price itself out of existence.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I'm too much of a pessimist when it comes to looking at the state of the world economy to be able to believe that the cap will be able to continue to rise like this.

At some point this has to backfire on the NHL.

You raise the ceiling and you have to raise the floor. You raise the floor and then there are more teams who are spending more than they can afford to spend. With the added revenue sharing having more teams in need of that revenue sharing means that there will be more teams that will be raising ticket prices even further.

Right now there are tons of people who are complaining about the insane ticket prices, but if they keep raising the ticket prices there has to be some breaking point.

At what point will only corporate sponsors and the 1% of the 1 percenters be able to go to games?

Carolina, Florida, Tampa, Buffalo, Phoenix... correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't these weak hockey markets? I don't believe that Kansas or Seattle would be strong hockey markets and I get the feeling that Quebec city would be walking on pins and needles to some extent.

Who knows, maybe they can keep steamrolling away till 18-19, but I got this weird feeling in my bones that says that the very nature of the cap will have to change significantly in a few years so that the NHL doesn't price itself out of existence.

Buffalo just attracted 17,000 paying customers to a scrimmage in July. They're a hop skip and a jump down the road from the biggest hockey market on Earth.

They're the farthest thing from a weak market.

 

[ivanthebad*]

Buffalo just attracted 17,000 paying customers to a scrimmage in July. They're a hop skip and a jump down the road from the biggest hockey market on Earth.

They're the farthest thing from a weak market.

They are going to be a deadly team as they already have some key role players. Lots of dimensions moving forward. Buf fans should be very excited

 

[rockinghockey]

How much do you guys say the cap will be in the next few yrs?

15-16 $71.4M (McDavid's entry yr)
16-17 $74M
17-18 $77M
18-19 $80M McDavid's 8yr deal kicks in

Anyone have those cap projections?

I don't see the cap that high.
The only reason it is as high as it is today is because of the players accepting the 5 percent increase

 

[LTIR]

Reinhart 4M?? Really?? He isnt RFA for another 2 more seasons and will be making half of what u said if he is playing behind Sekera,Klef and Nurse. A Marincin like extension is more realistic than a 4M /yr deal

 

[Dimensha]

There should be some increase when a couple expansion franchises add a billion to NHL coffers

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Honestly the cap plateauing for the next couple years would be the best thing for the Oilers. Even if we have the best (realist) outcome over the next couple years, if the cap levels off that means you can likely get McDavid somewhere in the 8-10 range over 8 years vs. the 11-12 million a season that a raising cap would help to create.

Leading the team to 3 cups over 6 years more than justifies their payday, but Kane's and Toews' contracts are going to handcuff Chicago with the cap not moving. They already are to the point, as just 1 bloated contract (Bickell) is already severely limiting their competitiveness.

 

[McQuixote]

With the Canadian dollar having a very strong corolation with the NHL salary cap I can see the cap not going up much in the next couple of years. It may be even be possible that we see a slight decline. This is why I was impressed when Sekera was signed to a respectable cap hit of 5.5mil. The only reason why the cap is where it is now is because the players opted for the 5 percent.

Is the Canadian dollar projected to keep falling? The NHL should likely keep growing, but the current stagnation is largely the result of the dollar falling in respect to that growth. But if the dollar stays at the level it is now (80 cents?), we should get similar to slightly lower growth than the usual $5-6 million per team. And if the Canadian dollar rebounds, there should be a year or two of massive cap growth.

Or am I mistaken? IANAEconomist.

 

[Dimensha]

Is the Canadian dollar projected to keep falling? The NHL should likely keep growing, but the current stagnation is largely the result of the dollar falling in respect to that growth. But if the dollar stays at the level it is now (80 cents?), we should get similar to slightly lower growth than the usual $5-6 million per team. And if the Canadian dollar rebounds, there should be a year or two of massive cap growth.

Or am I mistaken? IANAEconomist.

I have seen some recent projections that the dollar may drop as low as 70 cents in the coming months

 

[Fourier]

Is the Canadian dollar projected to keep falling? The NHL should likely keep growing, but the current stagnation is largely the result of the dollar falling in respect to that growth. But if the dollar stays at the level it is now (80 cents?), we should get similar to slightly lower growth than the usual $5-6 million per team. And if the Canadian dollar rebounds, there should be a year or two of massive cap growth.

Or am I mistaken? IANAEconomist.

The impact of the dollar is real but typically less than most believe. A ball park estimate is that every 1 cent drop in the $CDN would cut about $200K from the cap. So an $.80USD rate for the whole year would take about $1M off the organic growth. That is roughly the same drag as this year.

 

[Fourier]

There should be some increase when a couple expansion franchises add a billion to NHL coffers

Expansion would most likely be a drag on he cap.

 

[Fourier]

I don't see the cap that high.
The only reason it is as high as it is today is because of the players accepting the 5 percent increase

The 5% escalator is status quo though. It would likely be used almost every year going forward.

 

[thadd]

Buffalo just attracted 17,000 paying customers to a scrimmage in July. They're a hop skip and a jump down the road from the biggest hockey market on Earth.

They're the farthest thing from a weak market.

What was their issue before? Was it previous economic conditions? Or was the previous owner having money problems ??

 

[Fourier]

What was their issue before? Was it previous economic conditions? Or was the previous owner having money problems ??

The previous owners was a consortium lead by Tom Golisano so they had money but did not always want to spend it. They bought the team from John Rigas who was indicted for fraud.

Last year the Sabres had 16K season ticket holders. That sounds great but their ticket prices are not that high. The vast majority of their tickets are under $100US.