SABRES WIN LOTTERY!!!! Will pick #1 overall in the 2018 Draft

[26CornerBlitz]

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[jBuds]

Worst team’s odds are up 0.5% from last year’s odds...?

 

[Gabrielor]

I think they went too far on screwing over the 31st team. And when we leave the basement, I’ll feel the same way.

 

[Icicle]

Does it matter? They'll just do the four digit number allotment thing again and bug the first ball so that none of the bad teams can end up with the top pick.

 

[stokes84]

But really, take our odds and divy them out to everyone else.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Icicle]

Is this something they are going to change meaninglessly slightly every year just to keep vocal owners happy every meeting?

 

[Ethan Edwards]

The key point to me in terms of screwing the 31st team is not the odds of picking 1/2/3, ludicrously low as they may be, but the slightly greater odds of picking 4th (a smidge north of 50%). That's based on a post elsewhere and, if accurate, is completely nauseating, almost criminally so.

To get more editorial, I'm anti-lottery as it stands, but for argument's sake were I to agree that one is necessary to deter tanking, at least come up with a better system. In the NHL's pseudo-intellectual attempt at a clever solution, they don't seem to have accounted for a team (or teams) that may genuinely be bad and therefore require an infusion of elite talent, or on the flip side that maybe a team or two, which suffered a couple of untimely injuries and barely missed the playoffs (and fully expect to return when healthy), shouldn't really, in the name of fairness, have any shot at landing a #1 pick. I've heard anti-parity arguments before, but that's a bit extreme IMO. But at least the spinning ping-pong balls make for good TV, I guess.

 

[Chainshot]

So it's an 81.5% chance of disappointment again? Great.

 

[Jame]

Should've taken 6th place down to 7.0% and 3rd down to 10.5%, and with that bumped 1st up to 20%

 

[Jame]

The key point to me in terms of screwing the 31st team is not the odds of picking 1/2/3, ludicrously low as they may be, but the slightly greater odds of picking 4th (a smidge north of 50%). That's based on a post elsewhere and, if accurate, is completely nauseating, almost criminally so.

To get more editorial, I'm anti-lottery as it stands, but for argument's sake were I to agree that one is necessary to deter tanking, at least come up with a better system. In the NHL's pseudo-intellectual attempt at a clever solution, they don't seem to have accounted for a team (or teams) that may genuinely be bad and therefore require an infusion of elite talent, or on the flip side that maybe a team or two, which suffered a couple of untimely injuries and barely missed the playoffs (and fully expect to return when healthy), shouldn't really, in the name of fairness, have any shot at landing a #1 pick. I've heard anti-parity arguments before, but that's a bit extreme IMO. But at least the spinning ping-pong balls make for good TV, I guess.

Why not just have a two tier lottery system:

5 worst teams, all get equal opportunity in a lottery for the top 5 picks.

the next 10 worst teams, all have equal opportunity for lottery for picks 6 thru 15

?

 

[brian_griffin]

I'm fine with a two-tier system. I'd modify it to further define the Leafs pick 29th/30th (in a 32-team league) every year, then the Cup finalists. Wouldn't want to be too punishing...

 

[haseoke39]

Chicago, Edmonton, NYR.

 

[Icicle]

Why not just have a two tier lottery system:

5 worst teams, all get equal opportunity in a lottery for the top 5 picks.

the next 10 worst teams, all have equal opportunity for lottery for picks 6 thru 15

?

The whole argument from the 'big team' crowd was they never had a shot at the #1, which is all they care about. The lottery is only for the first three picks afterall.

 

[Jame]

The whole argument from the 'big team' crowd was they never had a shot at the #1, which is all they care about. The lottery is only for the first three picks afterall.

Which is pretty much a nonsense argument... because A, they have had those shots (See Pitt, Chi, Bos, LA, etc building their franchises with those picks).... and B, well.... that's not really the point of parity.

 

[Icicle]

Which is pretty much a nonsense argument... because A, they have had those shots (See Pitt, Chi, Bos, LA, etc building their franchises with those picks).... and B, well.... that's not really the point of parity.

It's the Owners club. It's not about being fair or right. It's about the big boys shoving their weight around. Chicago, Rangers, and Boston want their #1OA pick and now they've got their (1%) chance. It also takes away some of this tanking BS.

 

[Jame]

It's the Owners club. It's not about being fair or right. It's about the big boys shoving their weight around. Chicago, Rangers, and Boston want their #1OA pick and now they've got their (1%) chance. It also takes away some of this tanking BS.

I think this year proves that it doesn't do anything to deter tanking.

I'm not arguing that the owners aren't MAKING that argument... It's simply a stupid argument

 

[Kyndig]

We have the worst record over a span of the last 4 or 5 years and not a single 1st overall to show for it.

 

[dotcommunism]

But really, take our odds and divy them out to everyone else.

Yes, that's what they're going to do for drawing the second pick after the Sabres win the first one.

 

[valet]

They should have just kept them secret. The lottery is ridiculous.

 

[Kyndig]

It's the Owners club. It's not about being fair or right. It's about the big boys shoving their weight around. Chicago, Rangers, and Boston want their #1OA pick and now they've got their (1%) chance. It also takes away some of this tanking BS.

6.5% for Chicago and 3.5% for the Rangers technically. With the way the odds are setup there's actually a higher chance of all 3 picks being lottery winners over the worst team (50.6%)..nope not broken at all!

Worst team should get the 1st pick period, if a team is deemed cheating somehow then do like the NFL and take their pick away. There's a pretty good chance I'm done with hockey this year given the lottery odds because if Chicago, LA, Detroit, or Edmonton win the lottery I'm dropping hockey just like I dropped TWD after that episode that went full Pejorative Slur last week.

8.5% Detroit had made the playoffs something like 20 years in a row and won the cup 9 years ago
6.5% Chicago had 109 points last season and won the cup 3x in the last 7 years.
5% Edmonton because McDavid and every other 1st overall they've had
1% LA has won the cup 2x in the last 5 years

6 of the last 9 cups have gone to these teams and they collectively have a decent chance of winning one of the best defensive prospects in hockey. It's bullshit like this that makes the lottery a terrible idea.

 

[MayDay]

So it's an 81.5% chance of disappointment again? Great.

That's why my heart just isn't in the tank this year.

I'd be really excited about getting Dahlin, but the odds are just overwhelmingly against it, even if we finish dead last. It's not something I am counting on in the least.

Failing that, I am content with a top 5 pick, but for that, it's not necessary for us to finish dead last. Anywhere in the bottom 3 makes a top 5 pick almost certain, so all this scoreboard watching of Arizona and Vancouver seems kind of pointless to me. Even if one of them passes us, it's not going to make a big difference, and the lottery is going to scramble the top 5 order anyway.

 

[Jame]

6.5% for Chicago and 3.5% for the Rangers technically. With the way the odds are setup there's actually a higher chance of all 3 picks being lottery winners over the worst team (50.6%)..nope not broken at all!

Worst team should get the 1st pick period, if a team is deemed cheating somehow then do like the NFL and take their pick away. There's a pretty good chance I'm done with hockey this year given the lottery odds because if Chicago, LA, Detroit, or Edmonton win the lottery I'm dropping hockey just like I dropped TWD after that episode that went full ****** last week.

8.5% Detroit had made the playoffs something like 20 years in a row and won the cup 9 years ago
6.5% Chicago had 109 points last season and won the cup 3x in the last 7 years.
5% Edmonton because McDavid and every other 1st overall they've had
1% LA has won the cup 2x in the last 5 years

6 of the last 9 cups have gone to these teams and they collectively have a decent chance of winning one of the best defensive prospects in hockey. It's bull**** like this that makes the lottery a terrible idea.

Given what Buffalo did leading up to the McDavid draft... it's hard to call the lottery a terrible idea....

 

[Kyndig]

Given what Buffalo did leading up to the McDavid draft... it's hard to call the lottery a terrible idea....

So a team that has won 3 cups in the last 7 years and still has elite talent should win the lottery? It's not like we had elite talent, we traded everyone away and rebuilt. HUGEEEE difference.

 

[Chainshot]

Given what Buffalo did leading up to the McDavid draft... it's hard to call the lottery a terrible idea....

They made no changes when the Pens went all in for Lemieux or their rush to the bottom that lead to the Sid draft era.