Confirmed with Link: Sabres re-sign Dahlin 8 years $88 million ($11 million AAV)

[MOGlLNY]

I think it's a bit too much. *shrug*

I've also been focused elsewhere. If I don't find some employment soon, I will be doing the Good, the Bad, and the Living Under a Bridge on game nights.

Something will come along brother, been job hunting for something better than my current role for a few months now. It's a really tough market.

But that's for another thread.

 

[Zman5778]

I agree, 12% was always my number, strictly from a roster construction standpoint.

The good news is that if the cap goes up to $92M, then Dahlin's cap hit will be 12% of the cap. If you look at CapFriendly, they are already predicting that the cap will be $92M in year 2 of the deal.

As long as the cap keeps going up, this deal is going to look better and better.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

I discourage all this "cap will go up" talk to rationalize an overpayment. Buying a car that you can't really afford based on a raise you're counting on that hasn't yet materialized is foolish.

The cap varies directly with Hockey Related Revenue. If we encounter a significant recession, many fewer fans will be purchasing season's tickets and yet another cheesy 3rd jersey variant.

 

[beerme1]

Ras looked genuine when he said he's happy this is done. I'm very much on board for this deal for this guy. He is different, and he is locked up long term. Thank you Ras!

 

[HOOats]

I discourage all this "cap will go up" talk to rationalize an overpayment. Buying a car that you can't really afford based on a raise you're counting on that hasn't yet materialized is foolish.

The cap varies directly with Hockey Related Revenue. If we encounter a significant recession, many fewer fans will be purchasing season's tickets and yet another cheesy 3rd jersey variant.

I imagine that the multimillion dollar businesses that make up the multibillion dollar league are including macroeconomic forecasts including possible recession in their models projecting HRR and future caps. Are teams supposed to insist that those projections don't exist? Doubtful that players' agencies would cooperate with that.

Anyways, every team is operating in the same uncertain, but projected-accurately-as-possible environment, so what's the big deal?

 

[TheBarnIsElectric]

Cap is a little higher than I was originally thinking, but the 8 year term was always the biggest thing. I'm happy.

Dahlin seems very happy. Almost too happy. Lol. Like "he would have signed for less" happy. Oh well.

We're still in good shape to have a very deep team for a long time.

 

[joshjull]

Yeah, I had the 11.7% stuck in my head with the Fox, McAvoy, Werenski deals as the top of it. Good for him to break new ground I suppose - if the cap does grow as the league office is hinting, then it shifts and that's fine. Glad he's happy, hopefully this season continues his coming out party.

You’re comparing contracts of different lengths (6,7+8) in different circumstances (RFA yrs vs UFA yrs) from 2 off-seasons ago in a very different NHL economic environment. I know you know this. But I don’t understand the thinking they would be a limit on what Dahlin could get. It would certainly be a jumping off point but not a limit.

EDIT: The following is something I’ve been thinking about and isnt specific to your post. Just using it as a jumping off point…..

I’ve also never understood the concrete value fans/press give % of the cap. To the extent they debate it to the tenth or even hundredth place. It’s interesting to use when comparing deals. I‘ve certainly done it. But I very much doubt front offices or agents use it, at least not the degree fans/press like to lean into it.


It’s also a weird stat. It can apply to either the first year of the deal or the season before the contract starts (Like Dahlin) denpending on when its sigend. Teams don’t have a finite amount of cap space (barring a pandemic). So the % of cap space is going to go down year to year. Why would the % of the cap matter that much at the start of a contract? Especially if it’s the year before a contract even starts?

 

[Gras]

You’re comparing contracts of different lengths (6,7+8) in different circumstances (RFA yrs vs UFA yrs) from 2 off-seasons ago in a very different NHL economic environment. I don’t undertand why there was thinking they would be a limit on what Dahlin could get. It would certainly be a jumping off point but not a limit.

I’ve also never understood the concrete value fans/press give % of the cap. To the extent they debate it to the tenth or even hundredth place. It’s interesting to use when comparing deals. I‘ve certainly done it. But I very much doubt front offices or agents use it, at least not the degree fans/press like to lean into it.


It’s also a weird stat. It can apply to either the first year of the deal or the season before the contract starts (Like Dahlin) denpending on when its sigend. Teams don’t have a finite amount of cap space (barring a pandemic). So the % of cap space is going to go down year to year. Why would the % of the cap matter that much at the start of a contract? Especially if it’s the year before a contract even starts?

% of cap when contract is sign/goes into effect is the one that matters for comparing contracts, more useful than actual cap hit.

 

[joshjull]

% of cap when contract is sign/goes into effect is the one that matters for comparing contracts, more useful than actual cap hit.

All the % stats on Capfriendly are based on when contract is signed. Its not based on when it starts. They can‘t know that until it’s official. The 13.7% for Dahlin is based on this seasons upper limit. If the projected upper limit of 88mil happens for next season then his deal would be 12.5% of the cap. I’m pretty confident many using the stat for older contracts are not looking things up beyond what Cap-friendly says.

EDIT: My bigger point was about fans/press overplaying the importance of this stat, especially when they take it out to the tenth or hundredths place. I doubt GMs/agents do this. How could they? It would be based on a guesstimate for the next seasons upper limit.

As for how much it matters when comparing contracts, it’s useful but it’s just a starting point. Other things like age, how longer ago a contract was signed, RFA yrs, UFA yrs matter more.

 

[slip]

Love it. I was hearing rumors of him wanting to do only 4 years and my heart sank.

Worth every penny. Now lets make the f***ing playoffs already!

 

[Gras]

All the % stats on Capfriendly are based on when contract is signed. Its not based on when it starts. They can‘t know that until it’s official. The 13.7% for Dahlin is based on this seasons upper limit. If the projected upper limit of 88mil happens for next season then his deal would be 12.5% of the cap. I’m pretty confident many using the stat for older contracts are not looking things up beyond what Cap-friendly says.

EDIT: My bigger point was about fans/press overplaying the importance of this stat, especially when they take it out to the tenth or hundredths place. I doubt GMs/agents do this. How could they? It would be based on a guesstimate for the next seasons upper limit.

As for how much it matters when comparing contracts, it’s useful but it’s just a starting point. Other things like age, how longer ago a contract was signed, RFA yrs, UFA yrs matter more.

I made a post in one of the threads and I went and calculated the % myself based on the cap of when a contract was signed

 

[Fezzy126]

You’re comparing contracts of different lengths (6,7+8) in different circumstances (RFA yrs vs UFA yrs) from 2 off-seasons ago in a very different NHL economic environment. I know you know this. But I don’t understand the thinking they would be a limit on what Dahlin could get. It would certainly be a jumping off point but not a limit.

EDIT: The following is something I’ve been thinking about and isnt specific to your post. Just using it as a jumping off point…..

I’ve also never understood the concrete value fans/press give % of the cap. To the extent they debate it to the tenth or even hundredth place. It’s interesting to use when comparing deals. I‘ve certainly done it. But I very much doubt front offices or agents use it, at least not the degree fans/press like to lean into it.


It’s also a weird stat. It can apply to either the first year of the deal or the season before the contract starts (Like Dahlin) denpending on when its sigend. Teams don’t have a finite amount of cap space (barring a pandemic). So the % of cap space is going to go down year to year. Why would the % of the cap matter that much at the start of a contract? Especially if it’s the year before a contract even starts?

Do you have anything to back up the bolded? I find it odd that you think this because most calculations in the CBA use percentages, e.g. revenue sharing between teams and players, minimum and maximum annual values for contracts, variance in salaries between years, bonus allocations, just to name a few.

I would say percentage of cap at the time of signing is one of the most predictive measures for player value. That's not to say it can't evolve, which we've seen this year with the Matthews and Dahlin contracts, but that doesn't make it less meaningful as a metric to be used in discussion and setting expectations.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

I’m not. I think there are a lot of people who still haven’t figured out exactly how good Dahlin is. In their minds, he had one roughly top 10-ish season at his position, and this contract is some kind of huge gamble.

Been fighting the good fight for about 4 years now.

 

[Chainshot]

You’re comparing contracts of different lengths (6,7+8) in different circumstances (RFA yrs vs UFA yrs) from 2 off-seasons ago in a very different NHL economic environment. I know you know this. But I don’t understand the thinking they would be a limit on what Dahlin could get. It would certainly be a jumping off point but not a limit.

EDIT: The following is something I’ve been thinking about and isnt specific to your post. Just using it as a jumping off point…..

I’ve also never understood the concrete value fans/press give % of the cap. To the extent they debate it to the tenth or even hundredth place. It’s interesting to use when comparing deals. I‘ve certainly done it. But I very much doubt front offices or agents use it, at least not the degree fans/press like to lean into it.


It’s also a weird stat. It can apply to either the first year of the deal or the season before the contract starts (Like Dahlin) denpending on when its sigend. Teams don’t have a finite amount of cap space (barring a pandemic). So the % of cap space is going to go down year to year. Why would the % of the cap matter that much at the start of a contract? Especially if it’s the year before a contract even starts?

Why not? It's a comparison. Most people just trot out the raw AAV and that doesn't tell nearly the story that percentage of cap does. Making raw dollar comparisons is just less nuanced. Let's use one that's very close: McAvoy's deal, signed about one year by age older than Dahlin, at 11.66%/$9.5M AAV for the same 8 year term and with similar NTC protections (Dahlin has one more full year, starting earlier and no partial at the end like McAvoy does). So if a team is going to value Dahlin a smidge more than McAvoy - and there could be debate based on handedness and actual defensive shutdown ability that there is merit to McAvoy being a more desired commodity - then how do they assign value? They can't use the raw AAV since the overall cap allocation has changed. So they use % of cap as a comp.

Werenski's was similar in age, like McAvoy and Dahlin with a year still remaining on his bridge and goes deeper at 11.76%/$9.583M AAV but for less term (six years) and also a bit less trade protection (a limited NTC in year 6). So Dahlin has more years with full trade protection and I would say has a strong case for being a better player than Werenski and his group likely is use a figure in excess of that value as a point of recompense. They aren't going to use him as a low end comp, so that's up around 12% pretty much right off the bat. They aren't going to ask for this in 2020-21 season dollars ($81.5M), they'll be looking at current and proposed future value. That the league was some up front about growth is cool, taking that into consideration again puts this into the 12.14ish region that seems fair and not outlandish.

 

[Dirty Dog]

I discourage all this "cap will go up" talk to rationalize an overpayment. Buying a car that you can't really afford based on a raise you're counting on that hasn't yet materialized is foolish.

The cap varies directly with Hockey Related Revenue. If we encounter a significant recession, many fewer fans will be purchasing season's tickets and yet another cheesy 3rd jersey variant.

Agreed for sure. But this specific contract (under the current cap) is neither an overpayment or a contract the Sabres can’t afford. The most relevant thing the rising cap has is making this contract a better deal over time.

So that analogy doesn’t really make sense, the Sabres don’t need a rising cap to afford Dahlin or to rationalize anything.

 

[paulmm3]

Without reading a single comment or letting other people's impressions influence my own yet, this is an awesome deal and a massive win for Buffalo. Stoked about the term especially.

 

[Ralonzo]

Can't say this was a team friendly deal. KA capitulated. Be careful what you wish for Sabre fans cuz the road to cap hell is paved with moves like this. But f*** the future lol....

F*** the tomorrow!

 

[Aladyyn]

Something will come along brother, been job hunting for something better than my current role for a few months now. It's a really tough market.

But that's for another thread.

Took me a year to find my current job, but I'm happier than ever now.

I agree with everyone who doesn't believe in the big cap spike until they see it but even under the current cap trajectory I think the deal is good. It's 7 UFA years

 

[debaser66]

I think it's a bit too much. *shrug*

I've also been focused elsewhere. If I don't find some employment soon, I will be doing the Good, the Bad, and the Living Under a Bridge on game nights.

isnt there any unemployment protection? please excuse my curiosity
anyways I hope you find something soon!

 

[debaser66]

You’re comparing contracts of different lengths (6,7+8) in different circumstances (RFA yrs vs UFA yrs) from 2 off-seasons ago in a very different NHL economic environment. I know you know this. But I don’t understand the thinking they would be a limit on what Dahlin could get. It would certainly be a jumping off point but not a limit.

EDIT: The following is something I’ve been thinking about and isnt specific to your post. Just using it as a jumping off point…..

I’ve also never understood the concrete value fans/press give % of the cap. To the extent they debate it to the tenth or even hundredth place. It’s interesting to use when comparing deals. I‘ve certainly done it. But I very much doubt front offices or agents use it, at least not the degree fans/press like to lean into it.


It’s also a weird stat. It can apply to either the first year of the deal or the season before the contract starts (Like Dahlin) denpending on when its sigend. Teams don’t have a finite amount of cap space (barring a pandemic). So the % of cap space is going to go down year to year. Why would the % of the cap matter that much at the start of a contract? Especially if it’s the year before a contract even starts?

the cap % comparison is also meaningless without context, f.e. how many UFA years are being bought etc.

 

[Jim Bob]

I discourage all this "cap will go up" talk to rationalize an overpayment. Buying a car that you can't really afford based on a raise you're counting on that hasn't yet materialized is foolish.

The cap varies directly with Hockey Related Revenue. If we encounter a significant recession, many fewer fans will be purchasing season's tickets and yet another cheesy 3rd jersey variant.

Maybe, just maybe, Kevyn Adams and the Sabres front office have more information with the future of the cap than we do as fans...

Also, this was not a huge overpayment if Dahlin remains a top 5-10 D in the NHL for the vast majority of the deal. And given how young he is, he should be in his prime for the vast majority of this deal, if not the entirety of it.

And if it took $11M AAV to get him signed for 8 years, Adams had zero choice. Waiting was not going to make the price go down in all likelihood. And signing him to a 4-5 year at a lower AAV would not be smart.

 

[HolyGhost]

Now we need the cap to go up

 

[JLewyB]

Maybe, just maybe, Kevyn Adams and the Sabres front office have more information with the future of the cap than we do as fans...

Also, this was not a huge overpayment if Dahlin remains a top 5-10 D in the NHL for the vast majority of the deal. And given how young he is, he should be in his prime for the vast majority of this deal, if not the entirety of it.

And if it took $11M AAV to get him signed for 8 years, Adams had zero choice. Waiting was not going to make the price go down in all likelihood. And signing him to a 4-5 year at a lower AAV would not be smart.

Well now that hes paid like an elite dman maybe the refs will treat him like one and stop calling ticky tack penalties.

 

[HOOats]

Well now that hes paid like an elite dman maybe the refs will treat him like one and stop calling ticky tack penalties.

Ehhh, he was brutal with the stupid penalties last year. Like scream at the TV brutal. But it's something I absolutely expect him to clean up as he matures his mental game and even rounds out his fitness.

 

[1point21Gigawatts]

How did this narrative start? Because its not true.

The last 3 seasons

20-21 -> Covid season. In and out of the lineup with Krueger. Granato dressed him every night.

21-22 -> Injured 1st game + missed half of the season. Played through an injury the 2nd half.

22-23 -> First full season (82gms) since his 77gms his rookie year 18-19.

When did he supposedly have an hot end to a season and then struggle the 1st half of next one? Let alone it being a pattern.

I am up and down on Mitts. He had a great year last year, but i think it's his consistency that stresses me out. And i may not have taken injuries and RK into account regarding his consistency. I hope he has another year like last year because he was a huge part of our success, but if he stalls out or doesn't come close to matching then i think i am okay with moving on.

I’m not. I think there are a lot of people who still haven’t figured out exactly how good Dahlin is. In their minds, he had one roughly top 10-ish season at his position, and this contract is some kind of huge gamble.

If there is anything i learned yesterday, it's that non sabres fans have no idea how good dahlin is and will continue to become. It's a little frustrating.