Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread: What's The Frequency (of offseason roster changes you'll make), Kenneth?

[Ritchie Valens]

Last thread is well over 1000 posts.

For once, the Oilers don't have a horse in the first few gates of the annual Draft Lottery Derby. In fact, they don't have a horse in it at all. For those interested, it goes tonight at 5:00 p.m. (Mountain Time).

Key future dates:
Draft Lottery: June 2nd
Kraken Draft: July 21st
Entry Draft: July 23rd & 24th
UFA: July 28th

Let's see what Kenneth has up his sleeve from now until the end of July!

Click to read more...

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

There are two different ways of implementing LTIR. One is in-season (most common) and one is out of season. The results are similar but there are subtle differences that make the in-season choice more desirable in most cases. In-season LTIR requires a team to be cap compliant on day 1 of the season before executing LTIR. This is typically done by paper transactons that send players to the minors to clear enough cap space. In Tampa's case they had no choice but to put Kucherov on LTIR out of season because there was no way for them to become cap compliant on day one with him on the roster without waiving players they did not want to lose.

What Tampa did was technically within the rules. I say technically because the part that smells bad of course is Kucherov being unable to play in the last few weeks but being ready for day one of the playoffs. The NHL made noise about watching this carefully but I hav no confidence that there was really any serious effort to monitor his recovery.

Where I get lost is in the transition from out of season to in season. On Day 1 did Kucherov’s salary have to be counted towards the cap?

My understanding is if a player is on LTIR in the off season the salary does not count against the cap when they transition on Day 1.

So if a teams opening day salary is 81.4, 100k is removed from the LTIR recapture and the rest of the LTIR can be used to exceed the cap.

Correct or no?

 

[Paralyzer008]

I wish the Oilers had an analytic department like Tampa or Colorado or Boston.

I look forward to the replies.

Also, Blake Lizotte as a 4C trade target. I would like.

 

[Oilers in NS]

I wish the Oilers had an analytic department like Tampa or Colorado or Boston.

I look forward to the replies.

Also, Blake Lizotte as a 4C trade target. I would like.

@Fourier
u mentioned about MacKinnon. He has already stated that he will take less in order to win

‘I Have No Regrets’: Nathan MacKinnon On Being Underpaid, The Shifting RFA Market (forbes.com)

Boston
The Perfection line. Best value in the league. the 3 of them make less then 21
Tampa
Kucherov and Stamkos both under 10. Most troublesome contract there is Johnson. They get rid of that one, they are good for 3-5 years
Colorado
Rantanen under 10. MacKinnon is a friendly deal till 2023. A few contracts expire the next few years and 2 this year, Landeskog and Saad. Interesting to see if they follow MacKinnon's lead or test UFA

It seems these players bought into the team first philosophy of winning. Leafs are handicap with those 4 contracts. I will see what Holland does in offseason with cap room to see where we fall

 

[Bryanbryoil]

u mentioned about MacKinnon. He has already stated that he will take less in order to win

‘I Have No Regrets’: Nathan MacKinnon On Being Underpaid, The Shifting RFA Market (forbes.com)

Well we'll see, I would be very surprised if his future cap hit is any lower than $10 million.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

I wish the Oilers had an analytic department like Tampa or Colorado or Boston.

I look forward to the replies.

Also, Blake Lizotte as a 4C trade target. I would like.

You state the winning teams but conveniently forgot Toronto, New Jersey and Arizona among the loser teams.

Oilers can buy the analytical data and they have the people to disseminate it.

 

[Arpeggio]

McDavid took less to win too. There's "taking less to win" and still being paid over 10 million. Mackinnon signed his last contract at the worst time for him and the best time for the team. I would be shocked if he took less than 10 on his next contract (though with the Avs luck they'll probably win this year and then he'll score 60 points for a few seasons and drag his number down in time for his next contract).

 

[McJesusSaves97]

Last thread is well over 1000 posts.

For once, the Oilers don't have a horse in the first few gates of the annual Draft Lottery Derby. In fact, they don't have a horse in it at all. For those interested, it goes tonight at 5:00 p.m. (Mountain Time).

Key future dates:
Draft Lottery: June 2nd
Entry Draft: July 23rd & 24th
UFA: July 28th

Let's see what Kenneth has up his sleeve from now until the end of July!

I sure hope he has alot up his sleeve. Every line & D pairing on this team has questions that need to be answered...

 

[McShogun99]

@Fourier
u mentioned about MacKinnon. He has already stated that he will take less in order to win

‘I Have No Regrets’: Nathan MacKinnon On Being Underpaid, The Shifting RFA Market (forbes.com)

Boston
The Perfection line. Best value in the league. the 3 of them make less then 21
Tampa
Kucherov and Stamkos both under 10. Most troublesome contract there is Johnson. They get rid of that one, they are good for 3-5 years
Colorado
Rantanen under 10. MacKinnon is a friendly deal till 2023. A few contracts expire the next few years and 2 this year, Landeskog and Saad. Interesting to see if they follow MacKinnon's lead or test UFA

It seems these players bought into the team first philosophy of winning. Leafs are handicap with those 4 contracts. I will see what Holland does in offseason with cap room to see where we fall

He's going to take the Mcdavid discount where he could sign for 15 million but will instead sign for a team friendly 12 million.

Tampa's team friendly deals can't be compared to the rest of the league. No state taxes means players take home a lot more compared to playing in other states/provinces plus the quality of life aspect from living in Tampa Bay.

 

[Oilers in NS]

He's going to take the Mcdavid discount where he could sign for 15 million but will instead sign for a team friendly 12 million.

Tampa's team friendly deals can't be compared to the rest of the league. No state taxes means players take home a lot more compared to playing in other states/provinces plus the quality of life aspect from living in Tampa Bay.

That state tax is killing Canadian teams. I hate to say this, but I dont think its possible to win a cup in Canada. Look at Stamkos when he signed back in TB. Toronto would have offered him more salary but he will make more in TB with a lesser salary because of no state taxes. The weather sure helps as well

 

[Oilers in NS]

Well we'll see, I would be very surprised if his future cap hit is any lower than $10 million.

He wants to win. His father came from my area. Believe it or not, MacKinnon and Crosby are very humble people. Marchand is from Halifax. He seems like a douche but is actually pretty good fella. Must be something good in the water in Cole Harbour, MacKinnon and Crosby both from the same minor hockey system

 

[doulos]

That state tax is killing Canadian teams. I hate to say this, but I dont think its possible to win a cup in Canada. Look at Stamkos when he signed back in TB. Toronto would have offered him more salary but he will make more in TB with a lesser salary because of no state taxes. The weather sure helps as well

Well it helps that Tampa Bay wins playoff series as well.

 

[McJadeddog]

He's going to take the Mcdavid discount where he could sign for 15 million but will instead sign for a team friendly 12 million.

Tampa's team friendly deals can't be compared to the rest of the league. No state taxes means players take home a lot more compared to playing in other states/provinces plus the quality of life aspect from living in Tampa Bay.

It still boggles the mind that the NHL hasn't accounted for this in the salary cap. How can you claim to have a fair system when some teams basically have 15-20% more money to use?

 

[McJadeddog]

Commenting on this post from the last thread:

"I'm honestly not sure why Hamilton is even being talked about. He's an introverted guy who couldn't handle the Boston and Calgary fishbowls, and was ridiculed strongly for it, now of course hes playing well in a Southern market. I say there's a zero percent chance he ends up in a traditional market, let alone Edmonton."

Couldn't agree more. I would *love* to have Hamilton on the team, he is a true 1st pairing guy that can play in all situations. But there is zero chance of him coming back to Canada.

 

[joestevens29]

That state tax is killing Canadian teams. I hate to say this, but I dont think its possible to win a cup in Canada. Look at Stamkos when he signed back in TB. Toronto would have offered him more salary but he will make more in TB with a lesser salary because of no state taxes. The weather sure helps as well

Yet Florida in the same state ends up with one of the worse UFA contracts in the past few years.

Bob really only wanted to go to one team and look how well it turned out for the Panthers.

 

[McJadeddog]

Yet Florida in the same state ends up with one of the worse UFA contracts in the past few years.

Bob really only wanted to go to one team and look how well it turned out for the Panthers.

That is besides the point though. If you and I both worked at the same job, doing the same work, with the same education/experience, but you made 20% more than me, that would be a problem from an HR perspective, and I would be within my rights to ask for a pay raise. The employer coming back and saying "well he doesn't even spend that extra 20% on anything good, look at that overpriced X that he bought with that extra money" would be cold comfort indeed, and do nothing to solve the underlying issue. Yes, teams can still have bad and good contracts, the issue is that the initial starting point isn't remotely fair among the teams. Montreal is at a pretty big disadvantage to Edmonton as an example (at least I believe that is the case due to provincial tax differences).

 

[Forgot About Drai]

You state the winning teams but conveniently forgot Toronto, New Jersey and Arizona among the loser teams.

Oilers can buy the analytical data and they have the people to disseminate it.

You are right about that. You have to have the right people to apply it.

But the Oilers arent even doing the bare minimum.

They are officially the LAST team to not have a real analytics department, with Anaheims hire yesterday.

Stone age.

 

[Fourier]

@Fourier
u mentioned about MacKinnon. He has already stated that he will take less in order to win

‘I Have No Regrets’: Nathan MacKinnon On Being Underpaid, The Shifting RFA Market (forbes.com)

Boston
The Perfection line. Best value in the league. the 3 of them make less then 21
Tampa
Kucherov and Stamkos both under 10. Most troublesome contract there is Johnson. They get rid of that one, they are good for 3-5 years
Colorado
Rantanen under 10. MacKinnon is a friendly deal till 2023. A few contracts expire the next few years and 2 this year, Landeskog and Saad. Interesting to see if they follow MacKinnon's lead or test UFA

It seems these players bought into the team first philosophy of winning. Leafs are handicap with those 4 contracts. I will see what Holland does in offseason with cap room to see where we fall

I actually suspect that MacKinnon would take a little less to win. But I dn't think he did in his last deal. He'll get paid for sure. I suspect he may get 10-11M but could hold out for more if he chose to do so.

Timing is huge in all of this. Imagine if MacKinnon's deal was up this year. They would have MacKinnon, Makar, Landeskog, Grubauer ... all to fit in next year. To sign these guys they could require in the neighborhood of 16-17M in new cap space. To manage that Colorado might have to let Saad and Timmins walk, trade Kadri for futures, trade Compher with minimal take back and then buyout EJ.

Sakic has done a very good job of spreading out the obligations. This could be by accident or by good planning.

Boston is an example of why it can work to go long on a core player who is aging. Bergeron signed an 8 year deal at age 29, something many here consider a no go. Such deals cand be disasters, but what they let you do is to significantly reduce the cap hit by tagging on low money years at the end. If that was a 5 year deal with the same money from the first five years that cap hit is about $8.4M rather than $6.875M. Marchand signed at 28 and the structure of his deal cut about $1.5M off his cap hist as well. That's over $3M in savings on just those two guys.

This is why I like going long term on your core players. It's risky but if you don't do that you almost always pay at least full value.

 

[Little Fury]

You state the winning teams but conveniently forgot Toronto, New Jersey and Arizona among the loser teams.

Oilers can buy the analytical data and they have the people to disseminate it.

I think they used to buy black box data from some fly-by-night outfit which led to things like "Kris Russell is one of the best in the league at zone exits". I'd rather they had their own team doing the number crunching instead.

At this point not having a robust analytics department is ceding a competitive advantage to the other 31 teams for no good reason.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

I think they used to buy black box data from some fly-by-night outfit which led to things like "Kris Russell is one of the best in the league at zone exits". I'd rather they had their own team doing the number crunching instead.

At this point not having a robust analytics department is ceding a competitive advantage to the other 31 teams for no good reason.

They still do buy data and IIRC it’s from the same place most NHL teams get their data. Data is data is data. Doesn’t matter where it comes from.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

You are right about that. You have to have the right people to apply it.

But the Oilers arent even doing the bare minimum.

They are officially the LAST team to not have a real analytics department, with Anaheims hire yesterday.

Stone age.

They have people looking at the data. Just because they don’t have the Fancy Official Analytics Title doesn’t mean they don’t use or apply data.

 

[McShogun99]

It still boggles the mind that the NHL hasn't accounted for this in the salary cap. How can you claim to have a fair system when some teams basically have 15-20% more money to use?

The salary cap should be based on the actual take home dollars each player makes. An example would be a 50 million net income salary cap. If a player gets traded he still gets the same net income but his gross income changes to match the city he gets traded to.

 

[belair]

Where I get lost is in the transition from out of season to in season. On Day 1 did Kucherov’s salary have to be counted towards the cap?

My understanding is if a player is on LTIR in the off season the salary does not count against the cap when they transition on Day 1.

So if a teams opening day salary is 81.4, 100k is removed from the LTIR recapture and the rest of the LTIR can be used to exceed the cap.

Correct or no?

I believe that Kucherov's contract was in LTIR day one. I'm not certain where Nilsson and Gaborik's were. This is where my understanding of the LTIR gets blurry.

If Kucherov was part of the initial $81.5m, they'd have an additional ~$10m once he's LTIRed assuming they're close to the ceiling? With him on LTIR, it's already accounted for?

I don't really understand the difference.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

They have people looking at the data. Just because they don’t have the Fancy Official Analytics Title doesn’t mean they don’t use or apply data.

I believe Ken Holland direct quote was that they use "gut analytics"? Haha

I know they have 1 intern who prints out info and gives it to them, but are we really saying thats good enough?

They may be looking at it, but clearly they dont consider a significant part of their analysis nor have they invested in it. Like Little Fury said it is ceding a competitive advantage that we just dont need too. It makes ZERO sense to not have a in-house analytics department when every single team in the league does. Its table stakes man.

Im not saying we need to become the Leafs, but its another tool in the toolbox and needs to be utilized.

 

[Little Fury]

They still do buy data and IIRC it’s from the same place most NHL teams get their data. Data is data is data. Doesn’t matter where it comes from.

Lots of teams generate their own data as well as using publicly available stuff.

But the point is, it's what you do with it and the Oilers have one guy in a janitor's closet doing god knows what.