Roundtable: Maple Leafs Future Looking Bright

[Jimmy Firecracker]

What are you looking for, TO not finishing in the bottom 10?

I'm looking for what your definition of a complete rebuild is. If it's 7 years to win a Cup then yeah I can see that. 7 years just to make the playoffs? That's asinine.

 

[Maplebeasts]

I'm looking for what your definition of a complete rebuild is. If it's 7 years to win a Cup then yeah I can see that. 7 years just to make the playoffs? That's asinine.

7 years to make the playoffs from what we have now would be complete and utter failure. Maybe three years before we make the dance and 5 before we are cup threats.

 

[Ovate]

I think the timeline for the rebuild comes down so much to whether or not we sign Stamkos.

If we get him, then we probably keep Phaneuf, and there aren't many missing pieces of the puzzle after that once the prospects join the show. We could be making the playoffs the year we sign him or the year after, and making deep runs a couple years after that.

If we don't sign Stamkos, then we probably have an extra year of "tearing down", and another year of building up again. Playoffs aren't a possibility for 3-4 years, and and another couple years after that before we're a series contender.

Even in a worse case scenario, I don't see us not being a contender in 7 years, provided we don't **** up a rebuild.

 

[A1LeafNation]

1. Our goal scoring has improved on paper.
2. We have a top tier coach with recent top credentials who implements a great system.
3. Our goaltending should hold up.
4. Our defence on the LD has depth(Rielly, Gardiner, Hunwick, Marincin) and on RD has experience(Phaneuf, Polak, Robidas)
5. We have a bunch of top prospects on the brink of becoming NHL'ers(Brown, Nylander, Percy, Granberg, Kapanen, Leivo, Leipsic)

We finished between 13-16 last season, and played well below expectations. I see no reason why we shouldn't finish between 9-12 this season. We should be aiming for a playoff spot next season.

 

[achtungbaby]

Yeah that's great but most teams have many good players at the NHL level already.

Marner and Nylander look good but there's a lot more to rating the organization as a whole then that. And as good as they look now, there is zero guarantee they will turn into star players.

Agreed. We stumbled into our rebuild. We're going to hype everyone we draft, Luke, let's temper our expectations here.

 

[sda]

You're joking, right?

Edmonton's McDavid, Draisaitl, Reinhard & Nurse blows us away.

Buffalo's Eichel & Reinhart beats us.

Arizona's Strome, Domi and Dauphin likely beat us.

Winnipeg's Ehlers, Connor & Morrisey likely beat us.

Detroit's Larkin, Svechnikov & Mantha likely beat us.

NYI's Barzal, Dal Colle & Pulok likely beat us.

Boston's Subban, Zboril & Pasternak likely beat us.

Nashville's Fiala, Saros & Kamenev likely beat us.

LOTS of teams have elite prospects coming up, and many are just as highly touted, or possibly better than ours. Overall, I think our depth gives us a top-6 or top-7 prospect pool, but to say that Marner and Nylander are "just better" prospects than all the ones I've listed, is silly. We'll find out for sure, in about 5-6 years.

The first 2 ok . The rest not likely. You are vastly underratting the Leafs and over at in other organizations

 

[hobarth]

7 years to make the playoffs from what we have now would be complete and utter failure. Maybe three years before we make the dance and 5 before we are cup threats.

WE saw a BB rush what could have been a rebuild and that took 3 years just to make the playoffs for 1 year, Shany is supposed to be doing it right thru the drafting and development model and that takes time, lots of time if it's done right and thoroughly. Detroit is always cited as the franchise that does it right and maybe they do but the difference is they've had a competitive franchise to start with, no pain there, TO is starting from the beginning. As Detroit declines because the premium players they've had decline, they're going to go thru some pain as well if they're unable to pull more superstars from the lower parts of the draft.

People are hoping TO can lure Stamkos but if TO does that will effectively end a rebuild because having a Stamkos or a Kessel means win now.

Chicago, LA, great teams have had to endure rebuilds before becoming great which is what we want and so well TO if the end result is a perennial Cup competitive team. The will for that goal is present now but 3 or 4 years into a rebuild I doubt Leaf fans, management, owners or press will still have the resolve. Fans are already excited that TO might be able to outscore last year's team, in other words the resolve to endure a rebuild is already weakening and the rebuild hasn't even really started.

 

[ACC1224]

Edmonton has had 4 #1s in the last 9 years and high #1 picks when they don't have the #1s and I think it's still doubtful they make the playoffs. 7 years from where TO is starting would be awesome, a very speedy rebuild, Columbus has been rebuilding since they joined the NHL, Florida has been rebuilding for 20 years and Winterpeg may finally be competitive after what another 20 years. How long did it take Pittsburgh to become a playoff team after drafting Lemieux, 4 years and that with one of the greatest players that's ever lived, their rebuild didn't start with Lemieux. How long did it take the Islanders after drafting Tavares to become a playoff team?

The length of the pain is going to shock Leaf fans, Babs will be long gone, Shany history, Lou well he's 72 now, Dubas will be late 30s or more, be prepared, be very prepared and this will only be worthwhile if the right choices are made, every mistake sets the rebuild back further.

Let's look at Marner, he's probably going back to junior, so I would say he won't be up to speed as an NHL player for maybe 4 more years, Dermot who plays d will probably take even longer, be realistic, it's going to be a long painful process.

I would say that if it were possible for TO to do it faster then would need to be drafting NHL ready players from the draft and TO would need to be choosing a minimum of 3 NHL ready players per year, that's not possible, 7 years is a very conservative estimate especially considering where TO is starting from and the lip service TO is now paying to proper development.

Time will tell but I don't think you're even close in your 7 year guess let alone being conservative. Babcock doesn't agree with you either.

 

[CalgaryLeaf*]

Who says that the Leafs can't make the playoffs during this 5-7 year rebuild?...This year it doesn't look very likely but you never know with a coach like Babcock preaching hard work and systems.

Next year they will likely be in a good position to challenge for a playoff spot...The question is how long before they will be serious cup contenders?...THAT could take 5-6-7 years.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'm looking for what your definition of a complete rebuild is. If it's 7 years to win a Cup then yeah I can see that. 7 years just to make the playoffs? That's asinine.

Somewhere in between I'd say. And there are a number of contenders in any given year - even if the rebuild goes well that doesn't guarantee us a cup winner ever. So I would say less than 7 years to make the playoffs for sure but winning the cup is not something anyone should plan on, the best we can hope for is to be a perennial contender with a realistic shot who hopefully will eventually break through.

JMHO but I've said before we're no better than 50% to win a PO round in the next 5 years. If I had to predict (somewhat optimistically) I'd say we'll miss the playoffs for two more years, then make the playoffs the 3rd season, win a round in the 4-5th season and in 7 years, we'll be a true contender. That's assuming we do it right and don't sacrifice the future along the way. If that's the case, we'll be well placed at that point to contend for many years down the line.

People should also realize there are no guarantees and progress is seldom linear. There are 30 teams in the NHL all trying to do the same thing. Only 16 teams even make the playoffs in any given year. Becoming a contender isn't easy, if it was then every team would be a contender. If it takes 7 years but we get there, I'll be very pleased. This requires patience on the part of the owners to let our team do their thing and it requires a little bit of luck as well. Contenders are built through the draft and regardless of how awesome our guys are at drafting, there are never any guarantees - it's entirely possible that the guys we draft pan out at a below average rate and 5-7 years from now were not much further along then we are right now. I'm not saying it's likely but it is possible.

I see a lot of unfettered optimism here - people saying stuff like "no way it takes us 3 years to make the playoffs" or "no way it takes us 7 years to become a contender". It seems like many take it for granted that now we have the right team in place so success is guaranteed, that the pain of the last 40+ years absolutely is over and the only thing left to argue about is how soon we will get to the promised land. Don't get me wrong, I'm happy with the direction we seem to be headed in but man, just because we're finally going in the right direction doesn't mean we're guaranteed to get there.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

Not sure about Korostelev, he's got Suglobov written all over him sadly.

 

[Joey Hoser]

You're joking, right?

Edmonton's McDavid, Draisaitl, Reinhard & Nurse blows us away.

Buffalo's Eichel & Reinhart beats us.

Arizona's Strome, Domi and Dauphin likely beat us.

Winnipeg's Ehlers, Connor & Morrisey likely beat us.

Detroit's Larkin, Svechnikov & Mantha likely beat us.

NYI's Barzal, Dal Colle & Pulok likely beat us.

Boston's Subban, Zboril & Pasternak likely beat us.

Nashville's Fiala, Saros & Kamenev likely beat us.

LOTS of teams have elite prospects coming up, and many are just as highly touted, or possibly better than ours. Overall, I think our depth gives us a top-6 or top-7 prospect pool, but to say that Marner and Nylander are "just better" prospects than all the ones I've listed, is silly. We'll find out for sure, in about 5-6 years.

I'll give you the first two(as I already have), but the rest are stretches at best. No joke at all.

Nashville's Fiala, Saros & Kamenev likely beat us.

That's likely better than Marner, Nylander and Kapanen? Absurd. Are you joking?

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Edmonton has had 4 #1s in the last 9 years and high #1 picks when they don't have the #1s and I think it's still doubtful they make the playoffs. 7 years from where TO is starting would be awesome, a very speedy rebuild, Columbus has been rebuilding since they joined the NHL, Florida has been rebuilding for 20 years and Winterpeg may finally be competitive after what another 20 years. How long did it take Pittsburgh to become a playoff team after drafting Lemieux, 4 years and that with one of the greatest players that's ever lived, their rebuild didn't start with Lemieux. How long did it take the Islanders after drafting Tavares to become a playoff team?

The length of the pain is going to shock Leaf fans, Babs will be long gone, Shany history, Lou well he's 72 now, Dubas will be late 30s or more, be prepared, be very prepared and this will only be worthwhile if the right choices are made, every mistake sets the rebuild back further.

Let's look at Marner, he's probably going back to junior, so I would say he won't be up to speed as an NHL player for maybe 4 more years, Dermot who plays d will probably take even longer, be realistic, it's going to be a long painful process.

I would say that if it were possible for TO to do it faster then would need to be drafting NHL ready players from the draft and TO would need to be choosing a minimum of 3 NHL ready players per year, that's not possible, 7 years is a very conservative estimate especially considering where TO is starting from and the lip service TO is now paying to proper development.

We aren't starting from ground zero anymore like we were after say Sundin left though. We've drafted Rielly, Nylander, Marner in 3 of the last 4 drafts. We've also added a boatload of extra picks and prospects. We'll be adding even more at the deadline which is exactly what the Leafs should be doing. Add as many picks/prospects and increase the odds of hitting a homerun.

How quick or how slow this rebuild takes largely comes down to Rielly, Nylander, Marner, top pick this next draft and if we hit an unexpected homerun or two.

Toronto also a financial advantage that other teams like Panthers, Islanders haven't had to accumulate extra assets. Toronto is also a desirable place to play for some NHLers well a place like Edmonton nobody wanted to play there.

All 4 of those # 1 picks by Edmonton came in the last 6 years. Prior to 10 draft they failed to have any core pieces (except Eberle). They missed on guys like MPS, Gagner, Plante, Nash, etc. so it just added on more years.

NHL is radically different than when a guy like Lemieux was drafted. I won't even go into that one.

Personally I believe we're likely closer to 5 years but like I said it really comes down to how Rielly, Nylander, Marner, if a guy Dermott/Brown/Kapanen become an unexpected homerun and who we get at this next draft.

Under the idea that it'll be 5 years I believe JVR, Bernier, Gardiner, Kadri (in order of expend-ability) are all somewhat expendable if it means bringing in truly elite talent. All good players but none of whom I'd consider top 3, 4 or likely even 5 pieces on a championship team but they have enough value to help potentially bring those pieces in.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Somewhere in between I'd say. And there are a number of contenders in any given year - even if the rebuild goes well that doesn't guarantee us a cup winner ever. So I would say less than 7 years to make the playoffs for sure but winning the cup is not something anyone should plan on, the best we can hope for is to be a perennial contender with a realistic shot who hopefully will eventually break through.

JMHO but I've said before we're no better than 50% to win a PO round in the next 5 years. If I had to predict (somewhat optimistically) I'd say we'll miss the playoffs for two more years, then make the playoffs the 3rd season, win a round in the 4-5th season and in 7 years, we'll be a true contender. That's assuming we do it right and don't sacrifice the future along the way. If that's the case, we'll be well placed at that point to contend for many years down the line.

People should also realize there are no guarantees and progress is seldom linear. There are 30 teams in the NHL all trying to do the same thing. Only 16 teams even make the playoffs in any given year. Becoming a contender isn't easy, if it was then every team would be a contender. If it takes 7 years but we get there, I'll be very pleased. This requires patience on the part of the owners to let our team do their thing and it requires a little bit of luck as well. Contenders are built through the draft and regardless of how awesome our guys are at drafting, there are never any guarantees - it's entirely possible that the guys we draft pan out at a below average rate and 5-7 years from now were not much further along then we are right now. I'm not saying it's likely but it is possible.

I see a lot of unfettered optimism here - people saying stuff like "no way it takes us 3 years to make the playoffs" or "no way it takes us 7 years to become a contender". It seems like many take it for granted that now we have the right team in place so success is guaranteed, that the pain of the last 40+ years absolutely is over and the only thing left to argue about is how soon we will get to the promised land. Don't get me wrong, I'm happy with the direction we seem to be headed in but man, just because we're finally going in the right direction doesn't mean we're guaranteed to get there.

You're right in that I shouldn't say that we will win a Cup in 7 years. Nobody knows. It's likely later, or maybe by some miracle, sooner.

My definition of a complete rebuild is that the Leafs are a team that people look at and think "The Leafs could go on a deep run this year" while still maintaining a top 15 prospect pool. I think if that's how we're going to judge the rebuild then 7 years is about right. 7 years for the likes of Marner, Nylander, Rielly, etc. to establish themselves as a core, and 7 years of continuous drafting and developmental success.

As far as playoffs are concerned? I think anywhere from 3-5 years (2017-2018 to 2020-2021) is a reasonable estimate. I don't know about winning a playoff round as it all depends on the matchup. We could make the playoffs but face a true contender like what happended with Winnipeg vs Anaheim this year, or it could be like Calgary where we face a team that's on the down swing.

 

[Gabriel426]

I think the rebuild will depend on how the kids develop. Pretty foolish to expect all the kids to have great impacts right away when they play in the NHL. Players just develop differently.

If they arrive early, maybe the Leafs will win earlier than expected. Don't think I will complain about that.

As for guys like Stamkos, if the price is right, don't think anyone San say no to his talents.

 

[fahad203]

Not sure about Korostelev, he's got Suglobov written all over him sadly.

Not even close bro. Koros is a young up and comer who played his game in NA and every season he has progressed. He'll need few more years of seasoning and bulk up a bit.

Suglabov was actually a very good skater and with the right tools, he just never put it together.

There are no similiarities other than they are both Russians.

 

[hobarth]

If we look at recent Stanley Cup winners and see that their cores are made up of quality players generally 25 to 35 years old, other than maybe Rielly I don't think TO has what I would consider to be quality players who would constitute a core.

Chicago has Kane, Hossa, Toews at forward plus Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson on d with Crawford in goal. That's a lot of quality core players and this takes years to acquire and develop plus the amount of luck in drafting these players and them turning out to be Cup winning core players.

Babs might be able to get TO into the playoffs before TO is ready to assemble a Cup contender but making the playoffs isn't the goal of TO's rebuild, making the playoffs might even slow down a rebuild because of draft consequences. Trading the few accomplished players TO has had for meagre returns will definitely slow down a rebuild.

Right now no one can point directly at any one player on TO and say that player is the leader, the superstar that cup contenders need to be winners like Keith and Toews or Kopitar and Doughty on LA. TO is years away from being a contender, a cup contender, but TO can be made into a scrape into the playoffs, limbo type of team we've had in the past, in order for TO to make the rebuild worthwhile and fast TO and it's fans need to endure 7 or more years of pain and even then luck has to play a huge role.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

If we look at recent Stanley Cup winners and see that their cores are made up of quality players generally 25 to 35 years old, other than maybe Rielly I don't think TO has what I would consider to be quality players who would constitute a core.

Chicago has Kane, Hossa, Toews at forward plus Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson on d with Crawford in goal. That's a lot of quality core players and this takes years to acquire and develop plus the amount of luck in drafting these players and them turning out to be Cup winning core players.

Babs might be able to get TO into the playoffs before TO is ready to assemble a Cup contender but making the playoffs isn't the goal of TO's rebuild, making the playoffs might even slow down a rebuild because of draft consequences. Trading the few accomplished players TO has had for meagre returns will definitely slow down a rebuild.

Right now no one can point directly at any one player on TO and say that player is the leader, the superstar that cup contenders need to be winners like Keith and Toews or Kopitar and Doughty on LA. TO is years away from being a contender, a cup contender, but TO can be made into a scrape into the playoffs, limbo type of team we've had in the past, in order for TO to make the rebuild worthwhile and fast TO and it's fans need to endure 7 or more years of pain and even then luck has to play a huge role.

Elite youngsters providing great value (and in a lot if not most cases still being under 25) has as much to do with recent cup wins. Look when E. Staal, Ward, Doughty, Kane, Toews, Crosby, Malkin, Letang, Staal, Getzlaf, Perry, Voynov won those cups. The 25-35 crew or at least 27+ was generally brought in from elsewhere like Hossa, Campbell, Sharp, Gonchar, Williams, Carter, Richards, Gaborik, Prongers, Nieds, Chara, Seidenberg, Horton.

Over the next 2 or 3 years we just need to focus on creating cap space by shedding guys like Lupul, Bozak, Robidas and also gaining as many picks/prospects as possible.

For the most part we don't know how long this rebuild will take but 7 years is a very very long time to rebuild a franchise that already has a lot of quality assets like we do.

We aren't starting from scratch. Rielly should at a very minimum develop into a # 2 Dman. To a certain extent it's too early to know what we have in Nylander + Marner but it looks very promising. Add in a top pick this upcoming draft and possibly the one after and things could start changing really quickly. If we hit a homerun or two in the next draft then we're looking at a shorter rebuild and if we don't then we're looking at a longer rebuild.

Things looked just as bleak if not more for other franchises who had to rebuild like the Ducks who 4 years after drafting Getzlaf + Perry won their 1st cup, LA who 4 years after drafting Doughty + Voynov won their 1st cup, Chicago who 4 years after drafting Toews won their 1st cup (3 after Kane).

 

[Gary Nylund]

Elite youngsters providing great value (and in a lot if not most cases still being under 25) has as much to do with recent cup wins. Look when E. Staal, Ward, Doughty, Kane, Toews, Crosby, Malkin, Letang, Staal, Getzlaf, Perry, Voynov won those cups. The 25-35 crew or at least 27+ was generally brought in from elsewhere like Hossa, Campbell, Sharp, Gonchar, Williams, Carter, Richards, Gaborik, Prongers, Nieds, Chara, Seidenberg, Horton.

Over the next 2 or 3 years we just need to focus on creating cap space by shedding guys like Lupul, Bozak, Robidas and also gaining as many picks/prospects as possible.

For the most part we don't know how long this rebuild will take but 7 years is a very very long time to rebuild a franchise that already has a lot of quality assets like we do.

We aren't starting from scratch. Rielly should at a very minimum develop into a # 2 Dman. To a certain extent it's too early to know what we have in Nylander + Marner but it looks very promising. Add in a top pick this upcoming draft and possibly the one after and things could start changing really quickly. If we hit a homerun or two in the next draft then we're looking at a shorter rebuild and if we don't then we're looking at a longer rebuild.

Things looked just as bleak if not more for other franchises who had to rebuild like the Ducks who 4 years after drafting Getzlaf + Perry won their 1st cup, LA who 4 years after drafting Doughty + Voynov won their 1st cup, Chicago who 4 years after drafting Toews won their 1st cup (3 after Kane).

The Chicago and LA example are fine but ... I don't think you need a list of teams that also looked bleak, started a rebuild and are nowhere now. There is no guarantee we end up like Chicago and LA, none whatsoever. Sure we have financial resources but that's no guarantee, anyone following this team for any length of time should know this for a fact.

Rielly should develop into a #2 at minimum ... should, OK maybe but what if he doesn't? Nylander and Marner do indeed look promising but you're right, it's too early to know how they will pan out. Most likely top 6 players at worst but what if that's all they are? What are the odds that they both end up as top line players AND Rielly becomes a legit top pairing guy?

You talk about hitting a homerun (or two) in the next next draft - yes that would speed up a rebuild but the odds are against this wouldn't you agree? And even if we do hit those homeruns, it's likely these homeruns take 5 years to develop into impact players, first a few years in junior hockey or the AHL, then time to develop in the NHL

A top pick in the next draft and possibly the one after - great, that's what I'm hoping for. But this team could easily be better than last years team (the bar's not set very high) and then maybe the lottery bumps us back a few spots. Bottom line, we could be picking top 3 next draft but we could just as easily be picking 9-11th.

This definition of a complete rebuild was offered earlier and I think it's a good one:

"My definition of a complete rebuild is that the Leafs are a team that people look at and think "The Leafs could go on a deep run this year" while still maintaining a top 15 prospect pool."

Getting to this point in 5 years need a ton of things to go just right. If this, and that, and this, and that and then finally the other thing ...

7 years sounds about right to me. And even that requires more things to go right then wrong, it could take easily take longer than that. In fact, it's not out of the question that the owners get impatient and fires Shanahan 3 years from now and bring in a new guy with a draft-schmaft philosophy and 10 years from now we're back to where we are now.

 

[Johny Drama]

This year is a transition year, IMO. I imagine youngsters will be given time to develop in juniors and the AHL, while the hope is that Babcock works some magic on the NHL squad increasing player value for trades, but also giving some insight into what players may have a long term future with the club. (Kadri, Bernier, JVR, Gardiner etc). Another good draft year in 2016 and a lot less players brought in next summer to allow opportunities for internal promotion. I don't see any rookies making it this year, but I can see 3 or 4 making the jump next year.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

The Chicago and LA example are fine but ... I don't think you need a list of teams that also looked bleak, started a rebuild and are nowhere now. There is no guarantee we end up like Chicago and LA, none whatsoever. Sure we have financial resources but that's no guarantee, anyone following this team for any length of time should know this for a fact.

Rielly should develop into a #2 at minimum ... should, OK maybe but what if he doesn't? Nylander and Marner do indeed look promising but you're right, it's too early to know how they will pan out. Most likely top 6 players at worst but what if that's all they are? What are the odds that they both end up as top line players AND Rielly becomes a legit top pairing guy?

You talk about hitting a homerun (or two) in the next next draft - yes that would speed up a rebuild but the odds are against this wouldn't you agree? And even if we do hit those homeruns, it's likely these homeruns take 5 years to develop into impact players, first a few years in junior hockey or the AHL, then time to develop in the NHL

A top pick in the next draft and possibly the one after - great, that's what I'm hoping for. But this team could easily be better than last years team (the bar's not set very high) and then maybe the lottery bumps us back a few spots. Bottom line, we could be picking top 3 next draft but we could just as easily be picking 9-11th.

This definition of a complete rebuild was offered earlier and I think it's a good one:

"My definition of a complete rebuild is that the Leafs are a team that people look at and think "The Leafs could go on a deep run this year" while still maintaining a top 15 prospect pool."

Getting to this point in 5 years need a ton of things to go just right. If this, and that, and this, and that and then finally the other thing ...

7 years sounds about right to me. And even that requires more things to go right then wrong, it could take easily take longer than that. In fact, it's not out of the question that the owners get impatient and fires Shanahan 3 years from now and bring in a new guy with a draft-schmaft philosophy and 10 years from now we're back to where we are now.

Financial resources is definitely an advantage to help expedite a rebuild that a lot of teams haven't had. Leafs have just lacked direction to fully take advantage of it. This team absolutely crapping the bed last year removed any doubt that the team needs to go through some pain for a few years. Everything Shanny + other management has said like Babcock saying things like there will be pain ahead indicates they are onboard and they won't be going for a quick fix over the next few years.

Like I said if we hit a few homeruns (or maybe we just have to wait on the ones we might already have in Rielly, Nylander, Marner + a few outside candidates like Brown, Kapanen, Dermott, Bracco) then it'll be a shorter rebuild closer to 4 or 5 years and if we don't then yes we could be looking at a longer rebuild. We are accumulating lots of candidates to become young impactful players to increase our chances.

The very top picks also isn't necessarily always the best player when the draft is viewed even a few years later. For example I'd without a doubt take Rielly (5th), Lindholm (6th), Trouba (9th), Forsberg (11th) over Yakupov (1st), Murray (2nd) or Reinhart (4th).

A lot if not the majority of guys who become high impact players make the jump to making a big impact in under 5 years. If they don't do it by year 5 good chance they never fulfill their potential. For example Kadri had a breakout year 3 years post draft, Kessel it took 3 years post draft to net 36 goals, Phaneuf 3 years post draft. All the guys I mentioned in mentioned in my other post had broke out in well under 5 years.

We also still have valuable young vets like Gardiner, Kadri, JVR, Bernier we can choose to deal.

In a few years we'll be adding we're due for a lot of extra cap flexibility. In 3 years Gleason buyout comes off the books, 3 overpaid players comes off the books in Komarov, Bozak, Lupul (who we probably trade out at some point for extra assets) + Dion will be getting into the last 3 years of his deal which pay him less in real dollars than actual cap hit making him an easier piece to move.

It's very bleak right now but we are further along than where any of the Hurricanes, Ducks, Hawks, Kings, Bruins were 7 years prior to winning their cup (or first cup anyways). I'd rather view the glass as half full.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Financial resources is definitely an advantage to help expedite a rebuild that a lot of teams haven't had. Leafs have just lacked direction to fully take advantage of it. This team absolutely crapping the bed last year removed any doubt that the team needs to go through some pain for a few years. Everything Shanny + other management has said like Babcock saying things like there will be pain ahead indicates they are onboard and they won't be going for a quick fix over the next few years.

Like I said if we hit a few homeruns (or maybe we just have to wait on the ones we might already have in Rielly, Nylander, Marner + a few outside candidates like Brown, Kapanen, Dermott, Bracco) then it'll be a shorter rebuild closer to 4 or 5 years and if we don't then yes we could be looking at a longer rebuild. We are accumulating lots of candidates to become young impactful players to increase our chances.

The very top picks also isn't necessarily always the best player when the draft is viewed even a few years later. For example I'd without a doubt take Rielly (5th), Lindholm (6th), Trouba (9th), Forsberg (11th) over Yakupov (1st), Murray (2nd) or Reinhart (4th).

A lot if not the majority of guys who become high impact players make the jump to making a big impact in under 5 years. If they don't do it by year 5 good chance they never fulfill their potential. For example Kadri had a breakout year 3 years post draft, Kessel it took 3 years post draft to net 36 goals, Phaneuf 3 years post draft. All the guys I mentioned in mentioned in my other post had broke out in well under 5 years.

We also still have valuable young vets like Gardiner, Kadri, JVR, Bernier we can choose to deal.

In a few years we'll be adding we're due for a lot of extra cap flexibility. In 3 years Gleason buyout comes off the books, 3 overpaid players comes off the books in Komarov, Bozak, Lupul (who we probably trade out at some point for extra assets) + Dion will be getting into the last 3 years of his deal which pay him less in real dollars than actual cap hit making him an easier piece to move.

It's very bleak right now but we are further along than where any of the Hurricanes, Ducks, Hawks, Kings, Bruins were 7 years prior to winning their cup (or first cup anyways). I'd rather view the glass as half full.

I agree it could be 4-5 years but that's if a ton of things fall into place just right (like hitting a few home runs in the later draft rounds etc.). Some people are saying stuff like "no way it takes 7 years" whereas I think 7 years is actually a very reasonable estimate assuming our team is allowed to do their thing without being rushed and also assuming that they're as good as we think they are. Like I said, there's always the possibility that 10 years from now were back to where started if the ownership gets impatient.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Chicago who 4 years after drafting Toews won their 1st cup (3 after Kane).

2002 Duncan Keith
2003 Brent Seabrook, Corey Crawford, Byfuglien
2005 Hjalmarsson

 

[AndrewGForbesTHW]

2002 Duncan Keith
2003 Brent Seabrook, Corey Crawford, Byfuglien
2005 Hjalmarsson

Building from the draft is definitely key to getting back to being a contender in my opinion.

 

[highslot]

We aren't starting from ground zero anymore like we were after say Sundin left though. We've drafted Rielly, Nylander, Marner in 3 of the last 4 drafts. We've also added a boatload of extra picks and prospects. We'll be adding even more at the deadline which is exactly what the Leafs should be doing. Add as many picks/prospects and increase the odds of hitting a homerun.

How quick or how slow this rebuild takes largely comes down to Rielly, Nylander, Marner, top pick this next draft and if we hit an unexpected homerun or two.

Toronto also a financial advantage that other teams like Panthers, Islanders haven't had to accumulate extra assets. Toronto is also a desirable place to play for some NHLers well a place like Edmonton nobody wanted to play there.

All 4 of those # 1 picks by Edmonton came in the last 6 years. Prior to 10 draft they failed to have any core pieces (except Eberle). They missed on guys like MPS, Gagner, Plante, Nash, etc. so it just added on more years.

NHL is radically different than when a guy like Lemieux was drafted. I won't even go into that one.

Personally I believe we're likely closer to 5 years but like I said it really comes down to how Rielly, Nylander, Marner, if a guy Dermott/Brown/Kapanen become an unexpected homerun and who we get at this next draft.

Under the idea that it'll be 5 years I believe JVR, Bernier, Gardiner, Kadri (in order of expend-ability) are all somewhat expendable if it means bringing in truly elite talent. All good players but none of whom I'd consider top 3, 4 or likely even 5 pieces on a championship team but they have enough value to help potentially bring those pieces in.

I agree. We already have rielly and a goalie in bernier.

also, we have jvr.

if you are looking at if we have a core or star, we do.

so if our core is: rielly, bernier, nylander, marner (chicago has kane, toews, keith, seabrook really)

pitts has crosby, malkin, letang

detroit had zetterberg, datsyuk and lidstrom

so you can see that you seem to need 2 centres and 2 d. if the 2 centres are outstanding, then you need only 1d (lidstrom, letang).

we really only need to build around our star pieces.

for support in the next few years, we have kom, gardiner, kadri, holland, free agents, winnik, etc.

so veterans and the best coach are in place.

the gamble is if bracco, kapanen, dzierkals, gauthier, timashov, johnson, brown, toninato vesey, joshua, piccinich, camenasari, engvall can break the top 6. my guess is at least 1 will, but i'd be surprised if 3 don't.

my bet are bracco and kap hit top 6.

for d, we have dermott, valiev, loov, percy, lindgren who might be top pairing with rielly. i'm less sure than any of them are d2 material but the have potential. i think dermott and percy could be stralman level but less physical.