Prospect Info: Round 6, Pick 165: Hunter McDonald, LHD, Chicago (USHL) -> Northeastern

[GKJ]

Click to read more...

 

[JojoTheWhale]

“You’re not going to field 6 Makars,” is the number right before they hit rock bottom in the second act of the Flyers musical.

 

[mr figgles]

Every cup winner has guys like this. Cernak, Hjalmarsson, McNabb… You need guys that won‘t hurt the team on a regular shift, or break the bank

 

[macleish1974]

“You’re not going to field 6 Makars,” is the number right before they hit rock bottom in the second act of the Flyers musical.

Allways loved Betty Hutton

 

[DancingPanther]

He cannot be good or even average. No NHLer has ever been drafted late and succeeded as a pro. 80-90% of the board here say he's nothing, so I guess that's that. Close the thread. We're done here.

Exactly

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Every cup winner has guys like this. Cernak, Hjalmarsson, McNabb… You need guys that won‘t hurt the team on a regular shift, or break the bank

You need guys like Hjarmalsson, who were All World defensive Defensemen. True. He was also paid the equivalent of 5+ in today’s AAV for two of Chicago’s Cups. Hell, that was an underpayment because the league as a whole hadn’t caught on yet. While we’re at it, Chicago let that guy sign an offer sheet right after their first Cup.

But mostly what kills me is the idea that Brayden McNabb was integral to a Cup win. Have you ever been in a traditionalist industry where things are done a certain way because that’s how they’ve always been done? Same argument. McNabb is fine. You can plug in any number of other guys who were also fine and not much will change. Some will be the same archetype and some won’t. Which is the point.

 

[FLYguy3911]

And for every one of those guys there are dozens that flopped who were projected to fill that role.

McNabb was a huge scorer in Junior btw.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

McNabb was a huge scorer in Junior btw.

Once you look into how many pre-NHL low scoring guys actually make it, your worldview changes.

I can't imagine the organizational arrogance it takes to think you're the one who can identify the next Lucic correctly.

 

[Appleyard]

Once you look into how many pre-NHL low scoring guys actually make it, your worldview changes.

I can't imagine the organizational arrogance it takes to think you're the one who can identify the next Lucic correctly.

Yeh, the odds are infantisemal.

If you draft a CHL forward (example used as I have the stats AND place most guys drafted from) who is putting up less than 0.9 P/GP in their draft year?

It is a ~1% chance they become a "legit" top 6 NHLer.

Wayne Simmonds
Milan Lucic
James Neal
Mark Stone
Jordan Kyrou
Brandon Hagel

is pretty much the entire list of guys drafted between 2005 and 2018 (after that some guys still developing etc) who became top 6 forwards. 6 out of ~500. And not including all the guys NOT drafted who produced below that rate!

 

[BritainStix]

Yeh, the odds are infantisemal.

If you draft a CHL forward (example used as I have the stats AND place most guys drafted from) who is putting up less than 0.9 P/GP in their draft year?

It is a ~1% chance they become a "legit" top 6 NHLer.

Wayne Simmonds
Milan Lucic
James Neal
Mark Stone
Jordan Kyrou
Brandon Hagel

is pretty much the entire list of guys drafted between 2005 and 2018 (after that some guys still developing etc) who became top 6 forwards. 6 out of ~500. And not including all the guys NOT drafted who produced below that rate!

What are your thoughts on Mcdonald? Not enough offensive output to be a good enough puck mover at the NHL level?

 

[deadhead]

When you get past #100, historically the odds get low to find a NHL player period.
10% for 200 games, 6.7% for 400 games, 4% for 700 games, 2% for Allstar.
So about 15:1 to find a guy who's a starter (and probably bottom six/bottom four).

And I suspect those odds are lower these days as scouting has improved (video world wide so no prospect goes unnoticed).

If McDonald turns out to be a solid 3rd pair D-man, that's a "triple" where he was picked.
Same with Sotheran.

 

[Appleyard]

What are your thoughts on Mcdonald? Not enough offensive output to be a good enough puck mover at the NHL level?

The odds of him being anything more than an AHL 2nd pairing guy who plays ~30 NHL games as a kind of forced "fill-in" because he has a reputation as good on D and is big... I think are low.

Almost 22 years old and just a "solid" NCAA Dman.

He is big and skates well... but he is really awkward with puck at times even in NCAA.

When you get past #100, historically the odds get low to find a NHL player period.
10% for 200 games, 6.7% for 400 games, 4% for 700 games, 2% for Allstar.
So about 15:1 to find a guy who's a starter (and probably bottom six/bottom four).

And I suspect those odds are lower these days as scouting has improved (video world wide so no prospect goes unnoticed).

If McDonald turns out to be a solid 3rd pair D-man, that's a "triple" where he was picked.
Same with Sotheran.

But a really good way to increase your odds is draft guys who actually produce against their peers...

undersized guys who produce at top ~50 pick level but fall
poor skaters who produce at top ~50 pick level but fall
guys buried on good teams whose numbers are suppressed
overagers who bloomed late and were fantastic at ~19-20

account for 90% of all draft steals

 

[deadhead]

But a really good way to increase your odds is draft guys who actually produce against their peers...

undersized guys who produce at top ~50 pick level but fall - Barkey
poor skaters who produce at top ~50 pick level but fall - Knuble
guys buried on good teams whose numbers are suppressed - Avon
overagers who bloomed late and were fantastic at ~19-20 - Attard

account for 90% of all draft steals

Even then, the odds are still stacked against you.

Which is why it's good to pick up extra picks later in the draft, but fans often overvalue those picks, if you can add an actual player it's often better than a marginal prospect who might contribute in five years if he beats the odds.

 

[Appleyard]

Even then, the odds are still stacked against you.

Which is why it's good to pick up extra picks later in the draft, but fans often overvalue those picks, if you can add an actual player it's often better than a marginal prospect who might contribute in five years if he beats the odds.

Yeh, but a ~10% chance is a lot better than a ~1% chance.

And over ~10 years those numbers add up, especially when quite frankly ~4th-7th round picks are not far off being the same anyway in terms of chance of getting actual NHL impact guys.

 

[wankstifier]

Feels like another headstone to add to the USHL to NCAA draft reentry graveyard: Kalynuk 2020, St. Ivany 2022, Attard 2024, McDonald 2026.

 

[mr figgles]

You need guys like Hjarmalsson, who were All World defensive Defensemen. True. He was also paid the equivalent of 5+ in today’s AAV for two of Chicago’s Cups. Hell, that was an underpayment because the league as a whole hadn’t caught on yet. While we’re at it, Chicago let that guy sign an offer sheet right after their first Cup.

But mostly what kills me is the idea that Brayden McNabb was integral to a Cup win. Have you ever been in a traditionalist industry where things are done a certain way because that’s how they’ve always been done? Same argument. McNabb is fine. You can plug in any number of other guys who were also fine and not much will change. Some will be the same archetype and some won’t. Which is the point.

Mcnabb was the #4 dman on a cup winner making peanuts. That’s pretty integral to paying studs like Pietrangelo.

 

[Larry44]

Feels like another headstone to add to the USHL to NCAA draft reentry graveyard: Kalynuk 2020, St. Ivany 2022, Attard 2024, McDonald 2026.

We'll see about Attard, he might get a call up later after the TDL...

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Mcnabb was the #4 dman on a cup winner making peanuts. That’s pretty integral to paying studs like Pietrangelo.

That’s not the relevant bit to team building. It's a question of replaceability.

You can get solid #4 types for roughly 3 AAV every single year. It’s good that they have one that they like at that price point. But the difference between them just isn't that big.

 

[Chuck Downie]

Did he sign an ELC? Anyone with a reliable source?

 

[FromOyVey2Matvei]

Did he sign an ELC? Anyone with a reliable source?

Just DiMarco for now.

He also corrected himself, it’s not an ELC. Just a tryout that will allow him to play for the Phantoms for the rest of this season.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Well you can't play on an ATO and still keep your college eligibility so he'll be signing an ELC (probably that starts next season). Dimarco is a dumbass.

 

[FromOyVey2Matvei]

Well you can't play on an ATO and still keep your college eligibility so he'll be signing an ELC (probably that starts next season). Dimarco is a dumbass.

Why are you calling him a dumbass for this?

McDonald might very well sign his ELC next year if he looks fairly decent during his ATO, but there are instances of teams deciding after an ATO that a player isn’t ELC worthy.

He’s just reporting the facts. McDonald is heading for Lehigh Valley and he’ll be playing on an ATO, not burning an ELC year to play now.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Why are you calling him a dumbass for this?

McDonald might very well sign his ELC next year if he looks fairly decent during his ATO, but there are instances of teams deciding after an ATO that a player isn’t ELC worthy.

He’s just reporting the facts. McDonald is heading for Lehigh Valley and he’ll be playing on an ATO, not burning an ELC year to play now.

There are plenty of examples of him proving to be a dumbass but if you want to simp for him go ahead.

A sophomore in college is not leaving school in March to play on an ATO and forfeit his college eligibility without the guarantee of an NHL contract on the horizon. If he's truly in Lehigh Valley already, he will be signing an ELC that likely starts next season and he will finish the year out in the AHL on a try out contract. Discussing the technicalities of an ATO are meaningless in this situation. By all accounts they love the player and see him as a big part of the future. There is a zero percent chance they are letting him walk after the agreement is up.

Btw he can walk in free agnecy this summer so the team has incentive to sign him asap.

 

[FromOyVey2Matvei]

There are plenty of examples of him proving to be a dumbass but if you want to simp for him go ahead.

A sophomore in college is not leaving school in March to play on an ATO and forfeit his college eligibility without the guarantee of an NHL contract on the horizon. If he's truly in Lehigh Valley already, he will be signing an ELC that likely starts next season and he will finish the year out in the AHL on a try out contract. Discussing the technicalities of an ATO are meaningless in this situation. By all accounts they love the player and see him as a big part of the future. There is a zero percent chance they are letting him walk after the agreement is up.

Btw he can walk in free agnecy this summer so the team has incentive to sign him asap.

I agree with everything you’re saying. He has absolutely proven himself to be a fool in other instances.

But I don’t think he deserves any disrespect for this story. Bad reporters can still do good work occasionally. DiMarco did nothing wrong here. He was actually the first (only) flyers beat to get the McDonald story last night.

I agree it’s extremely likely Hunter signs his ELC and it begins next year. But that’s not what’s happening right now. Reporting it that way would be wrong. Right now he’s just on an ATO and only eligible to play with the Phantoms unless an emergency arises with the big club (a player on an ELC would be free to be called up).

 

[VladDrag]

Wouldn't it be funny if they signed him to an ELC for this year to burn a year -- and actually played him a few games in the NHL.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I agree with everything you’re saying. He has absolutely proven himself to be a fool in other instances.

But I don’t think he deserves any disrespect for this story. Bad reporters can still do good work occasionally. DiMarco did nothing wrong here. He was actually the first (only) flyers beat to get the McDonald story last night.

I agree it’s extremely likely Hunter signs his ELC and it begins next year. But that’s not what’s happening right now. Reporting it that way would be wrong. Right now he’s just on an ATO and only eligible to play with the Phantoms unless an emergency arises with the big club (a player on an ELC would be free to be called up).

He can sign an ELC that doesn't kick in until next year and still finish out the year with the Phantoms. Happens all the time. Ghost is the obvious one that comes to mind.

If the team announces he is signing a contract, it will be an ELC. I can almost promise you that. He's not forfeiting two years of college and risking injury without an ELC in hand.

Wouldn't it be funny if they signed him to an ELC for this year to burn a year -- and actually played him a few games in the NHL.

Honestly surprised they didn't. Especially with the injuries. Maybe if he hit double digit points they would have.