Round 2, Vote 3 (HOH Top Wingers)

[sr edler]

Most Valuable Player in 2014.

Eh, he was really selected as the most valuable player in the 2014 Olympics? That's kind of odd playing for a team that didn't even reach the gold medal game... I'm not saying he didn't have a good tournament, he obviously had a good tournament, but come on now. If he scored those two goals he did in the bronze medal game against an American team that didn't even show up and obviously didn't care that much about the bronze in the semi final against Sweden instead, yeah he could perhaps have had an argument... Against Canada & Sweden he had 0 points

 

[Hardyvan123]

Selanne doesn't look like a Top 4 threat this round and 'hockey people' prefer Dickie Moore over Geoffrion right?

Actually Selanne does look like a solid top 4 guy this round given the excellent post on his playoffs by quoipourquoi.

the facts of the matter are that Selanne has a very solid 5th in the VsX in this round and probably should be in the mix with the top 4 given most of his prime years are in a fully integrated 30 team league with some years a non Canadian being in the #1 or #2 spot.

I for the life of me can't understand why when the VsX tables are posted that we have notes on WW2 guys and guys with partial time in the NHL and not for the fully integrated guys as it is trying to make it look like a fair and complete comp but in reality it leaves out a very important caveat for guys post 1990ish.

That being said it is very important to treat Selanne fairly and not go too much with "our feelings". the facts and actual scoring records are far more subjective and it seems guys like Jagr, AO and now Selanne are going to get the "we we don't feel they were as good as their stats" treatment, yet guys we didn't see play seem to get the collective benefit of the doubt.

selanne has an excellent shot at the top 4 for me this round, given 3 facotrs

1) His excellent VsX, which should get a slight boost when compared equally among his competitors this round in an all Canadian way.

2) His elite international resume as being the star on a non elite team and perfroming like an elite player, along with a really good playoff resume , as pointed out by quoipourquoi

3) His excellent longevity and elite to excellent performance over such a long period of time, it might not matter as much to absolute peak guys but staying power does and should matter in this project.

AO and Lindsay are in my top 4 not sure on the 4th guy but leaning towards VK right now.

 

[unknown33]

the facts of the matter are that Selanne has a very solid 5th in the VsX in this round and probably should be in the mix with the top 4 given most of his prime years are in a fully integrated 30 team league with some years a non Canadian being in the #1 or #2 spot.

Making a pro Selanne case based on VsX is pretty bizarre when he's 5th out of 7 and significantly behind the Top 4.
I'll doubt he catches any of Conacher/Ovechkin even if you remove all Europeans.

1) His excellent VsX, which should get a slight boost when compared equally among his competitors this round in an all Canadian way.

^^^^

2) along with a really good playoff resume , as pointed out by quoipourquoi

Trying to say something positive about Selanne's playoffs doesn't mean he was 'really good', especially comapred to the competition he faces.

3) His excellent longevity and elite to excellent performance over such a long period of time, it might not matter as much to absolute peak guys but staying power does and should matter in this project.

I think that an illusion based on his late resurgence and quite big gap doing nothing noteworthy.
The only player who falls short in terms of longevity or number of elite seasons is Conacher, all others have about 7 or more.


All the points you've made about were Selanne supposedly is excellent (except International play) he's actually average/below average in this group of players.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Andy Bathgate

It would be interesting in seeing a Bathgate vs. Geoffrion comparison. Bathgate seems to be the more prolific scorer during the regular season which is impressive considering his team situation compared to Geoffrion. But does Geoffrion's PO resume override this?

Prolific only when supported by Doug Harvey(1961-62 and 1962-63) and career year from Bill Gadsby(1958-59). Otherwise a shade better than Ed Litzenberger.

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

Actually Selanne does look like a solid top 4 guy this round given the excellent post on his playoffs by quoipourquoi.

the facts of the matter are that Selanne has a very solid 5th in the VsX in this round and probably should be in the mix with the top 4 given most of his prime years are in a fully integrated 30 team league with some years a non Canadian being in the #1 or #2 spot.

I for the life of me can't understand why when the VsX tables are posted that we have notes on WW2 guys and guys with partial time in the NHL and not for the fully integrated guys as it is trying to make it look like a fair and complete comp but in reality it leaves out a very important caveat for guys post 1990ish.

That being said it is very important to treat Selanne fairly and not go too much with "our feelings". the facts and actual scoring records are far more subjective and it seems guys like Jagr, AO and now Selanne are going to get the "we we don't feel they were as good as their stats" treatment, yet guys we didn't see play seem to get the collective benefit of the doubt.

selanne has an excellent shot at the top 4 for me this round, given 3 facotrs

1) His excellent VsX, which should get a slight boost when compared equally among his competitors this round in an all Canadian way.

2) His elite international resume as being the star on a non elite team and perfroming like an elite player, along with a really good playoff resume , as pointed out by quoipourquoi

3) His excellent longevity and elite to excellent performance over such a long period of time, it might not matter as much to absolute peak guys but staying power does and should matter in this project.

AO and Lindsay are in my top 4 not sure on the 4th guy but leaning towards VK right now.

Selanne should be very close to these two other players who aren't up for voting yet.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Prolific only when supported by Doug Harvey(1961-62 and 1962-63) and career year from Bill Gadsby(1958-59). Otherwise a shade better than Ed Litzenberger.

Looking at the numbers this seems a bit extreme (I guess it depends on what your definition of "a shade" is also), but Litzenberger had a career year in 58'-59' (supported by Pierre Pilote for what that's worth) with 77 points, but then never topped 64 the rest of his career. Bathgate had several finishes outside of the above 3 seasons in that realm:

56-57: 77 pts
57-58: 78 pts
59-60: 74 pts
60-61: 77pts
63-64: 77 pts


I do think that there is a valid point here: Bathgate's 3 best seasons were supported by Doug Harvey and peak Gadsby, I just don't think it's fair to call him slightly better than Ed Litzenberger.

Also, this same analysis should be applied to all players... Lindsay supported by Howe and Kelly was brought up last vote. How many of Geoffrion's best seasons were supported by Harvey? What kind of support did Teemu Selanne get from the blueline? Etc.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Dickie Moore

Selanne doesn't look like a Top 4 threat this round and 'hockey people' prefer Dickie Moore over Geoffrion right?

Red Fisher preferred Geoffrion#7 over Moore#9, when ranking the top Canadiens he had seen play although it is very close between the two playerThe Life and Times of Bernard Geoffrion by Stan Fischler, Geoffrion admits that he was not a great skater. Also little mention is made about Geoffrion's defense.

Geoffrion was a great shooter, had good puck movement and was disciplined on his wing.Not close to a power forward in the mold of a Bert Olmstead or even Dickie Moore.

If ranking defensively the main RWs during the 1956-60 dynasty it would be Claude Provost, Maurice Richard, Bernie Geoffrion. Dickie Moore was much better defensively. As a junior center he was effective covering Jean Beliveau.Other junior and semi pro centers could not.

In the NHL Moore covered Gordie Howe. Geoffrion never had special assignments.

 

[Canadiens1958]

1958-59

Looking at the numbers this seems a bit extreme (I guess it depends on what your definition of "a shade" is also), but Litzenberger had a career year in 58'-59' (supported by Pierre Pilote for what that's worth) with 77 points, but then never topped 64 the rest of his career. Bathgate had several finishes outside of the above 3 seasons in that realm:

56-57: 77 pts
57-58: 78 pts
59-60: 74 pts
60-61: 77pts
63-64: 77 pts


I do think that there is a valid point here: Bathgate's 3 best seasons were supported by Doug Harvey and peak Gadsby, I just don't think it's fair to call him slightly better than Ed Litzenberger.

Also, this same analysis should be applied to all players... Lindsay supported by Howe and Kelly was brought up last vote. How many of Geoffrion's best seasons were supported by Harvey? What kind of support did Teemu Selanne get from the blueline? Etc.

Lindsay - see my post about the 1958-59 Pappy Line in Chicago - Lindsay, Sloan Litzenberger, top scoring line in the league. Lindsay without Howe and Kelly. Neither Lindsay or Litzenberger were fast wingers who could benefit from Pilote's transition game but they did benefit from Pilote's possession game in the offensive zone.

Geoffrion:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/MTL/1952.html

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/g/geoffbe01.html

Check his rookie season 1951-52, without Beliveau and before Harvey became an offensive factor. Then compare to the 1961-62 season after Harvey was traded. Geoffrion's biggest obstacle was staying healthy.

Teemu Selanne - 1992-93 rookie season - Phil Housley.

Basic point is difference in performance without the surrounding cast.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Actually Selanne does look like a solid top 4 guy this round given the excellent post on his playoffs by quoipourquoi.

the facts of the matter are that Selanne has a very solid 5th in the VsX in this round and probably should be in the mix with the top 4 given most of his prime years are in a fully integrated 30 team league with some years a non Canadian being in the #1 or #2 spot.

I for the life of me can't understand why when the VsX tables are posted that we have notes on WW2 guys and guys with partial time in the NHL and not for the fully integrated guys as it is trying to make it look like a fair and complete comp but in reality it leaves out a very important caveat for guys post 1990ish.

VsX already takes into account "integration" for the most part. That's why it's superior to top 10 finishes if you only want to look at a single metric.

It's the percentage a player is behind the #2 scorer in the league (unless #2 is a statistical outlier, then a slightly different standard is used to estimate what a typical #2 scorer would have gotten).

So in the modern NHL, with the top scorers closer together (likely due to the integration of talent from other countries), you do get more players with high VsX scores per year.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Teemu Selanne - 1992-93 rookie season - Phil Housley.

Basic point is difference in performance without the surrounding cast.

So looking at it the other way, Selanne managed to finish 2nd in points twice (behind Lemieux/Jagr) once with Dimitri Mironov and once with Fredrik Olausson as his best blueline support.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

So looking at it the other way, Selanne managed to finish 2nd in points twice (once each behind Lemieux/Jagr) with Dimitri Mironov and Fredrik Olausson as his blueline support.

But with Paul Kariya on his other wing, playing as 2 of the 4 dead puck era superstars (along with Jagr and Bure) who were generally allowed to go all-out offense even during that era. (If you want to count healthy Lemieux, he did, as well).

Of course, based on Dave Keon's comments after the trade, Bathgate was probably allowed to go all-offense for the Rangers, or at least as much as would be possible during the Original 6.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Frederick Olausson

So looking at it the other way, Selanne managed to finish 2nd in points twice (behind Lemieux/Jagr) once with Dimitri Mironov and once with Fredrik Olausson as his best blueline support.

Olausson provided a solid transition and offensive support game:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/o/olausfr01.html

Dimitri Mironov had a 52 PT season during the dead puck era:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/m/mirondm01.html

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Olausson provided a solid transition and offensive support game:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/o/olausfr01.html

Dimitri Mironov had a 52 PT season during the dead puck era:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/m/mirondm01.html

Fine players, but how do they compare to the defensemen the other candidates played with?

 

[Hardyvan123]

Making a pro Selanne case based on VsX is pretty bizarre when he's 5th out of 7 and significantly behind the Top 4.
I'll doubt he catches any of Conacher/Ovechkin even if you remove all Europeans.

Let's look, my comoputer is acting up and the season by season look will take too long but let's look at his consecutive peak 96-00 the 5 years were he was a top 10 point producrer and the makeup of the others during that time frame.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=goals


I brought up goals , as he is known more for a goal scorer and the guys he ranks around with Canadians in bold

goals 96-00

John LeClair 235
Jagr 230
Selanne 223
Bondra 220
Tkachuck 200
Kariya 192
Shannahan 191
Amonte 190
Palffy 185
Lindros 176
Sundin 170
Sakic 169

So there are 4 Canadian in the top 11 in goal scoring over that period of time and only 2 from traditional 06 era talent streams as BC was an insignificant talent stream for a long period of time before the 70's.

In points over the same time period it changes a bit as well, Selanne is a solid 2nd, behind Jagr and the best Canadain players are Sakic and Kariya at 5 and 6 (both from BC which was basically a non factor in producing NHL talent in the 06 era.

the bottom line is that Selanne's VsX score, when context is considered is much closer to the top 4 guys this round than the 5th guy.

Trying to say something positive about Selanne's playoffs doesn't mean he was 'really good', especially compared to the competition he faces.

To be clear "really good" is below excellent and elite but it's not like others here don't have holes or circumstances around their playoff resumes either right?

the point was made quite well earlier up thread that Selanne performed really good in the playoffs given his team circumstances and his poor playoff reputation has been exaggerated by many.

I think that an illusion based on his late resurgence and quite big gap doing nothing noteworthy.
The only player who falls short in terms of longevity or number of elite seasons is Conacher, all others have about 7 or more.

What big gap?

Sure the year in Colorado was a disaster and ages 31 and 32 were jsut okay (but pretty decent for his age).

The bottom line is that Selanne had an elite all time performance from ages 35-41 ( a 7 year period can hardly be referred to as an illusion can it?)

All the points you've made about were Selanne supposedly is excellent (except International play) he's actually average/below average in this group of players.

Sure if one wants to totally disregard the context of when Selanne played.

See above the late 90's was a time period were guys from Europe/States dominated the NHL scoring, at least on par with Canadian elite talent.

If one wants to treat the NHL and it's talent streams as the same in the 06 era and the post 90's then they are doing a great disservice to this project IMO as it puts one group of players to a higher standard of judgment and fairness and context should matter.

 

[MXD]

Olausson provided a solid transition and offensive support game:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/o/olausfr01.html

Dimitri Mironov had a 52 PT season during the dead puck era:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/m/mirondm01.html

Good DMen but absolutely nothing special in the great scheme of things.

 

[Hardyvan123]

VsX already takes into account "integration" for the most part.

Actually it doesn't, it treats every season as the same and makes zero differential for the different talent streams.

Case in point, there is no adjustment for when a non Candian player finishes 1st or 2nd in scoring in any year.

quite simply this puts one group of players at a disadvantage over another group of players plain and simple in this metric (for years when it happens)

That's why it's superior to top 10 finishes if you only want to look at a single metric.

It is a superior metric to top 10 finishes to be sure as top 10 finishes in a 6 or 30 team league don't always hold the same "weight"

It's the percentage a player is behind the #2 scorer in the league (unless #2 is a statistical outlier, then a slightly different standard is used to estimate what a typical #2 scorer would have gotten).

yes this is what is does and it's a good system or metric treating every NHL season in a similar or near simialr matter (trying to account for outliers)

So in the modern NHL, with the top scorers closer together (likely due to the integration of talent from other countries), you do get more players with high VsX scores per year.

Some of the competition and top scoring being closer tog ether is the rise in overall talent form other countries, ie non Canadian sources, but another large affect is from 30 teams having top line MPG and PP time thus making the top 30 scorers in a 30 team league seem quite concentrated as there is more variance (ie a possibility form 30 teams to have a really good top scoring guy) than in a 6 team league were if one or 2 teams play a defensive style and talent is heavily loaded on one or 2 teams (Detroit and the Habs in the 50's come to mind) then yes a certain spread can occur simply due to many less players or possibilities and outcomes of those players.

the reality is that unless some sort of adjustment for the differences in the 2 groups (06 players, heck basically almost all of the NHL before the 80's) in the differences of the talent streams, then a simple look at the VsX metric isn't 100% accurate and benefits one group over the other.

Surely fairness and trying to compare players as equally as possible is a good thing for this project right?

 

[MXD]

I brought up goals , as he is known more for a goal scorer and the guys he ranks around with Canadians in bold

goals 96-00

John LeClair 235
Jagr 230
Selanne 223
Bondra 220
Tkachuck 200
Kariya 192
Shannahan 191
Amonte 190
Palffy 185
Lindros 176
Sundin 170
Sakic 169

The bottom line is that Selanne had an elite all time performance from ages 35-41 ( a 7 year period can hardly be referred to as an illusion can it?)


Sure if one wants to totally disregard the context of when Selanne played.

See above the late 90's was a time period were guys from Europe/States dominated the NHL scoring, at least on par with Canadian elite talent.

If one wants to treat the NHL and it's talent streams as the same in the 06 era and the post 90's then they are doing a great disservice to this project IMO as it puts one group of players to a higher standard of judgment and fairness and context should matter.

Treating the '90 as an era of prime talent is actually a case of not looking at the whole context.

 

[quoipourquoi]

So looking at it the other way, Selanne managed to finish 2nd in points twice (behind Lemieux/Jagr) once with Dimitri Mironov and once with Fredrik Olausson as his best blueline support.

And traded scoring leads with Jagr for all of 1997-98 until the last week when he sat out with accumulated injuries once Anaheim was out of the playoff race. Kariya played just 22 GP. Selanne finished 8th in scoring, but was a Hart and Pearson nominee - and many considered him to be the best skater:

Buffalo Sabres goalie Dominik Hasek is The Sporting News player of the year in the NHL for the second year in a row. In a poll of players, Hasek received 98 votes, followed by Anaheim's Teemu Selanne (69) and Pittsburgh's Jaromir Jagr (25).

Selanne had a three-year run of being arguably the 2nd best skater in all three years, and depending on how high your opinion of Lemieux/Jagr are, that's a pretty strong 2nd. Not saying he's top-four here, but don't not vote for him just because the two players he always gets compared to aren't eligible yet.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Hardy, you're complaining that a metric that has Jaromir Jagr #2 among wingers all-time (ahead of Bobby Hull and Maurice Richard) and Alexander Ovechkin - who just finished has age 28 season - as 8th all-time, and 3rd among "goals first" players (behind Hull and Richard) as not friendly enough towards modern players.

 

[unknown33]

http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=goals


I brought up goals , as he is known more for a goal scorer and the guys he ranks around with Canadians in bold

goals 96-00

John LeClair 235
Jagr 230
Selanne 223
Bondra 220
Tkachuck 200
Kariya 192
Shannahan 191
Amonte 190
Palffy 185
Lindros 176
Sundin 170
Sakic 169

Pretty sure I'm able to produce similar results for most of the players available.

the bottom line is that Selanne's VsX score, when context is considered is much closer to the top 4 guys this round than the 5th guy.

Oh alright so he is closer to being 4th out of 7 than being 6th out of 7. (Kharlamov obviously not included). How is this an argument for ranking him 4th?

To be clear "really good" is below excellent and elite but it's not like others here don't have holes or circumstances around their playoff resumes either right?

Nah, he's still like 6th out of 7 for playoffs.

What big gap?

He has a 11 year gap between his Top 10 scoring finishes.

The bottom line is that Selanne had an elite all time performance from ages 35-41 ( a 7 year period can hardly be referred to as an illusion can it?)

Elite relative to his age group, yes. Did you give Cook bonus points for having his great seasons when he was older?

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Oh alright so he is closer to being 4th out of 7 than being 6th out of 7. (Kharlamov obviously not included). How is this an argument for ranking him 4th?

I realize you are just quoting Hardyvan, but this is actually not true. Again, strictly talking about VsX, there is a big gap between the top 4 and Selanne, and a smaller gap between Selanne in 5 and Geoffrion in 6 (and Geoffrion was an elite playoff scorer which certainly should give him some sort of boost). The next big gap is between Geoffrion at 6 and Mahovlich at 7.

And no, VsX is obviously not the be-all end all.

 

[unknown33]

I realize you are just quoting Hardyvan, but this is actually not true. Again, strictly talking about VsX, there is a big gap between the top 4 and Selanne, and a smaller gap between Selanne in 5 and Geoffrion in 6 (and Geoffrion was an elite playoff scorer which certainly should give him some sort of boost). The next big gap is between Geoffrion at 6 and Mahovlich at 7.

I know intially I was saying:

Making a pro Selanne case based on VsX is pretty bizarre when he's 5th out of 7 and significantly behind the Top 4.

My point was that even if we artificially add 'integrated league' points like HV suggested for Selanne, he's still not Top 4 in this metric.

 

[unknown33]

Actually, if somebody is closer to 4th than to 5th...

That mean's he's 3rd or best.

I thought it was a typo by HV because it didn't make any sense.
Unless HV can suggest some modification to the method that makes Selanne 3rd ahead of Ovechkin.

 

[ted2019]

The top 4 is very easy for Me this round.
I'm curious on how Selanne's Olympic record will be looked at. Here it is in a nutshell.
Games : 40
Goals: 21
Assists: 21
3 Bronze Medals

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Bernie Geoffrion in the playoffs

Geoffrion was the leading playoff scorer of the dynasty that won 5 Cups in a row from 1956-1960

Leading playoff scorers 1956-1960, sorted by points, points-per-game also listed

player|GP|G|A|P|PPG
Geoffrion|49|29|39|68|1.39
Moore|49|21|36|57|1.16
Beliveau|41|28|27|55|1.34
H Richard|49|13|34|47|0.96
M Richard|42|25|19|44|1.05
Harvey|49|8|32|40|0.82
Olmstead|51|11|28|39|0.76
MacKell|29|12|23|35|1.21
McKenney|29|12|18|30|1.03
Howe|25|7|20|27|1.08

http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=points

In terms of individual seasons, Geoffrion led the playoffs in goals and points in 1957 (11 goals in 10 games!!!!) and in assists and points in 1960.

Geoffrion was a strong playoff scorer before the dynasty years

In the three years before the dynasty (1953-1955, Habs win 1 Cup, Detroit the other 2), Geoffrion was behind only Howe and Lindsay of the Red Wings dynasty in the playoffs. Only Alex Delvecchio of the Red Wings was close to these 3. (M Richard had an uncharacteristically weak playoffs in 1954 and was suspended for 1955). http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=points

Overall, Geoffrion scored 10+ points in the playoffs for 8 straight seasons from 1953-1960, back when the playoffs were only two rounds long (his team went to the finals in every year of this time frame). He scored 3 points in 4 playoff games in 1961 (not great, but not terrible) after winning his only Hart Trophy, then declined rapidly in both the regular season and the playoffs.