Speculation: Roster Building Thread LVIII: At part 58, I am out of titles.

[I Eat Crow]

Anybody worried about a Toronto cap scenario in the near future?

Maybe not for a few years but all these kids will get raises, etc in a short time. It’s not like a video game where you build a star team from 19-30. Will the Rangers be in a cap mess like Toronto within 4 years?

Anybody concerned?

If Kakko and Kravtsov put us in a Toronto cap situation, it means we're in better shape in 3 years than I think.

We have a lot of young players. Our future core is going to be on ELC's for the next 3 to 6 years depending on slides and when they sign. I'm not concerned about the cap in 3 years. Lots of money coming off the books in 2021 that can go to extensions for our young guys that are due up.

 

[YoSoyLalo]

This isnt NHL 19. Keep looking further.

Oh, it isn’t? Thanks, I didn’t know that.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

Agreed. Cap-wise I'm totally more concerned about the next two season than after that. On the other hand, the league has lock-out written all over it.

 

[NoQuitInNewMexico]

If Toronto ends up having to trade Nylander for a package like, just using Rangers pieces, Chytil and Buch, I don’t think they crumble into dust. They choked in the playoffs in a hard matchup, so people are down on them.

 

[Tawnos]

I find it amusing to see how cautious people are with predictions for Kakko. You can tell people have no experience with super high-end prospects like him. Checking forward, give me a break. Kakko is instantly our best shooter, maybe contested by Zibs. I feel some want to underestimate him for whatever reason.

To me this kid is veni, vidi, vici. He is 100%ly top-6 from the get-go.

Why shouldn't people be cautious? Not for nothing, but the most highly touted forward from last year's draft spent much of the season on the 3rd line and worked his way up from there, finishing 20-17-37. Kaako is a better prospect than Svechnikov was, but there are plenty of people who before the 18-19 season would say a 20-17-37 line would be a major disappointment from Svech. There's nothing wrong with keeping expectations low for a rookie year. Long-term, I think we're all expecting that he'll be a franchise level winger, but talking about next year there's nothing wrong with thinking his production as a rookie might not be very high.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

Dubas made a number of stupid decisions and they’re only in the spot they are because they drafted two insanely productive players and one pretty good one in Nylander. If we get to that point we’ll be lucky and I have full faith Gorton will manage it better than Dubas

Also a good point of difference between us and Toronto is that they really built up their offense but neglected their defense for the most part, Gorton has paid great attention to both ends.

So even if we end up in a similar cap crunch, we'll hopefully have a better constructed team and will make it out of the first round before the crunch. If Toronto had even a slightly better defense, they could've legitimately won the cup this past season.

 

[Riche16]

Also a good point of difference between us and Toronto is that they really built up their offense but neglected their defense for the most part, Gorton has paid great attention to both ends.

So even if we end up in a similar cap crunch, we'll hopefully have a better constructed team and will make it out of the first round before the crunch. If Toronto had even a slightly better defense, they could've legitimately won the cup this past season.

Other teams may very well look at the money we have tied up in our wingers in the same vein, especially IF we resign Kreider. I don't think we will but it could be a concern especially if a day arrives where we want/need to sign a UFA stud defenseman (because ours haven't panned out) or a center to put us over the top.

I'm more concerned about the cap this year and next and NOT being forced to package an asset to alleviate that situation than I am after Hank, Staal, Kirk and Smith are gone.

 

[maddskkilz]

Given the lower than expected cap combined with the number of top-tier RFAs looking for big-money means the trade market for middle-tier players is going to be very weak. A lot of teams HAVE to move salary to sign their players and the few teams with cap-space will be operating in a buyer's market and thus can be very discerning in who they take on and at what price.
In this environment I think it will be impossible to move Staal or Smith. We should also void buy-outs like the plague and avoid adding picks to move contracts.

Relevant tradeable assets include Kreider, Names, Strome, Fast, and Shattenkirk.

Shattenkirk would be ideal to move but even with 50% retention might be difficult to find a team with the capspace and need for an aging, declining PP QB.

From there we would also probably look to move 1-2 forwards depending on the RFA contracts for Buch, Trouba, DeAngelo, and Lemieux. Kreider to Arizona would be a good fit. They have Kessel and Grabner, and addition of Kreider could give them three lines with top-end speed. Kreider for Arizona 1st + Brad Richardson (who we would dump in the AHL). ARI can keep Richardson if they want.

I would gladly move Strome or Names for a 3rd-4th in next year's draft with 0% retention. But given the market I would even take a 6th or 7th. Understand its not the best asset management but at this point let's get rid of them and move on. Another option might be LA Kings. Either Names or Strome or both for Lewis (1 yr left till UFA at $2mm, age 32, career high 26 pts) and/or Kyle Clifford (1 yr left at $1.6mm, age 28, career high 21 points). Upgrades the Kings depth scoring if they plan to compete this year. If not, can probably flip either of them at the TDL for more than they would have gotten for Lewis or Clifford. NYR would put whoever they got back into the minors which serves two-fold purpose of clearing cap space and filling out Wolfpack roster with veterans.
None of this is ideal but, I just don't think teams will get the types of quality returns they want this summer on their middle-six, bottom-four players.

 

[Leetch3]

how cautious or optimistic we as fans are has ZERO impact on anything

 

[NYRFANMANI]

Why shouldn't people be cautious?

Why should they be? Because Svech had a "disappointing season"? I said Kaapo is a veni, vidi, vici player, argue that point if any.

Not for nothing, but the most highly touted forward from last year's draft spent much of the season on the 3rd line and worked his way up from there, finishing 20-17-37. Kaako is a better prospect than Svechnikov was, but there are plenty of people who before the 18-19 season would say a 20-17-37 line would be a major disappointment from Svech.

Super irrelevant. Svech isn't comparable at all. If Kaako had played in the CHL, I wonder what his numbers would have been. Again, irrelevant.

There's nothing wrong with keeping expectations low for a rookie year. Long-term, I think we're all expecting that he'll be a franchise level winger, but talking about next year there's nothing wrong with thinking his production as a rookie might not be very high.

Never said there was. What's wrong with saying the opposite? I find the reactions funny because they are very shy and think to myself, must be the in-experience with young high end talent- which hasn't happened in like two decades with this fanbase.

 

[Embryo]

Check this video out, only a day old. This guy really goes hardcore in depth. What are your thoughts?

 

[Embryo]

Referring to my previous post, this guy says "The pressure in NYC is nowhere near as it is in Toronto or Boston as long as you stay away from Larry Brooks." lol

 

[YoSoyLalo]

Check this video out, only a day old. This guy really goes hardcore in depth. What are your thoughts?

He makes decent videos, but I stopped watching when he said that he considers Zibanejad a 2nd line center.

 

[Embryo]

He makes decent videos, but I stopped watching when he said that he considers Zibanejad a 2nd line center.

Yeah he still says that in this video. He HATES the Rangers, though, he may not pay much attention to them. He is a die hard Canucks fan....so that kinda explains a lot. I admire his lack of bias, though.

 

[Chalfdiggity3]

Yes, I do, it's called math. It allows you to predict such things as velocity, temperature.... and also value.



No one knows anything down to 100%, including whether the sun will rise tomorrow.

But all logic points to a new TV deal being at LEAST twice the current value, and more likely closer to three times greater.

Where is all that money going to go? Into the owners pockets? No way, the players will strike.

Well, I guess in that scenario, I could be wrong, and there could be no more NHL.

But absent that, the players are going to demand the cap go up. And it will.

Use your head. This isn't me pulling things out of midair.

The NBA got a new TV deal and the cap skyrocketed. The same thing is about to happen to the NHL. This isn't guessing.

It's going up. There is likely to be an offseason when everyone has tons and tons of cap space, just like the NBA did. Even if they stagger the increases, we will be more than fine.



What the cap has done the past few years is more or less irrelevant when you consider there hasn't been a new TV deal since 2011, and there is one coming in 2021. So that is when the cap is going to start rising sharply.

But if you want to play that game, there's been about a 12% growth in the cap the past 4 years. Similar growth will see the cap at $92-$95 million over another 4 years. Still probably enough for us to squeak by when you consider all the money coming off our books.



I am being smart. You're the one who isn't thinking about the future.

The cap went up 2 million this past year. Yes it went up 12% over the past 5 years but every year it has gone up less and less. You are using the growth rate over 5 years. I'm stating that although there is growth each year it is becoming more apparent that it's becoming less and less money each season.

I guess we will see. I hope you are right

 

[I Eat Crow]

The Atlantic division is going to be murder for the next couple years. We very well may see both wild cards come from that division next season.

I expect Boston to take a step back, but they'll still be good and make the playoffs.

Tampa's window is still open as long as they can keep all of their franchise guys. I expect Point to be signed and guys on ELC's to replace Stralman and Girardi. They're really not losing much even with trading Miller for cap relief.

Toronto is going for it. They upgraded their defense a bit with Barrie. They'll have to deal Nylander to fit Barrie in long term. This is their year to make a push. To be fair, they took a red hot Boston squad to Game 7. I'd be surprised if they don't win a round unless they run into Tampa or Boston again in the first round. Has Jake Gardiner signed anywhere yet?

Buffalo got a lot better this offseason. Dahlin another year wiser. Question for them is goaltending. They upgraded their defense. They can definitely be a wild card team if they stay healthy.

Montreal also got better. They're a natural fot for Gardiner if he's interested in playing there. I think they'll make the playoffs.

It's between Montreal, Buffalo, Carolina, NYI, Philly, NJ, Columbus, and us for two wild card spots.

I don't see the Rangers making the playoffs with how strong the Atlantic division is.

Washington and Pittsburgh are mortal locks for spots from the Metro. It's going to be a dog fight for 3rd. Every single other team in the division could potentially take that 3rd spot.

Carolina should be as good as they were l in st season. They made improvements.

Columbus got worse but Tortorella will still have them in it. Goaltending is a massive question for them.

Philly is going to be better.

NYI will shithouse their way with Trotz to be in contention.

Devils got better but I don't think they're a playoff team...yet. Schneider hit a wall big time. They'll live and die by him.

Rangers also massively improved this summer and have tons of young talent invading starting this year.

I predict a 5th or 6th place finish for the Rangers in the division. About 20th to 25th overall. Still in lottery pick range.

Starting in 2020-21, I think you have this lineup, and they'll make the playoffs:

Chytil-Zibanejad-Kakko
Panarin-Howden-Kravtsov
Lemieux-Andersson-Buchnevich
4th line, no idea

Skjei-Trouba
Miller-DeAngelo
Staal-Fox
Shattenkirk if not bought out
Rykov
Hajek

Lundqvist
Georgiev
Shestyorkin

Between now and 2021 playoffs, I think Gorton makes a trade for a 2nd line center using a LHD as bait. Skjei could be that guy if Hajek or Rykov prove ready for top 4 duty. I think K'Andre the Giant is a top 4 guy from the get go after another year at Wisconsin. We'll still be saddled by Staal but his contract is up the following year. Think Reunanen may be on the team in place of Staal to start 21-22.

Long term, the lack of forward depth worries me. I think Gropp and Gettinger will be given every opportunity to win a spot this year and next for the 4th line. Does a guy like Fontaine step up and give the Rangers a cheap 4C? I see 2C and bottom six forward depth as the biggest weaknesses and needs in the system as of now.

I think Henriksson needs at least 2 or 3 more years in Sweden to marinate. I wouldn't count on him coming over until 2022.

 

[Embryo]

I just want to finish top 3 in the division and start the playoffs with home ice and I'll be more than satisfied for 20-21. After this year, it's going to REALLY be about going all the way. First let's let this team mesh for one season and experience what it's like to be in the playoffs together, and then in 21 all the way through 29-30 just push every year hardcore for the SC. At this point, forget about Hank getting a Cup. If it happens, great, but it should not be a priority over what is best for the NY Rangers as a hockey team and business.

 

[Ken Lund]

They are playing up the New Yawk stereotype pretty hard. Would have liked a bit more diversity aside from the section 400 crowd of Staten Island.

Between the one loser talking about his bloody hand from punching out the MSG light bulb to the double chin guy burning Ranger jerseys and renouncing fandom in favor of premier league soccer if we lose, not exactly proud company they are appealing to.

With that attitude I'm not gonna tell you you which of those guys was me.

 

[Chalfdiggity3]

This has not been true yet and may never be true.

Really bc Toronto has 3.7m to sign mitch marner this year. Then. Ext year although they have some cap coming off the books after next year. They still have to sign an entire defense with just Morgan rielly signed. Barrie, muzzin and ceci will want money. So they have a serious problem

 

[Tawnos]

Why should they be? Because Svech had a "disappointing season"? I said Kaako is a veni, vidi, vici player, argue that point if any.

Super irrelevant. Svech isn't comparable at all. If Kaako had played in the CHL, I wonder what his numbers would have been. Again, irrelevant.

Never said there was. What's wrong with saying the opposite? I find the reactions funny because they are very shy and think to myself, must be the in-experience with young high end talent- which hasn't happened in like two decades with this fanbase.

I wasn't comparing Svechnikov and Kakko as players (learn to spell his name right). I was saying that coming in as a highly touted prospect with high-end talent isn't a guarantee for a highly productive rookie season.

I could easily say I find it funny that anyone would think they know exactly what's going to happen this season with him. Yes, Kakko could put up great numbers and I certainly hope he has a season that's Calder-caliber. In fact, I'd peg the chances of that as being pretty high, but I just don't expect it. At this moment, I'd say the range for Kakko as a rookie is 35-85 points. Let's remember that, wait and see what happens and not laugh at people who are keeping their expectations in check.

 

[Chalfdiggity3]

I'm pretty sure you can't see into the future either, so maybe you should be a bit less certain in your belief that buying out a contract will hurt us. The cap might not go up much over the next couple years because they want to keep escrow down, but the TV deals should give it a significant bump. How much? No one knows, obviously, but it won't be nothing. You can be sure of that.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that we waste cap space, but you don't seem capable of grasping the idea that we might not have a choice other than to buy someone out.

I think we do. I dont believe we are a playoff team this year even if we keep everyone. I dont mind trading krieder for a 1st and a prospect or a 2nd and a very good prospect. I dont want krieder for the money he will command and the years. Anders Lee type deal? No thanks especially for a player who disappears in game and for long stretches of the season.

And trading names for a 3rd is more than okay with me. I'm sure we could get more at the deadline if he shows up on a top line but it's a cap casualty. There's are cap space we need and are good for this year. We co tinue to draft in the lottery this coming season. Get another stud forward and the rebuild becomes even better. I dont want to half ass this rebuild and rush it. We are year 1 of the rebuild and Rome wasn't built in a day

 

[YoSoyLalo]

I just want to finish top 3 in the division and start the playoffs with home ice and I'll be more than satisfied for 20-21. After this year, it's going to REALLY be about going all the way. First let's let this team mesh for one season and experience what it's like to be in the playoffs together, and then in 21 all the way through 29-30 just push every year hardcore for the SC. At this point, forget about Hank getting a Cup. If it happens, great, but it should not be a priority over what is best for the NY Rangers as a hockey team and business.

Think the Rangers are going to surprise people, including their own fans. Oh, the team has holes, noticeable ones, but we have eye catching talent that will keep us in and win us games. We’re gonna be in a LOT of fun games next year, and I think we’ll challenge for that 2 spot in the division (which is gonna be a clusterf*** btw, IMO it’s completely unpredictable right now).

 

[SA16]

Why shouldn't people be cautious? Not for nothing, but the most highly touted forward from last year's draft spent much of the season on the 3rd line and worked his way up from there, finishing 20-17-37. Kaako is a better prospect than Svechnikov was, but there are plenty of people who before the 18-19 season would say a 20-17-37 line would be a major disappointment from Svech. There's nothing wrong with keeping expectations low for a rookie year. Long-term, I think we're all expecting that he'll be a franchise level winger, but talking about next year there's nothing wrong with thinking his production as a rookie might not be very high.

Because the data shows basically every single 1 or 2 overall pick played in a top six role scores at a 50 point pace their rookie years. If Kakko plays 14 mins/game on the 3rd line like Svechnikov did he almost surely won't but given Quinn said right away he was thinking about him with Zibanejad and other than Panarin and maybe Kreider we don't have many established wings to play there that is highly unlikely to happen.

It's not being cautious. It's being needlessly pessimistic. Barkov is the only forward (out of 10 total) in the last 10 years drafted 1 or 2 that didn't score at a 50+ point pace in that kind of role.

 

[Tawnos]

Because the data shows basically every single 1 or 2 overall pick played in a top six role scores at a 50 point pace their rookie years. If Kakko plays 14 mins/game on the 3rd line like Svechnikov did he almost surely won't but given Quinn said right away he was thinking about him with Zibanejad and other than Panarin and maybe Kreider we don't have many established wings to play there that is highly unlikely to happen.

It's not being cautious. It's being needlessly pessimistic. Barkov is the only forward (out of 10 total) in the last 10 years drafted 1 or 2 that didn't score at a 50+ point pace in that kind of role.

Yeah, because I’m sure last July the Hurricanes plan was to play Svech on the 3rd line.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

The cap better go up significantly or the NHL will start looking like a 3rd world country with a few haves, many have nots and almost no middle class. Not a good equity model for anything.