roenick's a tough case, because objectively, he's close to a bunch of players i would induct (recchi, fleury), and he's close to a bunch of players i wouldn't (sundin, mogilny, nieuwendyk, turgeon). he's close to a bunch of players who are in (federko, mullen), and he's behind a bunch of players who are out (oates, gilmour). maybe it's instructive to compare him to recchi and fleury, who the majority probably wouldn't induct.
everybody is saying, "remember roenick's prime. for four years, he was elite." but was he really more elite in those years than recchi or fleury?
roenick was the third best player on a team that went to the finals (behind chelios and belfour). recchi was the best regular season player and probably the second or third best playoff player on a team that won the cup (behind lemieux and maybe stevens), and was consistently an offensive leader on his philly and montreal teams. fleury won his only cup as a rookie, but was the best forward and at times best player on a star-studded but demoralized and directionless flames team. in most years, he was the only one on the team who seemed to give a ***, while guys like gilmour, nieuwendyk, macinnis, suter, and vernon were just waiting to punch their ticket out of town. even though he never made it out of the first round in calgary after his rookie year, he was usually outstanding in the playoffs, as were roenick and recchi in their primes.
roenick had two top ten finishes in goals (3, 10) and in points (7, 5). recchi had one top ten in goals (9), four in assists (4, 7, 1, 9), and four in points (4, 10, 9, 3). fleury has three top ten finishes in goals (3, 6, 7), two in assists (7, 6), and three in points (8, 6, 7). recchi has the best career numbers, but was also the least spectacular of the three. but i think, objectively, these three are pretty close, with recchi slightly ahead of the other two in both peak and career accomplishment.
so why recchi and fleury, but not roenick (or sundin, mogilny, nieuwendyk, turgeon, and others)? i have my biases, as does everyone who has a HHOF vote. i liked recchi's game. he is a true pro, one of the best playmakers from the wing of his time, always gave 100%, and was as steady as they come. fleury is another guy who i loved watching. i always say, nobody i've ever seen looks like he has more fun playing hockey than theo fleury did, and that goes a long way in my books. i never really cared for roenick's sideshow antics; they always seemed hollow and self-serving to me. but then i never minded fleury's sideshow antics. there's a clear double-standard here, and this is what makes me think that it's a crapshoot with borderline players like these. in any given year, if there's enough guys who like you for some irrational reason over the 10-15 very similar players who are also eligible, then you get in. fleury and recchi have their fans, sundin has his, and roenick does too. if i had to bet, i'd bet on JR getting in someday, but i wouldn't vote for him.
