Friedman: RFA Offer Sheet Compensation

[c_robio]

Would the Oilers match a $7.8 million offer sheet?

Yes they would

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Takes two parties for an offersheet to get signed.

First, the Devils need to deem Draisaitl is worth offering nearly $10M long term. That is a lot of money to commit to any player. Not to mention the compensation they would need to give up. They need to be damn sure that Draisaitl is a franchise forward they can build around.

Second, Draisaitl needs to actually sign the offersheet. New Jersey can send whatever contract off to Draisaitl's agent that they want. But if he doesn't agree to sign it, it doesn't matter. That would mean agreeing to leave a team very clearly on the rise with the best 1-2 punch in the league outside of Crosby/Malkin and go play with the worst team in the East (no offense intended to the Devils). Not many players get the opportunity to spend their careers riding shotgun with a generational talent. McDavid and Draisaitl are very close friends and I imagine they both believe that the Oilers can be the next Penguins/Blackhawks. It's a lot to expect a player to give that opportunity up. Especially because it's not like the Oilers are going to cheap out on Draisaitl. They'll pay him his worth.

And finally, even if the Devils send an offersheet Draisaitl's way, and even if he signed it. The Oilers still have the opportunity to match it. It does the Devil's no good sending an offer sheet the Oilers way only to have it matched. Just burns a bridge that wouldn't need to be burned. For the Oilers not to match, the salary would have to be too high and the compensation would need to outweigh the cost of losing their 2nd best player. I really doubt two 1sts and a couple other picks would be enough for the Oilers to turn that contract down.

Not to say it couldn't happen. It certainly could. But if the past has shown us anything it's that offer sheets are almost never signed, and even when they are, they almost never go unmatched.

I think overall, just because he can be signed to an offer sheet, gives him lots of leverage. For example, Gaudreau couldn't sign an offer sheet and it really hurt his negotiation power.

I don't expect him to sign with anyone but the Oilers, but I do expect him to get paid.

Also, I'm moving to Edmonton next year for school! You guys excited or what?

 

[SEALBound]

is the goal to get more offer sheets? Those are some pretty low prices to be honest...

 

[Street Hawk]

I think overall, just because he can be signed to an offer sheet, gives him lots of leverage. For example, Gaudreau couldn't sign an offer sheet and it really hurt his negotiation power.

I don't expect him to sign with anyone but the Oilers, but I do expect him to get paid.

Also, I'm moving to Edmonton next year for school! You guys excited or what?

This contract is the opportunity for Leon to get paid. Looking back on his ELC, he played 37 games in year 1, so made under $450K in base salary, and didn't hit any bonuses. In year 2, he starts the year in the AHL but ends up playing 72 games in the NHL. Makes $820K in base salary plus whatever bonus money he was able to earn. Last season, plays on the big club full time and maxes out at $3.375 million. So, depending on his bonuses in year 2, he's somewhere around $5 million earned on his ELC.

This coming deal will set him up for the rest of his life. Like I said, you never know with injuries. (ie. Ekblad taking 3 blows to the head in 15 months). But, it all comes down to negotiations.

1) Do the Oilers come in with a strong offer? Tarasenko and Leon have the same agent in Liut and Tarsenko landed an 8 year $60 million deal for a $7.5 million cap hit. I have to think that's a starting point when it comes to Leon's negotiations. Think that's the comparable that Liut will be citing.

2) Will a team come up with an offer sheet. Of all of the teams that could, I think Carolina is in the best position to do it. They have a deep blue line, and some talented wingers. But, they lack a big time centre. Signed Darling to be their goalie and still have Alex N. developing in the AHL in nets. PK is still trying to sell the team, so maybe a big splash that gets the team back into the playoffs will kickstart more interest in the team. Plus they still have J. Staal, whom at age 29 they could move to recoup some of those draft picks. So, the net deal could be Staal, plus a 1st and 3rd to upgrade to get Leon. Cost would be the $2 million per season overpayment. But, that's the cost of a successful offer sheet.

3) What would the difference in total compensation be between a longer term deal with Edm, vs a 5 year deal with an offer sheet team? Is it $10 million? $15 million? Like I said, $49 million over 5 years puts the comp at 2 1st, 2nd and 3rd. $8 million per from EDM is $64 million. So, difference of $15 million. If I'm Liut, I'd advise taking the extra guaranteed $15 million from EDM. Now, if the Oilers are at $7 million per, I'd advise Leon to take the Offersheet for the $7 difference because I feel that he can easily make that up over the additional 3 years. At $7.5 million per, it's $60 million, so a difference of $11 million over 3 years. So, does Leon want to gamble on himself later or take the sure thing?

 

[Jag68Sid87]

I think it's safe to say there won't be any offer sheets for the umpteenth time this summer.

 

[Bouboumaster]

Jonathan Drouin to Montreal.

 

[Flyerfan52]

is the goal to get more offer sheets? Those are some pretty low prices to be honest...

The total compensation being divided by 5 seems to indicate discouraging an OS. In most cases that 5 years on a 2nd contract takes the player right to UFA.
A GM & his $s guy would have to get pretty creative. Something like 9.8 x 4 bears the same compensation but leaves the team with 1 year of RFA rights. It does mean the player needs to be qualified @ the same amount but unless his play fell off a cliff or he's on LTIR if he's worth the 9.8 in year 4 he'd be qualified asap. If the 1st 3 years were as expected his extention would probably be signed the next July 1.

 

[HOPE]

why these are realy the new numbers!? if so i could clearly see some offersheet being sent !

 

[HOPE]

The total compensation being divided by 5 seems to indicate discouraging an OS. In most cases that 5 years on a 2nd contract takes the player right to UFA.
A GM & his $s guy would have to get pretty creative. Something like 9.8 x 4 bears the same compensation but leaves the team with 1 year of RFA rights. It does mean the player needs to be qualified @ the same amount but unless his play fell off a cliff or he's on LTIR if he's worth the 9.8 in year 4 he'd be qualified asap. If the 1st 3 years were as expected his extention would probably be signed the next July 1.

i dont get your point?? yeah the total compensation is divided by 5 years, thats only to determine the final caphit to see in wich bracket the compensations picks are... if you offer a 7years deal its still gonna be 7 years. the fact that they removed 4x 1st and have a 2 first bracket that are very similar is realy bad for teams like Lightning who have alot of youth to sign and players actually worth 6.5Mish and worth giving a 1st +2nd...

 

[Djp]

I am fairly certain that would be matched

Only way an offer sheet can work is you have to find a cap max team and give a guy a contract that will completely screw up their cap structure. I think a perfect example would have been to give Kucherov last year a 5 year 35M contract

I've said this brfore....the secondary players are the ones you offersheet that would only cost a 2nd or 3td.

An example of this could be buffalo in a few years where they have Eichrl and reinhart under contract but they are near the cap and have 4 forward RFAS to sign but with only $5M in cap space. Some other GMs could come in and sign each one of them for max 3rd round comp levrl. Buffali can't match them all....this losing one for only a 3rd.

 

[Rufus]

I know but that's a lot of salary with McD. Leverage a plenty for Leon.

He's worth that and more. Edmonton isn't going to pinch pennies when it comes to Draisatl

 

[Whileee]

I've said this brfore....the secondary players are the ones you offersheet that would only cost a 2nd or 3td.

An example of this could be buffalo in a few years where they have Eichrl and reinhart under contract but they are near the cap and have 4 forward RFAS to sign but with only $5M in cap space. Some other GMs could come in and sign each one of them for max 3rd round comp levrl. Buffali can't match them all....this losing one for only a 3rd.

GMs hunting in packs?

 

[Djp]

why these are realy the new numbers!? if so i could clearly see some offersheet being sent !

The numbers adjust every year based on new salary cap and avg salary earned for the season.

GMs hunting in packs?

Possible...or you have 2 GMs do it.

Once one does it and the team matches exposes the others unsigned even further.

If they don't have elcs to send out at the start of the season it cause problems with the cap even with the 10% leeway in the offseason.

 

[SDig14]

The easiest option is just sign Leon before an offer sheet can even be extended to him from another team.

No reason to let it extend too long and by the sounds of it Chia has no business he wants to take care of before signing Connor and Leon.

 

[Flyerfan52]

i dont get your point?? yeah the total compensation is divided by 5 years, thats only to determine the final caphit to see in wich bracket the compensations picks are... if you offer a 7years deal its still gonna be 7 years. the fact that they removed 4x 1st and have a 2 first bracket that are very similar is realy bad for teams like Lightning who have alot of youth to sign and players actually worth 6.5Mish and worth giving a 1st +2nd...

The total compensation in the OS is divided by 5. So 9.8 x 7 (maximum for all teams but the 1 holding his rights) = 68.6 with 9.8 paid yearly.
But the total divided by 5 = 13.72 which means higher compensation. This was covered in many previous posts if you care to scroll back a bit

 

[Flyerfan52]

The easiest option is just sign Leon before an offer sheet can even be extended to him from another team.

No reason to let it extend too long and by the sounds of it Chia has no business he wants to take care of before signing Connor and Leon.

That would be the best & easiest option.
Draisaitl & his agent probably have a $ number in mind that includes what he could reasonably expect in an OS should he hold off signing for a week or 2 since Chia is unlikely to counter offer less. As long as the Oilers offer is in that ballpark it should just be a matter of dotting the i's & crossing the t's.
However, if the offer is something like 7.5 x 8 like some contracts signed last year (1 Oilers fans guestimate) & they believe that 9.8 (the # used often in this thread) per on a shorter term is likely there is nothing they lose by waiting a tad. If the OS comes it's match or see ya later. He doesn't even have to sign immediately but shown to Chia with the offer to match or come close it does add a certain something to the talks/negotiation.
Bear in mind he's young, healthy & can reasonably expect this won't be his last contract (& even if it were that 40-50 million $s is a pretty good nest egg) especially if it ends when he's 24-25 years old.

 

[SDig14]

Well, $9.8 million is used as a number only because it's a random offersheet number. Except offersheets on high end young players are rarely, if ever, even offered or signed.

There's no comparables in the league in the last decade that justifies paying Leon anywhere close to that number.

Obviously, the cap hit will decided based on term, depending where it ends up between 5 and 8 years. But cant see it being anything near these crazy suggestions.

He could wait for an offer sheet and hold it over us, but I hope he realizes that is a ****** way to build a cup contender.

 

[HOPE]

The total compensation in the OS is divided by 5. So 9.8 x 7 (maximum for all teams but the 1 holding his rights) = 68.6 with 9.8 paid yearly.
But the total divided by 5 = 13.72 which means higher compensation. This was covered in many previous posts if you care to scroll back a bit

im perfectly aware of this, this is what im saying, but you still get 7 years out of the guy even thought its divided by 5, i was just confuse because you were saying to make offer of 4 years instead of 5 since its divided by 5, you wanna offer the most term by keeping the picks as low as possible if you want the kid to sign offersheet, dont see why they would sign a 4year offersheet

 

[boredmale]

Well, $9.8 million is used as a number only because it's a random offersheet number. Except offersheets on high end young players are rarely, if ever, even offered or signed.

I don't think its random in the sense 9.8M is 2 firsts, a second and a third while 9.82M is 4 firsts