Speculation: Retool a forward Group or defence? Ted Talk

[Canucks LB]

I’m having this debate with my friend right now, and I’m really curious what people think.

He is absolutely adamant that it’s much easier to retool Forwards than, D.

Let’s use the Canucks for an example.

Here’s my thought process, flame away, if you hypothetically, and it’s not so unrealistically, remove Myers next season (Trade when his bonus is gone), and buyout OEL, resign Wolanin, and try to find another D ( Gavrikov is a dan client) in FA, we would hypothetically be changing over 60% of our defence going into next season with Hronik.

While the forwards basically just need a third line Centre.

Let’s not use the Canucks is an example now, let’s just talk in general.

Finding basically 2 lines of forwards that are good enough to win the cup, I feel is trickier than finding 6D to fill a roster.

Obviously, you need a balance of both, but I just feel you don’t really need a great Top 6d to win a cup, I think you basically just need two Really good/ Star D ideally.

Also, just thinking about it, let’s again look at the Canucks, this defence going into next season, could look literally completely different next season, it’s not 100% going to work out, and everything is going to click, but hypothetically, we could see 80% of the Defence be completely turned over from this year in a full season.

Assuming schenn, myers, oel, burroughs, dermott (health) poolman (Health)

Leaving us with Hughes (same), wolanin ( new),Hronik (new), bear (sameish), FA Signing, FA Signing / AHL Player.

Will it be better in the long run, who knows, but it would be a completely different hockey team, basically than what we saw this year.

Thoughts!

Click to read more...

 

[JohnHodgson]

We’ve been retooling our defense for eight years bud.



Good D is hard to find (pause). Simple as that.

 

[Canucks LB]

I know that all sounded probably pretty confusing.

We’ve been retooling our defense for eight years bud.



Good D is hard to find (pause). Simple as that.

it really depends, I think it’s more about our pro scouting staff more than anything, imagine if we targeted a guy like Toews when he was available, or marino, there’s lots of examples of players, that were readily available, we just never made the jump properly, made a lot of bad decisions

 

[credulous]

good defensemen move all the time. good centers rarely move. if you just need wingers you can get those anywhere

 

[Canucks LB]

good defensemen move all the time. good centers rarely move. if you just need wingers you can get those anywhere

That’s a good point actually, I think it’s more just between centres or defenceman more than anything

 

[Javaman]

Your friend is correct and you should apologize for wasting his time.

 

[Josepho]

Probably defence. There's a lot of guys that don't have name reputation, and I still think a lot of guys like Benning still exist who care way more about random physical attributes like hitting and having a hard slapshot over being effective in transition or whatever.

Toews, Marino, Forsling, Montour, Siegenthaler, Tanev (to Calgary) were very good value acquisitions for their teams.

For a team in our position we should probably need to visit the trade market at the deadline, and be aggressive if there are young and extendable players, even if people don't think they fit our "timeline" or whatever. I'm more and more convinced Hronek was the right kind of move to make, even if I'm very skeptical on the value. A ton of these deadline deals where defencemen are traded for picks have turned out to be absolutely massive steals for the buyers.

- Lindholm to BOS for 1st, 2nd, 2nd. In hindsight I absolutely would've done a similar package (2022 1st and 2nd maybe? Our pick was slated to be higher than Boston's). This would've instantly given us someone to anchor a shutdown pairing and Lindholm isn't showing signs of decline.

- Siegenthaler to NJ for a 3rd in 2021. NJ finished 4th last in the season when they made this move - I'm sure the media would've torn our management apart if they did this exact move from this position. Pretty sure many teams (including ours) are kicking themselves on this one.

- Brady Skjei to CAR for a 2020 1st. I feel like we could've probably bid something similar with the package we gave up for Toffoli here, was only 26 at the time and is still a very strong contributor today. Ottawa had a lot of picks as well and should've also been in on this.

 

[JohnHodgson]

Probably defence. There's a lot of guys that don't have name reputation, and I still think a lot of guys like Benning still exist who care way more about random physical attributes like hitting and having a hard slapshot over being effective in transition or whatever.

Toews, Marino, Forsling, Montour, Siegenthaler, Tanev (to Calgary) were very good value acquisitions for their teams.

For a team in our position we should probably need to visit the trade market at the deadline, and be aggressive if there are young and extendable players, even if people don't think they fit our "timeline" or whatever. I'm more and more convinced Hronek was the right kind of move to make, even if I'm very skeptical on the value. A ton of these deadline deals where defencemen are traded for picks have turned out to be absolutely massive steals for the buyers.

- Lindholm to BOS for 1st, 2nd, 2nd. In hindsight I absolutely would've done a similar package (2022 1st and 2nd maybe? Our pick was slated to be higher than Boston's). This would've instantly given us someone to anchor a shutdown pairing and Lindholm isn't showing signs of decline.

- Siegenthaler to NJ for a 3rd in 2021. NJ finished 4th last in the season when they made this move - I'm sure the media would've torn our management apart if they did this exact move from this position. Pretty sure many teams (including ours) are kicking themselves on this one.

- Brady Skjei to CAR for a 2020 1st. I feel like we could've probably bid something similar with the package we gave up for Toffoli here, was only 26 at the time and is still a very strong contributor today. Ottawa had a lot of picks as well and should've also been in on this.

Great points.

I don't think Anaheim woulda done Lindholm dirty and sent him to Van... but I did just check and he didn't have an NTC in his old deal. Also this management team would have been torn to bits by this fanbase/media if they traded futures for Lindholm. Hronek's a far better player to target based on age/upside IMO.

Skjei is interesting... I think a lot of people at the time thought it was an overpayment.

Hopefully Bear can be our version of Seigenthaler.

 

[Aphid Attraction]

D

 

[Canucks LB]

I’m just gonna use colours to make my point a little more easy on the eyes.

Potentially out (+ Already Gone )

Tyler Myers ( trade )
OEL (Buyout)
Burroughs
Poolman(Injury)
Bear (ufa, But would like to keep)
Schenn (Traded)

D this year mostly —
Hughes + Schenn
Oel + Myers
Dermotte/depth + bear

What I think it will look like NEXT Season—

Hughes | UFA
UFA | Hronik
Dermott | Bear
Wolanin

Clearly we need to find two legit Top 4 D in FA / Trade or One of Wolanin need to be in our top 6, and just find one.

Gavrikov is the most obvious, Perfect fit.
Who else? Who knows?
If we continue to lose, Would you trade our 10th overall for a Top 4 D?

I’m not saying, it’s easy, I’m just saying what team is going to look completely different on the backend, over 60% of the D turned around potentially.

Update - So I just took a quick look at the ufa market, here are some players that interest me big time, if we’re doing a retool.

Gavrikov, Orlov, Dumba, Severson, Schenn, and even Edler.

I don’t value all of them the same, I’m just throwing out names that are interesting to me

 

[Aphid Attraction]

I think forwards are like hot people, they are easy to identify by just looking at them.

D are harder because its like trying to identify who is going to be good for the long run in a marriage. Someone dependable when times are tough.

Sure we all find Gudbrsnson better looking, but every one knows long term we all would rather come home and cuddle up to Tanev.

 

[JohnHodgson]

I’m just gonna use colours to make my point a little more easy on the eyes.

Potentially out (+ Already Gone )

Tyler Myers ( trade )
OEL (Buyout)
Burroughs
Poolman(Injury)
Bear (ufa, But would like to keep)
Schenn (Traded)

D this year mostly —
Hughes + Schenn
Oel + Myers
Dermotte/depth + bear

What I think it will look like NEXT Season—

Hughes | UFA
UFA | Hronik
Dermott | Bear
Wolanin

Clearly we need to find two legit Top 4 D in FA / Trade or One of Wolanin need to be in our top 6, and just find one.

Gavrikov is the most obvious, Perfect fit.
Who else? Who knows?
If we continue to lose, Would you trade our 10th overall for a Top 4 D?

I’m not saying, it’s easy, I’m just saying what team is going to look completely different on the backend, over 60% of the D turned around potentially.

Update - So I just took a quick look at the USA market, here are some players that interest me big time, if we’re doing a retool.

Gavrikov, Orlov, Dumba, Severson, Schenn, and even Edler.

I don’t value all of them the same, I’m just throwing out names that are interesting to me

The problem is that you are making pretty huge assumptions with a Myers trade and an OEL buyout. Realistically, I don't see both happening.

Then you're making more BIG assumptions that we can sign two top 4 D through UFA on reasonable (?) deals without paying the premium price.

You are making too many assumptions... this isn't NHL 23.

If you're talking in general, top pairing D almost never get traded. You can find top six production from free agents outside of the NHL (Kuzmenko, Dadonov) etc. We've been trying to build a D for 8-10 years now and it still sucks.

Here's the list of legit top 4 UFA D this year:

Dumba
Orlov (dude's going to be 32 and wanting a massive deal, can't see us paying for him)
Ghost? (Doesn't fit our needs)
Klingberg? (Doesn't fit our needs)
Severson
Graves
Gavrikov

So if we're lucky, we have to outbid teams (players need to want to come here too, can't say Vancouver's a hot spot for UFAs right now) without paying TOO much of a premium (given we don't have that cap flexibility) to add 2 of the 7/8 top 4 D in UFA?

 

[CanucksSayEh]

D is harder to draft. There are just simply more forwards in the top rankings of players. The best toddlers are generally pushed to play C.

Draft a C, as we already have a 1-2 punch, and can afford to wait a bit. Trade for, and sign roster Dmen, then pick a bunch in the later rounds as well.

 

[Canucks LB]

The problem is that you are making pretty huge assumptions with a Myers trade and an OEL buyout. Realistically, I don't see both happening.

Then you're making more BIG assumptions that we can sign two top 4 D through UFA on reasonable (?) deals without paying the premium price.

You are making too many assumptions... this isn't NHL 23.

If you're talking in general, top pairing D almost never get traded. You can find top six production from free agents outside of the NHL (Kuzmenko, Dadonov) etc. We've been trying to build a D for 8-10 years now and it still sucks.

Here's the list of legit top 4 UFA D this year:

Dumba
Orlov (dude's going to be 32 and wanting a massive deal, can't see us paying for him)
Ghost? (Doesn't fit our needs)
Klingberg? (Doesn't fit our needs)
Severson
Graves
Gavrikov

So if we're lucky, we have to outbid teams (players need to want to come here too, can't say Vancouver's a hot spot for UFAs right now) without paying TOO much of a premium (given we don't have that cap flexibility) to add 2 of the 7/8 top 4 D in UFA?

I don’t think it’s as unlikely as you might think, actually, I think it’s pretty much a forgone conclusion we’re going to buy out oel, and trade myers, the moment we pretty much announced that we’re going to Retool.

There is no chance both of those guys are coming back, no chance in hell, I don’t see it happening.

Signing top 4 D is another story, I agree with you.

I will also say this, I keep going back to Dumba, I just feel he would really fit well with this group, and I don’t see him taking a massive contract, because he lost some opportunity this year.

But I wouldn’t go further than three years

 

[LordBacon]

Good D is hard to find

thats what she said

 

[JohnHodgson]

I don’t think it’s as unlikely as you might think, actually, I think it’s pretty much a forgone conclusion we’re going to buy out oel, and trade myers, the moment we pretty much announced that we’re going to Retool.

There is no chance both of those guys are coming back, no chance in hell, I don’t see it happening.

Signing top 4 D is another story, I agree with you.

I will also say this, I keep going back to Dumba, I just feel he would really fit well with this group, and I don’t see him taking a massive contract, because he lost some opportunity this year.

But I wouldn’t go further than three years

Easy to say as an armchair GM, but buying out OEL and then paying Myers' SB and then trading him away is going to cost AQ big bucks.

I don't think he'll do both... maybe just one.

 

[VanJack]

If you isolate this roster to just the forward group, this Canucks team would be good enough to be in the playoffs, or at least close to it.

Unfortunately their blueline is the most expensive and worst group in the entire NHL. Myers and OEL are past it--but earning $14m a season. Hughes is a legit top-pairing d-man, but his usual partner Ethan Bear would be a #5 on most NHL teams.

As for the rest, they're basically replacement level AHL-NHL 'tweeners. I suppose that's why their blew their draft brains out acquiring Hronek, who's a legit 3-4 d-man.

But if they bring most of the same blueliners back next season, they'll get the same results.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Easy to say as an armchair GM, but buying out OEL and then paying Myers' SB and then trading him away is going to cost AQ big bucks.

I don't think he'll do both... maybe just one.

I think they'll give OEL at least one more year. The buyout is very favourable for next season, but I don't see management being successful in getting Aqua to essentially pay $20M for nothing.

 

[kcunac]

In general good D are harder to find, but it’s also true that D are misvalued. Offensive D that aren’t good defenders are overvalued and may hurt their team whilst defensive D-man (that are not huge, highly drafted or RHD) are undervalued. So there are opportunities to get quality D, like as you mention Toews and Marino (and hopefully Hronek, who cost more than both, see overvaluation of offense). Good centres are hard to find but they are usually overpaid. Trochek seems like a pretty reasonable recent example so it’s possible. Wingers are easy to get.

So in sum, not sure which is harder to find, but probably the F vs. D distinction is not as relevant as Centre vs. RHD, for example.

 

[VanJack]

It really speaks volumes about how bad the Canucks blueline was this year; that they've actually improved with three Abbotsford Canucks in the lineup, playing big minutes.

OEL is shaping up as a huge dilemma for the Canucks. If he was playing 'hurt', and will be able to recover some of his form after a long off-season of rehab, than that's one thing. But if what we saw this year is as good as it's going to be going forward, then what?

This contract could make Louie Eriksson's deal look like the deal of the century by comparison.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

I would agree with most posters in this thread..A ‘balanced’ D is hard to accomplish..You need to blend PMD’s, defensively responsible D men, size ,youth and toughness all together

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

The Canucks D is a weird construction..OEL ,Hughes,Myers are all PMD’s ..and we just traded our only real D man to the Leafs…

I’m assuming that Hronek is another PMD..Pruning is in order.

 

[sting101]

I think they just blew the wad on Hronek. Cant be wasting more cap on this situation.

Top Pair: HUGHES BEAR - Hughes has matured to the point that he carries whoever is with him. Put him with Bear who at least has a good shot and can make something of the room he creates. The ice will be tilted because it always is with Hughes. Schenn had a decent year but without Hughes he's a depth guy that's slow as F.
out - SCHENN

2nd pair: OEL HRONEK - OEL will get one last year to get it together with a partner other than whatever terrible partner they have given him to date. Bear and him already produced good shot share results and if the plan is Hronek then it should be better. Just getting Myers and Schenn out of our top6 is big. Hronek should be fun to watch. Scouts better have hit this one right or my oh my it will be blood
out - MYERS

3rd pair: MIKKOLA MYERS - Mikkola is not a sexy pick up but he PKs and is a steady vet who can play 16-18 min. The key is he's cheap compared to the big names. Myers money will already be spoken for by the next off season (Hronek Pettersson Beauvillier Podkolzin) so all these proposals of paying to dump his salary are short sighted. Play him 16-18 min ask him to play nasty and keep it simple. Should be better without all the minutes wearing him down
out - STILLMAN

Depth Pair: WOLANIN LIVINGSTONE - Wolanin has been a nice puck mover he can challenge for ice time. Would be a challenge to OEL if he's not moving the puck adequately. Livingstone would be a nice addition and with his maturity should be able to help out of the gate. You can spot him in for Myers to keep him on his toes. Both should be able to play a significant amount of minutes if injuries occur.
out - DERMOTT BURROUGHS POOLMAN

Abby - LD - Brisebois Rathbone Truscott Jurmo RD - Juulsen Woo Johansson
out - Kalynuk Keeper

 

[RandV]

We’ve been retooling our defense for eight years bud.



Good D is hard to find (pause). Simple as that.

It actually isn't, just takes a bit of time and can be unpredictable. That was all Jim Benning. While lacking a truly top tier Norris calibre dman producing or finding quality dmen was actually a long term strength of the Canucks going back through Gillis, Nonis, Burke.