Cameron Diaz
Registered User
- Nov 19, 2013
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- 0
Ref Bias? Stats don't lie
- Thread starter Cameron Diaz
- Start date
Anyone want to count up the PP's for and against during those 16 games?
There's two refs nowadays but I'm always amazed in Chris Lee games how the other guy tries to keep up and calls cheesy chintsy penalties as well.
There's two refs nowadays but I'm always amazed in Chris Lee games how the other guy tries to keep up and calls cheesy chintsy penalties as well.
Cameron Diaz
Registered User
- Nov 19, 2013
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i dont have a PP count, but i would bet we have more time on the PK then PP, although as you said. The 'other guy' makes a lot of cheap calls to counter. (sometimes)
...OK, guys, we don't wanna start sounding like the Bruins...yes, Chris Lee is an idiot, but let's not go all Julien here...
Jacko95
Registered User
- Sep 19, 2012
- 2,971
- 18
Sorry guys, but if it was not for Chris Lee, Tampa would have lead 2-1 at the end of the 2nd period and he called tripping on the Bolts where no Lightning player was within reach of the guy that was "tripped".
Just because your guys lost their heads in the third period and took some really stupid penalties doesn't mean it's all on Chris Lee.
Just because your guys lost their heads in the third period and took some really stupid penalties doesn't mean it's all on Chris Lee.
You'd have to correct for other factors (strength of opposition, home/away etc) before jumping to conclusions, but yes, that's a stat line you want to look at when investigating outliers.
I find this fascinating... I have tried finding a sortable list of games that include the officials. None appears to exist or my google skills suck.
Short of going through one game log at a time, is there a quicker way to run a comparison?
Short of going through one game log at a time, is there a quicker way to run a comparison?
...OK, guys, we don't wanna start sounding like the Bruins...yes, Chris Lee is an idiot, but let's not go all Julien here...
THis site is pretty cool, a bit out of date, but still...
http://scoutingtherefs.com/nhl-referee-stats/
Looks like Peel is right in the middle of the pack when it comes to giving out penalities.
Gord Dwyer is the one you want if you are looking for lots of PPs and Kevin Pollock looks like more of an old school let'em play kind of ref. He has called 76 fewer penalties than Dwyer and just 21 less than Peel.
Also the Tonight's officials page is great
http://scoutingtherefs.com/category/tonights-officials/
For eg:
Philadelphia Flyers at St. Louis Blues – 8:00EDT
Referees:
Tim Peel #20
3.5 minor penalties per game
11.7 total PIM per game
Favors home team (14.5% more penalties called on road team)
Flyers are 1-5 this year when Peel works, with 5 straight losses.
http://scoutingtherefs.com/nhl-referee-stats/
Looks like Peel is right in the middle of the pack when it comes to giving out penalities.
Gord Dwyer is the one you want if you are looking for lots of PPs and Kevin Pollock looks like more of an old school let'em play kind of ref. He has called 76 fewer penalties than Dwyer and just 21 less than Peel.
Also the Tonight's officials page is great
http://scoutingtherefs.com/category/tonights-officials/
For eg:
Philadelphia Flyers at St. Louis Blues – 8:00EDT
Referees:
Tim Peel #20
3.5 minor penalties per game
11.7 total PIM per game
Favors home team (14.5% more penalties called on road team)
Flyers are 1-5 this year when Peel works, with 5 straight losses.
Blind Gardien
nexus of the crisis
I am not surprised that the record is so lopsided. I'm just surprised that it's only been 16 games? Really? It feels like more.
Anyway, he's a terrible ref, and I think other fanbases notice it too. Some of those stats are interesting, I wonder how carefully the NHL tracks things like that, they really should be all over it.
Anyway, he's a terrible ref, and I think other fanbases notice it too. Some of those stats are interesting, I wonder how carefully the NHL tracks things like that, they really should be all over it.
hockeyfan2k11
Registered User
- Jun 11, 2011
- 12,150
- 6
Chris Lee flat out stinks. But he stinks for both teams. Are we really going to complain about the reffing when
a) we had a goal scored against us that was incorrectly disallowed.
b) we got PPs for penalties that should not have been called (ie: Gallagher)
c) we flat out stunk in the 2nd and 3rd periods.
Stop blaming the refs and look at the team. You sound like Bruins fans.
a) we had a goal scored against us that was incorrectly disallowed.
b) we got PPs for penalties that should not have been called (ie: Gallagher)
c) we flat out stunk in the 2nd and 3rd periods.
Stop blaming the refs and look at the team. You sound like Bruins fans.
Cameron Diaz
Registered User
- Nov 19, 2013
- 177
- 0
I actually was going to post this after the TBAY game, but i thought i would get the "blamming the reffs" thing. So i waited to post the stat. It has nothing to do with the last game, The habs played terrible especially in the third and lost all composure. Its has everything to do with the overall picture. If Chris Lee calls our games in the Playoffs "were gonna have a bad time"
I despise the guy but lets be honest here, the last two games he was the official for us, he was as bad against them as he was for us, if not worse.
I hate the guy, not because of his bias(don't really believe he is tbh) but due to his incompetence at his job. I'm all for calling every clutch and grab, at least be certain you can tell with your eyes that you're calling the right penalty though. The guy is just way too liberal with the whistle, and this is coming from a guy who wants the officials to keep the whistle out.
It isn't bias when you see the guy make 3 bad calls against each team though, and even maybe more against the opponent. In the past imo it worked against us big time, but more recently I find it's been in our favor and we just haven't taken advantage of it.
I hate the guy, not because of his bias(don't really believe he is tbh) but due to his incompetence at his job. I'm all for calling every clutch and grab, at least be certain you can tell with your eyes that you're calling the right penalty though. The guy is just way too liberal with the whistle, and this is coming from a guy who wants the officials to keep the whistle out.
It isn't bias when you see the guy make 3 bad calls against each team though, and even maybe more against the opponent. In the past imo it worked against us big time, but more recently I find it's been in our favor and we just haven't taken advantage of it.
DAChampion
Registered User
- May 28, 2011
- 29,805
- 20,960
That isn't the way statistics works, sorry.
There are dozens (hundreds?) of reds in the NHL, so statistically it is to be expected that there will be a few outliers at the level of 2 standard deviations.
If you have 100 people a coin 10 times, a few of them will get heads only twice.
There are dozens (hundreds?) of reds in the NHL, so statistically it is to be expected that there will be a few outliers at the level of 2 standard deviations.
If you have 100 people a coin 10 times, a few of them will get heads only twice.
You're right that outliers are to be expected. And maybe Lee is just one of these 'normal' outliers.
There are still ways to probe a little more. Like compare Lee vs. us with Lee vs. anybody else. Again correcting for many other factors.
You may end up finding absolutely nothing, though.
WeThreeKings
Habs cup - its in the BAG
Blind Gardien
nexus of the crisis
The premise though is that these aren't equal-probability events in the first place, that it's _not_ a simple coin toss. There may or may not be "weighted dice". After probing a little more, the unfortunate next step is for us to have Lee ref 1 million games against us. I think I would rather just leave it classified as either a statistical outlier or an open question than find out the answer, given that.
considering that every refs are evaluated during the season to determine who will officiate during the playoffs, a better indicator is how often chris lee gain a spot in the playoffs: in fifteen years he's been in the nhl, he officiated in 33 games...
last game was just a demonstration of his blatant incompetence, but to be honest, he was bad for both teams...
i really think most refs do a good job most of the time, but i just don't get why lee still got a job in the nhl
here's the link: http://www.nhlofficials.com/member_listing.asp?member_id=2292
last game was just a demonstration of his blatant incompetence, but to be honest, he was bad for both teams...
i really think most refs do a good job most of the time, but i just don't get why lee still got a job in the nhl
here's the link: http://www.nhlofficials.com/member_listing.asp?member_id=2292
habfaninvictoria
Registered User
This thread sounds like one you'd see on the Bruins board, except that someone actually did the work to find stats as opposed to just spewing rhetoric.
These things do tend to work themselves out ... if we're 3-16 with one ref we're like to have better stats with others (we do have a winning record) .... are those refs then biased in our favour.
Let it be.... he sucks.... for everyone
These things do tend to work themselves out ... if we're 3-16 with one ref we're like to have better stats with others (we do have a winning record) .... are those refs then biased in our favour.
Let it be.... he sucks.... for everyone
Blind Gardien
nexus of the crisis
Well, it's only 16 games. I'm pretty sure everybody agrees he's a terrible ref and makes phantom calls on everyone. Yet, even before I knew the record was 3-13, I would cringe in dread everytime I heard he was going to ref our game, because I knew we've had some bad results from him. So somebody has to make the sacrifice and go through the video of those 16 games and see where his phantom calls stack up. The Tampa game was balanced, bad both ways, I think we all agree on that. What about the other 15?
Smokey Thompson
Registered User
You mean like a Markov chain? Pardon the pun, but it's the first time I've been able to use it.
InglewoodJack
Registered User
Chris Lee is a bad ref. I remember at the time that he waved off that Gomez goal a few years back, at that point he had reffed like 3 playoff games in 10 years or something ridiculously low. He's a bad ref and the nhl knows, but he's unionized.
