Prospect Info: Red Wings nineteen 1-2 round picks from last 5 drafts

[Henkka]

2019
- 1st, RD Moritz Seider, 6th overall
- 2nd RD Antti Tuomisto
- 2nd, F Robert Mastrosimone (rights released)
- 2nd, LD Albert Johansson

2020
- 1st, RW Lucas Raymond, 4th overall
- 2nd, LD William Wallinder, 32nd overall (feels like a 1st round pick at 32-team league)
- 2nd, F Theodor Niederbach, 51st overall
- 2nd, W Cross Hanas, 55th overall
(-3rd, LD Donovan Sebrango, 63rd overall) feels like a 2nd rounder at 32-team league, traded away)

2021
- 1st, LD Simon Edvinsson, 6th overall
- 1st, G Sebastian Cossa, 15th overall
- 2nd, LD Shai Buium, 36th overall

2022
- 1st, C Marco Kasper, 8th overall
- 2nd, W Dylan James, 40th overall
- 2nd, W Dmitri Buchelnikov, 52nd overall

2023
- 1st, C Nate Danielson, 9th overall
- 1st, RD Axel Sandin-Pellikka, 17th overall
- 2nd, G Trey Augustine, 41st overall
- 2nd, RD Andrew Gibson, 42nd overall
- 2nd, LD Brady Cleveland, 47th overall

I don't know has any other teams as many picks on same era. 5 Years of Yzerman on charge, 7 1st round picks and 12 2nd round picks. 19 picks on total, and 20 if you count Sebrango also "in", because 63.overall is basicly 2nd rounder at 32-team league.

If considering Wallinder 32.overall also as a 1st rounder, they clearly go after DEFENCE on 1st round.

4 defencemen, Seider, Wallinder, Edvinsson & Sandin-Pelikka. Could be future Top4. 2 lefties, 2 righties.
1 goalie in Cossa
2 Centers, Kasper and Danielson, Lefty and Righty
1 RH winger in Raymond

So those important positions, and with most valuable picks, they have gone very defence-heavy.

At second round, it still goes defence-heavy.
- 5-6 defencemen, Tuomisto, Johansson, Buium, Gibson, Cleveland (and Sebrango, if counting that 63.overall to 2nd round)
- 2 borderline Centers, Mastrosimone and Niederbach, other was released, and Niederbach development does not look good.
- 1 goalie in Augustine
- 3 wingers, Hanas, James, Buchelnikov

I'm fine that they go defence-heavy.

It's also no news for everybody, that you have to use the possibility to get good Centers on 1st round. You can still find pretty good wingers from 2nd round. Our 2nd round Centers are busting, but wingers developing ok.

Low round picks developing well (we have had 31 low-round picks in last 5 years)
- 2022, 4th round, C Amadeus Lombardi
- 2021, 3rd round, RW Carter Mazur
- 2019, 6th round, LW Elmer Söderblom

This is also nice to see happening. It will give us extra future line. There could proably be more, like another 3 guys, to have 20% hit rate. But those are so impossible to predict. Maybe Savage etc.

But it's good to see some help coming from down low, everything is not build on just those 1st-2nd round picks.

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[Hoog]

Steve has always said, hitting some later in the draft is really important. So, your list of Lambardi, Mazur, and Soder is good but I would add Brennan Ali, Anton Johannson, and the Dower-Nilsson boys as well. All, at least, have a chance IMO

 

[mikerooooose]

Cross Hanas is going to be legit too.

 

[DamonDRW]

Buchelnikov looks promising. He is getting the least attention here due to obvious reasons. A couple of times I've seen him he reminds a lightweight version of Ehlers.

 

[lilidk]

Buchelnikov looks promising. He is getting the least attention here due to obvious reasons. A couple of times I've seen him he reminds a lightweight version of Ehlers.

How strange all MHL and VHL games you can see on YouTube , you can watch his entire last season with HD quality. If you see last 2 drafts there's not Russian factor whatsoever. Maybe he is not so good as we thought he was at the draft .

 

[DamonDRW]

How strange all MHL and VHL games you can see on YouTube , you can watch his entire last season with HD quality. If you see last 2 drafts there's not Russian factor whatsoever. Maybe he is not so good as we thought he was at the draft .

Michkov went 7th. Talent wise he is on par with Bedard. Maybe slightly better. Phoenix's picks don't tell the story as they obviously want to postpone the influx of talent to their lineup.

The Russian factor is always there. Reasons are different though.

 

[raymond23]

What’s the hit rate on NHLers in the second round?

I like a lot of our 2nd rounders but there are also some really disappointing duds

 

[Tatar Shots]

What’s the hit rate on NHLers in the second round?

I like a lot of our 2nd rounders but there are also some really disappointing duds

2nd round picks have a 17% chance of playing 100 or more NHL games.

 

[Kronwalled55]

What’s the hit rate on NHLers in the second round?

I like a lot of our 2nd rounders but there are also some really disappointing duds

It feels like Steve is using the second round to take his biggest risks.

 

[Henkka]

2nd round picks have a 17% chance of playing 100 or more NHL games.

Kind of 1/6. But also there's small difference on early 2nds vs. late 2nds.

 

[Tatar Shots]

Kind of 1/6. But also there's small difference on early 2nds vs. late 2nds.

Likely not more than a couple percentage points. The bigger thing to consider is how many of those players who would count as a 'hit' for the 100 game or more mark are players who don't make any real NHL contributions.

From 2010 to 2017 the Wings drafted the following players who count as 'hits' for the 100 game or more mark in the 2nd round: Jarnkrok, Jurco, Ouellet, Frk, Bertuzzi, Smith (Givani), Hronek, Lindstrom.

Out of those 8 players, Bertuzzi and Hronek are the only ones who contribute to the top 6 / top4. Jarnkrok is a solid bottom 6 guy. 4 out of the other 5 fizzled out of the league without doing anything and Lindstrom is likely to do the same.

I'm not sure about the rest of the league, but just for fun sake, if you take Detroit's 25% top 6 / top 4 meaningful hit rate and multiply that by the chance of a 2nd round pick hitting the 100 game mark of 17%, you get the following:

0.25 x 0.17 = 0.0425%.

Making the chance of getting a top 6 forward or top 4 D from the second round 4.25%.

 

[Detroit Knights]

2019
- 1st, RD Moritz Seider, 6th overall
- 2nd RD Antti Tuomisto
- 2nd, F Robert Mastrosimone (rights released)
- 2nd, LD Albert Johansson

2020
- 1st, RW Lucas Raymond, 4th overall
- 2nd, LD William Wallinder, 32nd overall (feels like a 1st round pick at 32-team league)
- 2nd, F Theodor Niederbach, 51st overall
- 2nd, W Cross Hanas, 55th overall
(-3rd, LD Donovan Sebrango, 63rd overall) feels like a 2nd rounder at 32-team league, traded away)

2021
- 1st, LD Simon Edvinsson, 6th overall
- 1st, G Sebastian Cossa, 15th overall
- 2nd, LD Shai Buium, 36th overall

2022
- 1st, C Marco Kasper, 8th overall
- 2nd, W Dylan James, 40th overall
- 2nd, W Dmitri Buchelnikov, 52nd overall

2023
- 1st, C Nate Danielson, 9th overall
- 1st, RD Axel Sandin-Pellikka, 17th overall
- 2nd, G Trey Augustine, 41st overall
- 2nd, RD Andrew Gibson, 42nd overall
- 2nd, LD Brady Cleveland, 47th overall

I don't know has any other teams as many picks on same era. 5 Years of Yzerman on charge, 7 1st round picks and 12 2nd round picks. 19 picks on total, and 20 if you count Sebrango also "in", because 63.overall is basicly 2nd rounder at 32-team league.

If considering Wallinder 32.overall also as a 1st rounder, they clearly go after DEFENCE on 1st round.

4 defencemen, Seider, Wallinder, Edvinsson & Sandin-Pelikka. Could be future Top4. 2 lefties, 2 righties.
1 goalie in Cossa
2 Centers, Kasper and Danielson, Lefty and Righty
1 RH winger in Raymond

So those important positions, and with most valuable picks, they have gone very defence-heavy.

At second round, it still goes defence-heavy.
- 5-6 defencemen, Tuomisto, Johansson, Buium, Gibson, Cleveland (and Sebrango, if counting that 63.overall to 2nd round)
- 2 borderline Centers, Mastrosimone and Niederbach, other was released, and Niederbach development does not look good.
- 1 goalie in Augustine
- 3 wingers, Hanas, James, Buchelnikov

I'm fine that they go defence-heavy.

It's also no news for everybody, that you have to use the possibility to get good Centers on 1st round. You can still find pretty good wingers from 2nd round. Our 2nd round Centers are busting, but wingers developing ok.

Low round picks developing well (we have had 31 low-round picks in last 5 years)
- 2022, 4th round, C Amadeus Lombardi
- 2021, 3rd round, RW Carter Mazur
- 2019, 6th round, LW Elmer Söderblom

This is also nice to see happening. It will give us extra future line. There could proably be more, like another 3 guys, to have 20% hit rate. But those are so impossible to predict. Maybe Savage etc.

But it's good to see some help coming from down low, everything is not build on just those 1st-2nd round picks.

I think he has been going so defense heavy because our defense prospect pool the past years have been terrible. With that, you need to overstock to make sure you have a couple that pan out. Hopefully, they pan out to amazing players, but if they are solid, then that is the goal. Yzerman (and lalonde to an extent) has said that you need to build from the back first, so getting a top 6 defense core is what he is trying to get and I think he found it. If Wallinder/ALJO/ASP/Ed all pan out within this next year, I could see them picking more forwards.

Feels like we have a stocked cupboard of defense prospects now. Could probably use more goalies in the system, so I could see them drafting a few more in the top 3 rounds for the next couple years.

Someone else said it above, but I'll reiterate that right now, they have said that the later picks need to hit and with how we have been drafting, we really need them to hit. Lombardi, Mazur, and FA like Doucet (i hope he becomes something great tbh) would all be extremely important to get onto the team. We probably need one more top10 level forward (probably for the wing) in a draft to be comfortable with adding non-top6 worth players in there. But if lombardi and mazur are as good as we hope they are, then we might be good for a few years and just draft BPA regardless of position. You always want to be able to be in that position because your not being fully constrained like we have been the past few years.

I wonder if we weren't so constrained on the center depth position, would we have chosen Danielson? Moved back? or picked a Benson who could just move to the wing. I don't listen to the WWP but I decided to take a listen to one of their latest episodes with Ken Daniels and Daniels made a great comment that yeah, trading hronek and bertuzzi probably sucked, but that gave us the ability to get ASP and we potentially could be using the bertuzzi trade for Debrincat (obviously depends on if we use their pick or ours, then again, we would be guaranteed a 1st rounder next year regardless, maybe 2?).

So, I rambled, oh well. Not sure where I was going with all this, BUT I think I put out some good thoughts? lol.

 

[Christien]

Cross Hanas is going to be legit too.

He's somewhat under the radar, but he was so good in the A last season before he got injured. Expecting big things from him next season.

 

[jaster]

Me, waiting for just one more Hanas comment....

 

[19 for president]

Stevie knows that his best chance to build a contender without a top 3 pick is through defense. Top end dman are the most valuable asset in the league for trades too. So if he gets an extra asset or two he'll be able to trade from a position of power.

Overall fairly happy with his drafting outside of Cossa. Don't love goalies in the 1st. I would have rather gambled on a forward.

 

[Henkka]

Likely not more than a couple percentage points. The bigger thing to consider is how many of those players who would count as a 'hit' for the 100 game or more mark are players who don't make any real NHL contributions.

I would not use that 100-game mark for any analyze.

I once studied these game amounts for prospects, and found out that 320-game mark (4 full NHL seasons) is much better indicator for a successful draft pick. (you can drop that 33% for goalies)

Because, somehow, after that limit, players are starting to have 500-1000 game careers. And that's a successful pick.

100 games is nothing. It's like determing Zadina as successful pick when he is a total failure.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Me, waiting for just one more Hanas comment....

Me, ready to educate you:

I think Hanas has a chance to play in the NHL one day. He could become something like a poor man’s Killorn. I don’t think he’s got the same strong shot as Killorn but Hanas does a good job of winning puck battles in the corner and skates well enough as a winger. Maybe a 30ish point guy?

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Robert Mastrosimone was released? Why?

 

[Pavels Dog]

I'm curious what happens with Tuomisto.

 

[jaster]

Me, ready to educate you:

I think Hanas has a chance to play in the NHL one day. He could become something like a poor man’s Killorn. I don’t think he’s got the same strong shot as Killorn but Hanas does a good job of winning puck battles in the corner and skates well enough as a winger. Maybe a 30ish point guy?

Can't skate. Won't make it.

Robert Mastrosimone was released? Why?

Where'd you see that?

Either way, the Wings were set to lose his rights on August 15, which was inevitable because he plans to test free agency. He wasn't going to sign with Detroit regardless.

I'm curious what happens with Tuomisto.

Can't skate. Won't make it.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Can't skate. Won't make it.

Thought he moved better than previously at dev camp. I don't have high hopes but it would be interesting to see him in AHL.

 

[Frk It]

Me, waiting for just one more Hanas comment....

Little do you know that if Hanas plays more than 50 games in the NHL I paid @SoupNazi to change your avatar to a picture of Justin Abdelkader at Michigan State…

 

[SoupNazi]

Little do you know that it Hanas plays more than 50 games in the NHL I paid @SoupNazi to change your avatar to a picture of Justin Abdelkader at Michigan State…

And bad news, @jaster. Unlike your check, his was good.

 

[jaster]

Thought he moved better than previously at dev camp. I don't have high hopes but it would be interesting to see him in AHL.

I do look forward to seeing all these lower-ranked prospects this season. Always fun when one of them beats the odds and hits.

Little do you know that it Hanas plays more than 50 games in the NHL I paid @SoupNazi to change your avatar to a picture of Justin Abdelkader at Michigan State…

I will quit this damn forum

 

[lilidk]

2nd round picks have a 17% chance of playing 100 or more NHL games.

We probably will have about 10% of our second round making 100games . Mabey AJ and Wallinder