Red Fisher Conference - Round 1 - Portland Penguins (4) vs Orillia Terriers (5)

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Portland Penguins (4 Seed)

Home: Veterans Memorial Coliseum
Portland, OR

Coach: Tommy Ivan
Captain: Mario Lemieux
Alternates: Chris Pronger, Lionel Hitchman

John LeClair - Mario Lemieux - Jarome Iginla
Anatoli Firsov - Vladimir Petrov - Bryan Hextall
Jiri Holik - Jacques Lemaire - Didier Pitre
Vincent Damphousse - Darryl Sittler - Ace Bailey

Buck Boucher - King Clancy
Chris Pronger - Rob Blake
Lionel Hitchman - Terry Harper

Bernie Parent
Hugh Lehman

Extra Skaters: Dave Burrows, Pete Mahovlich, Jean Pronovost

PP1:
John LeClair - Mario Lemieux - Jarome Iginla
Rob Blake - Chris Pronger

PP2:
Didier Pitre - Darryl Sittler - Bryan Hextall
Anatoli Firsov - King Clancy

PK1:
Vladimir Petrov - Ace Bailey
Lionel Hitchman - Chris Pronger

PK2:
Jiri Holik - Anatoli Firsov
Rob Blake - Terry Harper


VS


Orillia Terriers (5 Seed)

Toe Blake

Frank Mahovlich - Bobby Clarke "C" - Gordie Drillon
Jamie Benn - Duke Keats - Patrick Kane
Woody Dumart - Norm Ullman - Claude Provost
Tony Leswick - Ryan Kesler - Wayne Cashman

Zdeno Chara "A" - Eddie Shore
Roman Josi - Shea Weber "A"
Babe Pratt - Bob Baun

Turk Broda
Hap Holmes

Spares:

Phil Watson, C/RW
Ken Randall, D/RW/C
Jack Marshall, D/C/LW

PP1: Clarke-Drillon-Mahovlch-Kane-Shore
PP2: Ullman-Keats-Benn-Josi-Weber

PK1:Kesler-Provost-Chara-Baun
PK2:Ullman-Dumart-Weber-Shore

Click to read more...

 

[RustyRazor]

Tough match-up for my squad right out of the gate. I don't know how/feel comfortable arguing these things. Portland has the best player, hopefully that carries the day. If anyone wants to stick up for my team, thanks. If not, I'll let the chips fall where they may.

 

[Dreakmur]

Tough match-up for my squad right out of the gate. I don't know how/feel comfortable arguing these things. Portland has the best player, hopefully that carries the day. If anyone wants to stick up for my team, thanks. If not, I'll let the chips fall where they may.

You don't have to attack my team, it that's what makes you uncomfortable. If you think your team is really good at certain things, make sure the voters know.

Good luck!

 

[Sturminator]

This is easily the most interesting series of the round for me, and also the hardest for me to predict or comment on...very different concepts, both executed well. What I see:

1. Can Duke Keats defend Mario? Keats was a strong defensive player, but Mario is the kind of guy who can and will attack any weakness, and I don't think slow-footed checkers are going to have much success against him.

2. Blake is an obvious advantage for Orillia, but both teams have good coach/roster synergy.

3. Portland's forwards are very physical, but Orillia's blueline is well-suited for a physical game.

 

[Dreakmur]

2. Blake is an obvious advantage for Orillia, but both teams have good coach/roster synergy.

I'm not even sure I know what kind of coach Ivan is.

1. Can Duke Keats defend Mario? Keats was a strong defensive player, but Mario is the kind of guy who can and will attack any weakness, and I don't think slow-footed checkers are going to have much success against him.

No he can't, and he isn't expected to. Even without the benefit of home ice, I can't imagine he'd see much of Mario.

Keats is by far my weakest defensive centre, and he's still above average.

3. Portland's forwards are very physical, but Orillia's blueline is well-suited for a physical game.

I don't see this very physical aspect of Portland's forward group. Big and strong, sure.

Outside Hextall, Iginla, and maybe Sittler, I don't see much aggressive physical play going on.

 

[Sturminator]

I don't see this very physical aspect of Portland's forward group. Big and strong, sure.

...and willing to fight for the puck. Portlands forwards are the sort that could grind down a soft defense through puck possession in tight spaces, but Orillia is not that defense.

 

[VanIslander]

I am not at all conflicted because I had one of these ranked 3rd in the regular season but 1A/1B in its conference for the postseason whereas the other I had dead last and thought it fatally flawed.

 

[The Macho King]

I gotta say - Portland's top line is a beast, and I think of the 18 teams would have a field day with the top pairing of ~15 of them. Unfortunate match up to go against one of the few top pairs they can't really lean on from a physical standpoint.

That being said - I like their chances a lot more against the second and third pairs.

 

[Sturminator]

I feel like Pittsburgh should switch its "defensive pairs" on the powerplay. Why not have Firsov - Clancy on the 1st unit over Blake - Pronger?

 

[DannyGallivan]

What stands out for me in this series:

Portland:

Mario Lemieux – obviously having one of the “Big Four of All Time” is a big advantage, but it is a team game… does he have support? Yes he does! Jerome Iginla and Leclair on the wings give that line the size, toughness and scoring touch that will make them very difficult to handle.

I like the second line as well, with Firsov, one of the greatest Soviets of all time, and Petrov having instant chemistry.

The underrated Jacques Lemaire, one of the greatest two-way centres ever, may be the unexpected difference maker in the playoffs for Portland, particularly if teams load up against the Lemieux line defensively.

Fourth line has that ability to score again, but perhaps they’re a little soft and not particularly defensive-minded. Could be exploited.

I like the defense… King Clancy on the first pairing and Pronger (who I don’t think gets enough credit for just how dominant he was) on the second pairing is solid.

As with a lot of teams in the playoffs, it comes down to goaltending. Bernie Parent was a very shrewd move, as the two-time Conn Smythe winner was dominant against some very high scoring teams during the Flyer’s Cup years. He will be a difference maker.



The Terriers

Mahovlich provides the playoff scoring, Clarke is probably the best leader in the entire league, and Drillion led the playoffs in scoring twice – solid first line… although obviously a drop off from Portland’s first line.

Ultimately, I see The Terrier’s strengths in the physicality of their defense… and while their fourth line aren’t as much of a threat to score as some others, they’ll wear down some lines.

The highlight of the Terriers' entire roster is the Chara/Shore pairing… perhaps the one pair that could greatly limit Portland’s first line. I like the overall depth of the Terriers’ defense more than Portland's as well.

In net, Orillia has a great playoff goalkeeper in chubby Turk Broda, which negates Portland’s net advantage to a point.

And let's not forget Toe Blake. With a resume like his, it may put the Terriers over the top.


Conclusion: At the risk of over simplifying things, it comes down to the Lemieux line versus the Shore defensive pairing. I think the Lemieux line will not be able to be shut down totally, and his wingers are tough enough to at least compete with the lumber they'll get from Chara and Shore. Also, look out for Portland's power play (and with Kesler and Cashman on Orillia, they'll get plenty of chances). I think Orillia’s defensive corps can keep the rest of Portland’s forwards somewhat in check, but this has the makings of a seven game series.

 

[Sturminator]

We should probably not ignore that Lemieux's offensive dominance is tilted in favor of the power play, where he is arguably the greatest player in history (even including Wayne). This is one of the reasons why I suggested stacking Portland's 1st unit powerplay.

Even-strength VsX

As requested for the ATD, here's even-strength VsX. I'm posting this here (rather than the ATD forum) as I'm sure there are undrafteds included here. Disclaimers: All the ES numbers were taken from Overpass's spreadsheet, and the yearly benchmarks were taken from Sprague Cleghorn's post. I...

hfboards.mandatory.com

In terms of even-strength scoring, only Phil Esposito falls further (among elite players) with respect to his overall VsX production.

I think this makes the comparison of Portland's 1st unit PP vs. Orillia's 1st unit PK all the more important.

 

[VanIslander]

F 4th lines & 3rd pairings (6-8 minutes a game).

Compare the number of PLAYOFF WARRIORS! And chemistry w.r.t. that.

9 to 6.

 

[Dreakmur]

Portland:

Mario Lemieux – obviously having one of the “Big Four of All Time” is a big advantage, but it is a team game… does he have support? Yes he does! Jerome Iginla and Leclair on the wings give that line the size, toughness and scoring touch that will make them very difficult to handle.

I like the second line as well, with Firsov, one of the greatest Soviets of all time, and Petrov having instant chemistry.

The underrated Jacques Lemaire, one of the greatest two-way centres ever, may be the unexpected difference maker in the playoffs for Portland, particularly if teams load up against the Lemieux line defensively.

Fourth line has that ability to score again, but perhaps they’re a little soft and not particularly defensive-minded. Could be exploited.

I like the defense… King Clancy on the first pairing and Pronger (who I don’t think gets enough credit for just how dominant he was) on the second pairing is solid.

As with a lot of teams in the playoffs, it comes down to goaltending. Bernie Parent was a very shrewd move, as the two-time Conn Smythe winner was dominant against some very high scoring teams during the Flyer’s Cup years. He will be a difference maker.

Leclair-Lemieux-Iginla is one of the best 1st lines in the draft, no doubt about that.

Why do Firsov and Petrov get instant chemistry? Do all Canadians get instant chemistry too?

The defense looks pretty meh.

Bernie Parent is one of the worst starting goalies in this draft.

The Terriers

Mahovlich provides the playoff scoring, Clarke is probably the best leader in the entire league, and Drillion led the playoffs in scoring twice – solid first line… although obviously a drop off from Portland’s first line.

Ultimately, I see The Terrier’s strengths in the physicality of their defense… and while their fourth line aren’t as much of a threat to score as some others, they’ll wear down some lines.

The highlight of the Terriers' entire roster is the Chara/Shore pairing… perhaps the one pair that could greatly limit Portland’s first line. I like the overall depth of the Terriers’ defense more than Portland's as well.

In net, Orillia has a great playoff goalkeeper in chubby Turk Broda, which negates Portland’s net advantage to a point.

And let's not forget Toe Blake. With a resume like his, it may put the Terriers over the top.

The first line is pretty average offensively. I suppose that's pretty much a given when the team's best offensive forward plays on the second line. Orillia pretty much spread the offense through 3 lines. Adding up all their vs.X scores, the lines come out with scores of 264.9, 266.0, and 262.3 respectively.

I think the "weakness" of Jamie Benn on a second line can be measured against Bryan Hextall Sr. here. Both short-peak power forwards with mediocre play-off resumes. I'm not sure they shouldn't be considered equals.

In net, Orillia has a great playoff goalkeeper in chubby Turk Broda, which negates Portland’s net advantage to a point.

Wait, what? Broda is clearly superior to Parent.

Conclusion: At the risk of over simplifying things, it comes down to the Lemieux line versus the Shore defensive pairing. I think the Lemieux line will not be able to be shut down totally, and his wingers are tough enough to at least compete with the lumber they'll get from Chara and Shore. Also, look out for Portland's power play (and with Kesler and Cashman on Orillia, they'll get plenty of chances). I think Orillia’s defensive corps can keep the rest of Portland’s forwards somewhat in check, but this has the makings of a seven game series.

Mario Lemieux might be the best PP forward of all time, but Leclair and Iginla weren't particularly good on the PP. Blake and Pronger is a pretty weak on the point as well.

As I see the match-ups:

Coaching - big advantage for Orillia
Goaltending - advantage for Orillia

First Line - big advantage for Portland
Second Line - pretty even
Third Line - big advantage for Orillia
Fourth Line - advantage for Portland (I do question what role they will play)

First Pair - big advantage for Orillia
Second Pair - advantage for Portland
Third Pair - advantage for Orillia

 

[Dreakmur]

We should probably not ignore that Lemieux's offensive dominance is tilted in favor of the power play, where he is arguably the greatest player in history (even including Wayne). This is one of the reasons why I suggested stacking Portland's 1st unit powerplay.

Even-strength VsX

As requested for the ATD, here's even-strength VsX. I'm posting this here (rather than the ATD forum) as I'm sure there are undrafteds included here. Disclaimers: All the ES numbers were taken from Overpass's spreadsheet, and the yearly benchmarks were taken from Sprague Cleghorn's post. I...

hfboards.mandatory.com

In terms of even-strength scoring, only Phil Esposito falls further (among elite players) with respect to his overall VsX production.

I think this makes the comparison of Portland's 1st unit PP vs. Orillia's 1st unit PK all the more important.

Lemieux is better on the PP. Leclair and Iginla worse.

 

[DannyGallivan]

Bernie Parent is one of the worst starting goalies in this draft.

I don't see how you can say a two-time dominant Conn Smythe trophy winner will be awful in the playoffs.

 

[Dreakmur]

I don't see how you can say a two-time dominant Conn Smythe trophy winner will be awful in the playoffs.

It's not about him being bad. It's about him being in the ATD. There's 18 teams, and Parent might not even be one of the top-18 goalies.

 

[The Macho King]

I don't see how you can say a two-time dominant Conn Smythe trophy winner will be awful in the playoffs.

That's the tricky thing with this project. You're not getting "Peak" Parent. You're getting prime Parent. The next three years of playoff disappointments - where Parent was sub .900 each series - has to be a consideration. Obviously you know what you get at his best, but overall his resume is on the thinner side w/r/t playoffs. But the highs are high.

I definitely don't think he is better than Broda though, playoffs or no. In 50 and 51 he gives up a total of 19 goals in 15 games, and backstopped his teams to 5 total Cups. Strong teams with strong defensive systems, yes - but that is also true of Parent. And it's not like Parent was doing it in a much more competitive league than Toronto was at the time. Yeah there were more teams, but with the exception of Philly (and to a lesser extent NYI and Buffalo), none of them were worth a damn.

 

[Dreakmur]

Do I have to spend time arguing for Orillia’s blueline?

Shore is quite a bit better than Clancy.
Chara is better than Pronger.
Weber is a little better than Blake.
Josi and Boucher are pretty even…. Until Josi gets his second Norris this year!
Pratt is better than Hitchman.
Baun and Harper are basically equal.

 

[VanIslander]

PLEASE... Guys...
Explain...

Duke Keats in a top 6 role in an 18-team draft?

Buck Boucher on a top pairing in a small draft?

Both teams have elephants in the room.

 

[Dreakmur]

PLEASE... Guys...
Explain...

Duke Keats in a top 6 role in an 18-team draft?

Buck Boucher on a top pairing in a small draft?

Both teams have elephants in the room.

Duke Keats isn’t in a top-6 role. He’s probably the 9th forward, and certainly the 3rd center. Orillia has 3 pretty equal scoring lines, but Ullman will play more than Keats most games.

If we’re just looking at lines, Keats is better than Petrov, right?

 

[VanIslander]

Uh...

 

[Sturminator]

If we’re just looking at lines, Keats is better than Petrov, right?

In a vacuum, I prefer Petrov.

 

[VanIslander]

Both 2nd line centers are BASEMENT performers in a small all-time draft league.

Move on...

 

[Dreakmur]

In a vacuum, I prefer Petrov

I’ve got them about equal offensively and defensively, but Keats brings toughness for a slight edge.

 

[Dreakmur]

Both 2nd line centers are BASEMENT performers in a small all-time draft league.

Move on...

Ice time is more complex than a simple lineup chart. Norm Ullman plays more than Duke Keats. Patrick Kane plays more than Gordie Drillon. Chris you Pronger will play more then George Boucher.