Red Fisher Conference Prelim Round - Trail Smoke Eaters vs Detroit Red Wings

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Trail Smoke Eaters

General Manager: Velociraptor
Home Venue: Cominico Arena

Head Coach: Pat Quinn
Assistant Coach: Emile Francis
Captain: Wayne Gretzky
Assistant Captains: Georges Boucher, Paul Kariya

ROSTER

Michel Goulet - Wayne Gretzky - Bernie Geoffrion
Paul Kariya - Bobby Smith - Mike Gartner
Marty Pavelich - Phil Goyette - Cecil Dillon
Ab McDonald - Craig MacTavish - Bruce MacGregor

Bill Quackenbush - Georges Boucher
Allan Stanley - Glen Harmon
Jack Portland - Dollard St-Laurent

Gump Worsley
Gerry Cheevers

Spares:
Tumba Johansson, C
Al MacAdam, LW/RW
Clem Loughlin, D

POWERPLAY

PP1: Michel Goulet - Wayne Gretzky - Mike Gartner - Georges Boucher - Bernie Geoffrion
PP2: Paul Kariya - Bobby Smith - Cecil Dillon - Allan Stanley - Bill Quackenbush

PENALTY KILL

PK1: Craig MacTavish - Marty Pavelich - Allan Stanley - Bill Quackenbush
PK2: Wayne Gretzky - Bruce MacGregor - Jack Portland - Glen Harmon
PK3: Phil Goyette - Ab McDonald - Allan Stanley - Bill Quackenbush

VS

Detroit Red Wings

Coach: Scotty Bowman
Captain: Jacques Lemaire

Alexander Yakushev - Syl Apps Sr - Bill Guerin
Gary Roberts - Sidney Crosby(A)- Rick Tocchet
Nick Metz - Evgeni Malkin - Boris Mayorov
John Madden - Jacques Lemaire(C) - Tomas Holmstrom
Ryan Getzlaf
Jiri Sejba

Dallas Smith - Eddie Shore
Zinetula Bilyaletdinov - Rob Blake(A)
Sandis Ozolinsh - Oldrich "Olin" Machac
Ed Jovanovski
Erik Karlsson

Tim Thomas
Göran Högosta

PP1:
Yakushev - Apps - Crosby
Blake - Shore

PP2:
Roberts/Guerin - Malkin - Holmstrom
Ozolinsh - Machac



PK1:
Madden - Lemaire
Shore - Machac

PK2:
Metz - Crosby
Blake - Bilyaletdinov​

Click to read more...

 

[Velociraptor]

First and foremost: best of luck to you, Reds.

Few things to kick off the discussion:
- The Red Wings possess perhaps the best centre depth in the entire league by a fair margin.
- That being said, they also have the weakest wingers, defensemen and goaltending IMHO.
- With the best coach of all time behind the bench, Bowman should be able to get production from his players out of this interesting lineup.

If Reds is here to discuss, I would echo Eagle's reccomendation to move the lines around:

Alex Yakushev - Syl Apps - Bill Guerin - Unchanged
Evgeni Malkin - Sidney Crosby - Rick Tocchet - Better O player with Crosby, know each other well. Could put Mayorov instead of Tocchet, but Tocchet will bring fear to opposing forwards who might want to take liberty on Crosby
John Madden - Jacques Lemaire - Nick Metz - A true shutdown line. Metz is a 'potent' goalscorer, so you don't completely waste Lemaire offensive output
Gary Roberts - Ryan Getzlaf - Boris Mayorov - Some crash&bang, excellent offensive output for a 4th line

 

[Velociraptor]

Goaltending:

I truly believe this may be the biggest hole on the Red Wings' roster, especially where they do not have a particularly strong defensive corps.

Tim Thomas is a Conne Smythe winner, and played an integral and possibly the biggest part in the Bruins' 2011 Championship. Outside of his Cup year, he failed to make it out of the first round all but one other time during his incredibly short career.

His numbers are pretty good, but he's only been in four post-seasons, making it extremely difficult to judge his value. It's an obscure comparison, but Thomas in the playoffs may be as good as Erik Karlsson in the regular season. One exceptional year, a decent year, and his rookie season.

Thomas doesn't have that impressive of a career to be a legitimate ATD starter considering his extremely short longevity. I think with a tighter defensive unit, he may be in a better position, but I think he is by a considerable margin the weakest starting goaltender in the league.

Hogosta? I can't say I know a whole lot, but the guy had a losing record in the Central Hockey League, and had an 8.29 GAA !!! through 36 games with Frolunda in 1984. In a series where a backup would be very valuable to your team, I think Hogosta is a double negative and hurts your team. He has an incredibly lacklustre resume for the ATD.

Not much to be said besides Gump Worsley is a good, not great goaltender. He won four Stanley Cups all with a GAA of under 2.27, going as low as 1.68

I don't think we'll be seeing Cheevers this series, unless all hell breaks loose. But he is also an extremely reputable playoff goaltender who has one of the best playoff resumes among netminders in the ATD.

And with that, I'll conclude - Moderate Advantage: Trail

 

[bluesfan94]

Although Tim Thomas isn't one of the better goalies over the regular season in the ATD, he does have quite a playoff resumé, so that'll a plus to the Red Wings' standing in my eyes compared to the regular season.

 

[Velociraptor]

Coaching:

Not a lot to be said here.

To reiterate what I said in my introductory post, Bowman is the best coach of all time. And despite the lack of chemistry throughout the Red Wings' lines and pairings, he will be able to generate an effective game plan.

Pat Quinn was a players' coach, who could also be a strategist. He'll be calling most of the shots, and getting the most out of his offensively fluent lineup. Emile Francis is a tactician, and be the X's and O's guy. He'll also specialize is creating effective tactics and strategies, while being in charge of line matching, something Quinn did not overly advocate.

Bowman is by far the best coach, but the tandem of Quinn/Francis is very fitting for our lineup.

However, Advantage: Detroit, I think there is a huge chemistry issue for Detroit, and if it could be slightly corrected I think Bowman has much more of a part to play.

 

[Reds4Life]

Hey Velociraptor, I like your team. Gonna be fun playing against Gretz.

I don't have much time to discuss this series today or tomorrow, but I have the whole Wednesday afternoon+night set aside for this, so I'll post my comments then. I will also mix up the lines a bit.

Cheers

 

[Velociraptor]

First Lines:

I think we can instantly concede that Gretzky has a vastly superior edge to Crosby, who is a decent #1 centre.

Like one of my earlier points, I believe that Detroit's wingers are among the weaker in the league. It was the price they paid for such tremendous centre depth. Yakushev is probably best suited as a 2nd line winger, and boasts a nice, but unspectacular scoring resume. Tocchet adds some sandpaper and physicality to the line, which makes it a little stronger than the initial.

Michel Goulet and Bernie Geoffrion are far superior to their counterparts, and all three hold a substantial edge over the Detroit Red Wings first unit.

Moderate Advantage: Trail

 

[Velociraptor]

Hey Velociraptor, I like your team. Gonna be fun playing against Gretz.

I don't have much time to discuss this series today or tomorrow, but I have the whole Wednesday afternoon+night set aside for this, so I'll post my comments then. I will also mix up the lines a bit.

Cheers

Great, I'll hold off my analysis until you're able to give some input. I would rather wait and use your revised lineup to use comparison.

Best of luck man.

 

[Reds4Life]

OK so yesterday I had the time, but unstable connection stopped me. However, I typed it all out in Notepad, so here it is:


Lines:
Gary Roberts - Syl Apps Sr - Bill Guerin
Alexander Yakushev - Sidney Crosby(A) - Rick Tocchet
Nick Metz - Evgeni Malkin - Boris Mayorov
John Madden - Jacques Lemaire(C) - Jiri Sejba
Tomas Holmstrom
Ryan Getzlaf

Dallas Smith - Eddie Shore
Zinetula Bilyaletdinov - Rob Blake(A)
Sandis Ozolinsh - Ed Jovanovski
Erik Karlsson
Oldrich "Olin" Machac

Tim Thomas
Göran Högosta


Lines 1 - 3 are scoring lines (all almost equally skilled) and will play roughly the same amount of minutes. All three lines will play PP as needed (i.e. the hottest line will be given the first chance on a PP). Holmstrom might be used on PP from time to time.

Line 4 is a defensive line, and will also do most of the PKing.

Eddie Shore is easily the best defenseman in the series and will be heavily relied on.
He'll be accompanied by Dallas Smith most of the time (this guy played with Orr, and Shore is the closest thing to Orr in terms of style there is).

Rest of the defenseman will play roughly the same minutes, with Blake getting extra time on PP.

Scotty Bowman is the most important person on my team. He's the leader of my team.
As a GM, I want my team to play up tempo game with very short shifts, thus getting the advantage over the opposition as the series goes on. My team is fairly physical and has puck winner, playmaker and a scorer on each of the first three lines.

Eddie Shore will be out on the ice for half the game on average, and he WILL dictate the game when he's on.

I believe Tim Thomas is the best goalie in the series, though he's not gonna make a difference.

I will not go over your team or do head2head line comparisons, Velociraptor, since I firmly believe that the strategy or lines you deploy are irrelevant - my team will play in a certain way regardless of the final result.

I like my team this year and I think I could take your team down in a real series

Best of luck and enjoy!

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Reds, how do you think Bowman would have the team play against Wayne Gretzky?

 

[Velociraptor]

Second Lines:

With Trail having perhaps one of the weaker second line centres in the draft in Bobby Smith, he is still flanked by two high scoring wingers that can thrive off the playmaking capabilities of Smith.

Apps is a great second line centre, he'll do well here. He is the best player of both lines. That being said Paul Kariya is an elite second-liner and is a offensive force to be reckoned with. He is in a position to succeed with a similar line structure than his situation in Anaheim, although dealing with an inferior right winger who plays a similar game to Selanne and a centre who is exponentially better than Steve Rucchin.

Gary Roberts I think is vastly overrated. Below are the VsX 10 best weighted seasons between him and contemporary Mike Gartner.

Gartner 66.8
Prentice 66.3
Taylor 66.3
Aurie 66.2
(undrafted) 66.0
Propp 65.5
Wharram 65.1
Shutt 64.8
Gaborik 64.6
Nolan 64.4
R. Martin 64.2
Doan 64.0
J. Ward 62.8
Robert 62.2
Stevens 61.8
Verbeek 61.8
G. Stewart 61.7
Cashman 61.0
Litzenberger 60.9
Guerin 60.9
Northcott 60.2
Bauer 60.1
Hadfield 60.1
Nevin 60.0
Pronovost 59.9
K. Nilsson 59.8
Armstrong 59.5
Roberts 59.3

Gartner, although not exceptionally better, ranks much higher above Roberts. Roberts has also been known to be a grinder which is a nice attribute. But considering what I've uncovered in my bio of Gartner being less of a one-way player than what was initially perceived, I don't understand why he goes below Roberts, not to mention he is incredibly injury-prone.

Smith vs. Guerin, this is another advantageous offensive comparison for weighted best seven years.

181 | Bobby Smith | 69.1
182 | Sid Smith | 69.1
183 | Jimmy Ward | 69
184 | Gus Bodnar | 68.7
185 | Bill Barber | 68.6
186 | Camille Henry | 68.6
187 | Miroslav Satan | 68.6
188 | Olli Jokinen | 68.5
189 | Mike Gartner | 68.5
190 | Robert Lang | 68.3
191 | Scott Gomez | 68.1
192 | Ace Bailey | 68.1
193 | Dean Prentice | 68
194 | Steve Sullivan | 68
195 | Martin Straka | 68
196 | Pit Martin | 67.9
197 | Craig Janney | 67.9
198 | Kevin Stevens | 67.8
199 | Jason Allison | 67.2
200 | Brian Propp | 67
201 | Garry Unger | 67
202 | Syl Apps | 66.9
203 | Owen Nolan | 66.9
204 | Claude Provost | 66.9
205 | Butch Goring | 66.7
206 | Art Jackson | 66.7
207 | Vic Stasiuk | 66.5
208 | Peter McNab | 66.5
209 | Mike Ribeiro | 66.4
210 | Petr Nedved | 66.4
211 | Shane Doan | 66.3
212 | Fred Stanfield | 66.2
213 | Glen Murray | 66.2
214 | Pierre Larouche | 66.1
215 | Art Chapman | 66
216 | Alex Zhamnov | 65.9
217 | Charlie Simmer | 65.5
218 | Wilf Paiement | 65.4
219 | Dennis Hull | 65.2
220 | Johnny Peirson | 65.2
221 | Joe Carveth | 65.2
222 | Murray Oliver | 65.1
223 | Petr Sykora | 65.1
224 | Barry Pederson | 65
225 | Kirk Muller | 65
226 | Wayne Cashman | 65
227 | Walt Tkaczuk | 64.9
228 | Red Berenson | 64.9
229 | Brian Bellows | 64.9
230 | Phil Housley | 64.8
231 | Cory Stillman | 64.7
232 | Grant Warwick | 64.7
233 | Ryan Getzlaf | 64.6
234 | Neal Broten | 64.5
235 | Bill Guerin | 64.5

Not a huge difference, but advantageous none the less. Smith also brings defensive ability to the line, Guerin was known as a two-way player but only had one Selke vote in his entire career which doesn't suggest much. Guerin is extremely bargain basement as a top-six winger. He was a decent ES scorer with 4 seasons of 25+ ES goals, but he is weak among second line wingers.

Advantage: Detroit, Apps holds a more significant advantage over Kariya than the advantages Gartner and Smith hold. However, Trail's line works very well in transition.

 

[Velociraptor]

Third Lines:

This has the making of a matchup line besides the fact Malkin is centering the line. Metz is a good defensive winger who can shadow the right side. Mayorov just seemed tough, didn't necessarily have defensive value, but was tough.

Cecil Dillon is a checking line player who was exceptionally quick and was a great goal-scorer. Malkin is one of the best in the NHL, based on offense he holds the advantage over Dillon although he is extremely careless in his own end and doesn't belong on a defensive line.

Metz was a decent goal scorer who had defensive value, Marty Pavelich is known as one of the best checking line players in NHL history. He also chipped in timely offense. Pavelich is better at his position in this situation.

Phil Goyette was a tremendous two-way centre who's play-making ability was a great asset. He has a strong goal-scorer on his right wing that makes a very nice connection. Mayorov seemed to excel in the pre-Summit years which was a weaker era, so its hard to gauge how good he was on a larger scale. Goyette is solid defensively and offensively, and holds a large advantage on Mayorov.

Advantage: Trail, we possess a strong checking unit that can matchup with any lines' top scoring units that is a huge scoring threat at even strength. Detroit's line has offensive ability, but it's a bit all over the place in terms of chemistry and line objective.

 

[vecens24]

Didn't Roberts come out as a better ES producer though according to Sturm's study? I would assume that he and Gartner are pretty close ES scoring.

 

[Sturminator]

Didn't Roberts come out as a better ES producer though according to Sturm's study? I would assume that he and Gartner are pretty close ES scoring.

Actually, I did the work for Gartner in that study, but decided he was no kind of glue guy, and so left him out. He slots in directly behind Roberts, actually. Essentially, they are equals as even strength scorers. If one values peak more than I do, Roberts might even be a tick better.

Player|1|2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9|10| Total
Gary Roberts|71|63|58|55|53|50|48|47|45|42| 54
Mike Gartner|62|57|56|56|55|53|50|48|46|46| 53.5

Just even strength production, mind you. Gartner is playing on Trail's 1st powerplay unit, though I think he's weak in that role.

edit: I'll add that Smith vs. Guerin is also basically a saw-off at even strength, and neither of the two is all that good on the powerplay. Smith is a bit better, I think, but both are fairly weak in their PP roles.

 

[Reds4Life]

Reds, how do you think Bowman would have the team play against Wayne Gretzky?

He'd have Shore on the ice against Gretz as much as possible IMHO.

 

[Velociraptor]

Fourth Lines:

Jacques Lemaire is an elite defensive centre, who was strong and both ends. John Madden was an excellent defensive player and Tomas Holmstrom doesn't really belong on the line. Holmstrom could hit, but didn't really have any defensive prowess, and his ES resume is abysmal.

Lemaire is significantly better than MacTavish in all areas. John Madden holds an edge over Bruce MacGregor in terms of defensive ability, but MacGregor is stronger offensively. Ab McDonald was better offensively and defensively than Holmstrom.

Lemaire doesn't have much help offensively on this line, so it's hard to imagine his offensive prowess will be properly utilized here. Also it is kind of a waste to have him on a fourth line.

Advantage: Detroit, solely based on having the best player by far on either line, but I heavily question the effectiveness given Lemaire's wingers and amount of ice they'll see.

 

[Velociraptor]

First Pairings:

Eddie Shore is the best defenseman in the series, and will give Gretzky headaches for certain. He is a physical specimen that was solid at both ends of the ice. Dallas Smith however does not belong on an ATD first pairing, yes he played with Orr, but he was a benefactor of Orr's flawless all-around play. Saying he belongs on a first pairing is like saying Niklas Kronwall does because he played with Lidstrom. Smith will be in way over his head playing on a first pairing.

Shore holds an advantage over the solid all-around Quackenbush. But the advantage Boucher holds over Smith is extraordinary, in all facets of the game.

Advantage: Trail, having the best defenseman in the series doesn't necessarily make it the better pairing, you could've done a lot better here.

 

[Velociraptor]

Second Lines:

Great post by TDMM on his analyzation of Blake as a #2 at ES, it's rather underwhelming in his case.

Blake seems like a slightly better version of Stanley, big, adept in both zones and not a great skater. Nonetheless, holds the advantage. However Harmon holds a larger advantage on Bilya.

Advantage: Even Even though Harmon >> Bilya, the fact Blake is the best defensemen of each pairing, it's very close to call.

 

[Velociraptor]

Third Pairings:

Ozolinsh is an offensive specialist, but isn't overly effective in terms of playing in his own end. St-Laurent was a solid defense-first guy, but was also known to lead the rush from time to time due to his quick footspeed. St-Laurent holds an edge for being more complete.

Portland is a physical defenseman who plays very well in his own end, I can't really get a strong read on Machac besides the fact he was paired with Frantisek Pospisil. I'd like to know more but is he Dallas Smith to Bobby Orr in a Czechoslovakian context? Machac seemed to hold an offensive edge to his defensive play, which makes the Red Wings pairing a good puck-moving unit, but a questionable defensive pair.

Advantage: Trail, Detroit's pairing is unspectacular and could get exploited by the offensive strength of the Smoke Eaters' top lines', especially with no real defensive conscience.

 

[Velociraptor]

Spares:

I'll try and appropriately describe what kind of role I think each player plays on the team, I won't compare them.

Trail:

Johansson - a big dynamic offensive centre who can fill in on the first, second or fourth line. He was not spectacular defensively by any means but a big presence who could be physical.

MacAdam - a decent two-way forward who can fill in on any line. His defensive game is smart and can be utilized to the maximum with the right linemates. He was also physical.

Loughlin - a 4-time PCHA all-star who was solid in his own zone and was known to be offensively adept. Can fit in throughout the corps.

Detroit:

Getzlaf: A great spare at this level, adds to your centre depth and will be a factor wherever he subs in.

Sejba: No idea what to think, might be the Goran Hogosta of forwards, that 58 point season in the AHL could count for something?

Jovanovski: Not a bad #7, injury-prone and not great positionally. However could be a fill in on the PP and be a factor physically.

Karlsson: One great season, he's a few decent years away from the ATD. I don't think he'll be effective in this role.

 

[Velociraptor]

Why the Trail Smoke Eaters should defeat the Detroit Red Wings:
- Four strong offensive units, including an extremely dangerous first line that will run wild on the five defensemen not named Shore.
- Taking advantage of opponents' severely weak goaltending that is certainly not up to the task of handling this potent offensive team, and due to some holes on the back-end, it could be exploited even worse.
- Eddie Shore, the prime defensive player in the series will have his hands full with the '3G Network' and Dallas Smith is not competent enough in this role to successfully shut down the line.
- Solid positional defensive corps that includes some physicality (Boucher, Harmon, St-Laurent, Portland)
- Good goaltending tandem that boasts respectful playoff experience, and Worsley has a strong defensive group ahead of him that will limit potent scoring chances.
- IMHO, top-5 powerplay in the league that will capitalize on opportunities due to group of heavily penalized players on Wings (Shore, Blake, Tocchet, Roberts, Guerin)
- Defensively responsible team with the lines to match up with opposition's offensive lines.

Best of luck, Reds. Wish you had been around to debate the series a little more.

 

[Reds4Life]

The Red Wings should win this series thanks to the larger number of game-breaking players and a far better coach.

Trail has one out-of-this-World forward line, then it gets average, including defense - Trail does not have a true #1 defenseman in their lineup.

Red Wings, on the other hand, have a game-breaking forward on each of the first three lines and an elite 4th line center.

Yes, Eddie Shore + the forward line matched up with Gretzky (likely Apps' and Lemaire's lines) will lose their matchup. Question is - by how much.

Crosby and Malkin are easily the best players on either teams' second and third line, respectively. And based on their record, they can and they do win a playoff series almost on their own. There's just no player capable of matching them on the Trails team (sans the first line).

So the way I see it, it all comes down to whether Gretzky can dominate over Shore + the forward line in such a way that it makes up for Trail's inability to match Crosby's and Malkin's game.

Oh, and Tim Thomas is an excellent playoff goalie and at the very least Worsley's equal in the playoffs IMHO.

Good luck, Velociraptor.

 

[Velociraptor]

Oh, and Tim Thomas is an excellent playoff goalie and at the very least Worsley's equal in the playoffs IMHO.

Leaves a lot to be said, Worsley won 4 Stanley Cups. Thomas made it past the first round twice.

 

[Reds4Life]

Leaves a lot to be said, Worsley won 4 Stanley Cups. Thomas made it past the first round twice.

Cmon, you can do better than this.

But since you posted such a nonsense, a rebuttal is super easy:

Chris Osgood has 2 Cups, yet he was never a great goalie.
Cup counting is a silly way to compare player's ability.

Worsley won all his cups in the O6 era. And all for the powerhouse Canadiens to boot.

Thomas has a Conn Smythe trophy in an era with 30 teams.

 

[Velociraptor]

Cmon, you can do better than this.

But since you posted such a nonsense, a rebuttal is super easy:

Chris Osgood has 2 Cups, yet he was never a great goalie.
Cup counting is a silly way to compare player's ability.

Worsley won all his cups in the O6 era. And all for the powerhouse Canadiens to boot.

Thomas has a Conn Smythe trophy in an era with 30 teams.

Does one spectacular year in the playoffs really make Thomas a legitimate starting goaltender? It's virtually the same as having Erik Karlsson as a top-4 defenseman.

I understand he was excellent in the playoffs year, I saw every minute of it as a Canucks fan. But he is in no way a legitimate starter in the ATD, and your comparing of him to a top-25 goaltender of all-time is abhorrent. One outlier year in the post-season is not near enough information to concede your point.