Red Fisher Conference Prelim Round - Ottawa Senators vs Chicago Shamrocks

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Ottawa Senators

Managers: overpass and bluesfan94

Coach: Ken Hitchcock

Toe Blake (C) - Elmer Lach - Marian Gaborik
Dave Andreychuk - Bill Cowley - Marian Hossa
Brian Sutter - Phil Watson - Dave Taylor
Georges Mantha - Patrice Bergeron - Ken Wharram

Kevin Lowe -Al MacInnis (A)
Doug Wilson - Art Ross (A)
Robyn Regehr - Ron Stackhouse

Spares: Billy Burch, Neal Broten, Marty Burke, Marty McSorley

Patrick Roy
Paddy Moran

Power play
Andreychuk - Cowley - Hossa - Wilson - MacInnis
Blake - Lach - Gaborik - Ross - Stackhouse

Penalty kill
Mantha - Bergeron - Lowe - MacInnis
Blake - Lach - Regehr - Stackhouse
Sutter - Watson - Wilson - Ross


Alternate line combo if needed based on matchups

Blake - Lach - Hossa (two-way)
Andreychuk - Cowley - Gaborik (scoring 2nd line)

VS

Chicago Shamrocks

Head Coach: Hap Day
Assistant Coach: Frank Patrick
Captain: Bob Nevin
Alternate Captains: Doug Gilmour, Ching Johnson


Woody Dumart - Doug Gilmour - Mike Bossy
Paul Thompson - Frank Fredrickson - Bob Nevin
Gilles Tremblay - Ivan Hlinka - John MacLean
Dennis Hull - Craig Conroy - Ryan Kesler

Ching Johnson - Carl Brewer
Art Duncan - Jack Crawford
Phil Housley - Al Arbour

Jacques Plante
Peter "Pekka" Lindmark

Extra: Chris Drury, Viktor Shalimov, Brian Campbell


Power Play
Frank Fredrickson - Doug Gilmour - Mike Bossy
Art Duncan - Phil Housley

Paul Thompson - Ivan Hlinka - John MacLean
Carl Brewer - Phil Housley/Dennis Hull


Penalty Kill
Doug Gilmour - Bob Nevin
Ching Johnson - Jack Crawford
Jacques Plante

Gilles Tremblay - Craig Conroy
Carl Brewer - Al Arbour
Jacques Plante

Woody Dumart - Ryan Kesler
Ching Johnson - Jack Crawford
Jacques Plante


PK Extra D: Art Duncan

​

Click to read more...

 

[Sturminator]

I think this may end up being the most exciting matchup of the first round. I wouldn't have been surprised if either one of these teams had been a division winner. These teams are remarkably similar in terms of philosophy, both being built to play solid two-way hockey up and down the lineup and lean on the strength of an elite goalie. This one should be a dandy.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Some Brief Initial Thoughts
- 2 Elite goalies, with a slight edge going to Ottawa
- A clear coaching edge for Chicago
- On the blueline Chicago is better defensively, while Ottawa is better offensively
- Bossy is the only high-end/elite offensive force in the series, and Ottawa does not have a LW that can cover him or a defenseman that is high-end defensively.
- IMO Hossa's offense will be diminished by being the only defensive presence on his line.
- Special Teams: Ottawa clearly better on the PP; Chicago clearly better on the PK

 

[bluesfan94]

I'll try to comment on these one by one.

Some Brief Initial Thoughts
- 2 Elite goalies, with a slight edge going to Ottawa

I'd agree with this. It'll be one helluva matchup

- A clear coaching edge for Chicago

I say this perhaps naively, but what makes Hap Day that much superior to Hitchcock?

- On the blueline Chicago is better defensively, while Ottawa is better offensively

Probably true.

- Bossy is the only high-end/elite offensive force in the series, and Ottawa does not have a LW that can cover him or a defenseman that is high-end defensively.

Toe Blake was strong defensively, as is Kevin Lowe. As much as MacInnis is known as an offensive defenseman, he was equally as skilled defensively. I don't remember who said it, but someone said that MacInnis played much like Lidstrom, but because of his slapshot and power play ability, he is remembered not as an all-around defenseman but as one who excelled primarily in the offensive zone, which is unfair. Also, I think Cowley should be considered an elite offensive force. Feel free to read my bio to learn more, and it should continue to grow with quotes. He also made players around him a lot better, so that should be a plus for Hossa and Andreychuk.

- IMO Hossa's offense will be diminished by being the only defensive presence on his line.

No argument here. However, it will be boosted by having Cowley pass him the puck.

- Special Teams: Ottawa clearly better on the PP; Chicago clearly better on the PK

Also probably true, although I don't think Ottawa's PK is bad, by any means.

 

[Velociraptor]

I think this may end up being the most exciting matchup of the first round. I wouldn't have been surprised if either one of these teams had been a division winner. These teams are remarkably similar in terms of philosophy, both being built to play solid two-way hockey up and down the lineup and lean on the strength of an elite goalie. This one should be a dandy.

Agreed, I actually had Chicago as #1 in their division, and Ottawa is a very strong team as well who finished where I ranked them. Looking forward to the discussion fellas!

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I think this may end up being the most exciting matchup of the first round. I wouldn't have been surprised if either one of these teams had been a division winner. These teams are remarkably similar in terms of philosophy, both being built to play solid two-way hockey up and down the lineup and lean on the strength of an elite goalie. This one should be a dandy.

I assume you don't mean "exciting for the fans in the stands." Lots of 1-0 games in this one, I think.

As an ATD series of all talk, agreed that it's a good one. Neither of these teams deserves to go out in the first round.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

I say this perhaps naively, but what makes Hap Day that much superior to Hitchcock?

You can check out his bio for more in-depth information, but here is a brief synopsis: 5 Stanley Cups in 10 years. Some say he invented the trap, if he didn't do that he at least brought it to another level. His teams were able to upset heavy favorites in the playoffs multiple times, namely Adams' Wings and Irvin's Habs. He gets a lot of credit for his teams' successes, with multiple mentions of how well they were prepared. When his team was the favorite, they destroyed the competition, at one point setting a new record by winning 12 consecutive playoff games.

Toe Blake was strong defensively, as is Kevin Lowe. As much as MacInnis is known as an offensive defenseman, he was equally as skilled defensively. I don't remember who said it, but someone said that MacInnis played much like Lidstrom, but because of his slapshot and power play ability, he is remembered not as an all-around defenseman but as one who excelled primarily in the offensive zone, which is unfair.

Toe Blake was a good defensive player, but he's not at the level where he can shutdown a guy like Bossy.

MacInnis was not equally skilled defensively as offensively, if he was he would be up near the level of Ray Bourque. I am not saying he is bad defensively, but there are plenty of guys better. Lowe is a strong defensive player...for a 2nd pairing, here he's on a 1st pairing. Take a look at the other first pairings, a lot of them are better defensively than yours.

Also, I think Cowley should be considered an elite offensive force. Feel free to read my bio to learn more, and it should continue to grow with quotes. He also made players around him a lot better, so that should be a plus for Hossa and Andreychuk.

I think we have different definitions of elite offensive force, but instead of getting into that whole thing...let's just start with saying that Cowley is not on the same level as Bossy offensively. I don't think anyone will argue with that.

 

[bluesfan94]

You can check out his bio for more in-depth information, but here is a brief synopsis: 5 Stanley Cups in 10 years. Some say he invented the trap, if he didn't do that he at least brought it to another level. His teams were able to upset heavy favorites in the playoffs multiple times, namely Adams' Wings and Irvin's Habs. He gets a lot of credit for his teams' successes, with multiple mentions of how well they were prepared. When his team was the favorite, they destroyed the competition, at one point setting a new record by winning 12 consecutive playoff games.

Alright. Like I said, I was sure I was being naïve, I just didn't have time to read the whole bio. Thanks.

Toe Blake was a good defensive player, but he's not at the level where he can shutdown a guy like Bossy.

MacInnis was not equally skilled defensively as offensively, if he was he would be up near the level of Ray Bourque. I am not saying he is bad defensively, but there are plenty of guys better. Lowe is a strong defensive player...for a 2nd pairing, here he's on a 1st pairing. Take a look at the other first pairings, a lot of them are better defensively than yours.

That's definitely fair. I still think MacInnis' defense is underrated, but I'll agree that he isn't at the level of Bourque. Lidstrom I honestly think could be arguable - I think that if MacInnis had his peak without Bourque, he'd have a much better awards record. But that's not that big of a deal. Lowe is definitely a 2nd pairing defenseman, and we considered playing him there. We think his stay at home style complements MacInnis well and will allow MacInnis a little more freedom to work offensively - further highlighting one of our strengths.

I think we have different definitions of elite offensive force, but instead of getting into that whole thing...let's just start with saying that Cowley is not on the same level as Bossy offensively. I don't think anyone will argue with that.

Cowley retired leading the league in points and assists. He didn't spend as much time in a high scoring era compared to Bossy, although he did have the war years. He was considered, by many, to be the best playmaker the NHL has seen, even as late as the mid-60s.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Cowley retired leading the league in points and assists. He didn't spend as much time in a high scoring era compared to Bossy, although he did have the war years. He was considered, by many, to be the best playmaker the NHL has seen, even as late as the mid-60s.

Cowley is surely a talented offensive player, but he is not on the level of Mike Bossy at all. If you take out Gretzky/Lemieux, Bossy has better point finishes than Cowley, and that's before accounting for the War and the fact that at times Cowley was a 2nd liner behind the Kraut line. Frankly, I'm pretty surprised this is something that I even have to present a case for...There's a reason they were drafted 3 1/2 rounds apart.

 

[bluesfan94]

Cowley is surely a talented offensive player, but he is not on the level of Mike Bossy at all. If you take out Gretzky/Lemieux, Bossy has better point finishes than Cowley, and that's before accounting for the War and the fact that at times Cowley was a 2nd liner behind the Kraut line. Frankly, I'm pretty surprised this is something that I even have to present a case for...There's a reason they were drafted 3 1/2 rounds apart.

Once again, I'm not trying to argue that Cowley is better offensively than Bossy, just that Cowley is better than he's been given credit for, and also that his presence will boost the output of Andreychuk and Hossa.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Once again, I'm not trying to argue that Cowley is better offensively than Bossy, just that Cowley is better than he's been given credit for, and also that his presence will boost the output of Andreychuk and Hossa.

I didn't think I was selling Cowley short at all. I said that he's not an elite/high-end offensive player. If Bossy is, and we're in agreement that Cowley isn't on Bossy's level, then that should be a fair statement.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

That's definitely fair. I still think MacInnis' defense is underrated, but I'll agree that he isn't at the level of Bourque. Lidstrom I honestly think could be arguable - I think that if MacInnis had his peak without Bourque, he'd have a much better awards record. But that's not that big of a deal. Lowe is definitely a 2nd pairing defenseman, and we considered playing him there. We think his stay at home style complements MacInnis well and will allow MacInnis a little more freedom to work offensively - further highlighting one of our strengths.

I am missing something here...generally Lidstrom is thought to be slightly better defensively than Bourque or at worst on the same level. IMO MacInnis is not close to either defensively.

 

[bluesfan94]

I am missing something here...generally Lidstrom is thought to be slightly better defensively than Bourque or at worst on the same level. IMO MacInnis is not close to either defensively.

Well when they played at the same time, MacInnis outperformed Lidstrom IMO, or was at least at about the same level. I'm talking overall, not necessarily defensively, but that was an older MacInnis and a young Lidstrom (although I don't think that matters much in Lidstrom's case). I guess part of this is me being a Blues fan, so I'll admit that I may not be remembering this as well as I could, although MacInnis' bio (written by Nalyd Psycho) comes to the same conclusion:

Only Ray Bourque was clearly better than MacInnis. He was roughly equal to Chris Chelios, they traded seasons of who was better than who, only Chelios won Norris trophies when he was better and MacInnis was stuck behind Bourque at his MVP worthy best. MacInnis was better than a post-Edmonton Coffey. MacInnis was the equal of Lidstrom until age finally caught MacInnis.

I didn't think I was selling Cowley short at all. I said that he's not an elite/high-end offensive player. If Bossy is, and we're in agreement that Cowley isn't on Bossy's level, then that should be a fair statement.

You're right, I think we are basically arguing about the definition of a high-end offensive player. I will say that Bossy is the best purely offensive player on either team.

 

[overpass]

Here we go!

This matchup is a bit like looking in a mirror. Good luck to the Shamrocks and their management.

Key advantage for Ottawa: Offence from the blueline

Ottawa's blueline will provide a decisive advantage in puck moving and shooting without sacrificing defensive play.

On the power play, Al MacInnis and Doug Wilson will form a formidable duo along the blueline. With the LHS Wilson on the left and the RHS MacInnis on the right, they can spread out wide and whip passes back and forth, stretching the defence and either one of them can put a hard, effective shot on net. MacInnis in particular is the greatest blueline threat of all time, combining a quick, accurate, and terrifyingly hard shot with the brains and passing ability to distribute the puck and play off the threat of his shot.

At even strength, all of MacInnis, Wilson, and Art Ross were strong puck movers, and even Kevin Lowe was pretty good for a defensive defenceman.

Chicago relies heavily upon Phil Housley for skill and offence from the blueline, but he plays a limited role in many situations. Can he get into the flow of the game if he sits for 10 minutes before coming out to run the PP? And run it he must, because Chicago has no other players who can run an ATD power play.

 

[overpass]

- Bossy is the only high-end/elite offensive force in the series, and Ottawa does not have a LW that can cover him or a defenseman that is high-end defensively.

Bossy was a great scorer but I don't know if his style really demands an outstanding opposing wing to defend him.

In any case Toe Blake is as good a matchup for a top RW as you'll find on an ATD first line.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Here we go!

This matchup is a bit like looking in a mirror. Good luck to the Shamrocks and their management.

Key advantage for Ottawa: Offence from the blueline

Ottawa's blueline will provide a decisive advantage in puck moving and shooting without sacrificing defensive play.

On the power play, Al MacInnis and Doug Wilson will form a formidable duo along the blueline. With the LHS Wilson on the left and the RHS MacInnis on the right, they can spread out wide and whip passes back and forth, stretching the defence and either one of them can put a hard, effective shot on net. MacInnis in particular is the greatest blueline threat of all time, combining a quick, accurate, and terrifyingly hard shot with the brains and passing ability to distribute the puck and play off the threat of his shot.

At even strength, all of MacInnis, Wilson, and Art Ross were strong puck movers, and even Kevin Lowe was pretty good for a defensive defenceman.

Chicago relies heavily upon Phil Housley for skill and offence from the blueline, but he plays a limited role in many situations. Can he get into the flow of the game if he sits for 10 minutes before coming out to run the PP? And run it he must, because Chicago has no other players who can run an ATD power play.

I'm about to run out the door, so I'm just going to type a brief response for now...No argument that you're getting more offense from your blueline, but there's no way you're not sacrificing defense to my team. On the first pairing there is a large gap in defensive play.

I also did not see Art Duncan mentioned. He provides good 2nd pairing offense, and will be allowed to rush at will with a partner like Crawford. The first pairing is where we are below average, which admittedly, is the most important pairing.

Not too worried about Housley getting into the game...if he needs more ice time he can easily take some of Hull's shifts on the 4th line. Besides, isn't this similar to how he was used on Team USA at times?

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Bossy was a great scorer but I don't know if his style really demands an outstanding opposing wing to defend him.

In any case Toe Blake is as good a matchup for a top RW as you'll find on an ATD first line.

Not if you look at my first line

 

[Sturminator]

MacInnis in particular is the greatest blueline threat of all time, combining a quick, accurate, and terrifyingly hard shot with the brains and passing ability to distribute the puck and play off the threat of his shot.

You mean besides Bobby Orr, I assume. I'm not sure it's clear cut that MacInnis is the next best after Orr, but he's certainly in the conversation.

 

[overpass]

Ottawa's team concept is built around excellent playmaking centres.

Elmer Lach and especially Bill Cowley were the best playmakers of their time. Each led the league in assists three times, which very few players have done. Phil Watson has an assists title of his own, and few teams if any have better playmakers than Watson and Patrice Bergeron on their third and fourth lines.

The playmakers will have an abundance of options to pass to. As already detailed, Ottawa has a potent offensive blueline that can join in the attack. Either Al MacInnis or Doug Wilson will be on the ice for most of the game. And Ottawa's wingers are a varied group but one trait has been kept constant. They can all score. No elite wingers, but a deep group who will all patrol their wing effectively, work hard, and finish their chances - of which they will get a lot.

Ottawa should win the puck possession battle in this series. And then with Ptrick Roy, maybe the greatest playoff hockey player of all time, in goal...

 

[overpass]

You mean besides Bobby Orr, I assume. I'm not sure it's clear cut that MacInnis is the next best after Orr, but he's certainly in the conversation.

Bobby Orr doesn't count, he was the best at everything.

Yeah, I guess MacInnis is #2 at best.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Bossy was a great scorer but I don't know if his style really demands an outstanding opposing wing to defend him.

I don't understand what you're trying to say here...He's one of the most dangerous offensive players of all time.

 

[overpass]

I don't understand what you're trying to say here...He's one of the most dangerous offensive players of all time.

Wings cover wings primarily in the neutral zone, right? Wasn't Bossy more dangerous in the offensive zone?

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Wings cover wings primarily in the neutral zone, right? Wasn't Bossy more dangerous in the offensive zone?

Lots of players are more dangerous in the offensive zone...Maurice Richard for example. It doesn't mean they don't need to be covered in the neutral zone or that your defensemen, who are weak defensively for a 1st pair, won't need help in their own zone.

We may just have to leave this issue up to the voters, but I think a player with the offensive resume of Bossy absolutely requires special attention from opposing wingers. To add, we know Bossy was able to maintain his success when Brent Sutter replaced Trottier as his center, which has been used as proof that Bossy could carry a line on his own...just doesn't seem like something that a guy who wasn't a threat in the neutral zone could do.

 

[overpass]

Lots of players are more dangerous in the offensive zone...Maurice Richard for example. It doesn't mean they don't need to be covered in the neutral zone or that your defensemen, who are weak defensively for a 1st pair, won't need help in their own zone.

We may just have to leave this issue up to the voters, but I think a player with the offensive resume of Bossy absolutely requires special attention from opposing wingers. To add, we know Bossy was able to maintain his success when Brent Sutter replaced Trottier as his center, which has been used as proof that Bossy could carry a line on his own...just doesn't seem like something that a guy who wasn't a threat in the neutral zone could do.

Toe Blake and Elmer Lach should provide a lot of support defensively.

And as for our first pairing being weak defensively, Mike Bossy disagrees.

http://oilerslegends.blogspot.ca/2007/02/kevin-lowe.html?m=1

"In all those Islanders-Oilers games, I thought Kevin was the guy who really held the Oiler defense together," said former Islander Mike Bossy. "You always knew he would take somebody out of the play; he'd take a hit; he'd block a shot. He never played on the fringes."

Pelletier also describes Lowe as a "defensive genius".

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Top 2 Lines

In games in which Chicago can dictate the line matchups, I think we will be able to generate a clear advantage up front. This is how I believe Day would handle it...

Switch Gilmour and Fredrickson, and have:
Thompson - Gilmour - Nevin vs. Blake - Lach - Gaborik.

We would have two strong defensive players on their two best...Gilmour on Lach, and Nevin (who was used to cover Bobby Hull) on Blake. Thompson is also a plus defensively (although not near the level of the other two), but his purpose is really to bring some offense to the line, so they are not one-dimensional. I believe that this line will be able to contain Ottawa's first line fairly well.

The payoff for Chicago comes when the second lines match up...

Dumart - Fredrickson - Bossy vs. Andreychuk - Cowley - Hossa

Dumart (who shadowed Gordie Howe in a 1953 playoff upset) has the size and defensive skill to neutralize Hossa, leaving the below-average Andreychuk as Cowley's main option. Dumart would not be on his own defensively either, because Fredrickson (who shutdown Howie Morenz in the 1925 playoffs) and Bossy are both pluses defensively. With the Ottawa line's only player with defensive skill, Hossa, on the opposite side of Bossy the Ottawa defensemen will get no help trying to contain him.


Overall, a fairly large edge to Chicago when they can get the matchups they want.



In games in that Ottawa can dictate the matchups, Day will likely keep the lines as they are in the OP, in which case the matchups would look like this...

Dumart - Gilmour - Bossy vs. Blake - Lach - Gaborik

As far as personnel goes I have it like this...

Bossy > Blake: This is the largest gap of the three comparisons. Bossy is way ahead of Blake offensively. Both are pluses defensively, but nothing special.

Lach > Gilmour: I think Gilmour is a better defensive player, and Lach better offensively, although not as much as traditional metrics might show that don't account for WWII and big differences in quality of teammates.

Dumart > Gaborik: 2 different types of players, with Gaborik bringing more offense and Dumart a lot more defense. I think it's pretty clear Dumart is the better of the two. Dumart has a very good AS record both before and after 5 seasons either partially or fully missed due to WWII. Pre-War: 4th, 2nd, 2nd. Post War: 2nd, 3rd, 4th.

1st Line: Edge to Chicago


Thompson - Fredrickson - Nevin vs. Andreychuk - Cowley - Hossa

Cowley > Fredrickson: This is the largest gap of the three comparisons here. Cowley is an above average 2nd line center, while Fredrickson is only average.

Thompson = Hossa:
Top 7 vsX. (still on old system, so numbers may be slightly off)
Hossa: 94, 88, 78, 77, 75, 73, 65
Thompson: 100, 88, 83, 78, 78, 75, 59

A slight edge to Thompson here. Both are known as good defensive players, but I'd be inclined to say Hossa is a little better in that regard. Hossa has a better setup man in Cowley, but also less attention to give to offense as he is the line's only defensive player. I think it's fair to call these two about equal.

Nevin > Andreychuk: A lot of Andreychuk's value comes on the PP, but this is about even strength. Looking at adjusted ES pts, they are close to even, and Nevin brings a far better defensive game.
Top 10 Adjusted ES Pts
Nevin: 60, 56, 55, 52, 43, 41, 40, 40, 39, 38
Andreychuk: 59, 55, 52, 50, 49, 48, 44, 44, 43, 43

2nd Line: Edge to Ottawa


Overall, I think Chicago has a bigger edge on the first line than Ottawa does on the second line, and the first line is more important and will be seeing more minutes. Therefore, in a top 2 lines comparison I give the edge to Chicago.


That's all for now, 3rd and 4th lines will be looked at later.