Rebuild/Restructure and What does that look like?

[Jetsetter]

When does it start?

Is this a quick rebuild or complete rebuild due to our draft and develop strategy?

Who goes, when and for what?

Should we be targeting teams on the edge of competing for the Cup and have a very good prospect pool, like the Kings (massive number of good dmen prospects). Targeting their best prospects of trade partners as they won't have control of where they go and speed up our rebuild.

Click to read more...

 

[mazmin]

I think this team can re-tool around a core of Connor, Ehlers, Perfetti, Helley, JoMo and Samberg. As long as they want to be here. Scheifele too, but he might need to switch to RW to be on a winner

 

[DRW204]

If we rebuild I don't think Helle re-signs here.

And I don't think the Jets will trade him this summer either.

They'll compete again next year imo and hope they're a winning team/cup contender and he gets convinced to sign again.

What a rebuild looks like.... You probably trade away your ufa-1s this summer/2024 tdl, maybe a vet dman. So that's pld, scheifele, wheeler, helle, one of schmidt/demelo/pionk/Dillon. You'll have to sign replacement level players to replace some of them, since there's no elite prospects that can slot in, and the likelihood of good UFAs wanting to rebuild here on a bad team I'd say is low.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

How empty does the building get during a re-build?

 

[sipowicz]

How empty does the building get during a re-build?

13K and change last night, ain’t great now either!

 

[cbcwpg]

How empty does the building get during a re-build?

Who cares? I don't because I'm going to continue to go to games.

Yeah I know Chipman cares, but that could be why we are in this mess. Chevy ( and maybe under Chipman's orders ) decided instead of starting to re-tool last summer decided to just kick the can down the road again with basically no change in the result. And because of just kicking the can down the road, you are one year closer to the core becoming UFAs , and that contract situation on this team could force them into a rebuild they don't want.

How empty is the building going to get? Chipman is going to find out.

 

[WaveRaven]

As far as I see it the only rebuilding will be forced by the big three. If they can keep this team together they will. They are achieving the goal of making the playoffs.

As Pomo said last year if making the playoffs isn't good enough I dont know what to say.

Why would you break a team that's making the stated goal?

So any rebuild will NOT be a complete tear down ever.

 

[Guffman]

I don’t think the Jets would tear it all down and do a massive rebuild. We don’t have that many forward prospects in the pipe that would be ready soon.

My guess is that they resign Schiefele, trade PLD, trade Wheeler (offseason preferably, likely with retention), and open up regular D spots for Samberg, Stanley and Heinola (moving out Schmidt and Dillon).

Since Hellebuyck is super interested in winning the Stanley Cup, I suspect he won’t resign during this soft retool.

 

[Buffdog]

It hinges on helle

They have to try to sign him. If he stays, a true "tank" rebuild will be tough while he's still in his prime. He will steal games that you "hope" to lose

If he wants out, trade him when he has the most value (this summer). Schief too, at that point. Assuming PLD is also gone.

The on ice product will be crap for a while but hopefully whomever is in charge can turn things around quickly.

The problem with true "scorched earth" tank-jobs is that they take a long time AND don't always work. It's one thing to be losing games when you're supposed to, but it's another to still not be winning when ypu think you ought to

 

[JetsUK]

But we have more in the system than the players in bolded. McGroarty will be good and should come along sooner than 3-4 years, Heinola will be exciting (hopefully in the best ways) if he's still here, Chisholm and Lambert and Salmonsson are having interesting seasons in the wings.

And that doesn't include the talent we'll get back in trades.

I really enjoy watching prospects, and we can certainly hope for and work towards a Kings-style resurgence rather than a Sabres-style one.

Especially with smart moves and some serious buy-in from players.

What have the current core, beyond a few players, done to deserve ongoing fan investment at this point?

 

[cbcwpg]

Current UFAs

Kuhlman
Namestnikov
Gagner
Maenalanen
Rittich
Toninato
Sautner

UFAs after next season

Wheeler
Schiefele
Niederreiter
Dillon
DeMelo
Hellebuyck
Harkins
Malott

Unless Chevy can convince these guys to stay ( if we really want them to stay ) that's a few holes to fill.

 

[tbcwpg]

When does it start?

Is this a quick rebuild or complete rebuild due to our draft and develop strategy?

Who goes, when and for what?

Should we be targeting teams on the edge of competing for the Cup and have a very good prospect pool, like the Kings (massive number of good dmen prospects). Targeting their best prospects of trade partners as they won't have control of where they go and speed up our rebuild.

The question to me for teams like the Kings is, are they going to want to trade those prospects for any of what we have to offer?

I think a rebuild looks like a long process that is going to be exacerbated by the Jets not being able to fill out holes they can't fill via drafting or trade because of the FA status of this market. They started in 2011 with some pieces and became a top team 7 years later - could you speed that up with some prospects being brought in? Maybe, but the Jets also had players like Buff and Ladd that knew how to win and players like Wheeler and Little already integrated into the system. Add in some dumb luck in getting to draft 2nd overall in 2016.

 

[cbcwpg]

We have been trading down (Trouba / Pionk deal for example). And we have been trading away picks and prospects chasing the post season for years now. After the 2017-18 season, it was pretty questionable as to why. Our cupboards are now pretty bare. Thanks, Chevy. Rebuild will be ugly, but looking more and more necessary.

After we lost to St. Louis in the playoffs a lot of people were saying to fire the coach and start the rebuild then because they could just see that was as good as this team was going to be. And if you look at the results it's been downhill since then. But our GM didn't see that. He convinced himself that this was the team and the core that was going to get it done.... well Chevy, you were wrong. And if Chevy brings this all back for one more try... I don't know what to say.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Some of you guys need to lay off the pipe

 

[MelikeJets]

I think a rebuild for the Jets is 3 to 5 years of pain but necessary. This core has done zip so let's get some replacement parts in either good prospects or draft picks. Chevy's plan of draft and develop is the way to go and the only way this works is if you load up on picks. Trading picks away works contrary to the plan. Yes it is slow to get to being a contender but IF you draft smart then I believe most fans would be happy with young talent busting their butts game in and game out. One thing I can't stand is what we are seeing with 55 and 81 right now (going through the motions?). Also the "bubble team" state is a slow death leading to fan apathy. I know anything can happen once you make the playoffs but this year's version of the Jets does nothing to excite me.

 

[bumblebeeman]

After we lost to St. Louis in the playoffs a lot of people were saying to fire the coach and start the rebuild then because they could just see that was as good as this team was going to be. And if you look at the results it's been downhill since then. But our GM didn't see that. He convinced himself that this was the team and the core that was going to get it done.... well Chevy, you were wrong. And if Chevy brings this all back for one more try... I don't know what to say.

I think if the team rebuilds Chevy is gone. This is his team, and if ownership decides they aren't good enough and to rebuild there is no way Chevy is the one doing it. But as it is I think ownership likes trying to make the playoffs. Playoffs are good.

I'm not sure if the Jets ever go for a hard rebuild, like with tanking on purpose.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Name a team that has rebuilt from just the draft and how long it took them to be good again? FYI that team had to get multiple 1st overalls to do that

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

The cupboards were so 'bare' when TNSE acquired the Thrashers - at least Chevy had draft pics to work with. 7 in 2011, 6 in 2012, and 8 in 2013. Chevy selling Oduya yielded a couple of extra picks in 2013 - upped it to 10.

But after a few years under Chevy, we were down to 5 picks in 2019, 4 in 2020 and 4 in 2021. Spells no bueno for the near future.

 

[DRW204]

The cupboards were so 'bare' when TNSE acquired the Thrashers - at least Chevy had draft pics to work with. 7 in 2011, 6 in 2012, and 8 in 2013. Chevy selling Oduya yielded a couple of extra picks in 2013 - upped it to 10.

But after a few years under Chevy, we were down to 5 picks in 2019, 4 in 2020 and 4 in 2021. Spells no bueno for the near future.

when you previous 3 1st rd picks are thrusted into the NHL that's what will happen.

 

[surixon]

Who cares? I don't because I'm going to continue to go to games.

Yeah I know Chipman cares, but that could be why we are in this mess. Chevy ( and maybe under Chipman's orders ) decided instead of starting to re-tool last summer decided to just kick the can down the road again with basically no change in the result. And because of just kicking the can down the road, you are one year closer to the core becoming UFAs , and that contract situation on this team could force them into a rebuild they don't want.

How empty is the building going to get? Chipman is going to find out.

Should a few lean attendance years even be that big of a concern. We just inked new local TV rights, arena naming etc so the team doesn't have anything major coming up in terms of key revenue streams.

The org even is willing to go out and spend money on Portage place of all things so they have money to throw around.

They should be able to weather a proper rebuild. A rebuild that should be done as the next phase of their downtown real-estate plan comes into fruition.

Hotel and Condo est 2026
Portage place 2027-2028

The org is soon to be controlling 7 high rises downtown and whatever they decide to do with the mall.

 

[Hunter368]

Current UFAs

Kuhlman
Namestnikov
Gagner
Maenalanen
Rittich
Toninato
Sautner

UFAs after next season

Wheeler
Schiefele
Niederreiter
Dillon
DeMelo
Hellebuyck
Harkins
Malott

Unless Chevy can convince these guys to stay ( if we really want them to stay ) that's a few holes to fill.

This years UFA's no impact players there, Namestnikov is a decent bottom six guy. But I suspect Chevy timed all these core contracts to end at the same time for a reason, meaning he would determine at that point whether the Jets restructure/rebuild or resign guys and keep pushing. Of course the resigning option is largely dependent on the players and their willingness or not.

I suspect PLD is gone this summer, I'm sure we will get a 1st rd pick, good/decent prospect and likely a bottom six player.

Chevy will then have to determine if Mark & Helle will resign or not, personally I don't think the Jets go into the final year of Wheeler, Mark and Helle without contract extensions for Mark & Helle in place this summer and risk them walking for free extending a rebuild by multi years. If both guys refuse to resign, I suspect there will be a big shake up on the team this summer to kick start the restructure. Meaning Mark, Helle, Wheeler (maybe at TDL for Wheels) will be traded this summer. Nino will also be traded, maybe a couple vets on D traded like Dillon/DeMelo/Sch.

But in the end it won't be a scorched earth rebuild IMO, it will be more of a restructure if Mark & Helle refuse to extend. Ehlers & KC won't be traded this summer. Not all vets will be traded, the lower value ones would be kept for leadership during any restructure. But all high value expiring contract guys would be traded to accelerate the restructure and get competitive again ASAP.

Will be a fun summer and very exciting to watch how it all unfolds and we'll find out what our future looks like.

Trading guys like Wheels, Mark, Helle, PLD, couple depth guys and 1-2 vet aging D could result in 3 good 1st rd picks, 1-2 2nd rd picks, a couple mid range picks and a few good prospects and/or young roster players. Now whether we keep all those picks & prospects to develop them or trade some for roster players can be determined but the point is its all good currency to have to speed up a restructure and get competitive quicker. Letting Mark, PLD, Helle and few vets all walk for free after next season would deprive the team of significant futures (picks, prospects) for one last long shot at a deep playoff run.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

The cupboards were so 'bare' when TNSE acquired the Thrashers - at least Chevy had draft pics to work with. 7 in 2011, 6 in 2012, and 8 in 2013. Chevy selling Oduya yielded a couple of extra picks in 2013 - upped it to 10.

But after a few years under Chevy, we were down to 5 picks in 2019, 4 in 2020 and 4 in 2021. Spells no bueno for the near future.

Bare is pretty cyncial view of our prospect pool. I think it is likely in the middle to high end. Look at team like Pittsburgh for what a "bare" prospect pool really is

For a rebuild team it would be an ok start.

But I am going to lay out 2 teams that went full rebuild and neither had help for the UFA pool

Edmonton and Buffalo

The Oilers went from playing in the finals in 2005/06 to Mcdavid 10 years later. That included not 1, not 2 and not 3 but 4 1st overall picks during that time. It would be interesting to see where they would be if they didn't land McDavid.

7 coaches during that time. Its likely if they didn't have an owner who was as Rich as he is and wasn't invested so heavily in the play of his team maybe they fold up. Instead they get McDavid and a new rink and away they go. But that is 10 long hard years.

Why did they fail for so long? Who knows blame it on poor drafting or coaching or management but the reality is it took that long for them to get to where they are and it took the luck of the lotto to land McDavid.

The Sabres were in no man's land following the 2010/11 season. Just good enough to get in the playoffs but not really good enough to do anything. That was there last playoff appearance. 11 years later they are still on the outside looking in. They drafted 2nd overall twice. Both of those players who should be pillars of their franchise are gone. The fjnally get the 1st overall pick in 2018 and again in 2021. They seem to have the foundation for the most part for a good team but it hasn't happened yet.

Again why did they take so long? They really tried to build a team around Eichel and Reinhart. They made deals to bring in players like O'Reilly and Kane. But it didn't work.

Now where am I going with this?

If we want to rebuild completely we need to at the bare minimum acquire 2 1st overall picks. We have to hope one of those picks is Franchise carrying. We have to "hit" on our other 1st round picks around them. Since we can't acquire UFAs like a Panarin or Hamilton(ie we are not the Rangers or Devils), we have to make astute trades at the right time to bring in impactful players to augment our top draft picks.

I would guess you move on from PLD/Schief/Helly/Wheeler/Dillon/Demelo. Your guys that have value in trades and are going to be UFA's. Your goal should be a top 3 pick in 2024/25/26. If you pick outside that you must get that pick correct ie.. he has to be better then most if not all the top 3 that year ie think Cale Makar or Matthew Tkachuk

2027/28/29 your team should be poised to make the playoffs but may miss but the last 2 years you should know if the team you have can be as good as you want them to be if not then its a repeat of the first 3 years

In other words be prepared to not make the playoffs for years

 

[cbcwpg]

This years UFA's no impact players there, Namestnikov is a decent bottom six guy. But I suspect Chevy timed all these core contracts to end at the same time for a reason, meaning he would determine at that point whether the Jets restructure/rebuild or resign guys and keep pushing. Of course the resigning option is largely dependent on the players and their willingness or not.

I suspect PLD is gone this summer, I'm sure we will get a 1st rd pick, good/decent prospect and likely a bottom six player.

Chevy will then have to determine if Mark & Helle will resign or not, personally I don't think the Jets go into the final year of Wheeler, Mark and Helle without contract extensions for Mark & Helle in place this summer and risk them walking for free extending a rebuild by multi years. If both guys refuse to resign, I suspect there will be a big shake up on the team this summer to kick start the restructure. Meaning Mark, Helle, Wheeler (maybe at TDL for Wheels) will be traded this summer. Nino will also be traded, maybe a couple vets on D traded like Dillon/DeMelo/Sch.

But in the end it won't be a scorched earth rebuild IMO, it will be more of a restructure if Mark & Helle refuse to extend. Ehlers & KC won't be traded this summer. Not all vets will be traded, the lower value ones would be kept for leadership during any restructure. But all high value expiring contract guys would be traded to accelerate the restructure and get competitive again ASAP.

Will be a fun summer and very exciting to watch how it all unfolds and we'll find out what our future looks like.

I also believe we are going to see a "timing" issue here. I think given the right offer the Jets can extend Helly, but IMO when the Jets approach Helly, Helly ( I guess his agent ) will tell the Jets to get back to him later because Helly will want to see who the Jets can sign and extend first.

Ie: If the Jets can make the signings that can convince Helly they will remain competitive, he will stay. If the Jets can't make those signings, Helly will tell the Jets he will be moving on.

 

[Weezeric]

But we have more in the system than the players in bolded. McGroarty will be good and should come along sooner than 3-4 years, Heinola will be exciting (hopefully in the best ways) if he's still here, Chisholm and Lambert and Salmonsson are having interesting seasons in the wings.

And that doesn't include the talent we'll get back in trades.

I really enjoy watching prospects, and we can certainly hope for and work towards a Kings-style resurgence rather than a Sabres-style one.

Especially with smart moves and some serious buy-in from players.

What have the current core, beyond a few players, done to deserve ongoing fan investment at this point?

Ah yes. A kings style resurgence. They haven’t won a round for 8 years, and haven’t won anything yet this year. That’s a successful rebuild.

Not to mention they’re in California, not Manitoba…

 

[Hunter368]

I also believe we are going to see a "timing" issue here. I think given the right offer the Jets can extend Helly, but IMO when the Jets approach Helly, Helly ( I guess his agent ) will tell the Jets to get back to him later because Helly will want to see who the Jets can sign and extend first.

Ie: If the Jets can make the signings that can convince Helly they will remain competitive, he will stay. If the Jets can't make those signings, Helly will tell the Jets he will be moving on.

Of yes thats a given, Mark & Helle will be on the same page meaning they will know what the other is planning on doing or not doing likely before Chevy knows. Then they both will have to make a decision, but I suspect if one refuses to sign then both will refuse to sign. If one agrees to sign then we might get both to stay.