Reactions to Army's Press Conference

[Xerloris]

So you guys want to tank and suck for how ever long it takes to get the next McDavid and then still not be a contender another decade later? I would rather have the same old Blues team, perrenial playoff team that never gets over the last hurdle than be the next Edmonton or Buffalo.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

He isn't the math major, the Blues have actual other employees who actual get paid to put pencil to paper and give him the info in a digestible form that the whole staff can use, and because he generalizes this in an interview does not make him an idiot

Maybe then he should learn what other people are telling him and stick to that, instead of lobbing out words and phrases that make him look like an idiot.

Or, maybe he needs math majors around him who can properly communicate what they're doing so that he can properly communicate it out to the public without looking like an idiot.

Or - even better - maybe he shouldn't lob any of that crap out at all and stick to what he purportedly knows.

what do you think he as doing?

I think he's doing what he's always done: try to look like the smartest person in the room. Which, for years, he did by talking down to everyone by acting as though he was superior and pointing to good results and saying I did that.

Except ... now the results aren't so good, but he also did that, so now he's got to make it look like he's still really smart and has a handle on what's going on and that he's got some master plan to get himself out of the hole he dug himself.

 

[Blueston]

Maybe then he should learn what other people are telling him and stick to that, instead of lobbing out words and phrases that make him look like an idiot.

Or, maybe he needs math majors around him who can properly communicate what they're doing so that he can properly communicate it out to the public without looking like an idiot.

Or - even better - maybe he shouldn't lob any of that crap out at all and stick to what he purportedly knows.


I think he's doing what he's always done: try to look like the smartest person in the room. Which, for years, he did by talking down to everyone by acting as though he was superior and pointing to good results and saying I did that.

Except ... now the results aren't so good, but he also did that, so now he's got to make it look like he's still really smart and has a handle on what's going on and that he's got some master plan to get himself out of the hole he dug himself.

Yikes! I don't find your evaluation of him and what he is trying to do at all persuasive or even plausible.

the self-aggrandizing that you describe I don't see. He may at times get frustrated with a reporter's query, but whenever he has forum like this he always is quick to mention the executive team around him and how he relies on them, he always talks about how great our scouts are and he relies on them for draft decisions. he repeatedly has owned our failures.

the last 2 head scouts have moved on to gm jobs. others in our front office have gotten promotions elsewhere. he has consistently been asked to be part of team canada leadership and is now gm of canadian olympic team. ex-players want to come work in the organization. i don't know that i have ever seen anyone connected to game ever criticize him personally (they criticize trades or contracts but not his character). people seem to like working with and for him.

none of that is consistent with the army you describe.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Yikes! I don't find your evaluation of him and what he is trying to do at all persuasive or even plausible.

the self-aggrandizing that you describe I don't see. He may at times get frustrated with a reporter's query, but whenever he has forum like this he always is quick to mention the executive team around him and how he relies on them, he always talks about how great our scouts are and he relies on them for draft decisions. he repeatedly has owned our failures.

the last 2 head scouts have moved on to gm jobs. others in our front office have gotten promotions elsewhere. he has consistently been asked to be part of team canada leadership and is now gm of canadian olympic team. ex-players want to come work in the organization. i don't know that i have ever seen anyone connected to game ever criticize him personally (they criticize trades or contracts but not his character). people seem to like working with and for him.

none of that is consistent with the army you describe.

Let's face it: no one is changing their mind over this. Nothing I say or point out is going to get you or anyone else in the pro-Army camp to say wait, ... f***, I didn't realize that ... damn, Armstrong isn't the genius maybe we all have thought he was. IMO, experience is going to have to be the cruel teacher it has to be sometimes for that to happen and we're both waiting to see which of the other gets that lesson.

 

[TheOrganist]

Let's face it: no one is changing their mind over this. Nothing I say or point out is going to get you or anyone else in the pro-Army camp to say wait, ... f***, I didn't realize that ... damn, Armstrong isn't the genius maybe we all have thought he was. IMO, experience is going to have to be the cruel teacher it has to be sometimes for that to happen and we're both waiting to see which of the other gets that lesson.

I despise what Armstrong has done to the team post-Cup but you lose a little credibility when you repeatedly attribute all of his successes as a Blues GM to sheer luck. The guy was a very good manager in the 2010's. He was super aggressive when it came to trying to make the team better and the Blues were the envy of the league when it came to drafting & developing for a solid decade. The dude has lost his fastball but to act as if he didn't play a major role in bringing a Cup to STL is disingenuous.

(and yes, I have mentally prepared for the 4,000 word response filled with underlines, italics, quotes and bolded font)

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I despise what Armstrong has done to the team post-Cup but you lose a little credibility when you repeatedly attribute all of his successes as a Blues GM to sheer luck.

I don't attribute all of his successes to sheer luck. I attribute the 2019 Cup run to sheer luck - which, it was - and I think that has bought him all kinds of leeway from fans that he wouldn't have otherwise.

 

[TheOrganist]

I don't attribute all of his successes to sheer luck. I attribute the 2019 Cup run to sheer luck - which, it was - and I think that has bought him all kinds of leeway from fans that he wouldn't have otherwise.

Cmon Ted, the guy traded for the future Conn Smythe winner in the offseason.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Cmon Ted, the guy traded for the future Conn Smythe winner in the offseason.

Yes, he did. And his original plan for the 2018-19 season had Mike Yeo as the head coach and Jake Allen as the starting goalie.

You know, the Mike Yeo we all saw was a bumbling idiot late in the 2017-18 season. And, the Jake Allen who was giving up mind-numbing, back-breaking, soul crushing goals at the worst times that helped flush our playoff chances down the drain, who'd then glare at everyone else like it was their fault.

That original plan had us 7-9-3 when Armstrong finally pulled the plug on Yeo. Had Armstrong sitting in front of cameras, adamant whatever goodwill the existing core had was gone, that everything was on them. But, still had Allen in net where he was sliding halfway to the boards on every save like it was a video game. And, over the next month with Berube still in charge, saw this team still getting smoked about once a week.

And, let's not forget, nothing changed until Binnington finally got put in net after a few weeks of sitting on the bench watching because we were practically at the point of we've got nothing to lose. That would be the Binnington that Armstrong didn't want on the AHL team, wanted to send to the ECHL and Binnington refused, the Binnington that Armstrong finally sent to Providence the season prior because he didn't have anywhere else to put him.

We've only rehashed this 2019 times in the past. No matter how you lay out Armstrong's 2018 offseason moves, on November 20, 2018 they were all in flames and they didn't get better until Binnington showed up in net and provided competent goaltending that helped steady everyone on the ice so they'd just go play and not worry is this the night Jake melts down? and not play like eh, no one else gives a f*** here, why should I? The Blues made the Cup run from 2 decisions that Armstrong never contemplated at all, involving 2 things most Blues fans recognized were the huge potential obstacles to success. And, a truly massive amount of luck after that.

Such a massive amount of luck, I'm pretty confident in saying it was definitely not expected, even if we're talking 15%, plus or minus.

 

[TheOrganist]

Pittsburgh also won the Cup after firing their coach mid-season. Shit happens during the course of a season. Every championship team in any sport needs a little luck to go their way. The bottom line is that the foundation of a Cup winning team was set by the excellent drafting and astute and aggressive trades to supplement the deficiencies of the roster throughout the decade. The organizations record from 2010-2019 reflects that fact. Give credit where it’s due, homey.

 

[Blueston]

Yes, he did. And his original plan for the 2018-19 season had Mike Yeo as the head coach and Jake Allen as the starting goalie.

You know, the Mike Yeo we all saw was a bumbling idiot late in the 2017-18 season. And, the Jake Allen who was giving up mind-numbing, back-breaking, soul crushing goals at the worst times that helped flush our playoff chances down the drain, who'd then glare at everyone else like it was their fault.

That original plan had us 7-9-3 when Armstrong finally pulled the plug on Yeo. Had Armstrong sitting in front of cameras, adamant whatever goodwill the existing core had was gone, that everything was on them. But, still had Allen in net where he was sliding halfway to the boards on every save like it was a video game. And, over the next month with Berube still in charge, saw this team still getting smoked about once a week.

And, let's not forget, nothing changed until Binnington finally got put in net after a few weeks of sitting on the bench watching because we were practically at the point of we've got nothing to lose. That would be the Binnington that Armstrong didn't want on the AHL team, wanted to send to the ECHL and Binnington refused, the Binnington that Armstrong finally sent to Providence the season prior because he didn't have anywhere else to put him.

We've only rehashed this 2019 times in the past. No matter how you lay out Armstrong's 2018 offseason moves, on November 20, 2018 they were all in flames and they didn't get better until Binnington showed up in net and provided competent goaltending that helped steady everyone on the ice so they'd just go play and not worry is this the night Jake melts down? and not play like eh, no one else gives a f*** here, why should I? The Blues made the Cup run from 2 decisions that Armstrong never contemplated at all, involving 2 things most Blues fans recognized were the huge potential obstacles to success. And, a truly massive amount of luck after that.

Such a massive amount of luck, I'm pretty confident in saying it was definitely not expected, even if we're talking 15%, plus or minus.

i find it interesting that you think army adapting and responding and adjusting in real time in response to the team's struggles reflects poorly upon him.

 

[Majorityof1]

i find it interesting that you think army adapting and responding and adjusting in real time in response to the team's struggles reflects poorly upon him.

I think he overstates it, but there was an element of luck/destiny to that season. What happens if Husso wasn't hurt when we called up Binnington? Husso was still #3 on the depth chart. We made the decision to call up a goalie, and he was hurt IIRC, only for a few weeks, but we wanted Johnson gone. And so we called up Binnington. The rest is history.

 

[Blueston]

I think he overstates it, but there was an element of luck/destiny to that season. What happens if Husso wasn't hurt when we called up Binnington? Husso was still #3 on the depth chart. We made the decision to call up a goalie, and he was hurt IIRC, only for a few weeks, but we wanted Johnson gone. And so we called up Binnington. The rest is history.

there is a good bit of luck in most championship seasons. i remember as a kid thinking it was fortuitous that david green got hurt because otherwise willie mcgee may never have gotten a chance in that magical '82 season. i assure you that serendipity did not reduce my joy then and doesn't now.

 

[joe galiba]

there is a good bit of luck in most championship seasons. i remember as a kid thinking it was fortuitous that david green got hurt because otherwise willie mcgee may never have gotten a chance in that magical '82 season. i assure you that serendipity did not reduce my joy then and doesn't now.

i’m thinking Whitey just got lucky,I mean he did pick Green over Willie

just think Whitey turned Bob Sykes into Willie Mcgee

 

[Xerloris]

I think he overstates it, but there was an element of luck/destiny to that season. What happens if Husso wasn't hurt when we called up Binnington? Husso was still #3 on the depth chart. We made the decision to call up a goalie, and he was hurt IIRC, only for a few weeks, but we wanted Johnson gone. And so we called up Binnington. The rest is history.

Didn't Binnington literally text Armstrong and tell him he was ready? If Binny had to be shipped out elsewhere then he most definitely was not #4 behind Husso, so Armstrong chose someone even farther down the list. It's entirely possible he would have called Binny up instead of Husso anyway.

i’m thinking Whitey just got lucky,I mean he did pick Green over Willie

just think Whitey turned Bob Sykes into Willie Mcgee

Larussa was also just lucky. Let's not forget the luckiest guy of them all, Phil Jackson. Hell, while we're at it. Michael Jordan was nothing but luck, no skill what so ever.

 

[Mike Liut]

there is a good bit of luck in most championship seasons. i remember as a kid thinking it was fortuitous that david green got hurt because otherwise willie mcgee may never have gotten a chance in that magical '82 season. i assure you that serendipity did not reduce my joy then and doesn't now.

Convincing Ozzie to come to STL was no small feat either. He had a NTC and could have easily said no.

 

[mk80]

there is a good bit of luck in most championship seasons. i remember as a kid thinking it was fortuitous that david green got hurt because otherwise willie mcgee may never have gotten a chance in that magical '82 season. i assure you that serendipity did not reduce my joy then and doesn't now.

To play off your point: The Stars just missed a couple wraparound chances against us in Game 7 in 2019 Hintz with 1:00 left in the 3rd and Benn in 2OT being even closer, as Hintz only hit the side of the net.

 

[TheDizee]

To play off your point: The Stars just missed a couple wraparound chances against us in Game 7 in 2019 Hintz with 1:00 left in the 3rd and Benn in 2OT being even closer, as Hintz only hit the side of the net.

That checking from schwartz at the moment with 1 min in the 3rd that you talked about is missing from the last few years of blues hockey and until they get people who are willing to check like that back, we will never be a contender.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

i find it interesting that you think army adapting and responding and adjusting in real time in response to the team's struggles reflects poorly upon him.

I find it interesting that people think Armstrong's speech on November 18, 2018 where he made it pretty clear Berube was an interim coach and that there would be a "move heaven and earth" search in the offseason, was part of some calculated master plan, and that he was merely "adapting and responding and adjusting in real time in response to the team's struggles" as though he knew shitcanning Yeo and putting in Berube as an announced interim HC was some uber-masterstroke of genius that mere mortals cannot comprehend the brilliance of.

Look, you can be right about something but for the wrong reasons. I passed an actuarial exam and made ACAS in 2017 on about 60-80 hours of studying, if that. I didn't study at all in the 3 months going into the exam. Did it work? Yeah, I got a 'pass' and letters after my name. Should it have worked? Hell no it shouldn't have, and I'll be the first to admit it. But I also wouldn't use 2017 to say look at me, people, I know how to pass actuarial exams, let me help you with your study prep! That was Armstrong in 2019. When you look at the end result, he built a Cup-winning roster. When you look at how he did it, that pretty clearly didn't work. But yet, everyone is supposed to see the final result and think that validated his moves so he knows what he's doing and since he did it once, he can do it again.

That's how individuals and companies double down on bad decisions, when they already have the evidence something isn't working and that mountain of evidence grows, but they get misty-eyed about the good times and pretend it can all happen again ... if ... we ... just give it more time. IMO, the evidence is there that he doesn't know what he's doing. Don't waste another 3, 4, 5 years hoping he's right, churning through the roster, hoping to get pieces to line up just right once again, which with where pieces are across the roster is what it would take IMO.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Pittsburgh also won the Cup after firing their coach mid-season.

And Dan Bylsma rode that to 5 more seasons as a head coach in Pittsburgh and 2 more in Buffalo because he's really smart, he's won a Cup even when there were increasing signs in that Pittsburgh tenure that no, he didn't know how to coach a team.

And Mike Sullivan is still riding that in Pittsburgh because he's really smart, he's won 2 Cups and Penguins fans were saying at least 2 years ago he needed to be fired before he coached the team right out of the playoffs.

Results are great. At some point, results from years ago don't carry the argument. We saw that with Berube this season, and even before this season: people didn't want to leave him in the job because 2019, he did that, he can do that again, we just need to get him not-so-shit players. They rightfully or wrongly looked at recent results and said "OK, 2019 was great, but that was 2019 - this is 2023, he's not getting the job done, he's gotta go." But change "Craig Berube" to "Doug Armstrong" and the same people start falling back on 2019 and results prior to that and use that as a reason why we have to keep Armstrong as GM ... and then I make a comment along the lines of "I can't wait for the day we see the statue of Doug Armstrong go up outside Enterprise Center" and a handful of people get pissed off about it.

But, if you're always going to fall back on 2019 and prior and well Canada trusts him to be their GM which is a different ball of wax I'll get into some other time, then you're implicitly arguing Doug Armstrong will always be the GM here - so yeah, let's start the plans on that statue. Maybe see if we can get some extra spray-on bronzer for it as well.

Give credit where it’s due, homey.

How about you give blame where it's due too, homey.

 

[bleedblue1223]

The team was also rolling in 19/20 prior to COVID and Bouwmeester going down, but yep, just all dumb luck and no credit should be given.

 

[TheOrganist]

You go on these rants that are so verbose yet say nothing of substance. The Blues had the 4th most wins in the decade of the 2010’s. He was the manager during that entire tenure. I view the Cup as a culmination of the sustained success during that decade. The complete opposite of a fluke. Whatever happened after is irrelevant to this particular conversation.

 

[BrokenFace]

The Blackhawks got lucky the league didn't punish them for Hossa's back diving contract (they waited for New Jersey to do it before they started caring about obvious cap circumvention). The Bruins got lucky with Tim Thomas' late emergence as a great goalie. The Kings got lucky that Philly felt the need to deal Carter and Richards despite just going to a cup final with them. The Pens got immensely lucky that Crosby and Malkin were there for them when they tanked, but they're especially lucky that Matt Murray was ready to backstop the team to back to back cups when MAF had his typical playoff wobbles. The Lightening got lucky that they had Kucherov go onto LTIR until game 1 of the playoffs for one of their cups. The Avs got lucky with Binner getting hurt.

The fact is hockey has a lot of randomness. Just look at some of the goalies who have won cups since the lock out: Ward, Thomas, Binner, Murray (twice), Kuemper, Binnington, Niemi, and Adin Hill just last year. No one would have predicted that those guys would be cup winning goalies even a year before they won one. Army isn't the only GM who got lucky with his goalie for a cup. GMs make decisions to give their team the best possible range of outcomes, but luck plays a huge roll in that final outcome. I don't know how actuary tables would be used in the context of a hockey team but I doubt the Blues are doing anything with predictive models very different than most other teams, and I think he knows what a confidence interval is only because I do and I've had no need to know since I took a statistics class in college.

Maye Army is a hack who simply got lucky for a handful of seasons. That's possible. But it's also possible that Mike Yeo was simply the wrong hire and the team and organization was very healthy other than a head coach holding them back. I just look around the league and think every winning GM is mostly just lucky if we say that's the only reason Army has been successful. The guy isn't infallible (finished 16th this year without adding anything of long term value to the organization), but how many GMs, by any measurable metric, have been better than him? I may be calling for him to be fired this time next year depending on how next year goes, but I can't say everything he's accomplished here has just been lucky when I see so many teams around the league struggle to just regularly make the playoffs.

 

[PocketNines]

If Armstrong is as good as people claim, the Buffalo scenario isn't happening.

This is it right here.

If Armstrong is the hockey world's most talented GM, supposedly the best there is currently and we should feel lucky to have him ... if a Blues fan really believes this ... you will never once see them doubt or flag in their firm belief that Armstrong would simply apply his own talent to the situation and build a winner anyway. And yet, they fret and fear this scenario and passionately argue that the ownership couldn't bear it and it doesn't work anyway.

They're just saying that they believe hockey's best GM can't get it done in adverse circumstances. They have a low bar of mediocrity for what they expect is "the best in the business."

It's also pure gaslighting to suggest, in the wake of the Blues making the playoffs for 25 years then trying a new tactic – bottoming out and getting their GM asses into the arena, competing in an uncertain world, making key decisions how to build toward success, then reaching success – that such an approach especially wouldn't work in St. Louis.

 

[PocketNines]

On the 2019 thing, I 100% understand what Ted is arguing.

Here is what happened in 2019. Jordan Binnington got a chance and he hit the ground running. He was like we saw this year but even better. The Binnington 2019 experience was like nothing else in Blues history. After decades and decades, we had one player come in and assert his will over the situation and just take everyone somewhere else that's higher. That is a big part of why I watch sports, to see this, and to see it on the team I care about is special.

Binnington went into the net, and he played in front of his teammates for long enough in such a way where they felt like "holy shit, we are actually a great team, let's be that," that it snowballed into a fact of life - they were a f***ing good hockey team and they were gonna come home with the f***ing Cup here tonight boys, Sunny, Bo, Perry, Binner let's go.

Goalie is the most important position in the playoffs, and short of Roy or Hasek (who also didn't win every time) goaltending is finicky. All you can really do to line up for a Cup approach is build a stable, winning support roster, and get a netminder who has it inside of him to make the save he just has to make that he isn't supposed to, and then a few times you prevail, given the variance of luck and bounces. You can focus on the what if of wraparounds that year, and I guarantee you the Blues have been on the wrong end of that 'what if' for decades. Hockey is a 'what if' sport, more than others.

It's just a fact that Armstrong didn't know that on the 18-19 roster, the difference was that a bad goalie alone could kill his team. How ... is that possible for a professional GM?

I actually had a moment with Doug Armstrong that season. It was before the LA MLK Day game started. The Blues were winning that game when a terrible Kyrou penalty, his last shift of that entire season, reversed the energy and the Blues lost. We happened to have seats within 10 feet of the Blues tunnel. And we got to Staples early for the day game. And way in pregame I saw Doug leave the bench to head back into the locker room. Arena still pretty empty. "Hey Doug!" He looks up, we make eye contact. I know I have one moment to say something. "You have GOT to get rid of Jake." He heard me and continued on.

I was helping him. I could see that Jake Allen was laying waste to his hockey team, but he couldn't. I give him credit for being able to build a team around a HOF #1 defenseman, not zero credit. I don't think he understands the value of #1 defenseman, or that Allen was killing his club – a definitively proved argument. So I give him credit but on the whole I don't feel he is special, and to the extent he is deferred to as if he is special, it is counterproductive. I think he should be fired (understand why Stillman won't) but only because accountability plus there's nothing to do right now that needs to be Armstrong doing it. I'm not demanding specific GM X be installed. I do want another GM to understand how to build a team with defense though.

 

[bleedblue1223]

To out tank the other tankers, what players do you plan on getting rid of? What if in the years you tank, you have the luck of Anaheim and don't get the #1 pick? What if the top prospects in those years aren't generational level? What environment are the young players developing in when the roster was built to tank, not develop young players?

The risks involved with tanking have very little to do with the ability of the GM.