RD Artyom Levshunov - Michigan State Univ., NCAA (2024 Draft)

[WarriorofTime]

I mean sure he can be a 7th or 8th defenseman, whatever.

It's because people assess how much value a player has given to their team. If you draft a player 3rd, you don't particularly care if they had a long career as a journeyman on bad teams, you care about what they gave to your team.

I don't think this argument is particularly well thought out since the goalposts are rapidly changing every post. He was certainly a "core piece" and was the centerpiece to a trade that helped LA win 2 Cups, then went to Columbus and in his prime played big minutes and helped them get to the postseason a few times. Again, seems like you have too high of expectations in terms of wanting draft picks to all be franchise gamebreaking superstars. That'd be nice and all, just not really realistic. You can scroll year through year and see similar things.

 

[tomd]

Back to Levshunov...can someone address my concerns about the what I perceive his potential pitfalls to be? What makes it likely that he can be a 1st pairing D?

 

[Zarzh]

I don't think this argument is particularly well thought out since the goalposts are rapidly changing every post. He was certainly a "core piece" and was the centerpiece to a trade that helped LA win 2 Cups, then went to Columbus and in his prime played big minutes and helped them get to the postseason a few times. Again, seems like you have too high of expectations in terms of wanting draft picks to all be franchise gamebreaking superstars. That'd be nice and all, just not really realistic. You can scroll year through year and see similar things.

I don't see how that's a good faith argument, it's pretty revisionist.

LA was shopping Johnson for a while, Carter was trying to force his way out of Columbus. It was a desperation trade by Columbus even at the time. Columbus made the playoffs twice in his prime, they won 3 games in total.

Teams make dumb picks, doesn't mean JJ isn't a disappointing outcome.

 

[FiveTacos]

I mean sure he can be a 7th or 8th defenseman, whatever.

It's because people assess how much value a player has given to their team. If you draft a player 3rd, you don't particularly care if they had a long career as a journeyman on bad teams, you care about what they gave to your team.

Sure, but as has been correctly pointed out the odds are that your top pick won't turn into a franchise cornerstone.

The fact that so many 3oa picks are actually worse, suggests that the problem is the people overrating of the odds of that pick becoming an impact player.

As for Lev, isn't part of the evaluation his trajectory and how much and how fast he's improved, as opposed to how he is right here and now?

 

[WarriorofTime]

Back to Levshunov...can someone address my concerns about the what I perceive his potential pitfalls to be? What makes it likely that he can be a 1st pairing D?

Great size, really strong, great skating, great tools all around including on the defensive end (positioning, stick, ability to keep players to the outside). Fantastic offensive production in college as a very young player. Projects well as a transition/breakout/rushing DMan that can create a lot of chances... Also has with opportunities to improve and be a PP QB with his passing, skating and shooting.. a lot of people think he's dumb but his offensive zone hockey IQ is extremely high. Just a really elite all around package and being a righty that will certainly help him a lot to project high into lineups due to positional scarcity. He has made very good steps from last year to this year and improved defensively as season went on. Many of his "issues" such as over-aggressive pinching are of a nature that can probably be coached up and given his year-to-year trajectory, there's lots of reason to be optimistic.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Dude Jack Johnson did not have a good career for a 3OA pick just bc he played a lot of games what are we talking about here

 

[Trojans86]

3rd Overall Picks From 2004-2013 (10 drafts)

Better than Johnson: Jonathan Toews, Jonathan Huberdeau

Worse: Cam Barker, Kyle Turris, Zach Bogosian, Erik Gudbranson, Alex Galchenyuk, Jonathan Drouin

Same ballpark: Matt Duchene

Of the 9 in the 10 year span (with Johnson being the 10th), two had better careers, five had worse careers, and one was similar. Johnson is the third or fourth best career of those 10. You absolutely take that with the 3rd overall.

To be fair, over that time period the 4th OA did much much better. It’s a small sample size and you would expect the 3oa to be much better going forward than it was over the last 15 years. 3oa is a very high value pick.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

To be fair, over that time period the 4th OA did much much better. It’s a small sample size and you would expect the 3oa to be much better going forward than it was over the last 15 years. 3oa is a very high value pick.

Why would you expect it to be much better going forward?

If you take 4OA instead, Johnson is still like the 4th or 5th best career in that 10 year span. He's far from a bad outcome outside of the top pick.

 

[majormajor]

There are many players drafted at #3 who have had worse careers than Jack Johnson, but you should still be disappointed if you end up with Jack Johnson. It's not a contradiction. A player at that caliber is not what you draft for.

Another way to put it: most at bats are outs, but it still sucks to be out.

I can definitely see the likeness of Jack Johnson to Artyom Levshunov. That's a little too on the nose.

 

[forever1922]

I can definitely see the likeness of Jack Johnson to Artyom Levshunov. That's a little too on the nose.

I think the argument against that comparison is the improvement in Levshunov's game and the relatively low experience he still has in a much more competitive environment.

Where as Johnson was ranked as the best defenseman throughout the draft year, I'm unsure how highly touted he was prior to his draft year but I'm sure scouts noticed him while watching Crosby which led to his early discovery as a top prospect.

The point you are making stands, where Levshunov has some difficulty similar to what Johnson had throughout his career. I think, however if Levshunov became Jack Johnson with better decision making and stiffer defensive effort, I think he would be a pretty good top 4 defenseman, if never the shutdown option still.

To be honest, what worries me more is the fact that so much of the defensemen's offense is tied to their mobility and Levshunov is quite lacking in that aspect. Transition I'm sure he can habdle, but the offense in the offensive zone can't depend on getting the puck through players, that won't cut it. Is that not what caught up to Johnson aswell?

 

[57special]

It would be interesting, and more helpful, to compare Levshunov to Yakemchuk, another big RHD. I think Yakemchuk will be picked higher than many think, probably top 10.

 

[Chelios]

To be honest, what worries me more is the fact that so much of the defensemen's offense is tied to their mobility and Levshunov is quite lacking in that aspect. Transition I'm sure he can habdle, but the offense in the offensive zone can't depend on getting the puck through players, that won't cut it. Is that not what caught up to Johnson aswell?

Wait, what? I thought his skating was an asset.

 

[Jared Dunn]

It would be interesting, and more helpful, to compare Levshunov to Yakemchuk, another big RHD. I think Yakemchuk will be picked higher than many think, probably top 10.

If Levshunov goes to Chicago I think Anaheim trades back and picks Yakemchuk somewhere in the 5-8 range. Betting all 3 of the top RD go top 10

 

[57special]

If Levshunov goes to Chicago I think Anaheim trades back and picks Yakemchuk somewhere in the 5-8 range. Betting all 3 of the top RD go top 10

I think Parekh goes last of the three. with the other two you feel pretty confident that they will be at least a #4 Dman. Parekh has a lot more risk to him due to his lack of size, physicality, and lack of two way play.

Big, strong, good skating RHD are very high on most GM's wish list.

 

[Jared Dunn]

I think Parekh goes last of the three. with the other two you feel pretty confident that they will be at least a #4 Dman. Parekh has a lot more risk to him due to his lack of size, physicality, and lack of two way play.

Big, strong, good skating RHD are very high on most GM's wish list.

I'm not overly confident in Parekh going over Yakemchuk but I could absolutely see it, there's some talk that he could have the 2nd highest upside in the draft. He and Senecke I feel like are the biggest boom/bust so I wouldn't be surprised to see them both around 11-16 but if one or both of them land between 5-8 that also wouldn't blow me away. I would guess it's more likely one of Silayev or Dickinson that slips

 

[57special]

I'm not overly confident in Parekh going over Yakemchuk but I could absolutely see it, there's some talk that he could have the 2nd highest upside in the draft. He and Senecke I feel like are the biggest boom/bust so I wouldn't be surprised to see them both around 11-16 but if one or both of them land between 5-8 that also wouldn't blow me away. I would guess it's more likely one of Silayev or Dickinson that slips

Eiserman, too.

In general, GM's don't want to draft a bust. They, and their bosses, can live with drafting a guy who underwhelms, but can play middle pairing/middle six.

 

[Trojans86]

Why would you expect it to be much better going forward?

If you take 4OA instead, Johnson is still like the 4th or 5th best career in that 10 year span. He's far from a bad outcome outside of the top pick.

Its just a small sample size and a relatively underperforming 10 years. If you started today and estimated who would have better careers I would be confident in saying that Draisaitl, Stutzle, McTavish, Cooley and Fanitli are all on pace to have better careers. Those are all guys trending from 1st line to elite level guys.

 

[majormajor]

Wait, what? I thought his skating was an asset.

It is, he has fantastic mobility and speed. But he doesn't have the deception or quick footwork from the blueline to open up shot lanes. What I see Levshunov do a lot is use his reach to fling a hard wrister around the defender, and it seems to work a lot in the NCAA. Maybe in the NHL, I don't know.

 

[vildurson]

Something in Levshunovs game has always felt bit off. Probably his IQ and decision making what makes him iffy to me and why I have Buium and Dickinson ahead of him when it comes to defensive guys.

Levshunov has really high highs but his floor can also be quite low with his decisions. When I watch him i often see myself not agreeing with what he tries to do, especially on own zone. More often than other d guys.

He has really good poise with the puck in the offensive zone and he has that potential it factor to decide games in one direction or another.

I like the guy and his potential which I still feel is top pairing rd but there is some coaching that you need to do with him. Some fixes might not be automatic but I don't think they are unfixable. Probably 2 years off from having playtime in league.

 

[forever1922]

Wait, what? I thought his skating was an asset.

When he is skating in whatever defensive way, catching up or angling players, yes he does well. Those are relatively simple movements and require less agility and explosiveness.

But when he tries to make plays with the puck, he can't make quick enough cuts to change directions and deke players to enable him to make plays 1 on 1 from the blueline. I doubt it is a confidence issues, but it does lead to him playing a game that the NHL has mostly moved on from, at least when it comes to the best of defensemen. Perhaps it is due to his big size and weight and not being able to accelerate quite enough at this stage in his development. But that, I feel will be his most limiting factor when it comes to generating offense.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

When he is skating in whatever defensive way, catching up or angling players, yes he does well. Those are relatively simple movements and require less agility and explosiveness.

But when he tries to make plays with the puck, he can't make quick enough cuts to change directions and deke players to enable him to make plays 1 on 1 from the blueline. I doubt it is a confidence issues, but it does lead to him playing a game that the NHL has mostly moved on from, at least when it comes to the best of defensemen. Perhaps it is due to his big size and weight and not being able to accelerate quite enough at this stage in his development. But that, I feel will be his most limiting factor when it comes to generating offense.

Interesting. Valuing 1v1 play more so than offensive activation for a defenseman might be expecting a different type of offensive defenseman like a Zellweger. In Elite Prospects' more recent scouting of Lev, the reviewer (David St. Louis) identifies Lev's Ozone offensive strengths in activation and creating space through misdirection are traits that will translate well to the NHL level. Those traits are team oriented instead of 1v1 oriented.



Although, how limiting will his offense be exactly?

Lev
Season	League	Team	GP	G	A	Pts	PPG		+/-
D-1	USHL	Green Bay	62​	13​	29​	42​	0.68​		-15​
D+0	NCAA	Michigan State	38​	9​	26​	35​	0.92​		27​

In the USHL, Lev was fifth highest scoring d-man in the league and first overall for a U18 scoring d-man in the league. On his team, Lev finished sixth in scoring overall and first in scoring d-man, with the second scoring d-man having 21 fewer points than Lev.

Onto a much higher level of competition as a rookie in the NCAA, Lev was ninth overall for scoring d-man in the league and second overall for U19 scoring d-man in the league behind fellow 2024 OFD draft prospect Zeev Buium, who had 50 points (11g + 39a). For Lev's NCAA team, he finished second in scoring overall by one less point and first overall in d-man scoring, with the second scoring d-man producing 11 fewer points.

Although, Buium was on a heavily talented and stacked team.

College Pairwise ranking
2022-23

Denver (Zeev): 4th overall​

Mich St (Lev): 16th overall (did not make the NCAA tourney​

2023-24

Denve (Zeev): 3rd overall​

Mich St (Lev): 4th overall​

Lev is doing something well if he's leading his team in scoring (2nd overall, 1st as a d-man) and in +/- rating to help Michigan State improve its status vastly between the two seasons. I think this doesn't get enough attention, Lev improving/carrying the team.

I think his defense is being underrated, though. That -15 rating for the USHL Green Bay Gamblers was a team worst, with a team high of +11 and only three players in negative double digits. On a much higher level of competition in the NCAA, Lev lead his team in +/- with a +27. The second best +/- player on the team was a +20.

Lev is developing into a two-way D-man in a hurry. I think that huge improvement in offense and defense over a season in a higher level of competition is probably why Lev is ranked higher than the other d-men. If you're looking for pure offensive in a d-man, there are some that are specialized in that aspect better than Lev like a Parekh or Yakemchuk, but you might be missing out on defense.

 

[forever1922]

Valuing 1v1 play more so than offensive activation for a defenseman might be expecting a different type of offensive defenseman like a Zellweger.

That is not the point. If relying to get pucks through players is your play at the NHL level you have no offense to your game. He has room to add, but either his reads or his skating would need to enable that.

I don't see anyone underrating his defense, he has issues with, I think, consistency not so much compete but he has all the tools to be effective.

He can lead transition and defend and maybe that leads to enough outnumbered situations where he can still be contributing offensively. But for the those reasons offense is the area of his game that I feel is most uncertain.

When looking for the best defenseman of the draft, just as you would wonder if your offensive defenseman can develop his defense the same is true for Levshunov and offense. Which is more common?

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

I would be extremely disappointed if the Ducks chose him. Just screams like a super long term project to me.

He’s not the quickest, his shot from the point is suspect, and his IQ (while I’m sure it can improve) hasn’t really shown me much

 

[WarriorofTime]

I would be extremely disappointed if the Ducks chose him. Just screams like a super long term project to me.

He’s not the quickest, his shot from the point is suspect, and his IQ (while I’m sure it can improve) hasn’t really shown me much

He's far from a project. He's already the best Defenseman in a strong hockey conference. That's a word that gets thrown around too casually on here imo.

 

[ello]

Stats just don’t match the eye test for me. Guess it’s up to you which you weigh more heavily