This is a really difficult question to actually answer, since so many things can change in a heartbeat. What if Vasilevskiy gets injured? What if we shore up our blueline and center depth? What if Letang figures out how to not play like Bill Mikkelson and more like Kris Letang again?
Post-season success depends on a lot of things-- luck, tenacity, coaching, injuries, guys going on hot streaks at the right time, etc. I think, on paper, no team is unbeatable in the East. Just like last year, anything can happen that will reshuffle the odds and chances.
That being said, I'd agree that, on paper, Tampa is the hardest to beat this year. But I wouldn't write us off against them in a 7 game series, even with our lineup holes. The team I'd be most nervous to play would be Washington, just because of my hardwired gambler's fallacy, not because I'm really concerned that we couldn't outplay them.