Ranking goalies is probably the most difficult thing to do for a draft..You could get some 7th round selection who turns out a lot better than an 18 yr old you thought was first round material...
THis year looked to be deeper than last year in goalies -but we saw #2 ranked NA goalie (CHRIS GIBSON) at mid-term (Central Scouting) get lit upand look bad in the Top rospects Game.....on the other hand LIAM LISTON --only the #4 rated NA goalie
at mid-termby Central Scouting had a stellar performance at the Top Prospects Game ...but its only one game and not enough to rank any goalie on just one performance. THE #1 NA ranked goalie by Central Scouting at miid-term,JOHN GIBSON plays for the USNDTP U-19 squad in the USHL where he has a very good .926 save% despite the fact that this young team is onlyat a .470 win % in the league (where there are older Juniors) --the problem is -as with getting a proper read on a former member of the team --Jack Campbell a year ago-- was that GIBSON has only played in 9 games -this is because he has to share the workload with 3 other goalies on the team for development purpose USA hockey wants...SO you can't get enough of a read from that few games.. HOWEVER they also play some
exhibition games vs. NCAA hockey teams --invariably the youn U-18's get lit up playing those older more advanced college boys-so again it is ard to judge such goalies playing against older non-peers ..a better read should be from goalies playing lots of jr. games against other jr. goalies in their draft class to get some better assessment on them.
THEN you have complications of adding for consideration older but still draft eligible goalies... Some of these have proven themselves in international tournaments for their national Jr. U-20 teams including playing in the WJHC...Such is the case with Swiss goalie Benjamin Conz--bypassed the last 2 drafts but now ranked #4 in eurogoalies for the draft ...SO maybe some team likes the older more proven goalie tested gainst top international competition over risking on some 18 yr old jr. who has not yet faced tht kind of pressure. OR we now have the "buzz' circulating about big MAGNUS HELLBERG a big 6'5 185 goalie playing for AIMTUNA in the ALLSVENSKAN league in sweden who is putting up stellar numbers in the Men's league a tier below the top men's league in Sweden (SEL) ..HE willbe 20 at the draft -but do you take this late bloomer (actually he's been good for 2 years now -a yearago with stellar numbers for the AIMTUNA j-20 team) ahead of some of the top-ranked 18 year olds ? He may be more developed and "ready" already --and so even though Central Scouting did not rank him in their eurogoalie list at mid-term -it simply could be he was off their radar-but apparently not for lots of NHl scouts flocking to watch him now.
Therefore-things probably are in flux til the FINAL rankings come out for goalies--even then ranking them and trying to project how soon in the draft an NHL team will take a goalie is difficult.
However I will take a stab at my hunches about where to rank the top 5 goalies --subject to change by seasons end.
1. MAGNUS HELLBERG (AIMTUNA, Allsvekskan League,Sweden)
2. SAMU PERHONEN (ranked #1 euro goalie by Central Scouting)
3. MATEJ MACHOVSKY (ranked #3 NA goalie at mid-term By Central Scouting).
4. JAROSLAV PAVELKA (H.R. Kralove,CZE REP-2 ) (ranked #3 eurogoalie by Central
Scouting at mid-term)
5. JOHN GIBSON (USNTDP -U-18 )
Here are my reasons for this ranking:
1. Hellberg at that size,save% in a league bter than jrs,and more developed age,plus playing lots of games --this is a good read on a guy-- could be anoter Rinne or Lindback --BIG goalie covers a lot of net --hard to inore-o wonder the recent buzz of interest -he's on a lot of radars now. Yesterday his team was down 1-0 ,he held the fort,they scored a late goal to tie it,then he won the mano a manoagainst the opposition goalie in the shoot-out-so another win for him another game with a great save %..which he is doing lots of this season..
2. Perhonen is Central scouting's top-ranked eurogolie and all the scouting reports on him,his 6'3 size --all suggest he willbe te real deal ...
3.. I've seen Machovsky play a few times--I like him...a .914 save% is very good on a re-building Brampton team that is only just above .500 in the OHL this year ..he's faced 28.5 shots a game,not a barrage .but not an easy 21-22 either however he has only played in 12 games --yet the fact his GAA and save % is far superior to
3 other goalies Brampton has deployed this season-all 3 of which have played in a few more games than him-speaks volumes to me..thefact Centrl scouting put himat #3 Na goalie despite such relatively few games played speaks volumes.
4. PAVELKA is one of the babies of this draft ..just barely making it in. The fact Central Scouting puts him already at #3 eurogoalie is interesting ..He is posting a
.925 save % this year for his team in the CZE U-18 league so far this season....HOWEVER he was one of 3 CZECH u-18 players dsmissed from their team at the IVAN HLINKA Tournament last summer for being caught smoking and drinking and turning ther hotel room into a shambles in celebrating after they beat the Russians in a game there. Hopefully this s just youthful indiscretion -obviously it did not change Centrl Scouting's assessment -BUT while the drinking is probably just a one-time celebrtion event,the smoking IF he was doing it and IF he is now habitual with it--COULD be a red flag.. NHL teams will check it out for sure.
5. JOHN GIBSON --though rated #1 NA goalieat mid-term and posting a good save % on a medioce TEAM USA U-18 in the USHL , I still am leery about false read on goalies from this program -like with JACK CAMPBELL--although in that case we did see him star for Team USA's in the U-18 and U-20 world Championships --GIBSON willget his chance to prove himself at the World U-18's in April -but even then --i would prefer to evaluate a guy playing for just a regular team -not some all-star group like Team USA or the USNTDP --and/or a guy playing a lot more games tan sharing the load as much as USNTPD goalies do..
Anyway theseare just my hunches as to who should be the top 5 goalies this draft -
How many go in round one though is anyone's guess (probably 1-3 ) but which 1-3
is anyone's gues.. MYBE NHL teams will not risk a first on an older goalie like Hellberg
(though my thinking is that in light of late round sucesses with BIG eurogoalies--RINNE,LINDBACK --teams may not wait long on the BIG Swede this time for fear he won't be there if they wait even another round...someteams may love JOHN GIBSON if he is stellar at the World U-18's --but others might think like me that theirmay be a false read if TEam USA dominates and he faces toofew shots such that his save % is really no big deal ther.
A team probably really has to like MACHOVSKY and PAVELKA to take either in rond one-but they probably both go in round two at the very least.
CHRIS GIBSON--who has a stellar save % for his team in the QMJHL,but who looked bad in the Top Prospects Game--might yet be a first or early 2nd rounder if some NHL teams feel the TPG was just one of few bad nights for him.HOWEVER I must say that i did not like his technique much -he looked smaller than his size to me,and I did not see very much square to theshooters from him-so I was very disapointed from the expectation I had of hm given his high ranking by Central scouting. The fact that the other QMJHL goalie in the game also stunk --lads me to think maybe Q goalies are now getting over-rated ..
As usual teams could pick up goalie "steals" in later rounds of the draft.. This usually comes from a eurogoalie who develops after his draft or from an NCAA goalie who is ranked below top ten Na goalies orwho was bypassed in the prior 2 drafts,but who
develops nicely after his draft..
A goalie who could be one of these later round steals is SEAN BONAR (Feb. '91 birthdate)who somehow did not get drafted hisfirst 2 years of eligibility after starring in net for Penticton bCHL..NOW he is a freshman at Princeton where he has a .944 save % and a miniscule 1.28 GAA albeit sharing duties with other goalies n the team-he has only played in 7 games to date. STILL surely some NHL team will take him by the 7th round -he's probably a safer bet to be a deent goalie than most 7th round long-shots..There are probably similar good bets on some NCAA still draft eligible goalies that SOME NHL teams will excercise by selectig them in the later rounds.
There are 2 schools of thought here-- if a 20 yr old has gone through 2 drafts undrafted if you don't take him this time,he goes free agent and you have "saved" an extra draft pick for some younger"longshot" to develop -you can still sign the 20 year old as a free agentyears later after he leaves college ... The other school is-that if you do not select such a prospect this last time, you risk not getting him in the free agent bidding that might occur for him once he leaves college.
So -if you like him-draft him now OR risk that maybe you stillget himas a free agent years later -thus in a sense giveing you an extra asset to develop NOW by taking somebody else.
