Prospect Info: Rangers Prospects Poll: #22

[Beacon]

C Michael St. Croix won the #21 spot. D Tommy Hughes is added to the poll.

Please write who you want added to the poll, and give a reason for it. This makes the discussion here more lively.


THE RULES

WHO IS A PROSPECT: http://www.hockeysfuture.com/whatmakesaprospect

HOW TO RANK PROSPECTS: Based on their value in a hypothetical trade or waiver draft. This takes into consideration a prospect's ceiling, how close he's to making it, his health, work ethic, the whole deal. Imagine there was a prospect waiver draft and you could keep only one prospect. That guy is our #1 prospect. Then imagine we had one more waiver protection. That guy is our #2 prospect.


TOP PROSPECTS

1. C J.T. Miller
2. D Brady Skjei
3. LW Anthony Duclair
4. D Dylan McIlrath
5. RW Jesper Fast
6. LW Pavel Buchnevich
7. C Oscar Lindberg
8. D Conor Allen
9. RW Danny Kristo
10. RW Ryan Haggerty


SECOND TIER

11. G Brandon Halverson
12. C Adam Tambellini
13. LW Marek Hrivik
14. C Boo Nieves
15. D Ryan Graves
16. LW Ryan Bourque
17. D Petr Zamorsky
18. C Keegan Iverson
19. D Mat Bodie
20. G Igor Shestyorkin


PROJECTS & SUSPECTS

21. C Michael St. Croix

Michael St. Croix
Center -- shoots R
Born Apr 10 1993 --*Winnipeg, MAN*
Height 5.11 -- Weight 179

2013-14 Greenville Road Warriors ECHL 53GP 17-31-48 12PIM

PROSPECTS ELIGIBLE TO BE ADDED

Donnay, Troy
Fogarty, Steven
Kantor, Michael
Missiaen, Jason
Nanne, Tyler
Nicholls, Josh
Noreau, Samuel
Walcott, Daniel
Yogan, Andrew

Click to read more...

 

[Beacon]

Voted for Skapski because several people are reporting that he had a strong season. Mantha was a close one.

Add Noreau. He is our toughest prospect or player, including McIlrath. His positioning is solid, but speed needs some work, though it isn't as bad as many other big blueliners. Defensemen take longer to develop, so his season in the ECHL is not a big deal. Better the ECHL than getting sent back to the juniors for an overager season. He is a solid prospect who would be great to have on the blue line as a super tough defenseman.

 

[JimmyG89]

I only really know about Hughes since he was in the AHL last year so I feel as though it would be tough to vote.

We should look to add Walcott as Russ Cohen from Sirius XM said he impressed him. Speed and a good shot. Plays big for his smaller size. He also has some offense. Him and Andersson are the only prospects we have like that. I'd add him.

 

[Beer League Sniper]

Skapski, add Fogarty.

Skapski had a generally strong season, and Fogarty should be a poll option by now. He's been progressing, albeit slowly. I'd certainly add him over most of the other options.

 

[Kreider Typical]

skap

 

[NYR Viper]

Skapski add Noreau

 

[Beacon]

I asked this in the tiebreaker round, I asked this, but didn't get an answer, so here it is again:

Can someone explain the love affair with Nejezchleb? His offensive numbers were unimpressive for a 17 year old, much less for his last year of junior eligibility. He was only 6th on his team in points per game. He failed to make the Czech WJC team, which is not particularly strong (don't even try to compare it to not making the Canadian team).

He's got size, but its nothing special at 6-2 203. Josh Nicholls is the same 6'2 and scored over .35 more points per game at the same age... and got buried in the ECHL.

Stats aren't everything, so for those who've seen more than highlights on YouTube, why is he a good prospect? Why is he better than Nicholls? Why is he getting votes ahead of Mantha who was just drafted a round earlier?

 

[NYR Viper]

I asked this in the tiebreaker round, I asked this, but didn't get an answer, so here it is again:

Can someone explain the love affair with Nejezchleb? His offensive numbers were unimpressive for a 17 year old, much less for his last year of junior eligibility. He was only 6th on his team in points per game. He failed to make the Czech WJC team, which is not particularly strong (don't even try to compare it to not making the Canadian team).

He's got size, but its nothing special at 6-2 203. Josh Nicholls is the same 6'2 and scored over .35 more points per game at the same age... and got buried in the ECHL.

Stats aren't everything, so for those who've seen more than highlights on YouTube, why is he a good prospect? Why is he better than Nicholls? Why is he getting votes ahead of Mantha who was just drafted a round earlier?

The same reason Dale Weise made the NHL over skilled players taken in the same draft. He keeps the game simple and plays a NHL-style game with NHL size. He goes to the net. He hits. He keeps the game simple. He is never going to be an elite scorer. Weise wasn't either.

 

[eco's bones]

McCarthy. Walcott.

 

[Beacon]

I wish we stopped drafting the future Dale Weise. That's why I haven't voted for Yogan yet. He has a decent shot to make it as a 4th liner, though we don't know if he will be the next Dale Weise or the next Greg Moore, but how valuable is that? These players can be had on an open market for under a million.

In the mid to late rounds, either draft high risk, high reward guys (Butcher, Duke, St. Croix, Marc Savard) or big defensemen (Graves, Mantha, Noreau).

At least those guys can make a difference.

 

[Beacon]

Can someone please complain about the Glass signing in this thread? I feel left out, dammit. All the other threads have Glass whining, and without Glass I feel like a stepchild that nobody likes.

 

[Zil]

And again:

Nejezchleb, add Walcott. Look Walcott up people. High speed defenders with offensive skill sets and a sharp development curves are about as good as it gets at this part of the poll. He stood out at prospect camp too. This is not your typical over age kid.

Daniel Walcott is a pretty amazing story. He moved around a few times while a teenager, meaning that nobody really saw him consistently enough to scout him accurately. As a result, he was forced to play for Lindenwood University in the ACHA, which isn’t even Division I hockey. Wanting to return home, he managed to sign with Blainville-Boisbrand Armada of the QMJHL. He quickly made a name for himself and was selected to represent the QMJHL at the Subway Super Series.

http://nyrangersblog.com/2014-articles/summer-2014-new-york-rangers-prospect-rankings-36-25.html

Plus, if he makes it we can nickname him the Medicine Show.

 

[Net Front Presence]

Nejezchleb. Add Walcott.

 

[Joey Bones]

McCarthy add Fogarty.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

Skapski. Add the Medicine Train.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

The same reason Dale Weise made the NHL over skilled players taken in the same draft. He keeps the game simple and plays a NHL-style game with NHL size. He goes to the net. He hits. He keeps the game simple. He is never going to be an elite scorer. Weise wasn't either.

He also lost a lot of time to injury two years ago, so there's a sense that there may be additional untapped upside.

From Herman's blog:

Like Walcott, Nejezchleb’s history is atypical and might have contributed to him falling into the fifth round; a bargain, as a few WHL people seem to believe. Nejezchleb moved to the WHL from the Sparta Praha in the Czech Republic for the 2012-2013 season. Numerous injuries derailed his entire season. He ultimately only played 33 games, maybe 20 of which he was actually fully healthy for, and potted 11 goals. After going undrafted in 2013, he returned to the Brandon Wheat Kings with a clean sheet and had a phenomenal season. In 66 games, he recorded 32 goals and 25 assists, while in the playoffs registering five goals and four assists in 9 games.

Nejezschleb’s is certainly a talented offensive player. He makes good rushes up the ice with the puck and can pull off some creative dekes. Sometimes he gets overly eager, though, and tries a move when it’s not there instead of keeping his head on a swivel and seeing a simpler but more efficient play. That’s not to say he isn’t a good passer of the puck, though, because he certainly is capable of some nice setup passes. His skating stride is slightly goofy, as he almost stands up straight while in a high gear. It works, though. At 6’2 and well over 200 pounds, he has the potential to be a difference maker physically. He’s not consistent with that yet, though. The Rangers have been less transparent with their plans for Nejezchleb than they were with Walcott. He also is eligible to turn pro or to return to the WHL for an overage year. I think it will come down to a numbers game. If in training camp the Rangers decide he will be able to get legitimate minutes in Hartford then perhaps they’ll sign him and stick him there, but otherwise he’s better off spending another year in the WHL, where he’ll get first-line minutes against what is still quality competition.

http://nyrangersblog.com/2014-articles/summer-2014-new-york-rangers-prospect-rankings-36-25.html

 

[Beacon]

Look Walcott up people. High speed defenders with offensive skill sets

How much offense does he really have? Here's a list of all our defensemen who played in juniors and scored at least .4 or more points per season. The reality is that even scoring a point per game in juniors doesn't mean that you can be an offensive threat at the AHL (much less the NHL).

Scoring only .5 points per game as a 20 year old in juniors almost certainly means you won't have the skill to score in the NHL. I looked at all our defensemen drafted since 1990 and not one .5 ppg defenseman was ever a threat at the NHL level. At best, they turned into non-factors offensively like Sauer, Cairns and Purinton, but those were big guys.


- Noreau had the same amount of points (.5 per game) and he's not considered an offensive threat at all, not even at the ECHL level.

- Dale Purinton was another player who scored over .6 points per game and was a complete non-factor skill-wise in the NHL.

- Same for Eric Cairns who had over .7 points per game and was similarly a non-factor offensively in the NHL.

- McIlrath was a shade below .5 ppg, but again is viewed as a non-threat offensively.

- Sauer had over a half a point per game.

- Even Staal had .86 points per game and is only a minor threat offensively.

- Jonathan Paiement scored almost a point per game couldn't hack it even as an AHLer.

- Mike Martin was a defensive defenseman who scored a point per game in juniors, then had a mediocre AHL career.

- Burke Henry was another defensive defenseman who scored over a point per game (twice), then couldn't even score at the AHL level.

- Wes Jarvis was a big defensive defenseman who scored half a point and then couldn't even score at the ECHL level.

- Filip Novak is another point per game defenseman who couldn't hack it in the NHL.

- Martin Ethier had .65 points per game and went nowhere.

- Lee Sorochan was a defensive defenseman who scored .8 points per game and went nowhere.

- Same for Gary Roach and John Vary, except they didn't even make the AHL and spent their careers at the ECHL level and below.

- By comparison, offensive defensemen Michael Del Zotto, Bobby Sanguinetti, Darcy Werenka and Fedor Tyutin had over a point per game at the same age in juniors. None of them lit up the NHL, but usually you wind up with well over a point per game in juniors if you have real offensive skill.

 

[Raspewtin]

How much offense does he really have? Here's a list of all our defensemen who played in juniors and scored at least .4 or more points per season. The reality is that even scoring a point per game in juniors doesn't mean that you can be an offensive threat at the AHL (much less the NHL).

Scoring only .5 points per game as a 20 year old in juniors almost certainly means you won't have the skill to score in the NHL. I looked at all our defensemen drafted since 1990 and not one .5 ppg defenseman was ever a threat at the NHL level. At best, they turned into non-factors offensively like Sauer, Cairns and Purinton, but those were big guys.

What's with the absolutely ridiculous expectation for Walcott to come into the QMJHL and to dominate right away?

He never played in anything like Major Junior in his life. It's asking way too much for him to put up insane numbers his first year. Never played with his teammates, never played against the players of the Q, and he comes in and plays on the top pairing. What more do you realistically want?

You're really good at picking stats that don't tell stories and passing them off as the be-all, end-all to a player's success.

Walcott by all accounts is a fabulous skater with great offensive instincts. That's where the talent comes from. Not because his numbers in his ONE YEAR in the Q aren't sexy enough for you.

Listing a bunch of d-men that scored more doesn't prove anything. Benoit Pouliot had a much higher GPG ratio in the OHL than James Neal, who didn't even break PPG until his 20 year old season. So what happens? Neal's rookie season is better than anything Pouliot has ever done. Looking at just stats is useless. Purely useless. You need to get as much of "the story" as you can to form a real opinion, which you can't seem to do.

 

[darko]

Skapski, add Walcott

 

[Zil]

You can't judge Walcott based on his ppg rate in his first year of juniors. He just jumped from sub division I hockey to the Q. This is a project pick. That's why he went in the fifth round. That said you can't ignore a guy with his skill set. This is my problem with you Beacon. You try to judge and cap the ceilings of prospects you've never seen based off scoring numbers in juniors. The kid has taken an unconventional career path and still needs to fill out. That said, I'll take the positive reports from Leslie and Adam Herman over your attempts to pass off junior numbers as analysis. Let me know the next time anyone raves about Dale Purinton like this:

Walcott–He has grit and great instincts, along with very good balance. Can move the puck, reads plays well and takes no nonense from others, even though he is not very big. Walcott does have some offensive upside too–a real boom or bust player. He does need to put on a little bulk, but oh can he skate. Outside of Halverson and Buchnevich, he was the most impressive guy on the ice yesterday.

 

[Beacon]

Listing a bunch of d-men that scored more doesn't prove anything.

I guess I should've broken it down into smaller pieces to make it easier to understand. I didn't list "a bunch of dmen", I listed all of them since 1990. Never once did we have someone who wasn't at or above point per game in juniors at the same age come into the NHL and show any offense. I am not saying it cannot happen, but for all the people under different circumstances drafted over the last quarter century, not one who scored anything close to .5 points per game wound up a quality offensive defenseman even at the AHL level.

Benoit Pouliot had a much higher GPG ratio in the OHL than James Neal...

1. You are citing a single example, not every player drafted over the last quarter century.

2. Saying that "every pregnant person is a woman" is not the same as saying "every woman is pregnant" which is the mistake you are making. The fact that someone scores a lot doesn't mean that he'll be a good offensive player (which I cited in listing multiple point per game junior defensemen who went nowhere). This is not the same as saying those who don't score never make it. You can be a high junior scorer and go nowhere, but that does not show that a low junior scorer has a real probability of going somewhere.


The only good point you made is that Walcott really has not played in the juniors before this. However, many good players stepped in and played well in the juniors. That the Rangers are certain that he won't be able to keep up in the AHL at this age isn't a terrifically great sign. They aren't even saying, "let's look at how he does in the training camp" which to me means he's not close to being ready to turn pro.

 

[Beacon]

You can't judge Walcott based on his ppg rate in his first year of juniors. He just jumped from sub division I hockey to the Q. This is a project pick. That's why he went in the sixth round. That said you can't ignore a guy with his skill set. This is my problem with you Beacon. You try to judge and cap the ceilings of prospects you've never seen based off scoring numbers in juniors. The kid has taken an unconventional career path and still needs to fill out. That said, I'll take the positive reports from Leslie and Adam Herman over your attempts to pass off junior numbers as analysis. Let me know the next time anyone raves about Dale Purinton like this:

Of all of the players that I said will never make it, I don't remember one who came even close to the NHL. Scoring is overrated by some, but it's underrated by others. Your ability to produce matters. If you don't outproduce people your age, the odds of you making the NHL are slim to none.

Many overagers dominate the juniors, then go nowhere because they are simply more developed than others. Similarly, many 23-25 year olds dominate college, then spend their careers in the ECHL.

The fact that you outproduce others doesn't mean you'll make it, but underproducing kids your age, whatever the excuse, in the vast majority of cases means you will never make the NHL.

Again, not one defenseman we drafted who scored about .5 points per game as a 20 year old wound up being any kind of a threat offensively. At best, he was a pylon like Cairns and Purinton. Pretending that at least a 25-year trend can be reversed because of some highlights against other junior players in a development camp is a stretch. If nobody ever makes it... there must be a reason.

 

[Zil]

That the Rangers are certain that he won't be able to keep up in the AHL at this age isn't a terrifically great sign. They aren't even saying, "let's look at how he does in the training camp" which to me means he's not close to being ready to turn pro.

He's not going pro because he needs to add muscle. It's been explicitly stated in multiple places. Strength is just about the easiest thing for a player to add so it's really not at all worrisome that he needs some more time to fill out.

Many overagers dominate the juniors, then go nowhere because they are simply more developed than others. Similarly, many 23-25 year olds dominate college, then spend their careers in the ECHL.

As stated above, he's clearly not a finished product physically. This is an empty line of attack to use on Walcott.

The fact that you outproduce others doesn't mean you'll make it, but underproducing kids your age, whatever the excuse, in the vast majority of cases means you will never make the NHL.is a stretch. If nobody ever makes it... there must be a reason.

Project. P-R-O-J-E-C-T. How many times do I have to say there's a reason he's fifth round pick. He's really, really raw. That said, the ceiling is there. You can monkey around with his junior points however you want, but he has the talent.

Again, not one defenseman we drafted who scored about .5 points per game as a 20 year old wound up being any kind of a threat offensively. At best, he was a pylon like Cairns and Purinton. Pretending that at least a 25-year trend can be reversed because of some highlights against other junior players in a development camp is a stretch. If nobody ever makes it... there must be a reason.

Why even bring up a bunch of cases that are in no way similar to Walcott? How many of those guys were late bloomers who didn't get any exposure to higher levels of competition until age 19? Those guys didn't have skating that could be described like this:

Walcott can skate with pretty much anyone, and if you can skate, then you have a chance in the NHL. He has great straight-line speed, but is also agile and quick in terms of changing directions, skating backwards, going side-to-side, and so on.

http://nyrangersblog.com/2014-articles/summer-2014-new-york-rangers-prospect-rankings-36-25.html

Comps like Cairns and Purinton show just how absurdly off base you are. This kid could very easily bust, but his potential is better than anyone else left on the list.

 

[Beacon]

Have you seen Walcott play in juniors? Hope there is something special there because a rail-thin defenseman who can't outscore Dale Purinton at the same level/age doesn't strike me as a particularly brilliant prospect.

 

[Zil]

Have you seen Walcott play in juniors? Hope there is something special there because a rail-thin defenseman who can't outscore Dale Purinton at the same level/age doesn't strike me as a particularly brilliant prospect.

I know you're being intellectually honest when you compare Dale Purinton's third full season in the WHL with Walcott's first season in the QMJHL. It's a perfect comparison other than Purinton being four months older, completely used to the level of competition, and filled out enough to spend the whole season getting into brawls.

Clark calls him an offensive defenseman too:

Walcott is a little older too, he’s an offensive D but he’d be looking at an over-age year in junior. It was actually his first year in junior this year, he came out of nowhere. It was a little up and down for him but our guys stayed on him and at that point with the last two we were looking for some skill.

http://blogs.northjersey.com/blogs/rangerrants/comments/rangers_wind_up_taking_seven_in_the_draft/

Sorry, but I'm going to go with the opinions of people with actual scouting expertise over your obsession with point per game rates. There's a unique development curve here that has to be factored in. From further down in the same article:

Walcott told an interesting tale of his hockey upbringing.

He said while he started playing hockey at three, he did not play travel teams in his early teens due to financial constraints as his parents went through a divorce. Instead, Walcott split his team playing for his school hockey and football teams before finally going on to junior hockey.