OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Spring Training! Spring Training!

[ColePens]

Continue.

Click to read more...

 

[Brandinho]

Reynaldo Lopez is a stud and Giolito may be an adjustment or two away from regaining his elite status. Dane Dunning wouldn't be the guy I'd want as the third piece, but he's still a good prospect with legitimate value. Unless Huntington manages to find a better package or McCutchen rebounds to his MVP calibre numbers offensively, I think he made a big mistake.

 

[Asuna]

Reynaldo Lopez is a stud and Giolito may be an adjustment or two away from regaining his elite status. Dane Dunning wouldn't be the guy I'd want as the third piece, but he's still a good prospect with legitimate value. Unless Huntington manages to find a better package or McCutchen rebounds to his MVP calibre numbers offensively, I think he made a big mistake.

This would be true, if he turned down that package.....there's no confirmation of that. Unless I missed something?

 

[Brandinho]

This would be true, if he turned down that package.....there's no confirmation of that. Unless I missed something?

Adam Eaton is a plus defender in right, primarily because of his arm, but loses a lot of his value in center. He's also an inferior hitter to McCutchen. It strains credulity to think that the Nats wouldn't have offered the same package for McCutchen. It seems obvious that they moved on when Huntington asked for more.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, actually the more I've read (particularly Heyman), the more I think that the same offer was never on the table for us. Just speculating, but I bet it was something more like one of Lopez or Giolito, a Dunning-type, and maybe a long shot third piece.

It's hard to say. If that same offer was on the table, then I think there is a strong baseball argument to be made that it's very good value for Cutch, in that it could potentially yield two front-end starters, and Dunning seems like a decent, Kuhl-like depth option.

Huntington still has quite a lot of work to do, and that doesn't mean getting Derek Holland or Tyson Ross to agree to the right incentives or the right team options. He needs to be aggressively pursuing a trade with the Rays. In that respect, our fortune is somewhat reversed, because where before the pressure on the Nats and the great haul for Sale might have given us an edge in our return, now we may be poised to need to deal prospects that we don't want to to the Rays.

My tentative strategy would of course be that Glasnow, Meadows, and Bell are completely off the table. Meadows especially has to be off the table at this point, I think. If a team like the Rays wants to demand one of the other two in an Odorizzi or Smyly trade, there's not much to discuss. Maybe it would be possible if we're getting two guys, and even another bullpen or utility piece, but if our hand is forced in that way, we are almost definitely giving up the best piece in the deal, unless you are extremely high on any of the Rays pitchers, or it becomes possible to get Archer (but he would cost probably Glasnow and Meadows/Bell to start with, based on the Sale trade).

If the White Sox are indeed going to go true scorched earth, maybe some kind of deal around Quintana and Glasnow+++ isn't a horrible idea. My issue with Glasnow is not that I don't think he'll be good, but more that I don't think he'll be the type of contributor we need until later in 2018, when the window is starting to shut a little bit. If we can do a deal that gets us 4 years or so of top-level production from a Quintana or an Archer, then I think that's the best way to maximize the current core, but the catch is that it probably decimates the prospect situation, and we have no option for replacing Cutch, whether he's dealt later in the summer or next winter.

 

[Asuna]

Adam Eaton is a plus defender in right, primarily because of his arm, but loses a lot of his value in center. He's also an inferior hitter to McCutchen. It strains credulity to think that the Nats wouldn't have offered the same package for McCutchen. It seems obvious that they moved on when Huntington asked for more.

Sorry but without hard evidence, I'm not going to believe that Huntington (who I think is a good GM), would turn down that package.

 

[Brandinho]

Sorry but without hard evidence, I'm not going to believe that Huntington (who I think is a good GM), would turn down that package.

You can believe whatever you want, I don't care. Everything that's out there suggests that Robles wasn't on the table, but there's no reason to believe the package that they gave up for Eaton wasn't.

Regardless, there's no question that Huntington has erred. The Pirates were the ones offering McCutchen to teams, that we know. When it became apparent that Huntington was overestimating the return he could get for McCutchen, he started talking about how the plan is to keep him. If you're going to go around attempting to auction a player, you'd better be sure that you're accurately gauging his value. There's a lot of potential for this to backfire, especially with the personality issues that have popped up with McCutchen over the past year.

As for whether or not Huntington is a good GM, I don't know. He's undoubtedly encumbered by ownership to some extent, but he's made plenty of mistakes that aren't fair to blame on ownership. MLB has also, unfortunately, changed some of the rules to prevent him from exploiting the same inefficiencies that allowed him to build our farm system up in the first place, which doesn't bode well for him or us.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[Asuna]

You can believe whatever you want, I don't care. Everything that's out there suggests that Robles wasn't on the table, but there's no reason to believe the package that they gave up for Eaton wasn't.

Edit - just saw the above tweet. huntington ****ed up for sure

Regardless, there's no question that Huntington has erred. The Pirates were the ones offering McCutchen to teams, that we know. When it became apparent that Huntington was overestimating the return he could get for McCutchen, he started talking about how the plan is to keep him. If you're going to go around attempting to auction a player, you'd better be sure that you're accurately gauging his value. There's a lot of potential for this to backfire, especially with the personality issues that have popped up with McCutchen over the past year.

Sure I can agree with this.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm glad the Pirates turned that down if that's all that was being offered.

 

[Brandinho]

I'm glad the Pirates turned that down if that's all that was being offered.

Without knowing who the third prospect was, I don't know how you can say that. Giolito seems like exactly the sort of pitcher who could benefit from working with Searage and his upside is still enormous, even if his trade value isn't what it would have been a year ago. Post hype sleepers are a very real phenomenon and Giolito would certainly fit the criteria.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

At this point, there is very little reason to believe that the third prospect was Lopez or even Fedde. Maybe Heyman will clarify, but the best indication we have is that Washington would move one top prospect, not two.

Eaton gives them the financial flexibility to also pursue Chapman or Jansen. I guess they may still be able to pursue either if they traded for Cutch, especially if they shed Espinosa's or Gonzalez's salary, but I think they opted for the glue-type upside of Eaton, rather than the potential huge payoff of McCutchen. They still overpaid for Eaton, but I don't see how we can conclude that the third player was anybody worth rushing to deal Cutch for. De Leon/Bellinger is a better pair than Giolito/Dunning.

 

[Winger for Hire]

They need to really focus and get 2 MLB pitchers for the rotation. They are trailing, off the top of my head, the Cubs, Nats, Giants, Dodgers, Cards, Braves, Mets, and possibly Dbags in terms of rotation. And with an offense that's just about identical to last season, it's gonna run hot and cold. The pitching needs to be better or else that bullpen is gonna be exposed and stretched again.

 

[Brandinho]

At this point, there is very little reason to believe that the third prospect was Lopez or even Fedde. Maybe Heyman will clarify, but the best indication we have is that Washington would move one top prospect, not two.

Eaton gives them the financial flexibility to also pursue Chapman or Jansen. I guess they may still be able to pursue either if they traded for Cutch, especially if they shed Espinosa's or Gonzalez's salary, but I think they opted for the glue-type upside of Eaton, rather than the potential huge payoff of McCutchen. They still overpaid for Eaton, but I don't see how we can conclude that the third player was anybody worth rushing to deal Cutch for. De Leon/Bellinger is a better pair than Giolito/Dunning.

They don't need financial flexibility. They have the richest owner in baseball. Not only is he the richest, but the gap between Ted Lerner and the second richest owner is nearly $1 billion, which is right around what Nutting's entire family is worth. At this point, we're both arguing in a strictly hypothetical sense about what the package might have been, but logically it just doesn't add up to me that the Nats could value Eaton so differently from McCutchen unless it's strictly a matter of leverage, namely that everyone knows Huntington overplayed his hand and are lowballing him because they think he's stuck between a rock and a hard place.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Everything going I've read the past couple days points to NH over playing his hand. Thought having the best CF on the market guaranteed top dollar, not thinking teams would move off him so quickly.

 

[Brandinho]

Everything going I've read the past couple days points to NH over playing his hand. Thought having the best CF on the market guaranteed top dollar, not thinking teams would move off him so quickly.

Yeah, I have a sneaking suspicion that the package the Nats may have offered initially wasn't the same package that Heyman mentioned. Huntington thought he was in control and drew out the deal to get a bigger return. Once the non-tender deadline passed and the Nats still had Espinosa, there was no more urgency to hash out a deal for McCutchen and they began to explore other options. Of course, this is all speculation and I may be off the mark, but it's the vibe that I get.

 

[Beauner]

Gotta wonder what this does to Cutch's psyche. He already had attitude problems last year, what's he gonna act like now that he knows he was almost traded?

 

[Son Goku]

Gotta wonder what this does to Cutch's psyche. He already had attitude problems last year, what's he gonna act like now that he knows he was almost traded?

Hopefully it gives him a kick in the ass

 

[Fogel]

If Heyman is correct, the package offered wasn't as good as Eaton. I have never heard of an unnamed 3rd prospect end up with the same prospect pedigree as the top named prospect (Giolito) unless it was a PTBNL which doesn't apply here.

 

[Fogel]

They don't need financial flexibility. They have the richest owner in baseball. Not only is he the richest, but the gap between Ted Lerner and the second richest owner is nearly $1 billion, which is right around what Nutting's entire family is worth. At this point, we're both arguing in a strictly hypothetical sense about what the package might have been, but logically it just doesn't add up to me that the Nats could value Eaton so differently from McCutchen unless it's strictly a matter of leverage, namely that everyone knows Huntington overplayed his hand and are lowballing him because they think he's stuck between a rock and a hard place.

They might want financial flexibility if they don't want to have to pay too much of the luxury tax which has an increasing scale the longer and more you breach the threshold in the new CBA.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

The good news...

1. We still have a very good basball player on a team friendly contract.

2. Even if spending stays static from last year we have plenty of room to add a starter. From my estimates and mlbtr arb estimates its looking like the current roster (if season started today) is around 87 million, leaving roughly 13 million to spend plus whichever player salary that replaces.

3. If necessary there is still salary that can be shed from this projection without losing too much. Hutchinson (2.2), Bastardo (6.625), Jaso (4.0) and to a lesser extent Harrison (7.75)

 

[Winger for Hire]

Pirates selected Tyler Webb from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft today. LHP with high K/9 (11.1) and decent BB/9 (2.7), 3.59 ERA in AAA last season. Looks like a decent bullpen addition and work a little bit as a starter last year, but future looks to be out of the pen.

Looks like the Pirates "dodged two bullets" with Barrett Barnes and Eric Wood being passed over.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

Legitimately shocked Wood wasn't selected. I don't think he's that good of a prospect, but guys with full seasons in AA under their belt coming off that type of AFL season almost always get picked...even if they just wind up being returned in March.

As for Cutch...yinzers can rejoice, but I think this isn't good for the team or McCutchen. We still have a very good player at a reasonable price who we can put back on the market again...but I don't think we're going to have another chance to get a blue chip prospect for him again.

I'm just worried about how he's going to react to all this...this could light a fire under his ass...or he could be a mopey **** about it like he was anytime anything went against him last season. We'll see...I'm just not hopeful. I could see this going from bad to toxic very quickly. You couldn't just trade him to trade him, but now you have the face of the franchise returning, knowing that his GM just spent the Winter Meetings doing everything he could to trade him...a couple years ago I'd expect McCutchen to laugh it off...but at this point I've almost forgotten what his smile looks like.

 

[TNT87]

gotta wonder what this does to cutch's psyche. He already had attitude problems last year, what's he gonna act like now that he knows he was almost traded?

 

[Winger for Hire]

I would have felt waaaaay more comfortable has Cutch just not said anything at all... I hate Twitter for non-news people.