OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Sell the Team

[NewAgeOutlaw]

I honestly would not be surprised if Glasnow is in the rotation to start the year. They might as well this year. They will not contend no matter who their 5th starter is.

I can see the advantages of using him in the pen. If he is a starter and bombs again it could be disastrous for his confidence. You start the year off with him in the pen and you can re-visit starting if he performs.

Still, I would not be at all surprised if he remains in the starting rotation. As dumb as it is, there is pressure for the organization to have a top prospect pitching over somebody who could be a better option at the major league level at this time.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I think those are good points as well, even though the sort of expectations from Glasnow might be tempered a bit in relation to wanting to show a main piece from the Cole trade. From a PR standpoint, if Musgrove is a solid cog in the rotation and Moran is showing the signs of power + hit tools at third base, things look a lot better.

I think for that reason there's a good chance we'll see a true battle in spring training, with the best player claiming the spot. Last year, there were both positive and negative signs from Glasnow, and I think given his inconsistency, he's beyond getting a bit of a handicap. It's possible that they'll do a similar thing again (and to be fair, results in spring training are not everything--what the coaches see is just as important), but IMO he needs to basically be pristine with the walks to get a chance in the rotation, and developmentally, it just seems like getting MLB players to make outs with some kind of consistency is what he needs, hence why I'm pushing the long-man idea.

In a sense, Brault still flies under the radar in all of this. Granted, in limited showings, he's never been wowing, but he'll be just turning 26 at the very start of the season and did put together a strong and consistent AAA campaign last year. So a true competition for the spot in spring training isn't the worst way to handle it.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I think it's something like a 90% chance Glasnow goes north when camp breaks. He'd have to show a real loss of command and just throw meatball after meatball in spring games to go back to Indy.

I think his role out of camp should be bullpen, unless he shows up throwing bullets and painting corners. Kuhl and Williams have certainly earned to be heavy front-runners for two of the 3/4/5 spots. They were both good enough to be MLB level pitchers and both showed flashes of being able to maybe kick it up another level. Bumping one of them (again, barring some truly disastrous spring showings) really could upset the apple cart when it comes to team chemistry. You don't have to give them long leashes into the season, but I think they've earned roles.

Musgrove certainly could feature in the bullpen, but from all the talk it sounds like they want to give him a rotation shot. Plus the bullpen is getting a little crowded, especially if they want to keep around their Rule 5 guys.

In my eyes, for Glasnow to win a spot in the rotation (with Williams, Kuhl, Musgrove having OK to Good springs and those being their penciled in 3,4,5) he really needs to show command of his three pitches, improved base runner management, smooth repeatable delivery, an improved demeanor and composure when runners get on base, and the ability to put a batter away. Not flashes of all those, but consistent showings and noticeable improvements in those areas. I would love to see the mental makeup also improve (which would play into a lot of those areas I mentioned), but I think the biggest leaps there will be made in-season when he gets into meaningful games and situations.

I would really like Brault to get a shot to claim a rotation spot, but I can understand if maybe they want to mold him more into a long term, multi-inning/swingman for when/if Glasnow latches on in the rotation and injuries/fatigue hit or, for the sake of my fantasy team I hope it doesn't come, Nova's full... umm, well... supernova implosion.

ETA- I'm really liking having Glasnow open the season as an OTTO guy for the back end of the rotation. Kuhl and Williams sometimes seem to have trouble getting lengthy outings and having Glasnow be there as a long man with a set limit, it could help from over taxing the pen, forcing a starter to extend an inning or two and letting a game get out of reach, and allows Glasnow to get multiple innings (ideally 2-3 an outing) without forcing him into a bullpen/reliever like mentality of "balls-to-the-wall" for one inning.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Without seeing anyone in spring and just going by what I've seen in the past, my own (amazing) scouting, and not having the effort to research player options, I'd probably look to break camp with the following roster:

C: Cervelli
1B: Bell
2B: Harrison
SS: Mercer
3B: Moran
RF: Greg
CF: Marte
LF: Luplow

Bench: Diaz, Moroff, Fraizer, Freese, Serpico

1: Taillon
2: Nova
3: Kuhl
4: Musgrove
5: Williams

Bullpen: Rivero (CL), Hudson, Milbrath, Kontos, Brault, Feliz, Glasnow

If Glasnow makes the rotation, Brault becomes the long/swingman and Turley/Smoker probably makes the pen as "the lefty". If Crick doesn't have any options, which I'm almost positive he has, he probably makes it over Feliz or Milbrath (pending their infatuation with Milbrath; I'm assuming they are planning on keeping him). Shugel, Sanatana, and Neverauskas have all earned (in my eyes) expanded big league roles. Moving Hudson would open up a spot, but I'm assuming they're going to hope he rebuilds some value before thinking about moving on. I slotted Williams as the 5 because I'd want Musgrove to get as many starts/innings under his belt to establish himself and Williams, while I think he takes some forward steps this season, can most afford to "miss some starts" and work out of the pen to start the season until a 5th starter is needed.

My biggest "reach" is Luplow starting in LF. I've said that I'm all for a youth movement and I feel that Luplow should be given his chance early on here. That way if he falters, he still has a good bulk of the season to go to Indy and "fix it" and have a shot at coming back strong at the end of the season. If he doesn't break camp, then Osuna/Nava are the logical replacements with (I guess) Fraizer taking the starting spot. Meadows, I'm assuming, will get at least 2 months in Indy and I would not be surprised at all to see Kramer at some point get his debut before roster expansion.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I could see that, although I think there's a pretty good chance Nava will make the team. I think it should again come down to spring training: if Luplow or even Osuna has an extremely strong camp, then a starting job should be available for them.

Moroff is kind of an interesting case, since coming off the bench really didn't suit him last year, and it makes sense to want to see what you have with him at some point. I could see him going to Indy on the assumption that at-bats might be kind of hard to come by in that situation, since presumably Frazier will be taking 2B at-bats and you still have Rodriguez, with Moran likely not getting a lot of time off (and when he does, Freese there, which means no starts at third for J-Hay).

Probably what makes the most sense, outside of a handful of positions, is to let playing time be battled for, and ride the hot hands, within reason. There aren't enough veterans to really tank the development of young players, but guys like Rodriguez, Nava, and Freese need to be supplementary players at most. Even if Nava hits the way he did last year, and brings good defense, he's at most a part-time player out there.

Re: Glasnow, if he does start out of the bullpen, one thing that would make sense would be to try and spread out the starters who you'll count on for less innings, with the idea that Glasnow might be able to piggypack twice in a rotation at times. It won't work as a definite strategy, and it's something of an open question which pitchers should be counted on for how many innings, but regardless, there should be ways to get him a reasonable amount of innings in the pen. In any case, having at least two guys in the bullpen who might be able to pivot to starting positions is an ok problem to have, even if the actual transitions will require some shuffling when the time comes.

 

[Winger for Hire]

 

[DJ Spinoza]

That's actually moderately surprising to me, although it's somewhat noncommittal. I think you have to wonder a bit about Glasnow's status with the team... I am forgetting all of the intricacies of when he tried what approach, when he refused to listen to coaches, etc., but even beyond all of that, his success in Indianapolis came entirely out of the stretch. He may just be ticketed for the bullpen in order to get experience getting MLB batters out, and be among the first in line when an opportunity opens up.

I say all of that because I think it's a pretty good assumption that only one rotation spot is up for grabs right now. It's possible that they'll take a more wild west approach and open up three spots, but I think Kuhl and Williams were both consistent enough that they have jobs as of the start of the season, perhaps with limited breathing room assuming there are a solid 2-3 candidates right behind them. It will be interesting if Hurdle makes any more explicit comments regarding that as we get underway, and also whether Glasnow even starts games in spring training. They could totally take the OTTO approach with him from the jump this year, and tell him this is his current MLB role, show consistency and a starter spot could still be in the mix, etc.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Former Pirate watch-

Phillies sign Financial Flexibility to a MiLB deal.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Apparently Osuna spent the winter working out at 3rd and is currently taking spring reps there.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I think the plan is in part to have him become more of a utility player... or something. It seems like Greg is maybe gonna stick in RF, and Osuna in LF is a nightmare. But so is Frazier, for the most part...

We need to come up with hypothetical exercises to keep us entertained until real storylines start rolling in. Maybe this'll do it: what are three mostly-realistic hopes that you have, if you could guarantee them, for this upcoming season, organization-wide? For me, I'd say:

1. Austin Meadows stays healthy and bursts onto the scene by mid/late June.
2. Cole Tucker continues his strong play and breaks into AAA around the same time, creating genuine buzz as the SS of the immediate future (whether that means cup of coffee + possible job to win next spring, or very shortly after that).
3. Joe Musgrove settles into an NL rotation spot and hits his Steamer projection, maybe with a slight uptick in Ks.

Those are off the top of my head and without much thought, but my idea is three hopes that are very optimistic but not wild (i.e., Glasnow turning into an ace, Moran hitting 35 HRs or something).

 

[Winger for Hire]

3 mostly realistic hopes for 2018... hmmmm...

1. The Pirates loosen their pitching philosophy, or at least allow for certain deviations for pitchers, which allow Kuhl to really show he's a solid #3. The bullpen becomes a little less volatile and Hudson rebounds slightly and isn't gasoline to throw on a fire.

2. Kevin Kramer doesn't miss a beat in Indy and throws up a .365 OB% and .486 Slg%. Makes a strong case to be the front runner for the 2nd base job in 2019.

3. I feel like a Glasnow one is too easy, so I think Nick Kingham really flashes some excellent stuff in the first 2 months in Indy and gets a shot filling in for injuries and doesn't looks back (not an ace, but useful MLB starter). Unfortunately this will either leave the Pirates with way too many starters, a catastrophic injury, or a failed Glasnow.

Bonus Round- Bell's power numbers stay pretty much the same, but his pitch recognition and plate discipline improve and get his OB% into the .350 range.

Adding another time waster- 3 hoping against hope, realistic pitfalls the team faces:

1. The rotation (and staff in general) leans too heavily the seemingly outdated "pitching to contact/groundball/always down in the zone" method and keep getting hammer with the long ball.

2. The lack of a primary LF hurts the OF by not being able to improve on converting a high percentage of fly balls into outs (something the Pirates' OF have ranked in the bottom 2 in the MLB for 2 years now).

3. The catching situation keeps becoming more and more bleak with Cervelli, while avoiding the long term injury, sees a couple short DL stints and lingering injuries. Diaz gets off to a slow start with the whole kidnapping thing weighing on his mind early on and he pushes himself too hard to make up for it and tries to play above his skills.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I see your pessimistic rejoinder and will probably struggle to come up with different options:

1. Greg can't recapture the magic, both in terms of consistently staying healthy, and in terms of steady performance when he is healthy.

2. Taillon doesn't collapse, but remains slightly inconsistent in terms of innings and Ks. Maybe this one is cheating, but I have in mind that he's more of a solid #3 than a real front end guy.

3. The bullpen ends up being mostly flash and not a lot of real impact/consistent outs, except for Rivero and Kontos, and only most of the time.

Trying to work through these makes me think that there are actually a whole lot of in-between situations with the current team and organizationally that you could bend in either direction like this. To some extent, that's probably fan subjectivity weighing in, but there also genuinely do seem to be a lot of variables. I imagine I will vacillate 100 times on this, but right now I'm pretty convinced that overall for the MLB team, a lot rides on the kinds of offensive performances we get from Moran and Polanco, and whether and to what extent the bullpen really emerges as a weapon. If we hit on all of those areas, then I think we'll be winning a lot more games than most seem to expect.

In fact, I'd go as far as to say that really seeing the bullpen emerge as a weapon again will go much further than almost everything else. There will be enough functional starting pitching to rely on if we have a top bullpen, and it's just sort of the nature of the regular season that a good pitching team will get enough offense to hang around, even if the offense projects as at-best below mediocre.

 

[Winger for Hire]

The bullpen is one area I am generally optimistic about. It has a glut of arms and most of them have some sort of good track record and, used properly, can be very effective.

My biggest fear is that the lineup lacks the kind of punch to really wield that strength effectively, without going into outside the box usage.

Moran and Polanco becoming effective lineup pieces would go a long way in helping to protect Bell. Marte, while I've given up hope of his power coming around, needs to cleanup his approach and become a top of the lineup factor. If Bell can be bookended by a power hitting Moran and a well rounded Polanco, I think Bell becomes more effective and the lineup as a whole looks at least middle of the pack.

I still am not counting on any of that, as I want to see before I believe. This, until proven otherwise, is still a bottom 3 NL lineup.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I agree on all counts, and that's really why I am pressing on Moran and Polanco. Both have the potential to provide something similar to what we saw from Bell last year, with Bell taking perhaps another step forward and really emerging as the central offensive force, if his hitting and OBP advances to where it should. If you take a healthy Cervelli, toss in Marte and J-Hay, and then at-bats from guys like Frazier and S-Rod, the lineup is at least somewhere around average, and definitely ok enough to win a decent number of games with adequate pitching and a real weapon bullpen.

If both flop, and/or you have certain injuries, then the lineup is at best bottom 3... I'm actually pretty optimistic about Moran, but I think in a measured way. I think he may surprise some, but should be good for some pretty solid power numbers, and ok hitting. I'm expecting somewhere around 15-20 HRs, and a profile that is overall more of a #6 type, but if he finds the right groove with the Clemente Wall, then he's my pick to be one of the biggest immediate bright spots on the team.

With him, it's a lot of guesswork, small samples, and so on, whereas I think there's a lot more baggage and question marks around Polanco generally speaking. I'm pretty sure I said this exactly before, but if we get back 2016 Polanco, we'll be breathing huge sighs of relief, and doubly so if we get an even more consistent version of that Polanco. It's on the upper upper end of hope and optimism, but Marte and Polanco still have the tools to be 4-win players. Harder to pin those numbers on Bell and Moran because of some defensive questions, but if we get a bunch of power between them, a lot can be forgiven. And if Harrison has an upper year and produces 2.5 WAR, the offense will really be cooking.

But there are so many different areas to chip away at that it's impossible to see the offense being much more than a bit below average. If we can get it there, which I think still is driven largely by healthy and productive Polanco and Moran, then there's more reason to think this team will hover around 85 wins than 75.

 

[Winger for Hire]

David Freese is trending quickly...