OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Sell the Team

[cookthebooks]

psyching myself up for the race for 81

 

[cheesedanish87]

Whatever center JR gets has to be able to PK, you can't have Sheahan as your only center that plays the PK.

 

[OnMyOwn]

Whatever center JR gets has to be able to PK, you can't have Sheahan as your only center that plays the PK.

But the real question is...can that center also bat cleanup?

 

[cheesedanish87]

But the real question is...can that center also bat cleanup?

Oops.

Wrong thread.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

Normally I'd delete OT stuff, but there is a legitimate possibility that whoever the Penguins acquire at the trade deadline will be a better baseball player than the Pirates employ there.

 

[TNT87]

Normally I'd delete OT stuff, but there is a legitimate possibility that whoever the Penguins acquire at the trade deadline will be a better baseball player than the Pirates employ there.

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

Jorge Soler supposedly re-tooled his swing in the offseason. The man has immense natural power. If he can learn to get bat to ball more often he could be scary. I hope he has a break out year simply so the Cubs feel stupid for trading him for Wade Davis.

 

[Winger for Hire]

#RippedLikeJesus

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Encouraging write-up... I have never really done a lot of reading about the relationship between conditioning and development, but it's not hard to believe that an approach to conditioning that was off can really screw up a season, especially since Polanco is already injury prone. If we have the 2016 version of Polanco, that's going to be a huge relief, even if the 2016 version of Polanco still has some lingering question marks in some areas (above all, defense). If we have the first half of 2016 Polanco over basically a full season, then it wouldn't too shocking if that's the best player on the team, although that's in some part a commentary on the other players on the team (though not totally).

There's so many variables for almost all of the players on the team that you could really say this about anyone, but at least on offense, I think a whole lot rides on what Polanco and Moran do. If they are slightly above average middle of the lineup bats, we'll beat the projections and at least be in the mix of the WC race for quite a while.

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

In modern day sports, with all of the organization that goes into strength and conditioning, I have no idea how any athlete puts on too much muscle to the point that they become insanely fragile.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Well, that sucks.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I seriously cannot see the Pirates mounting even a mediocre run this year.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Twins and Brewers both offered Yu $100m+ for 5 yrs. Dodgers offered 6 years, but not close to the Cubs offer.

But, hey, Daniel Nava... Who for some reason people are penciling in as the opening day RF.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

While the Brewers getting him would probably have been more generally interesting, them getting him over the Cubs would have been worse for us, I think, as much as it even matters. Of course, the Twins or Rangers would have been ideal, but it is what it is.

We'll press into the season without any clear strategy other than hoping for several good breaks. I think the one possible upshot is that players should be able to receive and earn opportunities to see who might emerge as key players for the next short stretch. One or two potential 2-3 win players on short-term deals may or may not be worth blocking that. On the one hand, I think you have to seriously take a look at whether the team will even truly be able to be much more than a fringe contender. The answer is that they won't, in large part out of external necessity, and in some part out of unwillingness to risk/cheapness.

Given that, I think the decision now is between small upshot gambles and going the route of playing young players. Opting for the latter route is probably better, but I'm not sure it's much of a meaningful difference. All of the approaches boil down to corner-cutting attempts to steal wins here and there, and there's absolutely no reason to think that even if a couple of core players emerge, the front office will be able to supplement them well, due to incompetence and the ownership.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Good news is reports out of Venezuela indicate that Diaz's mother has been found and is safe.

 

[Brandinho]

In modern day sports, with all of the organization that goes into strength and conditioning, I have no idea how any athlete puts on too much muscle to the point that they become insanely fragile.

Most of the time, it's because they're on gear and their cartilage and ligaments just can't handle the extra force that's being exerted.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

I actually remember him. That is a lot of heroin and coke.

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

I remember Loaiza as well. I have an immense and useless knowledge of the hopeless era Bucs.

I can't wait to watch baseball, as meh as the Bucs are likely to be. I might actually watch spring training games to scout the young players. The only hope for this season is a Cardinalsesque influx of production from a bunch of guys from the minors nobody has heard of.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Over under? 100 losses.

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

Over under? 100 losses.

Do an over under for 90 losses. 100 losses is truly awful territory, and the Pirates at least have a few solid major league players in the field as well as a good pen. Nobody is gonna take the over on 100.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Under by a substantial amount. There's no meaningful difference between assuming that this team will lose 100 games and thinking that they will win 95. If some things go drastically bad (injuries, drastic regression for key players), they could collapse, and if some things go incredibly well (Glasnow or Musgrove breakout, Meadows healthy/surging to MLB), they will beat their projections. Bracketing those kinds of contingencies, they are a 79-85 win team.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Anyone feel like waging some thoughts on Glasnow before spring training really gets underway? My view is basically that he should start in the MLB bullpen, barring some kind of especially impressive or disastrous spring (or injury to him or someone else, obviously). I think there's no point in having him in AAA, because he cannot improve on anything there, and would not be ready to step into an MLB role if he needed to be called on.

I want to see a more unconventional use of the bullpen this season, but with Hurdle, I am not going to hold my breath. That basically leaves Glasnow in the position of being an early-season long-man, who might end up either getting an opportunity with the rotation, or else reinventing himself and becoming a backend, high-leverage option (the ideal would be as a multi-inning threat, but we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves).

I think this is the best way forward with him, because he needs to show something against MLB hitters, and neither the eye test nor any metrics really suggest that he'd have success as a #5 starter right out of the gate. I won't rule it out entirely, because his control did seem to improve over his AAA stint, and it's really impossible to tell much from his MLB sample size after that. So, if he comes into spring training and demonstrates very good control, then perhaps you entertain the idea of giving him one last shot.

But otherwise, he needs some kind of MLB experience, and it's a very good guess that there will eventually be starts to be had for whoever is sixth and seventh on the depth chart. To that end, I don't think going to the bullpen is the final word on him as a starter, but prior to seeing or reading anything about spring training, that seems to be the smart decision. Of course, on paper, it should probably be the case that he, Musgrove, and Brault just battle it out for that spot, but I guess what I'm saying is that he'd have to be incredibly impressive for me to opt for him vs. a sole lefty option and a guy with better peripherals in every regard.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Anyone feel like waging some thoughts on Glasnow before spring training really gets underway? My view is basically that he should start in the MLB bullpen, barring some kind of especially impressive or disastrous spring (or injury to him or someone else, obviously). I think there's no point in having him in AAA, because he cannot improve on anything there, and would not be ready to step into an MLB role if he needed to be called on.

I want to see a more unconventional use of the bullpen this season, but with Hurdle, I am not going to hold my breath. That basically leaves Glasnow in the position of being an early-season long-man, who might end up either getting an opportunity with the rotation, or else reinventing himself and becoming a backend, high-leverage option (the ideal would be as a multi-inning threat, but we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves).

I think this is the best way forward with him, because he needs to show something against MLB hitters, and neither the eye test nor any metrics really suggest that he'd have success as a #5 starter right out of the gate. I won't rule it out entirely, because his control did seem to improve over his AAA stint, and it's really impossible to tell much from his MLB sample size after that. So, if he comes into spring training and demonstrates very good control, then perhaps you entertain the idea of giving him one last shot.

But otherwise, he needs some kind of MLB experience, and it's a very good guess that there will eventually be starts to be had for whoever is sixth and seventh on the depth chart. To that end, I don't think going to the bullpen is the final word on him as a starter, but prior to seeing or reading anything about spring training, that seems to be the smart decision. Of course, on paper, it should probably be the case that he, Musgrove, and Brault just battle it out for that spot, but I guess what I'm saying is that he'd have to be incredibly impressive for me to opt for him vs. a sole lefty option and a guy with better peripherals in every regard.

I kind of think barring something unforseen that is about all that can/will happen.

Nova, Williams, Kuhl and Taillon are pretty much set in stone and id think Musgrove has the advantage going in for the last spot.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I bet Glasnow becomes the swing-man this season.

I would love to have the Pirates use him as an OTTO this season to get him some some big league innings, but without the pressure of having to start and go 5+ inning.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, and just to put it frankly, I'm more interested in seeing what Musgrove can do in the NL. Yes, he has struggled in some similar ways, but unlike Glasnow, he's had a bit of sustained success in MLB as a starter, and I think will benefit from the move in leagues. The one thing I worry about with him is whether the Pirates approach to pitching will make him less effective, i.e., less bat-missing.

This may be simply the product of offseason mind-mush, but I think to some extent, it's an ok guess that Musgrove has a solid chance to basically be a Taillon-lite pitcher for us, in pretty short order. He's proven much less, but the elements seem to be in order, and I don't put a whole lot of emphasis on the fact that he went to the bullpen last year, because of both the division and role he was being tasked with, not to mention the Astros depth. If he can become somewhat like Taillon - and making this comparison is both an attempt at praising Musgrove and being a bit measured about where Taillon's ceiling is - then I basically think we'll be in the position of having two solid upper-middle rotation pieces, and a whole sundry of possible back-end options. That leaves us in search of an additional impact arm, and to that end, we are basically waiting on either Glasnow to put some things together, or Keller to emerge.

Given the market, I think you could make a reasonable argument that now is as good a time as any to gamble with some money for an Alex Cobb, since the strategy for this team basically boils down to trying to hang around and win key series / get a push at the right time, and then see what happens if you can make the playoffs. Bracketing the looming threat that for any WC game, you need an offense that's not going to just go completely cold, what you really need to pull that off is depth and consistency at starting pitching.

There's not much point in arguing over Cobb, because there's no chance it's happening, but we're trying to manufacture the pitching from within, and so I think in both the immediate and longer-term, giving Musgrove the first shot is probably wise. If he can be a Taillon-lite, then you at least have two pieces of the equation solved for the next little while, and Glasnow will have some opportunities, and perhaps ultimately be most useful if he can be the kind of pitcher who throws 2.2 shutdown innings at a time for a while.