There are probably a lot of warranted expectations for this series -- minimally, a good road series win against a rival who is seriously scuffling, and likely as good of a chance to fire off the sweep and keep rolling as any we'll get. Toss in an upset or two from the Brewers against the Cubs, and we'll be looking at the possibility of finishing April on top of the three biggest division rivals (and really have a chance to be in the drivers seat with the Cubs, with a home series against them | barring any changes with the off day, the pitchers will be Kuhl, Cole, Glasnow).
As I said, I think these expectations are totally warranted. Nothing is going right for the Cardinals right now, outside of maybe a Rosenthal resurgence and thus a very fine backend of the bullpen if they can get a late lead. It's totally just lapsing into cliche, but the best thing we can hope to see from the Pirates is just more total dominance from the pitching. The offense has heated up to the point where they should be able to score 3-4 runs against these pitchers at minimum. Lynn is always a Pirates favorite, Wacha has velocity again but is completely hittable, and Leake has taken a step back with his stuff, although he's probably the toughest pitcher we'll face. Missing Martinez is a nice boost for us, since he's the type of pitcher who could strike out 12-15 batters when we face him and send the offense spiraling a bit.
In a certain way, I don't know that Nova is the best to open out the series with, since he's proving to be the most hittable of the pitchers, and eventually, that will turn into a so-so start. I've been very confident with him on the mound so far this season, and he should really be able to stay the course and prevent disasters by never walking anyone, but it would be more encouraging if he mixed in some more non-fastballs in order to get the swing and miss numbers up a bit. It shouldn't matter too much against an offense that has fallen into complete quicksand (they are in the bottom five in a bunch of offensive stats), but all the same, I'm not cashing my checks before this series even happens. The Cardinals need a rebound series in the worst way, so hopefully we're ready to meet them and give no quarter. As ever, taking the first game on the road is just such a huge boost, especially when a lot else is going right.
With three righties, you have to figure that Frazier has played his way into a bunch of starts this week. It will be telling to see how cautious we are with Polanco. Groin problems are nothing to joke around with, so better safe than sorry if we have people who are performing well able to play (at least in terms of offensive contribution - Frazier is still more or less a disaster in the field).