Yeah, I get Mike Williams vibes from him when he comes in. Not sure if I want him gone, perhaps a different role. Definitely lower leverage situations. But if they were to move him, I would be OK with that.
OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: New season of plundering begins
- Thread starter Zirakzigil
- Start date
Empoleon8771
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Yeah with Holderman absolutely dealing right now, you can just move Holderman to the closer's role as Bednar rebuilds his stuff.
ChaosAgent
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I only felt remotely secure because I saw Oneil Cruz hit a ball 114 mph at 32 degrees and it not go out. So I knew homering was basically impossible.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
That plus the Cubs bats were downright awful all series. I wasn't super confident at 3-2, but I knew they would win if they'd get a 4th run.
Haha, good point.
Yeah, on the other side, I don't know what the exit velo was on the Bellenger fly out, but we might have been saved on that one.
Yeah was thinking the same, as 4 is our magic number.
ChaosAgent
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So who comes up for Tellez? Bae or Lamb?
I think Bae is annihilating the baseball and deserves to come up. Give Joe the reigns at 1B for a week, with Triolo to spell him as needed.
Go with
Cutch DH
Reynolds LF
Cruz SS
Joe 1B
Gonzales 2B
Hayes 3B
Suwinski RF
Bae CF
Bart/Grandal
I think Bae is annihilating the baseball and deserves to come up. Give Joe the reigns at 1B for a week, with Triolo to spell him as needed.
Go with
Cutch DH
Reynolds LF
Cruz SS
Joe 1B
Gonzales 2B
Hayes 3B
Suwinski RF
Bae CF
Bart/Grandal
With an average offense, the starting pitching should be able to carry them to a .600 record the rest of the way. Even with this offense, it'll be close to .500.
DJ Spinoza
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It definitely makes sense to worry about Bednar, and I think there is a combination of two things going on that makes me worry: (1) he had a bad and slow start to the year, where he really should have been built up somewhere other than MLB; and (2) he has blown some saves and/or lost games recently, and since the sample is always small with relievers, recency bias makes it hard to trust while watching live.
That said, I think the positives are that his velocity is fine and the stuff still seems to grade completely fine. I have not looked closely at numbers (only glancing at RP stuff+ rankings), but I think it's a combination of these two things and less pristine command which make him feel unreliable.
I'm not going to go as far as to say that I am not worried about him while I watch him pitch (I had as little confidence as anyone else today), but I think these things are worth keeping in mind. As for the team, we were basically able to tread water over a tough divisional stretch and hopefully have built some positive momentum. It is going to take a nice little winning streak to get back into the actual mix for the division, but it's at least at arm's length rather than what could have been the case.
I'm still not super optimistic until we show some more consistency and at least turn the page on the absolute dead weight of Tellez. The Cubs have a schedule that is somewhat tough like ours coming up, so I think we can hold pace with them, but unless the Brewers really start to slump, they should be able to build up an even more comfortable lead over the next month or so. Us and the Cubs have the Braves very soon, but the Brewers basically have a more challenging series in early June vs the Phillies and otherwise some very weak opponents. This is looking way too far ahead, but if we are 6 games behind them by the time we meet them next (July 9th), that will feel like a win.
That said, I think the positives are that his velocity is fine and the stuff still seems to grade completely fine. I have not looked closely at numbers (only glancing at RP stuff+ rankings), but I think it's a combination of these two things and less pristine command which make him feel unreliable.
I'm not going to go as far as to say that I am not worried about him while I watch him pitch (I had as little confidence as anyone else today), but I think these things are worth keeping in mind. As for the team, we were basically able to tread water over a tough divisional stretch and hopefully have built some positive momentum. It is going to take a nice little winning streak to get back into the actual mix for the division, but it's at least at arm's length rather than what could have been the case.
I'm still not super optimistic until we show some more consistency and at least turn the page on the absolute dead weight of Tellez. The Cubs have a schedule that is somewhat tough like ours coming up, so I think we can hold pace with them, but unless the Brewers really start to slump, they should be able to build up an even more comfortable lead over the next month or so. Us and the Cubs have the Braves very soon, but the Brewers basically have a more challenging series in early June vs the Phillies and otherwise some very weak opponents. This is looking way too far ahead, but if we are 6 games behind them by the time we meet them next (July 9th), that will feel like a win.
BusinessGoose
Registered User
It makes me much happier when they win
Stay tuned for more ground breaking news
Stay tuned for more ground breaking news
I mean, we (long suffering Pirates fans) will be the most happy if we can get some type of success going.
And this latest trip is tantalizing when we just saw what our starting staff is capable of. It does raise some hope, even if we (again, the tortured among us) are super cynical at this point.
I know for myself, Skenes and Jones will be must watch viewing. They are exciting to watch.
BusinessGoose
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DJ Spinoza
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As always, quoting for continuity/consistency. I'll be honest: this is the first time I've really done more than a quick skim of the previous write-up, because I think things were pretty cut and dry and not much was changing. While it could be argued that is still the case, I think there has been a significant shit in terms of the overall tone and expectations of the team. IMO, this is most reflected in the fact that we went 5-5 over this stretch and it feels like something of a letdown, even though I said above (and I don't think it's presumptuous to attribute the same feeling to others) that I thought 4-6 was the most optimism I could muster. Here's the breakdown:
Starting record: 17-21
Record over stretch: 5-5
Ending record: 22-26
I said this in another reply earlier today, but I think the main takeaway from this stretch of 10 games is that while we came in hobbled and on the heels of a terrible wasted opportunity against some bad teams on the west coast trip, we pretty much played neck and neck with both of the division leaders and really took it to the Cubs this weekend.
The same warts are still prevalent, and we have had some bullpen issues and some issues where a starter basically singlehandedly loses the game for us -- Perez obviously, and probably Priester too.
I'm not going to go microscopic on the stretch of games, but we were certainly robbed of a shot at a win yesterday, and the really big wasted opportunity was Falter's previous start against the Cubs at home last Sunday. Tip both those games to wins and we are tied with the Cubs right now, but that's not the way anything works.
Looking ahead: 3 vs. SFG, 3 vs. ATL (6 home) + 3 vs. DET, 3 vs. TOR (6 road)
As always, this partitioning is just me trying to carve it up as best as I can based on off days. series', home/road, etc. My rationale is always that 6 games is too short, but I try not to stretch beyond 12. The stretch before the one we just finished was a 12-gamer and it was disastrous with 4-8 vs. Oakland, SF, LAA, and Colorado.
This stretch will be really important, because my hunch is that if we can keep the momentum going, we can claw back some ground against the Cubs at least. I like the way that it is set up, with the first 6 games coming at home on the heels of this 3-1 big series win.
It's still time to put up or shut up. Holding serve is ok, but the blown opportunities have really not given us a ton of cushion. It's still too early to be worried about this stuff, especially until the team actually gives us a big reason to think it can make a push, but Milwaukee is 8 games over .500 with a very easy schedule on the horizon. .500 baseball probably causes us to lose more ground, so the baseline needs to be higher even if we are going to need some kind of winning streak or really great stretch at some point no matter what.
I'm not going to say that I think we can do that on this stretch, but we have some momentum and there is opportunity. We get a tough draw in game 1 vs. SF Tuesday, as it's Perez vs. Webb. But if we can steal that game, then we have Jones and Skenes going. Atlanta is going to be tough, but they have dropped two and a row, so maybe we'll get lucky. Pitching will be magnified there since presumably it's Falter, Keller, Perez, but we can cross that bridge when we come to it.
So, I'll cut to the chase: I think we need a 7-5 performance over these games. If we do that, it may not put much of a dent in the divisional situation, but I think we'll be right on the heels of the Cubs, and more importantly we'll show that we can sustain a solid record over a decent stretch of games. 7-5 is 3 series wins and 1 series loss. If we can somehow steal the first game of Perez vs. Webb, then maybe that sets us up for a chance to sweep the Giants, which would make it possible to get greedy for more than 7-5, but for starters we need to take care of business and win a series at home.
Factorial
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Bednar needs to be less concerned about being the "Renegade" (a dreadful song by a crappy band), and more about his personal fitness.
DJ Spinoza
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Caught this from Stumpf, thought I'd share it. Lots of people asking him about Rowdy and he made a comparison to the Tsutsugo situation.
Factorial
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ChaosAgent
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Agree with your thoughts on Renegade. However, I don't mind fat pitchers. It seems logical that the thickness helps preserve their arms
MrBrightside
Registered User
In the 3-WC team era, and in a league where there are basically three actual good teams (Atlanta, LA, and Philadelphia), it gets really tempting after every good stretch to squint, look at the top of the rotation, and think we can be the next Diamondbacks. And maybe we still can, but this offense is nowhere close to being a playoff-competitive team, and there really is very little obvious reason to think that's going to change. I still don't understand why Bae is sitting in AAA while Tellez and Triolo are hitting the way they are, but man it's hard to see where the uptick in offense is going to come from.
sovietsanta87
Registered User
The rotation, as it is currently constructed (and assuming no injuries) is good enough to win a World Series.
Unfortunately the lineup and bullpen are not good enough. In fact they could keep us out of the playoffs entirely.
I get it’s a delicate balance between competing while trying to keep the window open for as long as possible, but they really need to rebalance this organization. Zero corner outfielders. Zero first basemen. 73 middle infielders. It’s why I advocate for a trade with the Rockies. They constantly are in need of pitching. Package one or two pitchers for Veen, Beck, Nolan Jones.
Unfortunately the lineup and bullpen are not good enough. In fact they could keep us out of the playoffs entirely.
I get it’s a delicate balance between competing while trying to keep the window open for as long as possible, but they really need to rebalance this organization. Zero corner outfielders. Zero first basemen. 73 middle infielders. It’s why I advocate for a trade with the Rockies. They constantly are in need of pitching. Package one or two pitchers for Veen, Beck, Nolan Jones.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
Small sample size and all but man Gonzales’ statcast data is even better than his raw numbers:
That average exit velocity of 93.8 MPH would rank 11th in the MLB. Cruz is ranked 3rd at 95.1 MPH as well, so the Pirates look like they may have 2 legit mashers in their middle infield if they can continue this play.
That average exit velocity of 93.8 MPH would rank 11th in the MLB. Cruz is ranked 3rd at 95.1 MPH as well, so the Pirates look like they may have 2 legit mashers in their middle infield if they can continue this play.
DJ Spinoza
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I don't think it's yet a question of whether or not this can be a contending team and don't mean to suggest it is.
I think it's a question of what they can do in the next 12 games. They just went 5-5, which does very little because of the horrid stretch they had been on, and really until we get through the next stretch of games, might still be on.
I am optimistic about the pitching core, as is obvious for everyone, and I think it is going to be enough to prevent another huge tailspin, but it's definitely possible to see the offense managing trudge through a deflating 1-5 home stand.
I would at least like to see the offense with the dead weight gone. I'm not sure Bae or anyone else is going to be able to do this, but swapping out automatic outs for below average MLB production would help out an offense that otherwise doesn't have much margin for error. If the team does want to hang around, then the Tellez patience has to be fully exhausted. I don't think Triolo is going anywhere yet until Hayes can stay off the IL, but we could at least conceivably play Gonzo at 3B and see what Bae can do at 2B.
The other thing that should be in the cards is trading for a corner OF, though the general parity probably makes teams content to just stand pat for the time being rather than start to sell. The Marlins don't really have anyone. Maybe the A's would consider something like getting upside prospects for Rooker, but he's still dirt cheap due to not emerging as a MLB player until later in his career.
There's nothing that would move the needle to considering the team as playoff viable, and the way management has acted also reaffirms this. I think the best case scenario is that they can win enough to stay relevant in the division and WC races in order to be a light buyer at the deadline. The best chance the team has is if Davis gets right in AAA and Suwinski becomes actually playable and not just playable because he was good in previous seasons and there are literally no other viable OF prospects.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
It may me being dumbly optimistic like usual, but I don't see the bats as in that bad of a spot if Shelton would start using the lineups better. I think they clearly need to go outside of the organization to address the 1B position, but I think they have some good hitters for most other positions. At least so far this year, they've been getting good results from quite a few hitters:
-Cruz: 106 OPS+
-Reynolds: 117 OPS+
-Joe: 137 OPS+
-Gonzales (small sample size): 119 OPS+
-Olivares: 106 OPS+
-McCutchen: 103 OPS+
-Bart (small sample size): 131 OPS+
I think the issue is that the guys who aren't hitting well or better (what I'd describe that group as) are just absolutely miserable. The Pirates have 2 players with an OPS+ between 70 and 100, it's just Grandal (78 OPS+) and Hayes (87 OPS+). The Pirates have some good hitters on the team, it's just their bad hitters are truly atrociously awful. I'm good with Taylor and the catchers being bad hitters, but those are the only positions I'm okay with sacrificing offense for defense.
Honestly, just not playing Tellez probably has a significantly positive impact on their hitting as a team. The difference between Joe (137 OPS+) and Tellez (44 OPS+) this year is insanely massive, and even when Joe wouldn't maintain that level as an everyday player, it's still a huge upgrade on how awful Tellez has been. Guys like Triolo and Suwinski have had bad seasons offensively for sure, but even their "bad" isn't anything even close to how awful Tellez has been.
-Cruz: 106 OPS+
-Reynolds: 117 OPS+
-Joe: 137 OPS+
-Gonzales (small sample size): 119 OPS+
-Olivares: 106 OPS+
-McCutchen: 103 OPS+
-Bart (small sample size): 131 OPS+
I think the issue is that the guys who aren't hitting well or better (what I'd describe that group as) are just absolutely miserable. The Pirates have 2 players with an OPS+ between 70 and 100, it's just Grandal (78 OPS+) and Hayes (87 OPS+). The Pirates have some good hitters on the team, it's just their bad hitters are truly atrociously awful. I'm good with Taylor and the catchers being bad hitters, but those are the only positions I'm okay with sacrificing offense for defense.
Honestly, just not playing Tellez probably has a significantly positive impact on their hitting as a team. The difference between Joe (137 OPS+) and Tellez (44 OPS+) this year is insanely massive, and even when Joe wouldn't maintain that level as an everyday player, it's still a huge upgrade on how awful Tellez has been. Guys like Triolo and Suwinski have had bad seasons offensively for sure, but even their "bad" isn't anything even close to how awful Tellez has been.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
Just for laughs, I wanted to see how the Pirates OPS this year would change from taking Tellez's ABs and just giving them to Joe, assuming that Joe would be able to maintain his 137 OPS+. So far this year, the Pirates OPS is at .654 for an OPS+ of 89. If you take Tellez's 128 PAs, here is how their numbers change:
-Slash line with Tellez: .226/.301/353 for an OPS of .654
-Slash line minus Tellez: .229/.305/.362 for an OPS of .667
-Slash line with Joe getting 128 extra PAs: .233/.308/.370 for an OPS of .678
This may not seem that significant, but one player swap along would raise their OPS by about 25 points and would take them from 27th to 20th in league OPS. Joe obviously wouldn't maintain that level, but this is just to show how awful Tellez has been and how large of an impact changing 1 bad player would have on the Pirates.
-Slash line with Tellez: .226/.301/353 for an OPS of .654
-Slash line minus Tellez: .229/.305/.362 for an OPS of .667
-Slash line with Joe getting 128 extra PAs: .233/.308/.370 for an OPS of .678
This may not seem that significant, but one player swap along would raise their OPS by about 25 points and would take them from 27th to 20th in league OPS. Joe obviously wouldn't maintain that level, but this is just to show how awful Tellez has been and how large of an impact changing 1 bad player would have on the Pirates.
ChaosAgent
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I think we see positive regression from:
*Dropping Tellez
*Suwinski - and if he continues to suck we know at least that 2023 Bae would be better
*Triolo -whose playing time is going to be cut regardless
But then negative regression from Joe to an extent -I think he's still an above-average hitter either way.
The remaining upside comes from Cruz and Davis, if he claws his way out of the wilderness.
ChaosAgent
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At the same time is it a coincidence that the pitching run we are on coincided with Grandal becoming the 1C?
We just mentioned Chisholm. Let's say Davis gets halfway there to acquiring him and you add like Peguero and Mueth. We still have Endy coming back next year. We don't have the specter of "is he a catcher, is he not a catcher, can he really not play RF, why can't this dude just take?" Make it someone else's question mark and worry about getting Endy driving the ball again.
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