Two things:
1. No one is advocating to not "stay the course." Again, there are options between "add no one of consequence" and "sign Scherzer and Bauer." Adding a quality veteran arm or two in free agency does not take them "off course," and it's a strawman to suggest that adding some real major league pitching would deviate from the building within the system.
2. You again do what all the optimists do and just project that every prospect of note will make it, be healthy, and pitch well. The idea that all 3 of Contreras, Yajure, and Wilson will be competent, reliable major league pitchers this time next year is a lovely thought and also a completely unrealistic one. The top 3 guys in your projected rotation have started a total of 18 major league games, 16 of those by Wilson (and most of those not well). I absolutely hope that's how things go and I absolutely think they should get the opportunity to stick, but the odds are that at least 1 or 2 of them will get hurt or struggle or both. Brault is nothing more than a lottery ticket - 2022 would be the 5th straight year he'd fall into the "well he's got upside so maybe this is the year..." mode.
I'll add that all of this is just an academic discussion as we all know that they won't add significant pieces this winter even if the post-Polanco payroll is disgracefully low.
1. Please refrain from using the tired strawman word. It was not applicable and is one of the most overused/misused terms in the f***ing English language. Has only sprung to prominence the past 10 odd years, mainly from academia, but I digress. There is too much material based in logic and financial certainty, based on history, to call anything I'm saying a strawman.
2. No I have not and given you are able to shape a sentence to an acceptable level in the English language, know I didn't say that in the post you quoted.
Most prospects don't make it. Literally said that in parts of the post above, and numerous other times as well. I'm almost 40. This isn't my first rodeo with this franchise and I certainly understand how economics work in the current structure of MLB, of which we are in worse position than all but a few teams in the entire league, which is an absolute fact. Now we can debate how unfair the system is, and it is that, for obvious reasons (big market teams like NY and LA don't want competition, just like people in power in business and politics) but this is not a franchise that has the resources to waste on middling FA's which is exactly what you're going to get 8-9 times out of 10 if you're only willing to fork over a few million here and there.
You can't sit there and type away that I'm operating with rose colored glasses and then advocate the team wasting 15-20 million over 2 years on a P, 5 million on an OF, another 5 million somewhere else, in hopes the player, on a contract that won't even keep them here through the next window, will be trade chips or push this team into winning territory (which is 82 games). This team is 100+ losses bad right now. Spending money on castoffs. hopes and dreams is bad business. Sure, you'll hit on a Liriano once in a blue moon but more often than not, it doesn't work that way.
And the difference between THAT and what I would do and hope Ben does, is if we're going to lose in the short term (we are) we should be getting the young players who could potentially help (Park, Castro, Marcano, Chavis of guys that are in MLB/AAA now) playing time. Why are we signing people that will almost surely block those types from getting more looks?
No FA you sign will push this team from 60 some odd wins to 80+. That's a massive ask from low end FA's which is exactly what you're buying at the prices being thrown out.
There is clearly a fundamental difference in how we're looking at the short term. You think that a few low end/modest FA's will push this team into more wins. Even IF that happens, a few more wins does nothing to transform us into a playoff team and going from 60-65 wins to 65-70. It does nothing other than give you a worse draft pick and less bonus pool money, which by the way is where a team like ours is always going to make the most headway in trying to compete. That and development of said draftees.
You spend money at the FA level, in a market like Pittsburgh, when the prospects you've accumulated, mature. The deeper the system, the more ammo you then have to play with when it comes time to add in June/July during a window in which a team is contending. And given the depth of our system, as I've outlined, will produce good and even a few great ML ballplayers. Many won't pan out but when you're pulling from a few dozen legitimate prospects between A-AAA, the reasonable expectation is that 1-2 will be become AS caliber players, a few more will become solid contributors and a bunch will flame out.
We're going to get a slew of talent in the draft again next year. It's up to Cherington's people to train and develop the many great to solid players we've added over the last 18 months. The foundation is absolutely present. The system is loaded. Stay patient. Don't waste resources on people who won't move the needle that much.
