OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[DJ Spinoza]

Well, Morosi is someone who blurs speculation and sourced reporting, but usually he is pretty clear about the divide and is pretty reputable obviously.

Yankees obviously do not make sense as having SP to headline a package, and I have a pretty hard time seeing how a third team could get involved. Maybe the Marlins would, but they have wanted Reynolds for over a year and so presumably the easier thing to do would be to deal with them directly.

I think Cabrera has real upside and Rogers is a good buy-low candidate, but (setting the Yankees aside) that kind of deal would have some big risk attached to it. It's possible you could walk away with a front line starter on the same timeline as Contreras and Ortiz, basically, as well as someone whose stuff likely plays up in PNC Park and is mid-rotation material or even better. There's also always the injury risk, which seems more pronounced with Cabrera.

The Yankees seem like the best fit to me if they are willing to give up multiple top pieces. If you believe Dominguez can be an impact OF in another 1.5-2 years, that's likely a better play given risk+depth. Adding Dominguez and then Crews in the draft would give you two premium OF prospects in a system that only really has one if you assume Cruz will eventually move off SS.

I guess with SP, the other option would be a Dodgers package headlined by Bobby Miller. My immediate reaction is that this might be from BC in order to drum up offers-- i.e., see if the Marlins are desperate enough to start talking about a package headlined by Eury Perez, or if you can get the Yankees more serious about Volpe/Dominguez headlining a deal.

 

[virtualseasontix]

Hi all, long time follower, first time poster.

That Morosi report is very interesting indeed, if only because it doesn’t seem like the top guys (potentially) available in these deals are SP. Potential packages have been speculated here, primarily by DJ who does a great job, but with this new info, my potential targets look like this (team/headliner):

TOR-Ricky Tieddeman
SEA-George Kirby
CLE-Daniel Espino
MIA-Eury Perez

Thoughts on this reported pivot from position player headliner?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I could see it going a few different ways. Trying not to just beat a dead horse, but...:

1) With the Yankees, it simply doesn't make sense unless a third team gets involved or it's a ploy to see whether Cashman ups his offer. If we could get a Dominguez + Peraza headliner with decent third and fourth pieces, I'd probably be fine with the deal.

2) More straightforwardly, it's a ploy to get the teams you mentioned to up their offers with those headliners. I think pretty much all 4 of those guys are enough to start a package off, and I'd rank them SEA // MIA // CLE // TOR in that order, with the biggest gap being between SEA and the rest because Kirby has proven it at the MLB level.

If we're after a starter, there's different kinds of pressure that might be on the teams involved. Seattle is in win-now mode and needs more offensive impact, so getting Reynolds to go along with Teoscar and J-Rod might be enough to push them towards a division favorite type of position.

Toronto is kind of in a similar position as Seattle, with both teams looking to win right now and seemingly near their spending limits. Reynolds looks like the player who could get both of them to that next level, though of course there might be a handful of other options such as some guys on the Diamondbacks.

Cleveland and Miami are also similar to one another in that presumably their main interest in Reynolds is the cost control factor. Cleveland doesn't seem afraid to go big for small bursts, but to me it seems like their path with Espino is to break him in this year and ultimately trade Bieber for a huge haul at some point. Miami will probably spend more money at some point, so maybe the value with Reynolds is both the immediate boost and possible long-term extension. Perez is as good as a SP prospect gets right now, but they certainly have the depth to do it.

The final thing I'd add is that if the rumor is straightforwardly true and not some side looking for an angle, it might be an indication of what the Pirates think internally about Priester. There's been a lot of attention on Reynolds and rightly so, but we're also probably not too far off from the same kind of attention being placed on Keller and to an extent Brubaker. We don't have depth in terms of OF prospects, but the same is true with SP prospects, especially in the upper minors, and it's obviously a cliche in general. I could see the rumor being straightforwardly true for us, but at the end of the day the risk factor makes me prefer the Yankees guys, or some kind of better spread package with the Dodgers and Miller + a position player headliner.

Ps- welcome to the thread, always good to have some fresh voices around!

 

[Empoleon8771]

If they want pitchers headlining the package, I think the Dodgers make a ton of sense with Bobby Miller as the main piece. The Dodgers aren't really spending much money this off-season because they want to reset the luxury tax and make a run at Ohtani next year, but they obviously still want to contend and have some clear holes in their OF. Their OFers right now are Betts, Taylor and Thompson, and I think Thompson is more of a 4th OF type.

Reynolds makes a ton of sense as a cheaper guy in the short term to help them win, and they haven't done anything to replace the big names they've lost this off-season (Bellinger and both Turners).

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I like Miller from everything I've read, but the main thing that worries me about the Dodgers is their supercharged-Rays reputation -- i.e., they've got the financial muscle to go along with the machine system, and when they trade guys, it tends to be because they don't think they are impact guys. That said, Reynolds is kind of an exception because of just how valuable his team control/cost makes him, especially relative to the number of potential suitors.

I understand the pessimism about getting a top shelf return, and I do not fully trust BC to pull it off based on the other top players he's had to trade (though they were less valuable.

For my part, I've waffled a bunch over who knows how many hundreds or thousands of words these weeks, but the longer things drag on this winter, the more I think that the best decision, short of going back to the table with the kind of 7+ year franchise deal that could entice Reynolds (and who knows if that's an option), is to aggressively work out a trade before spring training.

There will still likely be suitors and a high price at the deadline, but there are risks attached with going that route. Even from the most optimistic perspective, we'd need the extraordinary to have any prayer of a WC birth this year. The same is probably true next year, even if there are more possible reasons to be optimistic (for many of them, we won't know until we see how 2023 unfolds). In that light, again absent a big investment next offseason, I see the wisest move as pushing for the premium impact headliner talent we have lacked in every other acquisition.

If you pull it off and hit with Dominguez and Peraza, for instance, then you take a brief short-term hit but probably boost the chances of competitiveness starting in 2024 / 2025, and as lackluster as that is relative to when BC became GM, that just seems like it's the plan.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Morosi kinda stating the obvious here I think.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The other thing worth considering with the Dodgers is that even if the Pirates couldn't pull off Miller, the Dodgers do have quite a few good SP prospects that are just a bit below Miller. For example, Gavin Stone had a 1.48 ERA between A+, AA and AAA after he added some velocity, so he's a 50 FV prospect ranked 97th by Fangraphs right now. Ryan Pepiot had a 2.56 ERA in 17 starts in AAA, and then had a 3.47 ERA in 7 starts in the majors. If you could get both Stone and Pepiot instead of just Miller, I actually think that's a viable alternative.

If you could get Pepiot, Stone and Pages/Busch for Reynolds, I'm actually pretty happy with that return from what I can see.

 

[Empoleon8771]

This is significant because this pushes the Dodgers over the luxury tax threshold for this year, which defeats the purpose of them not spending money this off-season. They'd want to get rid of him to save that money I'd bet.



So they'd owe him about $24 million for next year. If the Dodgers wanted to get out of that money really badly, I'd definitely offer to eat some of that money to get Miller back for Reynolds. If the Dodgers are offering say Pepiot, Stone and other prospects for Reynolds, tell them "we'll eat $12 million of Bauer's buyout if you upgrade Pepiot to Miller" or something like that.

Edit 2: Well, there's also the possibility of acquiring Bauer and keeping him in that deal. Bauer is going to be a PR nightmare and is a downright piece of shit, but he's a one year guy. It might be worth it to boost your return for Reynolds by acquiring him, have him eat innings for you and then let him walk after the year instead of releasing him after you acquire him.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Personally, I wouldn't want to touch Bauer at all. I definitely get the appeal to wanting to glean as much young talent as possible, but I'd say the optics of trading the team's best player because they are too cheap to extend him is already bad enough before adding in a hated player. I think the Dodgers just need to bite the bullet and chuck him. If I had to guess, the only teams who might be willing to touch him are Houston and the Mets.

Setting Bauer aside, Stone and Pepiot would be good headliners if there was a good third piece. I still go back and forth a lot, but I think the absolute best case scenario would be DiPoto caving on Kirby and getting Kelenic and another 1-2 players. Kirby is a comfortable bet to anchor a rotation going forward and at least has enough of a gear to be someone who can act as a #2 guy for you. I'd be surprised if the Mariners would budge on moving him, but their organizational strength has been to produce pitching in a similar way to Cleveland. They have Castillo and Gilbert who can be clear front line guys and they also have a good amount of depth and maybe some ability to get Brash usable in a multi-inning or rotation role. I think they would still have the pitching to be a threat in a playoff series and Reynolds really changes the offensive equation for them.

Second to that would probably be the fence swing with Eury Perez, as the play there is pretty straightforward. With him in tow, you then have Hayes, Cruz, Endy, and all the upper minors possibilities plus Perez, Crews/Dollander, Johnson, and potentially what you can get out of Chandler and Solometo (though Perez and Crews would both probably still arrive faster than these HS guys). The addition of Perez + Crews would be a real 1-2 punch for the 2024 and beyond seasons, where in the meantime you do your best to take swings at WC finishes.

The Yankees are still probably a close third to me right now. I think Dominguez is still a good prospect, though maybe not quite at the level of an impact headline piece. There's a little bit of risk there where he could step forward further depending on the AA showing, and so if the Yankees won't budge on Volpe but would on Dominguez + Peraza, then I think that's a very good starting point for us.

Honestly, I think we probably need the rumors and pressure on teams to ratchet up now that most of the FAs are gone. There might be some holdouts waiting to see what Conforto does, but the time to strike for some team is approaching and Conforto is a big injury question mark anyways. I think it would take desperation before Toronto started considering something like Moreno + Tiedemann, and probably a bit similar for Seattle with Kirby. Maybe somebody like Peguero or Gonzales going back in a Toronto blockbuster could entice them, but Moreno is already a questionable fit even if he's better than Endy and Davis

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Gut feeling reynolds goes today.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

Tomorrow, during the Steelers game.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Another option out for the Yankees.

 

[SomeDude]

Tomorrow, during the Steelers game.

Didn’t the Pirates trade Bell on Christmas Eve? I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if they have a strategy of trading a big name player on a national holiday for less PR backlash.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Didn’t the Pirates trade Bell on Christmas Eve? I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if they have a strategy of trading a big name player on a national holiday for less PR backlash.

Its not 1955. There is zero reason to release bad press when everyone has a phone in their hand.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Trade proposals that make sense entering '23

Free agency is winding down, but we could see the trade market pick up coming out of the holiday season as the rest of the offseason plays out and playoff hopefuls look to further improve their rosters before Spring Training. With this in mind, here are five trade proposals --

www.mlb.com

This proposal has Reynolds for Dominguez, Beeter, Thorpe and Dunham. Dominguez is a 50 FV prospect, Beeter and Thorpe are 45 FV prospects and Dunham isn’t ranked by Fangraphs. Wouldn’t be happy with this deal because it seems like both Beeter and Thorpe are far from the majors.

 

[Pens1566]

Its not 1955. There is zero reason to release bad press when everyone has a phone in their hand.

Still happens though. Political PR tends to do it early friday evenings to minimize impacts.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, that MLB dot com proposal is an awful one - it has Bednar included in it too. BC has a fairly high degree of leverage unless we assume that none of these other teams who are rumored to be interested are in. I am probably repeating myself from above, but Reynolds is a switch hitting, viable CF who would be a top-2 hitter on whatever team acquires him. He's set to make about 30M in arbitration over the next three seasons, which is 6 million less than a guy who we don't even know if he can play the OF and throw anymore just signed for in free agency.

We all went around about this a few pages back, but he's a legitimate extension candidate for many teams as well, which only increases the value. I think in the Yankees case, they wouldn't extend, but the fact that he could be must certainly be in play for teams like Toronto, Seattle, Miami, and others.

I also have the sense that a trade is going to happen pretty soon. I think it's a simple black and white situation where BC has to stay completely firm and demand impact headliners in the deal. For NYY, if Volpe is off the table, then that means Dominguez + someone else, whether it's Peraza or Cabrera. The Yankees either want him that badly or he can go to the Dodgers or half a dozen other teams... I get worrying some, but I don't think it's that complicated.

 

[ChaosAgent]

If we truly want pitching, the Yankees just aren't as good of a destination. If they didn't move Montgomery, Montgomery + Dominguez would be very fair. But they did

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Still happens though. Political PR tends to do it early friday evenings to minimize impacts.

Political pr is completely different than a baseball trade. Political pr can actually impact thing including but not limited to the stock market which is closed over the weekends.

 

[Pens1566]

Political pr is completely different than a baseball trade. Political pr can actually impact thing including but not limited to the stock market which is closed over the weekends.

That was just an example. Everyone releases info when it's most convenient.

But trades will come out as soon as someone outside knows about it.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

That was just an example. Everyone releases info when it's most convenient.

But trades will come out as soon as someone outside knows about it.

I just think theyre fundamentally different situations.

Not only does trade new leak but no org is going to wait and file paperwork so they dont go through until a holiday.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Diego Castillo traded to Ari for an A ball pitcher.

Guy has good numbers but is already 23. Maybe they try to fast track him as a reliever.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

DBacks also taking Gurriel in the deal. As someone who has been adamant about Moreno as a possible headliner for Reynolds, I don't love this, but it does set a real floor for the Reynolds return (if a trade actually happens).

Fair to say that Varsho is a bit underrated and he also has an extra year of control, but he's not as valuable as Reynolds is. It takes two to make a trade, but if Varsho brings back Moreno, then Reynolds brings back Volpe+, Dominguez+Peralta, or similar as a headliner.

 

[Josey Wales]

Pirates have acquired minor league RHP Scott Randall from the Diamondbacks in exchange for Diego Castillo. Randall, 24, had a 3.82 ERA in 21 games (all starts) at High-A last season.

 

[Empoleon8771]

More than anything, that Varsho deal just shows that the Pirates aren't going to trade Reynolds for only a spare parts package. If Varsho is bringing back an asset on par with Moreno, Reynolds will as well.

I don't know if he'd bring back much in addition to that major piece, but the cost for Reynolds from someone like Seattle would be Kirby. A package headlined by Brash and Hancock isn't going to cut it.